Horse Antepost
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Shocking ride
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Poor luck in running
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stil won
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Macheen
Simple mathematics imo
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Poor luck in running
+
stil won
=
Macheen
Simple mathematics imo
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Replies: 47
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I've loaded up at 12/1 for the Guineas
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No doubt they will put this little machine away for the season now...12/1 for the Guineas could look juicy come next May..
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I think its a fair price, would nt have backed at 8s
He seemed pretty confident in the interview there after too Highly impressive performance in my eyes |
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to put in to perspective re price Canford hosed up by 6 lengths last yr & was available @ 16s for the Gns.
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Looks like a superstar.
12/1 for a race in 10 months though I wouldn't even consider. |
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Another Coventry winner Henrythenavigator was available at 40+ over the winter.
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Canford Cliffs looked all speed and stamina was a doubt.
Strong Suit however, is bred to excel over a mile and seems to relax no problem. Would have won readily with a clear run. |
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Plus the early pace was slow and strong suit was the only one who made significant ground on the first two from behind.
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[;)]Guineas winner may run in a maiden in Leop on Thursday !!![:p]
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just worry about the sire...tends to produce top notch two year old's.
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willie carson said he looked like a 4 yo already
Elzaam is the one imo for the guineas |
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12/1 is a lunatics price with 11 months to go without even knowing the opposition. Every year bookmakers are squeezing percentages - this colt would have been offered at 20/1 five years ago. Not for me
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I agree with bosra shame: 12/1 is a terrible price at this stage of the season. I like the horse a lot and thought that 8/1 was fair value for the Coventry after his debut win, but I won't be taking 12/1 for the Guineas.
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I don't think it is that bad. Coventry winners have a pretty good record in the Guineas - Canford Cliffs went close this year and Henrythenavigator completed the double a couple of years' ago. I think you might expect 1 in every 12 Coventry winners to go on to lift the Guineas and Strong Suit looks like an exceptional winner to me.
Having said that, I remember that Corals offering 33/1 for any Royal Ascot juvenile winner to win a classic the following year in 1991. That went as close as it could have done really with Queen Mary winner Marling going down in the Guineas and Dr Devious (second in the Coventry) picking up the Derby. Those days are long gone though... |
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Swinia
Joined: 18 Mar 09 Replies: 391 15 Jun 10 19:29 Guineas winner may run in a maiden in Leop on Thursday !!! I can just imagine it, how is the winter antepost favourite for 2000guineas looking aiden(soldieroffortune) ??? Ah listen you'll eh have to excuse the pun but honestly understand that he is in fact, Looking Lovely ^^^ Roughly translates to he's had a minor setback. |
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Now its a ridiculous price
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Zoffany upholds the Coventry form and SS shortens yet again.
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strong suit nowhere near as good as Canford Cliffs at this stage of their careers.... by as much as a stone
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Traffic problems at Ascot so could be better than the bare form of the Coventry.
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Agree with most on this thread. A nice horse but price is prohibitive.
It has only just turned July and we are yet to see anything from Gosden,Stoute,Oxx,O'brien and many more yet. |
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Not bred to train on fwiw. Zoffany was better than the bare form of the Coventry if you watch it again also, granted so was Strong Suit.
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Anyone who has been at the ante posts for 18-24 months knows the price is rubbish. Especially if you've had a ante post guineas bet before.
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18-24 months isnt even wet behind the ears yet
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I didnt think Apalachee would be beaten in 1974
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Eric, I assume that was Graeme's point
Can't understand how no one even blinked at my comment on him training on, assume most agree then and he's awful value? |
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Obviously no value now the bookies are tightening antepost markets up so much. Took him at 10s in a double with Nadal to win Wimbledon to give a 35/1 double. You really cant make decent books as a backer with these prices any more so you have to change your methods.
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Nice one Eric. That is the type of thing I do. If you confident on a selection put it into multiples. I did it with Speacial Duty and several Oaks fancies but it never paid off this time.
 Ben, i'd have no idea about that, bredding,training on etc. But thanks for pointing it out. |
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At the current 7/1 I agree he is poor value with so many of the stronger stables yet to show their hands.
However he was freely available at 33/1 before the Coventry, a price I was pleased to take for the following reasons:- 1. There was common consent that his first race marked him out as a colt of considerable potential. 2. Despite what appeared to be several decent alternative candidates for the Coventry his trainer immediately identfied him as the stable representative. 3. In recent years does anyone honestly believe that Coolmore and Goldolphin attach anything like the same importance to the early Classics as was once the case? 4. I mean no offence at all to Mrs J Wood when I refer to he as a small owner. However I am pleased to avoid the Tabor/Abdullah etc angle where one is unsure which of that particular owner's possible entries will end up at Newmarket as opposed to Longchamp or the Curragh. For these reasons I decided he was an appealing price. After all this is an antepost forum and isn't that what we are supposed to do - back our own opinions and hope to get the big prices? Wait too long and you might as well give up on the AP angle and wait until the day, I am sure SNA backers amongst others (including those who believed Workforce would be trained for the Guineas) now wish they had done. |
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p.s. to avoid being accused of aftertiming I did post up the 33/1 bet somewhere. I just cant remember which thread - but its definitely out there somewhere
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Think an issue is also why did they not have Canford ready to win the Guineas also.
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DD you did indeed mate and I was happy to join you, 40s on Elzaam too.
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Come on Rafa
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Thanks Rafa, 34.75/1 Strong Suit to a grand should be able to get a book going now
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You have a grand double on Rafa and Strong Suit ?
The two bookies would only lay to lose a grand on SS. |
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oh I get it, SS not @ 33/1..?
Was going to say one bookie would only let £30.30 @ 33/1 and the other would only allow £30.40 @ 33/1 got more in shop though  |
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WD eric.
Thats the hardpart over  |
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''Think an issue is also why did they not have Canford ready to win the Guineas also. ''
They did but the beast proved too headstrong....settled better in Ireland and Ascot |
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Certainly won the Coventry well but haven't we been here before on numerous occasions with impressive two year olds.......Arazi, Johannesburg, Dilum, St. Nicholas Abbey etc. etc. May 2011 is an awfully long way away!
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but haven't we been here before on numerous occasions with impressive two year olds......George Washington, Henrythenavigator, Rock of Gibraltar, Zafonic etc
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