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EastLower Gooner
19 Jul 10 14:21
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Date Joined: 09 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 9,634 | Blogger: EastLower Gooner's blog
Been an amazing season for them considering whats gone on the last few years.

2 group1s on the weekend with Campanologist and Buzzword.

Al Zaroni looks top notch...never couldve seen Buzzword winning a g1 over 12f and that was mightly impressive yesterday.

Splitting the team into two and letting Johnston and Fabre handle more horses seems to have work big time for them.
Pause Switch to Standard View Godolphin Resurgence....
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Report hippie July 19, 2010 3:02 PM BST
It's nothing to do with resurgence. They've always tried farming the p!ss easy German middle distance group 1's that come thick and fast this time of the year. Neither of those horses are good enough to win group 1's in England, France or Ireland.
Report AussiInUK July 19, 2010 3:04 PM BST
The trainer change will see them win a fair few. NQAT
Report Tiswallaceno7 July 19, 2010 3:06 PM BST
German Group races....

if anything that gives you a indication of where this global operation has fallen in Europe
Report Graeme83 July 19, 2010 3:57 PM BST
They ain't having a good season by any stretch of the imagination.
Report sintonian July 19, 2010 4:08 PM BST
Agree.

I think it is quite sad tbh that they dont have a horse,just one, good enough to win G1 over here.
Report A_T July 19, 2010 4:18 PM BST
What's happended to Rewilding and Cutlass Bay?
Report rhinestone July 19, 2010 4:34 PM BST
A_T:-

Rewilding being aimed at the Leger.
Report the istabraq years July 19, 2010 4:55 PM BST
rewilding ledger winner imo
Report rhinestone July 19, 2010 5:23 PM BST
Grin
Report AussiInUK July 19, 2010 5:24 PM BST
Rewilding must be a could hoss
Report McK30wn July 19, 2010 9:50 PM BST
they still have passion for gold to run this season supposably only back in work now as i bet it for derby but got injured, as well as kingfort
Report Pret a Gagner July 19, 2010 10:06 PM BST
Burj Nahar will be out in the next couple of months :)
Report A_T July 19, 2010 10:07 PM BST
One thing I will say about Godolphin they are open about targets for their horses supplementing if necessary and do not flood races with superfluous entries designed to confuse.
Report ben10 July 20, 2010 11:34 AM BST
Nothing wrong with the quality of the German Group 1s. Wiener Walzer was 2 lengths of the Eclipse winner and a horse who got within a length of Goldikova. Zazou wasn't far behind the French Guineas/Derby winner Lope De Vega and looked certain to improve for the step up in trip. Good work from Godolphin imo.
Report EastLower Gooner July 20, 2010 12:08 PM BST
Indeed....Buzzword might be the no1 for the St Leger not Rewilding.

better tactics than at Ascot. Made full use of his stamina this time and had too much in the tank for when Zazou went to win his race.
Report hippie July 20, 2010 12:11 PM BST
There's everything wrong with the German Group 1s. They're Group 2s in everything but name.

Campanologist will now follow the path Eastern Anthem took last year: Rheinland Pokal, Preis von Baden and Preis von Europa. Eastern Anthem took 3rd, 2nd and 2nd in those races. The winners: Wiener Walzer, Getaway and Jukebox Jury would be Group 2 horses everywhere except Germany.

If Campanologist pulls it off he'll be a quadruple Group 1 winner although he's a Group 2 horse at his best in the UK.
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 12:32 PM BST
I'm afraid that's nonsense, hippie.

It's bloody hard to win Group races in Germany as many English/Irish/French trainers have discovered to their cost.
Report hippie July 20, 2010 12:36 PM BST
I'm providing facts to back up my statements and can provide lots more.

"that's nonsense" and "it's bloody hard" doesn't cut it.
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 12:39 PM BST
How would you like me to provide a measure then, hippie.  There's lots to choose from.  Shall we look at the Grosser Preis?
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 12:41 PM BST
You may also be confused by facts and opinion.  Your 12:11 post has much of the latter, hippie?
Report hippie July 20, 2010 12:55 PM BST
Nothing you've posted suggests you want a sensible discussion about German horseracing.

You just want a pissing contest.
Report ben10 July 20, 2010 1:04 PM BST
Campanologist has definitely improved this year, took a Group 2 at Meydan and his first Group 1 is definitely a step up.
Report A_T July 20, 2010 1:06 PM BST
The average ratings of Group 1 winners in Germany relative to British winners might be informative.
Report EastLower Gooner July 20, 2010 1:14 PM BST
Btw this is getting away from initial point of this season being a turning point for them.

