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platinni
05 Jun 10 17:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 6,789 | Blogger: platinni's blog
anyone have strong opines?

cape blanco will be a warm order after today but i want to take him on.  thinking bekhabad but was looking for 12's 14's or so
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Report ben10 June 5, 2010 11:08 PM BST
Seen horses quicken better than him, use your own eyes it's on youtube, but does it very well beating good horses, an interesting contender I think. This race is loads better than the Derby in terms of depth
Report bestmate June 5, 2010 11:18 PM BST
Jockey booking puts me off Simon.not a finished article & gave a poor ride in Irish 1000
Report bestmate June 5, 2010 11:19 PM BST
Some Trends
•    Ignore Horses bred for 1 mile 4 furlong
•    French trained(9/11)
•    Won earlier in the season (10/11)
•    Group/Listed winner at 3(9/11)
•    LTO 1st 2(10/11)
o    LTO winner(7/11)
•    RPR of 121(8/11)
•    Avoid horses drawn wide (high i-e double figures).
o    Horses drawn NO higher than 11(9/11)
•    Don’t ignore horses stepping up in trip from a mile
•    Track favours front runners/racers up with the pace
Report ben10 June 5, 2010 11:21 PM BST
Hmmm, pacemakers make the trends an interesting conundrum though, anyone looked into just ones run with them?
Report ReaseHeath June 5, 2010 11:27 PM BST
Dunno but AOB 0-1-18 - fair few of them might've been pacemakers but clearly not been working.
Report ben10 June 5, 2010 11:58 PM BST
I meant the draw more than anything, should sort them out with a bit of luck.
Report Night Sight June 6, 2010 12:00 AM BST
Ben10,

I've watched the race on Youtube just now (after the Belmont [;)]) and thought Simon De Montfort won with quite a bit in hand and didn't see anything to put me off.

Don't really need it now after Drosselmeyer though.Laugh
Report ReaseHeath June 6, 2010 12:07 AM BST
yeah, it's the biggest field for years.

The other thing with the draw stat is that in 6 of the last 10 years, there have only been 15 runners or less which limits the opportunity of those drawn higher than 11 to win!

On the other hand last 3 years winner was drawn:

5/20
4/20
4/17
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 12:20 AM BST
Yeah I think it's a fair call tbf, not had a proper look at what he beat but seems solid Group form in the style of a nice horse. I'm one of the few who think the jockey might have something and he won't be a huge negative on the horse. The underlining was for Workforce fans, they seem a little touchy tonight Grin
Report sintonian June 6, 2010 8:54 AM BST
Planteur & Behkabad for me too.

Not sure what's going on with the ground, currently Good but the rain forecast is a concern here.

Das what is the closest trends match ..
Report platinni June 6, 2010 9:08 AM BST
cheers for the stats bm
Report sintonian June 6, 2010 10:05 AM BST
7 horses in his race priced at 100/1 or more.

sly-bet going 4 places.
Report sintonian June 6, 2010 10:05 AM BST
*this
Report Pret a Gagner June 6, 2010 10:06 AM BST
Going in big on Zina Blue at 1pm - she is drawn in 3 and has good early pace. For the first race on the card, the inside 6 metres of the track won't have been used for a month, so I reckon the draw could be a huge advantage. Spain Blues also has early pace, but will need to cross over to the inside from stall 13.

As for the jockey club I'm looking at No Risk At All but haven't decided yet.
Report Pret a Gagner June 6, 2010 10:24 AM BST
Anyone taking Behkabad at 9/1 is mad not to be considering NO RISK AT ALL at 16s.

He is 11/2 on the PMU, and for me 16s is a stonking bet. He is drawn in 5, and I have just seen on this thread that the last three winners were drawn 5,4,4.

He will be partnered by Christophe Soumillon, who lost his whip in the last race, when finishing a very close second to Behkabad.

He had an easy run and he'll love softer ground conditions.

The only negative is that he is trained by a jumps trainer, who must still be gutted after the Remember Rose farce at Auteuil.

There we go, a few hours ago I was about to lump on Planteur!
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 10:26 AM BST
Why are you not now out of interest?
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 10:28 AM BST
No Risk At All looks big @ 16/1 to me.

Was unlucky lto when jock dropped his whip on the run in but was still closing down the winner to the line with the extra 1.5f sure to suit today on that evidence.

No always a fan of Soumillon but has a great record in this race and although the horse is normally held up i'm hoping the jock will have him closer to the pace from stall 5.

Very close (if not perfect) stats pick to boot.

Saver on Lumineux @ 32-36 on here. Neg is that owners were prepared to let the jock get off to ride Elusive Pimp before his withdrawal. However he seems to be slowly improving (as his master of a trainer has a habit of doing) and apprantly put in a scintillating piece of work the other day. Not a great stats fit but nicely drawn in 2 and should outrun his odds.

