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09 Jun 10 18:17
Date Joined: 27 Jan 06
| Topic/replies: 11,752 | Blogger: A_T's blog

Age Of Aquarius
Al Zir
At First Sight
Cape Blanco
Crowded House
Cutlass Bay
Dar Ra Mi
Fencing Master
Glass Harmonium
Jan Vermeer
Jukebox Jury
Kite Wood
Midas Touch
Mikhail Glinka
Monitor Closely
Profound Beauty
Simon De Montfort
Spanish Moon
Very Good Day
Viscount Nelson

No Fame and Glory and no Rip Van Winkle.

Pause Switch to Standard View King George VI and Queen Elizabeth...
Show More
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:10 PM BST
Fk me, at least if you are going to do some "time performance analysis" then do it properly with sectionals etc.  6 horses in the H'cap pulled or were keen, only 2 in the Hardwicke.  Well done for working out they'd post a quicker time in the Hardwicke.

Oh ****, they post the times on the RP site, was about to say you must have been the only one to do hand time, as no-one else had a chance of finding that info out.
Report sintonian June 30, 2010 3:14 PM BST
Why do you think Stoute skipped Ireland Twinter ..
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 3:14 PM BST
Where did I say I simply compared the KG to the handicap?
And sectionals would tell you the precise influence of the ground how exactly?
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 3:17 PM BST
Think I said that, begining with, 'very basically'
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:18 PM BST
Figgis - If you are basing you reasoning on "time performance" then sectionals would be the bricks and mortar of such a system.

Sint - Didn't want to burst the Derby bubble, but many people will state, and probably rightly at present, he had a hard race on quick ground at Epsom.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:21 PM BST
Agree with that ben10, but there has to be some substance behind it all.
Bronze Cannon ran it 0.2secs slower than Harbinger last season carrying 3lbs more.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 3:24 PM BST
Obviously there are occasions when sectionals can be important, this isn't one of them.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:25 PM BST
So it was more a visual performance backed up by the clock?
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 3:29 PM BST
I'll be honest I haven't looked at the time that closely although in Bronze Cannon's case Barshiba's free running set that time up.
I'm not even sure on Harbinger but I do respect Figgis's opinion from what he has posted in the past and when he posts something like that it shouldn't be dismissed so lightly.
The race isn't the deepest either and Stoute is one of the few who still targets it so his pair must be treated with the utmost respect.
Of your picks, Daryakana is the one I was also looking out, was disappointed with her last run but her trainer seems to think she's better right handed. I would be most likely to back her if there was a strong pace assured.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:31 PM BST
Barshiba ran in this years Hardwicke too, exactly the same running style.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 3:39 PM BST
The visuals have a bearing but the time was a stand out for me, it was as good as Goldikova's in last year's Jacques le Marois, which itself was the best for a few years. His time at Newbury was pretty good too, whereas his time at Chester was poor, which I'm pretty sure the sectionals would endorse it was no reflection on the horse's ability.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:41 PM BST
Re Daryakana.

She is a far better mare right handed, however the only 4yo+ Group 1 race this side of August in France is the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud.  So the Corrida run was a prep and it was more a fact finding mission rather than anything else.
She'll be a different proposition all together at Ascot, and she'll be aimed at races like the Arc, if a trip over here doesn't come to fruition.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:52 PM BST
Goldikova and Harbinger in the sentence! Shocked
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 3:54 PM BST
There is of course the Ganay over 10f.
Trainer has Sarafina for the Arc potentially so can see them looking to take this opportunity with Daryakana. Like I say it'll be tough for her without a strong pace on and she's also yet to prove genuine top class imo.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 3:59 PM BST
Ganay never an option as she's a summer mare, so left for the Corrida, main aim of giving LH experience and true prep run, before the Gr 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. 