Changes had to be made, they made them, its working.
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 1:14 PM BST
Here is the race rating for the 2009 Grosser Preis, hippie - 121
Here is the 3 year average rating for the race - 119.83

Now, some say German G1s would be average G2s anywhere else....so let's look at the BEST Group 2 races from England, Ireland and France in the same period.

Best British G2 in 2009 - Sandown Mile. Rating - 117.50
Best British G2 3 yr average - Ascot Summer Mile. Rating - 115.42

Best Irish G2 in 2009 - Derrinstown Trial. Rating - 112.50
Best Irish G2 3 yr ave - Derrinstown Trial. Rating - 112.25

Best French G2 in 2009 - Prix Foy. Rating - 118.50
Best French G2 3 yr ave - Prix Foy. Rating - 117.58

So, it is quiet apparent that this German G1 knocks the spots off the very cream of European G2s.  In fact, it is an insult to be comparing them as the Grosser Preis Von Baden remains in the top 20 races in the world on thoroughbred rankings, as it has been for quite a while.

It is also interesting to note the best German G2 of the last 3 years has an average race rating of 115.67, which compares favourably with the standard across Europe.

What's a 'pissing contest' hippie???
Report EastLower Gooner July 20, 2010 1:17 PM BST
Jukebox only just got touched off in the Canadian International. another top quality g1.

Also have to look at the fantastic recent record of german horses competing in french group races. Excellent stuff.
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 1:22 PM BST
They nearly won the Arc three years ago with a horse who was being spanked by Adlerflug and Kamsin at home, ELG. 'Group 2' indeed..... Shocked
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 1:23 PM BST
....and I agree, ELG.  The boys in blue are back and racing's much the better for it.
Report A_T July 20, 2010 1:35 PM BST
They are certainly doing well targeting races abroad but as far as the British based operation in concerned let's be in no doubt British/French/Irish big races are the cream and Godolphin are not winning them.
Report Tiswallaceno7 July 20, 2010 1:41 PM BST
No runner in the King George this weekend.

Thats where the bar is set

Galileo vs Fantastic Light was one of the Great races

Now they can't even muster a 100/1 shot rag or a horse even worth its salt in such a race
Report hippie July 20, 2010 2:20 PM BST
The Sandown Mile wasn't the best British Group 2 in 2009.
What 3yo averages have to do with the Grosser Preis Von Baden only you know.

The GPVB made it into 19th place on thoroughbred rankings last year. The years before that it was 23rd (2008), 45th (2007), 105th (2006), 56th (2005) - that's hardly remaining "in the top 20 races in the world on thoroughbred rankings, as it has been for quite a while."

In each of those years the best Group 2 figures in England would have been good enough to win the GPVB: 121, 122, 119, 118 respectively. Last year's best Group 2 figure (119) would not have been good enough to win the GPVB but the winner (Getaway) was still never good enough to win a Group 1 in any other country.

This German G1 doesn't knock the spots off the very cream of European G2s.

Based on figures already mentioned your best German G2 of the last 3 years does not compare favourably.

If you do initiate a pissing contest make sure your figures are correct instead of making them up.
Report ben10 July 20, 2010 2:33 PM BST
As you've shown you need to be better than a Group 2 horse to win the race, therefore these races aren't p!ss easy to win. The King George is obviously the best middle distance race this month but Campanologist's race is still a challenging Group 1 and the form of the race looks worthy of a Group 1 with the horses in there all capable of running big races in Group 1s throughout the World.
Report hippie July 20, 2010 2:34 PM BST
my mistake, I misread - it's 3 year averages rather than 3yo averages.

It's still rubbish though.
Report Equimine.co.uk July 20, 2010 2:49 PM BST
I have quickly run Group 1 numbers through my database.

From 1996 onwards based upon 1048 Group 1 races, for horses aged 3 or over (excluding 2 year olds is obvious) the average winning rating is as follows:

Globally (exc. Germany) 114
Germany                 106
Report hippie July 20, 2010 3:17 PM BST
ben, what I've shown is that, generally, you don't need to be better than a Group 2 horse to win the race. Piss easy may be dismissive but it's in relation to other Group 1s throughout Europe.

Incidentally, the best Group 2 rating of 2009 (119) was achieved by Bronze Cannon in the Hardwicke Stakes. He beat Campanology.
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 3:28 PM BST
The Sandown Mile wasn't the best British Group 2 in 2009.
Yes it was, according to the European Pattern Committee.  Maybe your figures are more official than that, though, hippie?  Anyway, if you'd like to tell the class which British G2 you think was the best I'll tell you the race rating and where it really sits in the 2009 table.