Gl all
Report trev w June 6, 2010 10:28 AM BST
anyone know whos paying 1st past the post for this...i believe PP are...if anyone can confirm.

with a big field...it would be crazy not to back with this concession over there...

got my fingers burnt last timeSad
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 10:32 AM BST
Been there before trev :(

All the firms seem to say the rules are for English and Irish racing only but then some make the concession if they deem it worthwhile from a publicity perspective. Very hard to know but PP always seem to be first to volunteer.

It's for that reason though that I can't back a non-french jock or horse in this. Can't help but think if there's a 50/50 call it will always go to the home team.
Report Pret a Gagner June 6, 2010 10:34 AM BST
Just think that stall 10 could be tricky to break from.

And when you look at the PMU odds this morning, it is obvious that the UK bookies are going mad about Planteur, because he won the prep race for the jockey club and beat a horse that we now know a bit about.

Current PMU odds are:

Planteur 7.4
No Risk At All 6.7 Love

One is 5/1, and then other is 16/1....
Report Graeme83 June 6, 2010 10:35 AM BST
Let's just hope Ballydoyle don't win. They simply don't deserve it. Viscount Nelson looks better value anyway at 40 on the machine and 25s regularly. No bet.
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 10:39 AM BST
Pret - the opening show PMU odds are often very different to those at the off. However agree he is the value.
Report Pret a Gagner June 6, 2010 10:42 AM BST
Trust me, I have had enough bad experiences with the PMU to know that! haha

Here is the Prix De Guiche
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U26qsRm5Kg4

No Risk At All finishes like a jet plane.
Report trev w June 6, 2010 10:46 AM BST
took the 11/2 pp ice blue...good draw/moore to make history maybe...
then either bekhabad or no risk at all????

the draw/price says no risk at all....esp if rain comes down,however i'm worried that soumy drops him out..then the draw could be a nightmare unless getting the breaks..

bek..has a worse draw...but could well spring out..and get a nice possy anyway...

since the drop in distance the 4/5 7 and below seems a big advantage if you take advantage of it.
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 10:47 AM BST
Watching him versus Behkabad I think Behkabad is a bit one paced comapred to him the change in result was due to them figuring that out, in a big field No Risk At All may need some luck and Behkabad will be at the sharp end and he should stay well. That said ground possibly faces yours so good luck, I think I'm looking elsewhere.
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 10:57 AM BST
Anyone looked at the Sandringham?

Liliside - 2/1
Joanna - 11/4
Barouda - 12/1 Shocked

Last names has to be the value. No luck fto this season when caught in a pocket (Fallon on board that day) which prompted a number of shrewdies to back for the 1,000.

Only beaten 2l but was again unlucky as another horse (forget which) ran into her at the beginning of the straight when about to start her run.

Extra 100m of today's straight should suit as should the likely strong gallop with a couple of prominent/front runners in the field.

At the prices she has to be the VALUE imo.
Report Pret a Gagner June 6, 2010 11:04 AM BST
Keep this coming, great stuff. I'm in the UK and won't be able to catch ATR today, do the bookies screen French racing these days?

I got a mild case of World Cup fever this morning and fired off some crazy bets. Should've waited until tonight..
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 11:13 AM BST
OK, I'm sticking with my inital reaction of Planteur being a very good horse. Think he has the speed to get prominent from his draw, stays well and will be OK with easy underfoot conditions. Only danger is Ice Blue for me so will have a small cover on him.
Simon De Montfort non runner I see...
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 11:27 AM BST
Think you're onto something with Barouda HFC, looks a decent price based on how they finish in the Guineas. Got to have a saver on the Spanish raider Ercolini, ridden by Murtagh, did it in nice style last time out and Murtagh up today, worth a bit at 25/1 imo with no ground worries.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyrMnTTvgrw
Report ReaseHeath June 6, 2010 11:28 AM BST
I've backed Planteur too - can't believe Cape Blanco's price, not normally a layer but sorely tempted.

As a few have pointed out, his favouritism is based on Workforce form line as opposed to Co-ordinated Cut - believe the latter is a better guide as Workforce improved beyond all recognition yday - add in AOB's record in the race, the fact that the French farmed our first two classics this year and have kept this race at home 8 of last 10 years and you have a great lay on both form and stats grounds.

If I'm wrong I won't mind because the logic is sound.
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 11:30 AM BST
Wish I hadn't wrote Murtagh twice, looks like I'm backing it based on that now :(
You can all see the video anyway
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 11:32 AM BST
I'm only ruling Cape Blanco out because it should be soft tbh
Report platinni June 6, 2010 11:38 AM BST
lads behkabad had NRAA well covered lto imo.