Ganay would have been too sharp too soon.
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 4:05 PM BST
Was just correcting you that's all ;)
Report twinter June 30, 2010 4:07 PM BST
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 4:24 PM BST
twinter 30 Jun 10 15:18   

Figgis - If you are basing you reasoning on "time performance" then sectionals would be the bricks and mortar of such a system

Yeah, more fool me for picking out what will end up being a Gr 1 10f specialist, to maybe do the Irish & KG double, which if I remember, has been the route of the 2 previous 3yo King George winners.

Basing your reasoning on 2 year trends, that's a new un.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 4:35 PM BST
He's the only 3yo I could have seen winning the King George 2 or 3 weeks ago.  As stated last couple of 3yo's to do it ran in the Irish Derby, no doubt to gain a little more experience.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 4:39 PM BST
It could have been worse:

Harbinger - TIME 2m 27.36s (fast by 2.84s)
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 4:42 PM BST
If you're talking about perceived value then fair enough if that was your view, but much as I think Workforce's performance has been overrated, I can't see how Jan Vermeer's form can be viewed as superior.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 4:48 PM BST
Jan was very uneasy throughout Derby day, and I don't think he was 100%, confirmed by what Johnny Murtagh said post race, where he felt he ran a bit flat. 

Maybe Derby run came too soon after his seasonal debut, not sure, or maybe he just didn't stay.  But at the time, and at the prices, there was only going to be one 3yo to win the King George in my opinion, and that was him.  Now Seamie has came out and said he expected to finish 3rd, so maybe he's not working well, or maybe not as good as I thought he was, or just could be a 10f horse and was ridden as such at The Curragh.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 4:53 PM BST
twinter Joined: 21 May 10
Replies: 103 30 Jun 10 16:39   

It could have been worse:

Harbinger - TIME 2m 27.36s (fast by 2.84s)

Yes, an excellent performance under the conditions.

Father Time - 2m 27.37
An ordinary performance given the conditions.

Your point is?
Report twinter June 30, 2010 4:55 PM BST
What are these conditions you allude to?
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 4:55 PM BST
Where on earth are all the Leger runners? You'd think they'd have at least have some runs.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 4:57 PM BST
I'm going through Harbinger's form here, and I'm struggling to find a horse he's raced against over 12f that would win an all age/sex Group 3.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 4:58 PM BST
Speed of turf / effects of wind.
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 4:59 PM BST
Report twinter June 30, 2010 5:04 PM BST
Aye, but has he ran to that form this season?
Report twinter June 30, 2010 5:06 PM BST
Plus that Hocquart form is weak as pish, Telluride only a listed winner since, and Wajir has hardly set the world alight this season.  Guest Ville only has an AW win to his name.
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 5:09 PM BST
It was actually over 13f after checking so guess doesn't count, was a poor race too. See your point and like I say I'm not sure on him either but it's not like he could have done any more.
Report ben10 June 30, 2010 5:10 PM BST
And a listed race!
Report twinter June 30, 2010 5:13 PM BST
Agree, there's the old argument that you can only beat what's been put in front of you, but 7/2 in the King George on the basis of what he's done so far...good luck backers!
Report twinter June 30, 2010 5:15 PM BST
Figgis - There's a lot of ways to skin a cat, good luck.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 5:16 PM BST
As he's yet to contest a Group 1 it's no surprise that he hasn't beaten Group 1 horses.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 5:18 PM BST
Meant to add that he's been stepped up gradually this year and what he has beaten he's beaten with ease.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 5:30 PM BST
You too, Twinter, I'll be having a decent bet and although I should know better after all these years, I'll be genuinely shocked if he's beaten Silly
Report twinter June 30, 2010 6:29 PM BST
Figgis     30 Jun 10 17:16 
As he's yet to contest a Group 1 it's no surprise that he hasn't beaten Group 1 horses.