What 3yo averages have to do with the Grosser Preis Von Baden only you know.
Oh dear. Not 3-y-o average.  Three Year Average (as you have just deduced).  It is the rolling figure that all European Pattern races are judged on.  There appears to be a degree of ignorance here regarding the mechanism of European Pattern races, such as how they are rated, who rates them and what the ratings are.  If you would like me to provide further insight into this, such as the parameters for various sections and how races are upgraded or downgraded, feel free to ask.

The GPVB made it into 19th place on thoroughbred rankings last year. The years before that it was 23rd (2008), 45th (2007), 105th (2006), 56th (2005) - that's hardly remaining "in the top 20 races in the world on thoroughbred rankings, as it has been for quite a while."
Fair cop - I made that very last bit up.  It is still quite evident to anyone who can count that the GPVB performs to a higher level than any G2 in Europe and, as stated, it is an insult to compare them.

In each of those years the best Group 2 figures in England would have been good enough to win the GPVB: 121, 122, 119, 118 respectively. Last year's best Group 2 figure (119) would not have been good enough to win the GPVB but the winner (Getaway) was still never good enough to win a Group 1 in any other country. 
I haven't a clue what figures you're computing, hippie, but they are not the ones, agreed by European Handicappers, that European Pattern races are judged on officially.  My stats are rock solid and can be found in the 2010 European Pattern Book - an excellent publication and one you'd do well to track down. As a taster, I can exclusively reveal the highest single rating awarded to any 3-y-o or 3-y-o+ G2 in GB covering 2007, 2008 and 2009 was the 2008 Dante, which was awarded an end-of-season rating of 118.75.  During that period there were 121 G2s awarded a rating in Britain yet, even accounting for that freakishly high number in the Dante, none of them could match any of the GPVBs in the same period.  You are flogging a dead horse.

This German G1 doesn't knock the spots off the very cream of European G2s.
If it was demoted to G2 level it would be the best G2 in Europe by a margin.  I think we can now safely say it does knock the spots of them, hippie.

Based on figures already mentioned your best German G2 of the last 3 years does not compare favourably.
This is a simple exerice of working out which numbers are biggest.  We're in trouble if that's proving difficult.   

If you do initiate a pissing contest make sure your figures are correct instead of making them up.
Firstly, what is a pissing contest?  Secondly, have I won yet?  And thirdly, if "my" figures don't match the ones available in the Hippie Beginners' Guide to European Flat Racing speak to HRI, France Galop, BHA, the Direktorium and UNIRE.  I've played no part in them. Thanks.

(Hardwicke btw - 113.50.  Miles off the pace.)
Report hippie July 20, 2010 3:48 PM BST
my figures are "the official end of season assessments of the top thoroughbred racehorses" so yes my figures are more official than yours.

get over yourself.
Report hippie July 20, 2010 3:57 PM BST
2009 WORLD THOROUGHBRED RANKINGS

Rank: 65 Rating: 119 Cat: L Surface: T Horse: Bronze Cannon (USA) Sire: Lemon Drop Kid (USA) YOF: 2005 Sex: C Trainer: J.H. M. Gosden  Trained: GB Position: 1st Race: Hardwicke Date: 20th June Group: 2 Distance: 2400 Race Run: GB
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 3:58 PM BST
Nothing you've posted suggests you want a sensible discussion about German horseracing.  You just want a pissing contest.  I'm providing facts to back up my statements and can provide lots more. The Sandown Mile wasn't the best British Group 2 in 2009.  My mistake, I misread - it's 3 year averages rather than 3yo averages.  It's still rubbish though.  This German G1 doesn't knock the spots off the very cream of European G2s. My figures are more official than yours.

...and finally

get over yourself.

Laugh
Report hippie July 20, 2010 4:01 PM BST
take your argument to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities.

You obviously know better. Mug.
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 4:03 PM BST
Name-calling now......

WEIGHED-IN
  Laugh
Report hippie July 20, 2010 4:04 PM BST
http://www.ifhaonline.org/resources/2009Rankings/2009_WorldRankings.asp
Report hippie July 20, 2010 4:07 PM BST
calling you a mug is hardly name calling.

for those people interested in the truth of what's being said:

http://www.ifhaonline.org/resources/2009Rankings/2009_WorldRankings.asp
Report Equimine.co.uk July 20, 2010 4:13 PM BST
AT,

Re:The average ratings of Group 1 winners in Germany relative to British winners might be informative.

