Who on earth wants to lay over evens workforce?

I'm not generally a layer but I layed him at 2.04 and 2.06 3 weeks ago.

Granted my last 3 lays were Equiano in the Palace House, Binocular in the Champion Hurdle and Zenyatta in the BC Classic

why?

The race was a month away and he was an evens shot.

Don't trust the Derby form. The horse that came 2nd in that race is a 150 shot here.

The 2nd and 3rd in the Arc last year are against him, as is the Irish Derby winner who beat him in the Dante.

Harbinger is unbeaten this season with the form of his recent wins working out pretty well.

Daryakana has improvement in her going right handed.


I'm probably wrong and he'll probably laugh at them but imo it doesn't add up to an evens shot.

If Fame and Glory or Sariska were in the race I think I'd probably stick with either of those. As they aren't I'm thinking that maybe beating Youmzain will win the race. I think Daryakana will beat him this time. She was 27/1 and the fav was evens, not too difficult a decision.

I keep reading Harbinger's form is working out well - but how many horses that he's beaten have run in group 1 races? It would be working out well if he was being aimed at a group 2 race but he's not.

The proximity of Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer to Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby compared to how far they were behind Workforce in the Epsom Derby makes him an also ran.

The second and third in the Arc were behind Fame and Glory in the Coronation Cup, who covered the 1m4f in 2m 33.42s. 24 hours later Workforce covered the same 1m4f in 2m 31.33s. Whatever anyone feels about the form the clock doesn't lie.

It does add up to an evens shot and that's being generous.

Not much point in keeping Harbinger at G2 level when he's shown he can handle that level pretty easily. It's time to step up and who knows how good he'll be. I don't think he'll win but he should be more than capable of running well.

As for the clock at Epsom, the pace supplied by At First Sight was a lot better than that supplied by Dixie Music, plus the ground was rock hard on Derby day compared to the official Good on Oaks day.

The proximity of Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch also in the Curragh wouldn't overly worry me either as I'm always willing to forgive a 3 year old a poor run at Epsom. Some handle it, others don't.

I'd be a backer at 2/1, not at evens.

harbinger is definately worth a try at this level and he should win a gp1 at some stage of his career. however the bottom line is that workforce beat the track record at epasom..does anyone think that at levels harbinger would have finished another 12 lengths ahead? workforce is getting a (totally unfair imo) 12lb and that massively swings things his way. as snow fairy showed at the weekend these 3yo just keep on improving as they mature and i rate workforce a very good bet at evens or 4/5

No point in going longer than the market but I am certainly not interested in backing Workforce at evens. Some years the 3yo's turn out to be very good as Sea The Stars was last year but older horses have a better recent record. I am happy to wait and see how the generations compare over the next few weeks.

I will be dissapointed if he does not win by 3l or more, Id be 4/6 tops.

I think the reason that older horses have a better record than the 3 year olds in recent years is that the quality 3 year olds have not been running in this race. When they have run they have gone well.

since 2003 when 3yo's alamshar and kris kin were first and third only 4 3yo have run in the race. it seems the fashion that top 3yo either go for the irish derby then have a break with the arc in mind or step down in distance like sea the starts last year. that would probably have happened this year as well with workforce but stoute seems to like to target the race.  in 2009 alwaary finished 4th beaten about 4 lengths, and you can hardly put him in the same league as workforce. when they have been given the chance 3yo have run well but that hasent happened very often.

shame sea the stars aint running. what a race that would have been and what a joke the flat game really is. when u get a top class three year old like dancing brave, generous or st jovite they tend to dominate the king george. but is workforce in that category? i guess we'll find out. personally i'd rather back harbinger.

I'm with Mythical - all over Harbinger myself.

good one top div. kind of reminded me of doyen the way he slaughtered his hardwicke field and most progressive. speed guru figgis is also a huge fan.

love the way he travels. can understand the arguments for workforce and lets hope he does turn out to be a superstar, but plenty of derby winners in the last few years who have been equally impressive at epsom (authorized, motivator etc) have dissapointed on their next start.