Not arguing with that, it's just the quality he's faced so far aren't Gr2 horses imo.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 6:34 PM BST
Out of curiousity...who was the last winner of the King George not to have run in a Gr1 beforehand?
Report twinter June 30, 2010 6:50 PM BST
2000    Montjeu 7
2001    Galileo 2
2002    Golan 5
2003    Alamshar 2
2004    Doyen 2
2005    Azamour 7
2006    Hurricane Run 5   
2007    Dylan Thomas 9
2008    Duke of Marmalade 9
2009    Conduit    3

Be also interesting to see how many have won without competing in a Gr 1 race @ 3.
Report Figgis June 30, 2010 6:51 PM BST
Not sure, was it Pentire? I didn't back that horse but I remember backing Mtoto to win his first Eclipse without having run in a Group 1 previously.
Report twinter June 30, 2010 6:51 PM BST
^ the above is the number of Gr 1 runs prior to them winning the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes!
Report mythical prince July 2, 2010 9:52 PM BST
quite like sariska in this.
Report A_T July 2, 2010 10:25 PM BST
Hasn't Bell said only one more run for Sariska before the Arc probably at York?
Report twinter July 2, 2010 10:39 PM BST

"We need to discuss the next move with Sariska and at the moment we're thinking about the Yorkshire Oaks, although it's not yet a definite target.

"Our main aim is the Arc and, as we want to give her just one more run beforehand, York might fit the bill.
Report mythical prince July 2, 2010 10:59 PM BST
oh right it's probably not going to be running.

still might be interesting for the arc, if it gets enough rain.
Report Led on bit July 3, 2010 7:50 AM BST
Does anyone know what date the next forfeit stage is?
Report hippie July 3, 2010 5:44 PM BST
next forfeit stage - July 6th.

(Supplementary entries by July 19th)
Report sintonian July 4, 2010 10:21 AM BST
form frank for Harbinger.
Report The Headmaster July 5, 2010 2:46 PM BST
Reluctant to put up a non-runner but there must be some chance that Midday goes for this?  Abdullah more than happy to fire two (or three) bullets at a big race....although Teddy G says she'll probably go for the Nassau.

Is it not possible that a) TG's talking roobish again and b) the trainer would much rather have a go at the KG?  Cecil recently said he loves the KG and Midday wants 12f.  Maybe I'm putting two and two together, but he also has three 3-y-o Nassau candidates for the Prince and a win for any of them would be worth much more than Midday doing it again.

Nassau entries in tomorrow so will be interesting to see how many of the Cecil/Abdullah 3-y-os are in.
Report mythical prince July 5, 2010 2:54 PM BST
save your money she wont run in the king george
Report The Headmaster July 6, 2010 11:24 AM BST
Are you a layer, MP?  What price would you be prepared to lay the N/R at....just for buttons, nothing too serious!
Report mythical prince July 6, 2010 1:11 PM BST
i wouldnt be a layer m8 at those sort of prices but i'll just be very surprised if she did run for the obvious reason that they've got the very likely winner in workforce.

I tend to find that grimthorpe is quite straighforward so i guess she'll probably head for the nassau.
Report The Headmaster July 6, 2010 1:44 PM BST
Yep I think I'm throwing sheckles at a N/R tbh. The Prince could have three runners and she still wouldn't be one of them.  I'd agree TG is 'straight' but not always up to speed with current thinking - Workforce being a prime example! Be suprised if they took her out just yet anyway....
Report A_T July 6, 2010 2:36 PM BST
Can't see Midday running. She's a good filly but not up to winning a race like this and they won't waste her energy trying.
Report The Headmaster July 7, 2010 12:32 PM BST
Age of Aquarius (IRE)
Holberg (UAE)
Mawatheeq (USA)
Spanish Moon (USA)
Youmzain (IRE)
Dar Re Mi
Daryakana (FR)
At First Sight (IRE)
Cape Blanco (IRE)
Fencing Master
Jan Vermeer (IRE)
Very Good Day (FR)
Report ben10 July 14, 2010 12:57 PM BST
ben10 Joined: 06 Sep 07
Replies: 1839 28 Jun 10 14:29 
I'd ask Peslier to take the ride if it was my horse.

Looks like someone agrees, good booking imo:

Peslier lands Harbinger ride in King George
By Tony Elves 9:25AM 14 JUL 2010

SIR MICHAEL STOUTE on Wednesday confirmed Olivier Peslier will ride Harbinger in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on July 24.