I have quickly run Group 1 numbers through my database.

From 1996 onwards based upon 1048 Group 1 races, for horses aged 3 or over (excluding 2 year olds is obvious) the average winning rating is as follows:

Globally (exc. Germany) 114
Germany                 106

Forgot to put in the GB number:

Great Britain           119
Report Yank July 20, 2010 4:23 PM BST
Marienbard. Godolphin, won German G1 before winning Arc.
Report hippie July 20, 2010 4:30 PM BST
What's the point of buying expensive books if you don't know how to use them properly?


EUROPEAN PATTERN COMMITTEE (EPC)

GROUND RULES
(Effective from 1st January 2003)

1. GENERAL RULES FOR RACES IN THE EUROPEAN PATTERN

Every race in the European Pattern must conform to the following rules:-

    * It should have no indigenous conditions.
    * It must have a permanent element in the title, to which a prefix or suffix may be added.
    * It must justify its grouping by the quality of its runners, assessed primarily by its Pattern Race Rating.
    * A Pattern Race Rating is the average of the Annual Ratings achieved by a race over a three-year period. The Annual Rating is the average of the official ratings, as agreed by the ICC, of the first four horses to finish plus, in respect of all races restricted to fillies, an allowance of 3lb for races restricted to 2 year olds and 5lb for all other races.

http://www.horseracingintfed.com/aboutDisplay.asp?section=7&file=4


LaughLaughLaugh
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 4:44 PM BST
The annual rating of a race is indeed caluclated by taking the end-of-season ratings of the first four horses to finish.  Over jumps, it is the four top-rated declarations.  This seems to have amused you, hippie?!? Laugh
Report hippie July 20, 2010 5:14 PM BST
"What was you assessment of the Hardwicke, Mr Handicapper?"

"I've given Bronze Cannon a provisional rating of 113.5 but I may revise that later to 113.72."

LaughLaugh
Report The Headmaster July 20, 2010 5:32 PM BST
One of us can't read and it ain't me, hippie.  Anyway, I'm off for a drink with the secretary of the EPC now.  I'll feed your thoughts back to him ysfc!
Laugh
Report hippie July 20, 2010 5:43 PM BST
ysfc?

You had to have your pissing contest and you made yourself look a complete tool. I'd be too embarrassed to post here again if I had done what you did. It never seemed strange to you that "your" handicapper kept given fractions as ratings?
Report JOSE93 July 20, 2010 8:49 PM BST
Have I really just read through a thread that takes average ratings of pattern races across Europe seriously? The ratings are done by a committee which has to make sure each country has a reasonable distribution of Group and Listed races. 

Thursday, 5 February 2009: The Italian Derby, which has been run as a Group 1 race ever since the Pattern system was implemented in the early 1970s, has been downgraded to Group 2 status.

The race has been facing the axe for some time as Group 1 events are, according to the European Pattern Committee rules, meant to achieve an average end of season official handicap rating of 115 for the first four home - something the Capannelle showpiece has not managed since 1993.

The Italian Derby was last year reduced in distance to 1m3f and moved to the second Sunday in May. It will remain at the same trip this term but has been moved a further 24 hours to Saturday May 9, presumably in an attempt to avoid a clash with Serie A football matches.

However, the race will remain Italy's most valuable by a considerable margin. Indeed, its total prize money of 814,000 euros (£790,291) is almost three times that of any of the nation's seven Group 1 races for 2009.


Does that not tell you something? It took them 16 years to finally downgrade a race that wasn't good enough. The whole pattern system is a mess. The bar of 115 has always been too low and always will be.
Report Shark12 July 20, 2010 10:57 PM BST
An interesting debate here. Whatever the merits of the German Group 1 races, any pot that sheds out £256,000 to the winner is worthy of a shot at.

Plenty of other British & Irish trainers have tried, and failed, to win this in the past and so to say its easy pickings is really a bit silly. Im sure that if St Nicholas Abbey had won this by 10 lengths then certain people on here would be drooling over the 'superb performance of the horse' and the 'shrewdness of the trainer' to pick up an easy £256,000.

If things had worked out differently Al Zarooni could have had an Irish 1000 Guineas & Irish Oaks winner to go along with his German 2000 Guineas and German Derby winner in his yard - not a bad haul for a 'reserve' trainer in his first full season.

That said, Godolphin have disappointed me so far this season. I had high hopes of them after 2009's whopping haul of 78 2yo winners, but alas they dont appear to have a decent 3yo again this year (transfers from Fabre excluded).

