Who on earth wants to lay over evens workforce?

I'm not generally a layer but I layed him at 2.04 and 2.06 3 weeks ago.

Granted my last 3 lays were Equiano in the Palace House, Binocular in the Champion Hurdle and Zenyatta in the BC Classic

The race was a month away and he was an evens shot.

Don't trust the Derby form. The horse that came 2nd in that race is a 150 shot here.

The 2nd and 3rd in the Arc last year are against him, as is the Irish Derby winner who beat him in the Dante.

Harbinger is unbeaten this season with the form of his recent wins working out pretty well.

Daryakana has improvement in her going right handed.


I'm probably wrong and he'll probably laugh at them but imo it doesn't add up to an evens shot.

If Fame and Glory or Sariska were in the race I think I'd probably stick with either of those. As they aren't I'm thinking that maybe beating Youmzain will win the race. I think Daryakana will beat him this time. She was 27/1 and the fav was evens, not too difficult a decision.

Not much point in keeping Harbinger at G2 level when he's shown he can handle that level pretty easily. It's time to step up and who knows how good he'll be. I don't think he'll win but he should be more than capable of running well.

As for the clock at Epsom, the pace supplied by At First Sight was a lot better than that supplied by Dixie Music, plus the ground was rock hard on Derby day compared to the official Good on Oaks day.

The proximity of Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch also in the Curragh wouldn't overly worry me either as I'm always willing to forgive a 3 year old a poor run at Epsom. Some handle it, others don't.

I'd be a backer at 2/1, not at evens.

No point in going longer than the market but I am certainly not interested in backing Workforce at evens. Some years the 3yo's turn out to be very good as Sea The Stars was last year but older horses have a better recent record. I am happy to wait and see how the generations compare over the next few weeks.

I think the reason that older horses have a better record than the 3 year olds in recent years is that the quality 3 year olds have not been running in this race. When they have run they have gone well.

shame sea the stars aint running. what a race that would have been and what a joke the flat game really is. when u get a top class three year old like dancing brave, generous or st jovite they tend to dominate the king george. but is workforce in that category? i guess we'll find out. personally i'd rather back harbinger.

good one top div. kind of reminded me of doyen the way he slaughtered his hardwicke field and most progressive. speed guru figgis is also a huge fan.

love the way he travels. can understand the arguments for workforce and lets hope he does turn out to be a superstar, but plenty of derby winners in the last few years who have been equally impressive at epsom (authorized, motivator etc) have dissapointed on their next start.

Several things would make me take on Workforce.

1) Ascot a law unto itself,plenty of horses of varying abilities struggle on that surface (whereas Harbinger has form on the track).

2) Workforce was 'launched' with a sustained run from some way out down the long Epsom straight - completely different style of race awaiting him on saturday (again Harbinger proven in Ascot race).

3) Workforce prepared to peak in the Derby,and by breaking the track record he must surely have had to put in a huge personal effort - as yet we don't know how that will affect him (it may not,but he is odds on).Whereas Harbinger has been building up to his 'peaking' moment,which should come on saturday.

4) The next few days will be interesting but imo there doesn't seem to be overly bullish vibes from the Derby winners camp.

I think the ride Heffernan gace AFS was underestimated tbh. He's ridden in the Derby many times before and is obviously very adept at doing pacemaking duties for the yard. If Workforce had not been in the filed he would have essentiallly micked the race. I am not surprised the horse has been beaten since.

Workforce is indeed a "good horse", but not a great horse. Best alternative 'Harbinger'.....So Workforce Must be a lay UNTIL he has prooved himself "a great horse"

if there is 7 runners I'll place lay him at 1.20 or whatever it might be and hope for the best.