Ryan Moore has ridden Harbinger in his eight starts to date and was on board the Highclere Thoroughbred- owned colt when he gained his fifth career success in the Group 2 Harwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.

However, the champion jockey has already stated he will stick with Investec Derby winner Workforce in the Betfair-sponsored Group 1.

Peslier had been installed as William Hill's 5-4 favourite to partner Harbinger and rode Ask to finish third behind Conduit and Tartan Bearer in last year's race.

Harbinger worked impressively on the watered gallop under Maria Doe when going well clear of his workmate and it is possible that Peslier could ride him in work at the weekend.

Stoute told on Wednesday morning: "Olivier Peslier will ride Harbinger. Ryan is the only one to have ridden and Olivier will have sit on him before the race."

Quoted on the Highclere website, managing director Harry Herbert said: "We are thrilled that Olivier will be riding Harbinger; he is a world class jockey and we have enjoyed a number of successes over the years, including Delilah in the Princess Royal Stakes at Ascot.

"He will ride Harbinger in a piece of work this weekend and hopefully we are now all set for the big race on the 24th."
Report market-mover July 14, 2010 6:04 PM BST
Workforce will win by 5lenths plus every win I have 50% of my winnings are going back on Workforce.
Report brigust1 July 15, 2010 12:38 PM BST
I'm torn between the two mares. I cannot have Workforce based on one strange win in a dodgy looking race. Form not working out, raced on a fast strip against the rails etc. I can't have Harbinger. Never really rated it last year, successes this year plus his price plus RM riding Wrkforce make him a no-go area for me.
Da Re Mi has really solid Gr1 form and has been readied for this and so has Daryakana. This has been Daryakana's target since last year and providing she gets fast ground looks a great price. Won the Gr1 beating Spanish Moon coming from last to first with a blinding run and her two runs this year were good but going wrong way round yet still puts her up there or in front of DRMe.
Report whodareswins July 16, 2010 2:46 PM BST
Dar Re Me more likely to turn up.  Barring accidents she will run.  Can the same be said about the French filly who still has to prove herself against the first team of boys and girls.  Dar Re Mi's 2nd to Zarkava as good as anything in the field unless Workforce is as good as he looked at Epsom.  She beat Sariska fair and square and has form with most of the older boys, including when behind STS in the Arc where a season of a series of hard battles may have begun to have their effect.  She was not knocked about in the Eclipse which was a bit too short.
Report Tavaris Jackson July 16, 2010 3:10 PM BST
Backed the French filly yesterday, she's a pretty big price.
Will probably add Dar Re Mi too.


The Aga Khan-owned filly enjoyed a fantastic three-year-old campaign, winning each of her five starts and rounding off the year with victory in the Hong Kong Vase.

She has suffered defeat on her first two outings of 2010 but the owner's racing manager Georges Rimaud is looking forward to seeing her take on Workforce and Harbinger in the Group One.

"Daryakana is still on course for the King George at the moment, but there is still a while to go," said Rimaud.

"She has run well so far this season, but is perhaps not as straightforward as one might have hoped.

"Her last race was very good and I think she'll make a good attempt at Ascot.

"She is a filly who progresses through the year and may be better in the autumn, but we'll see.

"She has got the talent but she needs to have everything right and is taking time to get ready this year.

"The King George should be a very interesting race and if she goes and beats all these horses then she is certainly a very good filly."
Report Sir July 16, 2010 9:25 PM BST
Stoutes 6 runners today
4/17, 15/17, 6/11, 3/7, 6/7, 5/10