A question that Simon Crisford needs to answer is:

Where on earth are Burj Nahar, Zeitoper, Long Lashes, Modeyra, Mendip, Sahara Kingdom, Sand Vixen (injured), Passion for Gold (injured), Kingsfort (injured), Vale of York (injured)....and Ibn Khaldun, Rio de la Plata, Gladiatorus, Eastern Anthem, Mastery, Kirklees, Evasive, Darley Sun, Delegator....all perfectly decent animals and it would be utterly criminal if all of them are injured.

To add to this you have to ask yourself where all the Dubawi and Shamardal 2yos and 3yos are? I dont think they have run a single Dubawi or Shamardal 2yo this year and a load of the 3yos have gone to Mark Johnston....what is going on?

Godolphin - sort your act out please otherwise Coolmore will have another 5 years of domination and above everything else, i dont want that.
Report The Headmaster July 21, 2010 12:16 AM BST
As the old saying goes, hippie, when you're in a hole...stop digging. 

It never seemed strange to you that "your" handicapper kept given fractions as ratings?

What was you assessment of the Hardwicke, Mr Handicapper?"

"I've given Bronze Cannon a provisional rating of 113.5 but I may revise that later to 113.72."


You seem to be confusing one race (the Hardwicke) with one horse (Bronze Cannon).  Go back and check how races are rated.  We've both posted how it's done so if you don't believe my words, read yours instead. Dear oh dear. Plain
Report Tavaris Jackson July 21, 2010 12:37 AM BST
Whatever happened to Fast Company?
Report Shark12 July 21, 2010 8:04 AM BST
"Fast Company" - indeed, another one to add to the list.

Thought of another too - Jealous Again.
Report neill d July 21, 2010 2:07 PM BST
That is a huge amount of horses, all group 2or 3 horses at least.
Report Tiswallaceno7 July 21, 2010 2:30 PM BST
Shark very interesting observation about the Sharmadal's and Dubawi.

They have made very very good starts to stallion careers yet Godolphin don't have any of their produce flying the flag.

Interesting
Report Equimine.co.uk July 21, 2010 2:48 PM BST
Shark,

I am not sure if we are viewing things from the same perspective.
However, based upon live foals Shamardal had 98 and Dubawi had 101 that would be this season two year olds.
Darley mares had 8 and 12 respectively. Naturally, there are a number of other "Godolphin" associated/owned mares, such as Rabbah Bloodstock, who have Shamardals' and Dubawis'.
Report Shark12 July 21, 2010 6:11 PM BST
Equimine, those are interesting stats and I would hope that we will see more of their progeny out later in the month and through August.

But you have to ask why, given both of the sire's success last year, Godolphin havent had more 2yo runners so far. 1 x Dubawi 2yo (Dortmund) and 2 x Shamardal 2yos (Al Sharood and Ragsah). That is poor for most exciting (and on the face of it very promising) sires.

Neil M - you make a good point, the list I made was not exhaustive by any stretch of the imagination but they are all at least Group 2 standard...how many weak Group 2s have been missed so far this season?
Report Equimine.co.uk July 21, 2010 7:11 PM BST
Shark,

Whilst I appreciate the point you make concerning last year for Dubawi and the year before for Shamardal you must remember the progeny we are discussing were conceived in 2007 and born in 2008, before any horse of either sire had seen a racetrack. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.[;)]
As of 5 July only 18 Dubawi progeny (2 yr olds) had seen a racetrack and 7 for Shamardal. All two year olds are behind this year, and the higher quality are, to my mind (and others) not out yet due to the fast ground.
Report Shark12 July 21, 2010 7:31 PM BST
Equimine, you make a fair point but if the Maktoums wanted to run plenty of Dubawi's and Shamardal's 2yos this year, then through one avenue or another (predominantly the market place), they would have done.

Not so long ago their bloodstock team purchased every available Dubai Millennium 2yo. Im not suggested circumstances are similar but im sure you can appreciate what can happen once the will is there.

The Dubawi & Shamardal issue aside, there still is a gaping hole in their ranks when you consider the list of known horses who havent been seen at all this year....where are they??
Report Equimine.co.uk July 21, 2010 7:56 PM BST
Shark,

The DM position was a "one off" and to my mind irrelevant.

Why would Sheikh Mo want to run horses that are not bred to be precocious two year olds as if they were?

Surely this would only amplify the problem of horses, such as those you refer to,well bred, with potential, disappearing off the radar due to racing too early in their careers?
Report Black Sam Bellamy July 21, 2010 8:11 PM BST
Godolphin Resurgence...? They are worse than ever to my mind.
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