SDM out i see
Report downallstar June 6, 2010 11:41 AM BST
No bet race for me, but hope Cape sluices up, so I can sulk some more. LaughCrySilly
Report trev w June 6, 2010 11:50 AM BST
love a jockey on a high...so ryan on gotlandia for me...save on liliside as i did'nt get paid on her ltoCry
Report platinni June 6, 2010 11:51 AM BST
fellon is doing alright at the minute too trev
Report trev w June 6, 2010 11:57 AM BST
true..but he's on the wrong kind of highMischiefLaugh
Report trev w June 6, 2010 12:00 PM BST
have played the 2 Bs in an e/w double bek & bar.

ryan in both
and no risk e/w.
Report Jaws June 6, 2010 12:07 PM BST
Baldy and Paddy are the only bookmakers who will be paying first past the post in this race. You have been warned.
Report Pret a Gagner June 6, 2010 12:30 PM BST
Flagged up Zina Blue earlier, great bet at 16s with 4 places, 1pm.
Report jmc27 June 6, 2010 12:33 PM BST
Planteur confident bet for me Cool
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 12:38 PM BST
Just realised my two fancies - Barouda and No risk at all - are by the same sire: My Risk.

Just doubled them [;)]
Report bestmate June 6, 2010 1:28 PM BST
Shortlist
PLANTEUR/ICE/BEKHBAD
can't decide how to play yet
Not e our friend Nick M is hot on Behkabad
Report platinni June 6, 2010 1:35 PM BST
what he say bm?
Report Earl.E.Byrd June 6, 2010 1:39 PM BST
Afternoon all

3 at Brighton all at prices

2.30 all trainers showing poor form atm so looking to CD form and Mandhooma @ 33-1 looks Mahoosive .EW

3.30  very small turn out and the fact Fifty cents has come out is good for my pick Foxtrot Bravo who i hope will set a pace and hang on FC was the only one that worried me so win and place cover .

4.30 I should stick with Buxton but Ingram can never seem to get two wins out of any hoss so i am looking to Choreography EW but may cover Bux if the price allows

In France one bet pour moi Planteur .

GL all [:p]
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 1:48 PM BST
BEHKABAD PROBABLY THE BEST MIDDLE DISTANCE 3YO IN EUROPE

The French three year olds seem to be a little bit ahead of their Irish and British counterparts this year. They've already won the 1000 and 2000 Guineas. And now it looks like they could have won the Derby as well if only BEHKABAD (40) were going to Epsom rather than staying at home for the Prix du Jockey Club.

Behkabad made all the running at a good pace then quickened up nicely to hold the late rush of No Risk At All in the Prix de Guiche, only having to be shaken up and given a couple of cracks with the whip to do so. He was still moving smooth and strong passing the line.

Behkabad was probably the best two year old to run in France last year. He won all three of his starts while showing a serious turn of foot for a horse that's built and bred to go a mile and a half. His dam was a two mile Group 1 performer and her sole previous foal was Behestam who won over a mile and a half but always looked like he was wanting longer (he also won over 1m 5f)

On his seasonal debut over an inadequate mile Behkabad was not fully fit and was given an easy time of things in the closing stages when finishing third. That run clearly brought him on a good deal.

Behkabad has a serious turn of foot as well as abundant stamina. He's a versatile, relaxed horse that can make his own running or come from behind. He can act on any ground and any sort of course and is clearly very effective over nine furlongs despite being bred for longer.

This run establishes Behkabad as the best middle distance three year old in Europe. It's astonishing that the bookies don't list him in their ante-post market for the Arc. He really ought to be a warm favourite for that race. Certainly he's going to be tough to beat in the Prix du Jockey Club. I can readily see him going unbeaten for the rest of the season.

NO RISK AT ALL (40) justified his trainer's high opinion of him. But even though his jockey lost his whip and he only lost by a neck it was clear the winner was superior. No Risk At All rushed up to him down the outside but Behkabad simply accelerated again to hold him off rather comfortably.

On his previous start No Risk At All came through with a very good run from last place to score by a couple of lengths in a one mile Listed race at Saint-Cloud on his seasonal debut after moving well throughout.

He is a somewhat narrow sort that's only medium sized so I have to wonder how well he'll do when he has to fight his way though the bigger field he'll face in the Prix du Jockey Club.

I'm sure he'll stay longer since his dam was a two and a half mile chaser that's produced several smart jumpers including Nickname.
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 1:55 PM BST
It's astonishing that the bookies don't list him in their ante-post market for the Arc. He really ought to be a warm favourite for that race.