3 from 31 in the last 14 days.
Something must be wrong.
Report Masterminded July 17, 2010 1:20 AM BST
Report carvillshill July 18, 2010 10:21 PM BST
Coimg around to Daryakana each way- Stoute's form means a shock isn't impossible. Watching her runs at Saint Cloud she's definitely ill at ease on the bends so ascot RH might bring about big improvement. The win at Sha Tin is visually very impressive.
Report elisjohn July 19, 2010 12:38 PM BST
8 left in ,     workforce, harb, c blanco,dar re , youmzain, darykana,at first sight,confront
Report Masterminded July 19, 2010 6:16 PM BST
Really if Workforce runs any kind of race I think he's going to leave them in his dust. Only concern is Stoute's form. Confused
Report carvillshill July 19, 2010 6:29 PM BST
Dar Re Mi very weak on here- doubtful?
Report Graeme83 July 19, 2010 8:47 PM BST
If England gets the rain sent down from Scotland which has been here and heavy at times, then the going won't even be good. Maybe there's anticipation for it ?
Report Graeme83 July 19, 2010 8:54 PM BST
In fact after checking there will be rain on Wednesday and heavy rain on Thursday around Ascot. That obviously changes things.
Report Graeme83 July 19, 2010 8:55 PM BST
Maybe Sariska should have been sent here after all.
Report A_T July 19, 2010 9:06 PM BST
Rain forecast for Friday too but I doubt there will be the prolonged rain necessary to make the ground soft at this time of year.
Report Graeme83 July 19, 2010 11:02 PM BST
I dunno about that A_T. I think the ground will be good to soft.
Report Masterminded July 19, 2010 11:27 PM BST
The rain is doing f all to the ground. Its not even dampening the dust yet. It would need a good solid amount of rain to make it any softer than good and I don't think we will get it. Even money Workforce receiving 12lbs from main rivals. Must be the bet of the summer? Laugh
Report sintonian July 20, 2010 9:38 AM BST
Both Harbinger & Workforce will appreciate the rain anyway so it makes sense to avoid the Colts for the time being and let them beat each other up during the summer .. then Sariska can return nice and fresh for the Autumn ..
Report Prima Donna July 20, 2010 11:05 AM BST
She can have all the rest she wants............She will not beat Workforce she could not get past Fame and Glory at Epsom,so how on earth do you think she is going to beat Workforce?F&G is a good horse but NOT outstanding and can when he meets the top class stuff gets beaten,imo no real turn of foot just a staying horse who keeps on.
Report Graeme83 July 20, 2010 11:11 AM BST
Like i said, she might have a chance if the ground was plenty soft. I think one or two of you will be suprised at the weather that's heading you way. I think Workforce is the best horse in the race, but i wouldn't know if he would perform on a softer surface. There's only one way to find out.
Report sintonian July 20, 2010 11:32 AM BST
Prima, i've not said she would beat Workforce, but I do believe granted more favourable ground she has a big chance of reversing 1 1/2 with F&G. That being the case, would give her a big chance in the Arc.
Report twinter July 21, 2010 12:36 AM BST
Daryakana for me following the entries and the expected ground (only due serious rain on Thursday, but even then it's sharp showers).

Can't have her as being rated just 116, beat Spanish Moon on her 5th start and first season on the race course, and he's rated 122 Confused.

If only 7 go to post I'll place lay both Harbinger and Workforce.
Report unclepuncle July 21, 2010 10:58 AM BST
Did Tregoning ever state why Mawathheq was pulled out of the race?
Report kavvie July 21, 2010 11:07 AM BST
surely harbinger is the one?proven course form.proven group say the price is good at 3s
Report ben10 July 21, 2010 11:09 AM BST
Tregoning: Mawatheeq will miss King George
By Jon Lees 11:35AM 18 JUL 2010

MAWATHEEQ will miss Saturday's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and is unlikely to return to action until later in the season, trainer Marcus Tregoning said on Sunday.

Last year's Emirates Airline Champion Stakesrunner-up was due to work this weekend in preparation for the Betfair-sponsored showpiece until Tregoning shelved his plans.

"He is not going to go," Tregoning said. "I am not happy with him and he needs a bit more time. It was quite optimistic to run him at Ascot and he just needs a bit more time.

"You will see him later on in the year hopefully. I would have loved to run him in it but you have to be absolutely spot on for these Group 1 races."