Wouldn't say Authorized disappointed next time after the Derby, he won his side beating the better horses. He also proved better than the winner at York as did Dylan Thomas.

Several things would make me take on Workforce.

1) Ascot a law unto itself,plenty of horses of varying abilities struggle on that surface (whereas Harbinger has form on the track).

2) Workforce was 'launched' with a sustained run from some way out down the long Epsom straight - completely different style of race awaiting him on saturday (again Harbinger proven in Ascot race).

3) Workforce prepared to peak in the Derby,and by breaking the track record he must surely have had to put in a huge personal effort - as yet we don't know how that will affect him (it may not,but he is odds on).Whereas Harbinger has been building up to his 'peaking' moment,which should come on saturday.

4) The next few days will be interesting but imo there doesn't seem to be overly bullish vibes from the Derby winners camp.

well dissapointing in the sense that after it won at epsom many were hailing it as a superstar (perhaps wrongly) so you could make the same comparison with workforce.

I think the ride Heffernan gace AFS was underestimated tbh. He's ridden in the Derby many times before and is obviously very adept at doing pacemaking duties for the yard. If Workforce had not been in the filed he would have essentiallly micked the race. I am not surprised the horse has been beaten since.

* nicked

Workforce is indeed a "good horse", but not a great horse. Best alternative 'Harbinger'.....So Workforce Must be a lay UNTIL he has prooved himself "a great horse"

True sint, sometimes bare form doesn't allow for a very well judged ride. Workforce's instant acceleration off a good pace allowed him to overhaul the winner and a fast pace with a short straight at Ascot will certainly play into his hands imo. I struggle to rule him out but at the same time I can appreciate Harbinger could also be anything having done very little wrong this season. A very tough puzzle imo :-s

if there is 7 runners I'll place lay him at 1.20 or whatever it might be and hope for the best.

Less Liability ;-)

Also it has to be mentioned that the Stoute machine is finding it difficult to get out of first gear at the moment.

get the excuses ready workforce backers/fans,thats all were gonna hear is excuses as to why he got beat come saturday evening

most definitely lay at evens
currently i'd price it as
harbinger 13/8 (wants fast ground)
workforce 2/1  (won very well but the 2nd is no good)
cape blanco 6/1 (didnt win a great derby)
20/1 bar-  nothing else has won anything recently thats near this class and are waiting for other targets no doubt.

people keep crabbing the derby form, but Workforce beat them by 7 lenghts in track record time. If he had scraped home from afs & rewilding by 1/2 length then the devaluing of the derby form would be fair. The acceleration he showed on the camber at epsom was first class.I would fancy him off level weights but getting the 3yo allowance cannot see any of th eolder brigad getting near him.In fact i cant see any of them giving the weight and a beating to cape blanco who is my selection to chase workforce home.

derby form is very good
i believe that harbinger is very very good
sauntered home at ascot 2.28 secs faster than the handicap later.
130 class and beat barshiba / duncan and for me thats a minimum of 126 all in all and i would have him higher rated than that.
workforce's time verses the handicap on the same day puts him in the same league. harbinger has pace and edges it for me. gl

17 YEAR TRENDS

100 Cape Blanco
88 Workforce
68 Harbinger

My speed figures:
Workforce 101 absolute minumum, very conservative estimate. using my usual method I would have to give him 125, which I feel is unreasonable. 101 is very reasonable.
Harbinger 101
Cape Blanco 96

At the weights, I can see the 3yos finishing clear of Harbinger. Workforce should beat Cape Blanco by a few lengths but the paradox about him is that by not running in the Irish Derby it raises question marks about his constitution, although I personally feel that running him at the Curragh would have been unwise in view of the hard race he seemed to have at Epsom.
I agree with those who say that the Derby form must not be belittled due to At First Sight. Heffernan gave him a superb ride, the optimal pace scenario unfolded, and he ran well above himself as others have done in the past eg The Great Gatsby. On a line through either Midas Touch or Jan Vermeer, the Derby form is rock solid. Jan Vermeer has run twice since in 12 furlong group 1s and is clearly a very solid yardstick. The idea that he didn't run his race at Epsom is disproved by the fact that he finished close enough to Midas Touch at the Curragh as well.
If Workforce runs his Derby race, never mind improves on it, he will win like a 1-2 shot. I just feel that Cape Blanco is an each way bet to nothing, with no real doubts about his constitution and well being. The trends speak loudly for The Curragh being a great 'prep' for Ascot. But he's nowhere near as talented as Workforce. I have a feeling Workforce is one of the 2 most talented horses Stoute has ever trained.

