Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Well, not for the first time I have completely misread the market here. Memory was trading for a long time in the 1.90's, there were plenty of early layers, and I expected her to drift out to even money or a shade of odds against. Instead, she has been backed in to around 1.76, with several of the smaller bookmakers offering a meagre 8/11 (1.73). We'll see whether any of the 'big three' are brave enough to offer 4/5 (1.80). I'm a bit surprised by the strength behind the favourite: after all she has started slowly in both her races to date, she only just got up last time at Ascot, and she shapes as if a step up to 7f will suit her. She can't afford to start slowly today: Newmarket's July course is a much easier track than Ascot and the smaller field could lead to a steadier pace (and a more tactical race) than she encountered in the Albany. If there were eight runners I think the two outsiders would be good each-way value at around 33/1. Basically, the favourite is shorter than she should be, and the outsiders have a better chance than the odds suggest. Any thoughts?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 17
|
By:
Perhaps you can get out in-running James? Other than that she looks like winning this and won on merit last time.
|
|
By:
jsp,
I am sure you will be able to trade "in running" if you wish as I believe Memory will be outpaced certainly initially, possibly overall. Her full brother Kafuu is a 7 furlong horse, her dam won over a mile at two in France. D/Dancer's are of course flexible trip wise, but overall I think she could find this too sharp, especially if turning into a sprint finish. Tanfeer interests me and I am trying to get a clearer view in my mind of her pedigree strengths. Soraaya looks overpriced, a half sister to Declaration of War by a reasonable two year old sire. I would have a bet on Soraaya with 8 runners! |
|
By:
I certainly think there's a chance that Memory could get outpaced today (even if she starts on level terms). She doesn't show much at home, she started slowly and got outpaced at Ascot in a fast-run race, and shapes like she needs further. Over this sharper track she could be found out.
Favourites have quite a good recent record in this race (five wins in the last 12 years, including two Albany winners and one Albany runner-up), but there have been a few surprise winners: Wannabe Grand 11/1, Torgau 12/1, Dora Carrington 12/1, Spinola 7/1, Donna Blini 12/1, Please Sing 14/1. With the odd exception (most notably Attraction) this race ususally falls to a specialist sprinter rather than a prospective miler. |
|
By:
The 'big three' are all offering 8/11 or 4/6, so it definitely looks like a 'lay' at current odds (with a view to trading in-running).
|
|
By:
I think it's wishful thinking. I won't have a bet, but really can't see past the favourite on this occasion.
|
|
By:
There's a bit of strength behind both Hooray and Radharcnafarraige. Tanfeer has been quite weak. The sticking point for Memory is currently 1.80, and Serena's Pride has been backed to small amounts whenever she drifts out to 40.
|
|
By:
Memory has drifted to 11/10. I still think she will do it though.
|
|
By:
Nice
 |
|
By:
Almost 6/4 at the off!
That was very very impressive. |
|
By:
Bunch finish promising but no proff she is a world beater yet imo.
|
|
By:
8/1 joke price for a filly at this stage.
|
|
By:
5/1 sly bet
|
|
By:
Almost guaranteed to stay a mile and as good a turn of foot as you will see.
|
|
By:
Well, it was an impressive performance. She was way too short at 8/11 this morning but a shade of odds against was about the right price. She was entitled to win comfortably on the basis of her earlier form and she did nothing to warrant being cut to 8/1 for the Guineas. Undoubtedly a smart filly, but not an 8/1 shot for the Guineas.
|
|
By:
James, do you think Special Duty will run again this season ? Or will they bring her back as a 4yo ..
|
|
By:
anyone recall the filly Cherry Hinton?
Trained by H.Wragg won the fillies mile by a street but got stuffed in the Fred Darling & Guineas cant recall if she did anything after. |
|
By:
No idea about Special Duty. I hope she'll be back, and she had reportedly been working very well in the build-up to the Falmouth, but something was clearly badly amiss. It was such a poor performance that there must be some doubts now about whether she is training on properly: after all, she didn't need to improve on her two-year-old form to pick up the Guineas and the French Guineas. I hope she's not going backwards.
Cherry Hinton, yes, she was a lovely big strong filly by Nijinsky, who didn't seem to train on and was rather disappointing at three, finishing second in the Fred Darling, fourth in the Guineas (beaten 4½l by Enstone Spark) and third in the Ribblesdale (beaten 3l by Relfo). She disappointed on her final start. Her best offspring was the very smart Red Glow (winner of the Dante, fourth in the Derby). |