Less Liability ;-)

get the excuses ready workforce backers/fans,thats all were gonna hear is excuses as to why he got beat come saturday evening

people keep crabbing the derby form, but Workforce beat them by 7 lenghts in track record time. If he had scraped home from afs & rewilding by 1/2 length then the devaluing of the derby form would be fair. The acceleration he showed on the camber at epsom was first class.I would fancy him off level weights but getting the 3yo allowance cannot see any of th eolder brigad getting near him.In fact i cant see any of them giving the weight and a beating to cape blanco who is my selection to chase workforce home.

17 YEAR TRENDS

100 Cape Blanco
88 Workforce
68 Harbinger

My speed figures:
Workforce 101 absolute minumum, very conservative estimate. using my usual method I would have to give him 125, which I feel is unreasonable. 101 is very reasonable.
Harbinger 101
Cape Blanco 96

At the weights, I can see the 3yos finishing clear of Harbinger. Workforce should beat Cape Blanco by a few lengths but the paradox about him is that by not running in the Irish Derby it raises question marks about his constitution, although I personally feel that running him at the Curragh would have been unwise in view of the hard race he seemed to have at Epsom.
I agree with those who say that the Derby form must not be belittled due to At First Sight. Heffernan gave him a superb ride, the optimal pace scenario unfolded, and he ran well above himself as others have done in the past eg The Great Gatsby. On a line through either Midas Touch or Jan Vermeer, the Derby form is rock solid. Jan Vermeer has run twice since in 12 furlong group 1s and is clearly a very solid yardstick. The idea that he didn't run his race at Epsom is disproved by the fact that he finished close enough to Midas Touch at the Curragh as well.
If Workforce runs his Derby race, never mind improves on it, he will win like a 1-2 shot. I just feel that Cape Blanco is an each way bet to nothing, with no real doubts about his constitution and well being. The trends speak loudly for The Curragh being a great 'prep' for Ascot. But he's nowhere near as talented as Workforce. I have a feeling Workforce is one of the 2 most talented horses Stoute has ever trained.

t j even if they underperformed, i dont think it has any bearing on saturdays race. Workforce has beaten them 7 lengths + in track record time. Even if he is still at the same level ( be amazed if sir M Stoute not gotten at least 5lbs inprovement in interim) as on derby day he will win this race and should be long odds on imo

watch the derby again then look me in the eye and say workforce will be beaten. a nice break since epsom (when he was still running a little bit green) and so lightly raced, in all likelihood he should improve still. someone said sea the stars should be in the race. now that would be some match up at the weights - I think I'd still be tempted to back workforce at 5/2 the pair.

Tavaris, my speed figures suggest Midas Touch might have run as much as 9 lbs better at the curragh, and Jan Vermeer 6/7. This still makes Workforce clear of Cape Blanco. However, I'm not sure I trust those figures, whereas I do trust the Epsom ones. However, it's not an exact science and I don't want to sound as if I think my figures are infallible. I would like someone to tell me (genuinely) the last King George winner who had not even contested a group 1, let alone won one, before the race, and the last one who had run over further than 12 furlongs in the seasonal run up to the race. I know that hasn't been done in the last 17 years, but, again, I'm not saying that therefore Harbinger can't win - he's a very progressive horse, trained by the best. I just think he should swap places with Cape Blanco in the market.

Workforce was an exceptional Derby winner and he has about a stone in hand of everything else in the King George, with the possible exception of Cape Blanco (based on the Dante form).  Anything above evens represents good value (in my opinion).

I'm perfectly happy to back even money shots. I'd just like them to have less questions about them than I have about Workforce on Saturday.

Totting up:
the track,
Stoute form,
inconclusive Derby,
Dante,
the enigma that is Youmzain,
possible improvement in Harbinger,
Daryakana going right handed,
his lack of experience,
Aidan O'Brien sending Cape Blanco,
and Dar Re Mi running Sea the Stars pretty close last year

I just don't make him an even money shot I'm comfortable with.

maybe tavaris but from my experience however many clever factors you try and weigh up it ultimately comes down to.... whether one horse can run faster than the others.