You don't think it's possible Howellsy that both Jan Vermeer (less than 2 week break before it) and Midas Touch (didn't handle the track) underperformed on Derby day?

t j even if they underperformed, i dont think it has any bearing on saturdays race. Workforce has beaten them 7 lengths + in track record time. Even if he is still at the same level ( be amazed if sir M Stoute not gotten at least 5lbs inprovement in interim) as on derby day he will win this race and should be long odds on imo

The WFA greatly favours the 3yr olds at this time of year . Workforce looked a good Derby winner only time will tell if he is a great Derby winner . But Betfair punters ,unlike bookies punters, have a good opportunity to ' find it on the floor ' on Saturday because Harbinger cannot be bombed out of a place . So rather gamble on how good Workforce is 4/9 approx on a Group2 CD wineer looks good with 2/3 pacemakers in the race .
That Harbinger in 'only' a group 2 winner is by choice . After he got injured when fav for the Leger , he has followed the exact path his connections mapped out for him . Gaining confidence in those group 2 romps he would have to fall over not to frame and in Peslier he has a jockey as good as any .

watch the derby again then look me in the eye and say workforce will be beaten. a nice break since epsom (when he was still running a little bit green) and so lightly raced, in all likelihood he should improve still. someone said sea the stars should be in the race. now that would be some match up at the weights - I think I'd still be tempted to back workforce at 5/2 the pair.

Howellsy, don't you think the optimal pace scenario argument for At First Sight's Derby run kind of contradicts the argument that Workforce ran an outstanding time performance?

Tavaris, my speed figures suggest Midas Touch might have run as much as 9 lbs better at the curragh, and Jan Vermeer 6/7. This still makes Workforce clear of Cape Blanco. However, I'm not sure I trust those figures, whereas I do trust the Epsom ones. However, it's not an exact science and I don't want to sound as if I think my figures are infallible. I would like someone to tell me (genuinely) the last King George winner who had not even contested a group 1, let alone won one, before the race, and the last one who had run over further than 12 furlongs in the seasonal run up to the race. I know that hasn't been done in the last 17 years, but, again, I'm not saying that therefore Harbinger can't win - he's a very progressive horse, trained by the best. I just think he should swap places with Cape Blanco in the market.

Thanks for the reply and good luck.

Has anyone got any figures to suggest that WFA is wrong at this stage of the year? Are there any plans to change it?

Workforce was an exceptional Derby winner and he has about a stone in hand of everything else in the King George, with the possible exception of Cape Blanco (based on the Dante form).  Anything above evens represents good value (in my opinion).

i suppose it comes down to whether or not you are happy to back even money shots. from my own personal experience you may get away with one or two but it is hard to make a profit in horse racing from backing runners at a short price.
it becomes more difficult to judge value, you win on a few and backing shorties becomes more and more tempting, practically everything that goes off short becomes attractive, as you become accustomed to a lazy way of thinking.

sorry if i'm babbling too much [smiley:crazy]

I'm perfectly happy to back even money shots. I'd just like them to have less questions about them than I have about Workforce on Saturday.

Totting up:
the track,
Stoute form,
inconclusive Derby,
Dante,
the enigma that is Youmzain,
possible improvement in Harbinger,
Daryakana going right handed,
his lack of experience,
Aidan O'Brien sending Cape Blanco,
and Dar Re Mi running Sea the Stars pretty close last year

I just don't make him an even money shot I'm comfortable with.

Surely he can beat his stablemate in receipt of 12 pounds

maybe tavaris but from my experience however many clever factors you try and weigh up it ultimately comes down to.... whether one horse can run faster than the others.