Mawatheeq was sidelined by a fetlock injury earlier in the year and on his first start since finished tenth of 12 in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He refused to go in the stalls before the Coral-Eclipse Stakes this month but has subsequently passed a stalls test.
Report dirtybum July 21, 2010 12:31 PM BST
who will ride cape blanco on sat?
Report Platini July 21, 2010 1:26 PM BST
How well does Harbinger handle softish ground?  Was thinking of a big lay on this one, but if the ground is on the soft side, it could blunt the chances of several of the field.
Report ben10 July 21, 2010 1:30 PM BST
Don't think it will be soft mate
Report carvillshill July 21, 2010 3:34 PM BST
Fixture date: 23/07/2010
ASCOT - Flat (Updated:21/07/2010 at 08:27)   

Good, Good to Firm in places (Watering)
(GoingStick: Standside 8.1, Centre 8.5, farside 8.3, Round 7.9
on Wednesday at 08:15)

Straight Course- Centre

Dry so far this week. Showers possible Thurs and Fri.
Dry forecast for Sat and Sun.

By end of Wed 20mm of water will have been applied to straight
course, 12mm to round course; since Sunday.
Report penzance July 21, 2010 5:47 PM BST
might be wrong but I thought they were watering,so rain can't be forcased?
Report jmc27 July 21, 2010 5:54 PM BST
dirtybum Joined: 19 Jun 10
Replies: 3 21 Jul 10 12:31 
who will ride cape blanco on sat?

Colm ODonoghue.

Ive been chipping away at Cape Blanco last few weeks so Ive nailed my colours. GL to everyone playing hopefully it turns out to be a top class race!
Report J0KER July 21, 2010 8:48 PM BST
Dar Ri Mai at 15/1 with Hills ... simply the wronk price.

She was as big as a bull lto and ran a blinder chasing a silly pace... 15/1 about an animal of her class is rare.

Saver on Cape Blaco again symply coz its too big.

i bet Workforce in the Derby but EVS is a stinking price in the face of some superb competition with proven form
Report A_T July 23, 2010 9:38 PM BST
Has to be Workforce. Nothing else of his class in the race. Confront to set a blistering pace.
Report EastLower Gooner July 23, 2010 10:49 PM BST
cape blanco has this in the bag imo
Report Graeme83 July 23, 2010 10:50 PM BST
Workforce all day every day Cool
Report twinter July 23, 2010 11:24 PM BST
Laid Workforce, place laid Harbinger and on Youmzain and Daryakana EWay Ante Post.
Report Masterminded July 23, 2010 11:48 PM BST
Report Graeme83 July 24, 2010 10:21 AM BST
If Cape Blanco wins this i'll give up racing and dress up as a cow.
Report Viva Pataca July 24, 2010 11:41 AM BST
Daryakana at 14/1 is far too big. The Vase last year was one of the most memorable racing performances from the Flat 2009. I think she wants an end to end mad gallop, hopefully Confront will set that and everyone follows. Thus, she did not run to form at Saint Cloud.

Can't have Harbinger. Would love to see Youmzain finally get his head in front but patience has worn too thin. Workforce can't do much than win the Derby by seven lengths in course record time but agree that its advisable to look elsewhere at the prices. Cape Blanco is hard to weigh up, am guessing we haven't seen the best of him but wary that he'd be able to win a vintage King George at this point in his career.
Report teflontom July 24, 2010 12:48 PM BST
Going for the straight forecast here-Workforce over Cape Blanco.Don't think any of these older brigade can give either of these two 12lbs!!!
Report carvillshill July 24, 2010 1:20 PM BST
Don't think I can resist a saver on Harbinger if he gets much bigger...
Report twinter July 24, 2010 5:52 PM BST
Well done Figgis!

Hope you made a bundle!
Report Figgis July 24, 2010 6:20 PM BST
Thanks Twinter.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer July 24, 2010 8:23 PM BST
inspired,made em look like mugs figgis probably won't get anybody doubting your speed asessments anymore after todays track record.
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