Why is it he always makes a really good comment and then follows it up with a stupid statement like that.
Report platinni June 6, 2010 2:07 PM BST
i forget he does the french stuff too

lilliside was a good shout
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 2:11 PM BST
Anyone know if Fallon has maged to turn up yet? [>o]
Report trev w June 6, 2010 2:13 PM BST
earl fookin trappy that 1st @ bri.
i'll have few£ yours...& conjecture with TQ booked ..18s looks ok.
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 2:14 PM BST
What a kn*b
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 2:15 PM BST
Mosse rides Barouda according to zeturf
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 2:16 PM BST
Cheers ben. Needs to sort out his timekeeping imo.
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 2:19 PM BST
What a sh********************t ride. F*cking fallon.
Report platinni June 6, 2010 2:34 PM BST
bet366 are doing pmu betting fwiw
Report _royboy_ June 6, 2010 2:44 PM BST
planteur for me

anywhere to watch this online?????
Report comingupthehill June 6, 2010 3:01 PM BST
celtic celeb got a squeak at 50/1
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 3:08 PM BST
Getttttttttttttttttttttttttttt innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnLaugh
Report comeonkautostar June 6, 2010 3:09 PM BST
WOW

Very Impressive

Guineas/Derby Double
Report platinni June 6, 2010 3:09 PM BST
nice work tt

youre in the zone
Report nibbledat June 6, 2010 3:09 PM BST
wp tt[;)]
Report redal2 June 6, 2010 3:10 PM BST
Wd tt.
Impressive, very impressive.
Fabre - just good enough to prep horses apparently Laugh
Report comeonkautostar June 6, 2010 3:10 PM BST
wd tt
Report trev w June 6, 2010 3:11 PM BST
tt[;)]
Report Horsesforcourses June 6, 2010 3:11 PM BST
Shout tt!!
Report ben10 June 6, 2010 3:11 PM BST
Well done TT, how good are the milers this year Shocked
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 3:13 PM BST
Thanks lads Love  been a good few days tbhCool
Report ReaseHeath June 6, 2010 3:14 PM BST
reflects well on Penis's effort in French guineas too!
Report redal2 June 6, 2010 3:14 PM BST
Our old friend Mr Turpin has his form franked again, unlucky horse
Report redal2 June 6, 2010 3:14 PM BST
Well said ReaseheathLaugh
Report downallstar June 6, 2010 3:23 PM BST
Wd tt ydc. Love
Report Benjy June 6, 2010 3:28 PM BST
Anyone know how the ground is out there atm?
Report Earl.E.Byrd June 6, 2010 3:29 PM BST
well done tt [;)]
Report Charlton2005 June 6, 2010 3:49 PM BST
Super TT

Words starting to wear thin with all the talent on here.

WD

Happy
Report the lay preacher June 6, 2010 4:01 PM BST
well done tt .
charlton i wouldnt be going too mad about the result
out of 9/10 selections for the race one of you was bound too find the winner.
Report trev w June 6, 2010 4:05 PM BST
Laughohhhh mrs ^
Report Benjy June 6, 2010 4:08 PM BST
Black Mambazo and Dolled Up should both go well in this upcoming sprint imo.
Report nibbledat June 6, 2010 4:12 PM BST
planet five e/w @12
gl if ya playing
Report Charlton2005 June 6, 2010 4:12 PM BST
OK Lay, I'll refrain from saying anything when anyone puts up a 16/1 winner. Maybe if someone puts up something at 50/1+ that arrives I'll put in a good word.
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:13 PM BST
fcukk off
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:14 PM BST
Btw,that's for Nib Blush
Report nibbledat June 6, 2010 4:14 PM BST
^ Devil
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:15 PM BST
Mischief
Report nibbledat June 6, 2010 4:15 PM BST
thinking of having a boneless banquet
cany anyone put me off?
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:16 PM BST
No,dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo it Silly
Report trev w June 6, 2010 4:18 PM BST
nib..i heard up norf that is a b low job is this correctConfusedLaugh
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:19 PM BST
Laugh
Report trev w June 6, 2010 4:20 PM BST
Laugh
Report nibbledat June 6, 2010 4:22 PM BST
Laugh
Report nibbledat June 6, 2010 4:27 PM BST
get the fcuk in Laugh[;)]
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:28 PM BST
Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiibbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbber ydc Laugh
Report the lay preacher June 6, 2010 4:28 PM BST
awesome nibb.
Report sintonian June 6, 2010 4:30 PM BST
thought that was a fair point from lay preacher tbhPlain

well done turnip
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:30 PM BST
fanks Sint Love
Report downallstar June 6, 2010 4:36 PM BST
I agree with tlp, ye are all a shower of pin stickers and guessers! Grin
Report trev w June 6, 2010 4:37 PM BST
nibbersCool[;)]
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:37 PM BST
Gold pin though [:p]
Report downallstar June 6, 2010 4:39 PM BST
lend me it, ta. Silly

Nibb Love
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 4:40 PM BST
Devil
Report turnip turns June 6, 2010 7:11 PM BST
In case ya haven't seen it,great commentary Laugh


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDBRC-dXI9k
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