I was there in 1995 when Lammtara hosed up.

3 year old WFA a big factor but prob just a watching brief.  interesting field

You don't have to have a bet.
Harbinger is a decent yardstick, but 2 runs ago was considered a handicapper. The Derby panned out perfectly for Workforce, and many different aspects will come into play on Saturday, but after beating the Epsom record, I wouldn't be in a hurry to be laying him at evens, handled by a man who clearly has forgotten more than most know about training horses than most.

Summary: I backed him in the Derby, probably won't back him at evens, hope he gags up. This game needs superstars.

What are you on about harbinger was thought to be a handicapper 2 runs ago !! ive never read anything so stupid.....he was thought to be group class before he ever ran, he has never ran in a handicap and has been a group 1/2 horse since last year where the derby was by- passed as it would come to soon for him as Sir M Stoute always considered him the classic late maturing type who will be more of a 4yo..also injury kept him out off the St ledger which happens to be a classic.

Handicapper, what a joker.

the guy was expressing an opinion, which may have been wrong. no real reason to be insulting, other than being in possession of a 12 year old's personality.

true, re reading it i agree.....your comments not insulting at all though !

completley incorrect though. As far as im aware, Harbinger was never considered a handicapper.

I think people have dismissed one horse without thinking.

Dar Re Me

Nearly beat STS, and an absolute machine. At 3.1 to place, surely this is a better bet than taking Workforce, who is a very fine horse, than taking evens on that.

Dar Re Mi even [smiley:crazy]

I must have missed the race where she nearly beat Sea The Stars

AussiInUK Joined: 06 May 10
Replies: 464 21 Jul 10 16:28 

Dar Re Me

Nearly beat STS,

Surely you are taking the absolute pi$$

probably listening to race commentry,by Aussie Jim!

It was for about 2 seconds in the Arc when himself couldn't get out

howsley, golan,shergar,opera house,singspiel,pilsudski,north light,sharastani,shadeed,doyoun,entrpeneur,kings best,howsley if you think workforce is one of stoutes top 2 ever which one of the above is the other

Nick Mordin's picks

3 weeeks ago, he said Harbinger

2 weeks ago he said Dar Re Mi at 14/1

Ivan Yates 2 weeks ago said in his column in the The Wexford People and The Corkman to back Workforce at 5/4 His previous column tipped up Profound Beauty to win the the ATR cup at the Curragh on Derby week-end (meaten at 9/10!)

I will stick with Cape Blanco as Michael Tabor told me on Irish Derby day next stop was the King George. Good enough for me at an e/w price.

Workforce will need to underperform to not win. Of course this is possible as the Derby can take a lot out of a horse, but I think he is a genuine odds on chance as if he is as good as he was at Epsom he wins, and the chances are he will be.

Sterling Morrison     21 Jul 10 09:27 
I was there in 1995 when Lammtara hosed up.

Seem to remember a great fight with Pentire. What a lovely couple of horses they were.

As ever, some keyboard warriors here.

Beaten 27L behind Monitor Closely and 6.5L behind High Heeled.
That's handicap form.

Oh and by the way, it's "St.Leger", not "st. ledger."
If you're going to insult me, please get an education first.

sorry there is absolutely no evidence that anybody involved it the ownership, training and riding of harbinger has ever considered him a handicapper.

this may have been your opinion, but it wasnt a very good one was it?

also you must know that harbinger ran way below form on those two days...that form clearly cannot be taken a face value

The point is that its a Even money shot, these appear every day of the week and there may be better value even money shots elsewhere(and worse), on a value perspective you would either take a chance on Cape Blanco if you think the 3yos are good for getting the WFA, or have a bet on a Harbinger/Dar re mi/Youz com exacta if you have the opposite view.

Whole point being is that ive rarely seen punters  who have a edge on even money shots

ps-no bet race for me, it isnt compulsory

Johnn, by that logic most horses in the field can be considered a handicapper at some point or another.

