old newton cup

this forums in a sorry state platy

usually 20 replies min. by now..

will take a look tomm.

a lot nicer over ere if u ask me

plenty of time to get ur teeth in

Thin Red Line looks of some interest. May not have been favoured by being fairly close to the pace at Epsom and had looked progressive beforehand. Percentages are scanolous tho, so not rushing in until more price up.

just waiting for the latwise and we'll lump on :-)

no more bloody holidays during royal ascot please!

couple of races looking intersting on Thursday at Sandown as well. :-)

sic ******platwise

Nothing special in the odds imo, will probably be bigger on the day!

Red Cadeaux for me, think it has been saved for this.

Hanovarian Baron at 8/1 will do me.

H.B for me also.

like hanovarian to but a few of these are already jocked up and needs 6 to come out to get a run.
so am going for last years winner RED MERLIN at 14's, 2 quiet runs this year and could be on for a repeat.
good luck all.

I think I will have to add Red Merlin to the short list.
Glide Path is only back to back winner but Dansili Dancer won a high value race at Haydock year prior to his win and Hannibal Lad ran his best race when 4th in Newton prev year. Sun Bird and Rada’s Daughter failed next year though

Can anyone tell me if the draw plays a part in this race?

The start is from a chute at the bottom of the home straight- I would personally prefer a lowish draw. On saying that, last years winner was drawn 9 & the 2nd drawn 16.

Last 19 yrs Draw (taking into account most non runners)
LOW
1-10 1-12 1-15 1-15 2-12 2-8 3-15 4-16

MEDIUM
5-9 7-14 7-11 8-15

HIGH
6-9 7-8 10-17 13-16 14-14 14-17 15-19

You could check comparisons with going to hone it down more but this years field may be highest number of runners.
Fields of 15 and more show winners with draws 1,3,4,8,10,13,14,15 so not much in it.
Didn't make a difference last week in Northumberland Plate.

HB in, 17 of 17.

The Power of Prayer should never be underestimated (Top story Racing Post)

thanks for your help

Submariner for Braveheart should go close here imo .

The Fonz for me here.  Haydock is the type of track that favours the handy sort and this improving type with 8-2, from stall 6 must be in with a big shout.  9's looks a decent bet and Stoute has a decent record here with Bezzy up.

had a bit of 12s on the fonz....nothing heavy..as i thought i'd find something else in the race...yet to find anything that gets me excited

Bit risky putting up Red Cadeaux Plat as trainer states only runs if rains- or did u get NRNB?

almiqdaad 4me here.can be 4 given poor last run.

11mm of rain overnight - going now good, g/f in places

aye ch

Red C for me as well. 

And me. Been waiting for it to reappear...hope it runs...

Red C hasn't got the pace for a slowly run 1m4f race imo.

Most winners ran over 12furlongs latest run.
Big question mark against Red Cadeaux who ran Chester Cup.

Thought the race "Fonz" won at Windsor was weak for a class 2 event.
Winners who won a class 2 hcp in current year are very few  especially 4yo's.

Almiqdaad has never ran further than 10f. It has been a requirement to win over at least 11f
for previous winners of this race.

Submariner an improving 4yo and might have a chance be first winner for Mark Johnston in this race
after 12 attempts (with 17 runners). Was 2nd with his first attempt a lightly raced low weighted 4yo(1992)   
and 2nd with lightly raced 3yo Dighalef 1995.

Itlaaq for me.

Cleverly campaigned so far and better than his h'cap mark now up in distance.

I'd expect him to go close in the Ebor after winning this.

div - NR

15:25 - THE bet365 OLD NEWTON CUP (CLASS 2 HERITAGE HANDICAP)
Itlaaq (GB)
Declared at: 02/07/2010 08:41
Reason: Going

cheers lads - thought it was due to rain today/tonight up there - obviously not.

Hillview Boy 11-1 ldbrk. Looks to have improved again since last year. I'd prefer softer ground and a furlong less but I still think he's value at 11's. The slower they go the better his chance.

Backed Thin red line at 12s and submariner at 8s with a 5p rule to come off.  Both progressive Thin red line bolted up at chester and ran well at epsom off his higher mark.  He travels strongly in his races.  Submariner had an impossible task from his draw at ascot but remains off a good mark and has a great attitude

Submariner kept his low hcp mark for this.
4yo Winners of class 2 races in current season go up in weights too much to win the Newton.
They prove they can do the distance by winning a lower grade hcp then put away for this valuable race.
Mark Johnston has had numerous runners since mid 90's and achieved two 2nds.

Why Hanoverian Baron might not win today.

Tony Newcombe has had three runners in Newton Cup over last 20 years.
Casual Water 1996 5yo bottom weight unplaced
Raffles Rooster 1997 5yo bottom weight 3rd (WLTO)
Resonate 2005 7yo bottom weight 3rd only beaten 2 lengths (but had a 7lb claimer aboard – Robert Winston)

The factors against “BARON” winning are.
Too many trainers (Oxx,Nicholls and Newcombe)
Little time with current trainer – but very fruitful
Only one run over 12f
Not ran at Haydock
Trainer had 3 bottom weights previously in this race
I fear his last win was his pinnacle for season but expect a good run and place position.
Favourites have only won 3 times in last 22 years (outright favs won only twice)
No prev winner had won a class 2 (B) race in current season.
Bottom weight has only won once in 22 years.

The Factors for winning are.
5yo runners with good form going into this race have won 3 and finished 2nd once from 8 qualifiers
(Hatton Flight was pulled up so you can discount that and make it 3 from 7)

HANOVERIAN BARON
An ex Irish horse with John Oxx for two years.
Two runs as 2yo finshing 2nd on final outing.
3yo winning a maiden over 7f on AW then upped to Group 3 finishing 4th of 5 rnrs and finally underperforming in an ordinary race over 6f.
4yo went to David Nicholls and ran in two class 2 hcps including unplaced at Royal Ascot over 7f prior to an Apprentice claimer at Wolverhampton and his final run for trainer was unpl AW class 4 hcp.

Went to Tony Newcombe Sept 09 with OR of 72. Won first run at Sandown over 10f class 4 hcp.
Since then he has been a revelation (Like Red Merlin last year). Two good runs in this class (2) this year have made him favourite
For Newton Cup. He is one of those horses that have run in claimer and a Group race. He has hit the high value races in his last two
Runs but no winner since 1990 has won higher than class 3 in current season.
Now on OR 83 you could not say he is overweighted but trainer has had him in care a maximum of 11 months.
He won his last race class 2 over 12f – the only time he has run over this distanc

Munsef will run well at a price. If it wasn't for its last run over a ridiculous trip would have gone off at about 12/1. Big chance.[:)]

spirit is needed shouldnt be 60/1 on here

red merling e/w also

into 30/1 now [:(]

Reve De Nuit ew  and a cover on Submariner

gl

HB
Clipped heels. Finished after that.Unsettled/frightened ?