Wonder how much money Johnn made laying the horse that was beaten a couple of years ago by Straight Forward (last seen finishing 8th off 8-2 in a sha tin handicap) in Group 1s last season?
Like finding it in the street, shirley?

Not as much as I made backing Workforce at Epsom. You lot are so touchy, I almost felt like mfordy for a while there. Teach me to be mischievious. Oh, and as far as the "handicapper" jibe goes, was for the benefit of a forumite who posts on the ABC thread, but obviously hasn't read it, if he had - I'd have him hooked in the gullet by now

Beaten 27L behind Monitor Closely and 6.5L behind High Heeled.
That's handicap form.

Rated 112 at those beatings (and not right for the first one)- some handicapper [;)]

This was quite a good thread

Anyway, race changes a bit with Ballydoyle not running a hare. Not that sure that Confront will even get to the front.

Is the Ballydoyle pacemaker injured?

Could they not supplement in something else, or are they just trusting Stoute's to set pace to suit them.

All very odd.

cape clanco making the running would be fine for this horse, so
thats possible imo.

Not really sure it's in Coolmore's interest to supply the pace. Stoute has the fav and 2nd fav, let him supply it.

this is not a 2/3 horse race as the betting suggest. heres my view.

YOUMZAIN  always the bridesmaid but is always considered finishing second to zarkava and sea the stars giving them both weight. also DIDNT get the arc when hampered by dylan thomas. is work force in the affore metioned catagory.   not yet.

DAR RE MI.  Genuine group 1 performer who had the eclipse as a prep.

DARYAKANA   my view is she has taken time to come to herself since sha tin but again she is unbeaten going right handed and although she has finished third in her last 2 races she hasonly been beaten noses and heads.

my point is these are three genuine group one horses 14 to 1 and bigger who all they have to beat is a one race worder a good not great group 2 performer and a soso aiden horse.

this is a great betting oppertunity at tasty odd.

i will taking on workforce and harbinger for place money and betting DARYAKANA big with savers on youmzain and dar re mi.

1st time poster, I did not say Workforce was one of Stoute's 2 best ever horses. he has a lot to do to earn that tag. I said he MIGHT be one of the 2 MOST TALENTED horses Stoute ever had. This fella had a single juvenile start, which is at least one fewer than most Derby winners. He then lost his only prep run at 3 - the Dante, from which no beaten horse had ever gone on to win at Epsom. Not many horses could overcome this sort of prep, yet he won spectacularly, by 7 lengths, breaking the track record.

someone having fun with their backs and lays [:D]

Win only - Sp only
   
madness, these people deserve to go skint, what has it got to beat?

backing the field at odds on, are you bonkers? 

How do you feel now ?
















madness, these people deserve to go skint, what has it got to beat?

backing the field at odds on, are you bonkers?

kstick Joined: 14 Aug 08
Replies: 86 24 Jul 10 16:38   


Win only - Sp only
   
madness, these people deserve to go skint, what has it got to beat?

backing the field at odds on, are you bonkers? 

How do you feel now ?

SKINT

some handicapper that harbinger

mickstick and unclepuncle, no need for aftertiming. Condsidering you could lay 1.77 on the off i would hazard that although I called the race bank wrong, I was correct about the price.

*bang wrong

handicapper 3 runs ago now imo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8fwc25nKws

I came within a gnats c0ck of sticking 2pts on Workforce but decided to leave it.

Johnn, I think people took offense to the handicapper comment because it was just complete nonsense. Anyway, it is just an opinion on one race and there'll be a thousand more.

I was bored in London on business, and was trying to hook unluckystu, who is connected to the horse in breeding terms. At the Voltiguer last year I was ribbing him that it was only a handicapper. That's where it all came from.

Ok I see 

7/4 for the Arc now.

still Sariska for me.

Unfortunately I hooked a few others

2.7 w/o the fav was a fair bet on here, someone was determined to take him on in all the markets....

jan_vermeer Joined: 23 May 10
Replies: 912 20 Jul 10 18:18 
get the excuses ready workforce backers/fans,thats all were gonna hear is excuses as to why he got beat come saturday evening
 

ste u rascal