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Belmez
31 May 10 22:34
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Date Joined: 25 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 150 | Blogger: Belmez's blog
latest decs below - any news/comments/stats/bets welcome

Al Zir (USA)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Arcano (IRE)  3 9-0  B J Meehan 
Beethoven (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien 
Big Audio (IRE)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor 
Buzzword  3 9-0  Mahmood Al Zarooni 
Canford Cliffs (IRE)  3 9-0  R Hannon
Cape Blanco (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien   
**** Turpin (IRE)  3 9-0  R Hannon   
Elusive Pimpernel (USA)  3 9-0  J L Dunlop
Emerald Commander (IRE)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Encompassing (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien   
Fair Trade  3 9-0  D R C Elsworth 
Fencing Master  3 9-0  A P O'Brien 
Free Judgement (USA)  3 9-0  J S Bolger 
Frozen Power (IRE)  3 9-0  Mahmood Al Zarooni 
Hearts of Fire  3 9-0  Pat Eddery 
Jan Vermeer (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien 
Makfi  3 9-0  M Delzangles   
Noble's Promise (USA)  3 9-0  Kenneth G McPeek 
Poet's Voice  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Royal Bench (IRE)  3 9-0  R Collet 
Shakespearean (IRE)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor 
Siyouni (FR)  3 9-0  A de Royer-Dupre 
St Nicholas Abbey (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien 
Steinbeck (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien   
Viscount Nelson (USA)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien

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Replies: 54
By:
Charlton2005
When: 31 May 10 22:35
latest decs below - any news/comments/stats/bets welcome

Al Zir (USA)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Arcano (IRE)  3 9-0  B J Meehan
Beethoven (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien
Big Audio (IRE)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Buzzword  3 9-0  Mahmood Al Zarooni
Canford Cliffs (IRE)  3 9-0  R Hannon
Cape Blanco (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien   
Penis Turpin (IRE)  3 9-0  R Hannon   
Elusive Pimpernel (USA)  3 9-0  J L Dunlop
Emerald Commander (IRE)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Encompassing (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien   
Fair Trade  3 9-0  D R C Elsworth
Fencing Master  3 9-0  A P O'Brien
Free Judgement (USA)  3 9-0  J S Bolger
Frozen Power (IRE)  3 9-0  Mahmood Al Zarooni
Hearts of Fire  3 9-0  Pat Eddery
Jan Vermeer (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien
Makfi  3 9-0  M Delzangles   
Noble's Promise (USA)  3 9-0  Kenneth G McPeek
Poet's Voice  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Royal Bench (IRE)  3 9-0  R Collet
Shakespearean (IRE)  3 9-0  Saeed Suroor
Siyouni (FR)  3 9-0  A de Royer-Dupre
St Nicholas Abbey (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien
Steinbeck (IRE)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien   
Viscount Nelson (USA)  3 9-0  A P O'Brien
By:
JJMSports
When: 31 May 10 22:38
Makfi, will once again beat Canford Cliffs.
By:
ben10
When: 31 May 10 22:38
Nice work Charlton Happy
By:
Charlton2005
When: 31 May 10 22:39
TY Ben  :)

Who knows, some folk may not know the horse and/or the UK folk's aversion to the word d1ck. Just keeping it real.

Happy
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 31 May 10 22:41
canford wins this in a common hack - END OF FRED
By:
downallstar
When: 31 May 10 22:51
I got 2k on at 2/1, what you on at Perp?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 31 May 10 23:09
Elusive Pimpernel and Siyouni speculative suggestions to cause an upset
By:
Kingmambo
When: 31 May 10 23:14
Between the Frenchies, Siyouni and Makfi for me, in that order.
By:
ben10
When: 31 May 10 23:16
No mention for Steinbeck :(

Cracking race
By:
Kingmambo
When: 31 May 10 23:42
I thought he ran a nice enough race at the Curragh Ben, travelled very sweetly before getting a bit tired and seemed to stay on again.  He settled pretty good held up for the first time and showed he's adaptable.  He should come on considerably for the run but it's difficult to see him improving enough to beat CC imo. 

Still, they all have a "backable" price but given his form and in a race of this quality I'd be wanting double figures rather than, for example, the 9/2 SJ price him at, an all too typical bookie over-reaction given the stable and the hype that surrounds him.
By:
ben10
When: 31 May 10 23:45
Yeah price is actually a little disappointing, sure you'll get a decent price as people pile into Canford
By:
Kingmambo
When: 01 Jun 10 00:02
Yes, CC makes the market and I guess people will fall one side or the other.  There's no doubting his ability but the day I back a horse at 6/4 to win a race like this is the day I chop my bllx off. 

Siyouni is a massive price for me and I backed him a couple of weeks ago.  He was very impressive at Longchamp on Arc day and had no race at all in the French Guineas after being tightened up at the top of the straight, when a very well supported favourite.  He's a fair bit better than Lope De Vega imo, who won that race pretty comfortably (beating D1ck of course). 

I like Makfi and think he is under-rated for an unbeaten horse and pretty easy Guineas winner.  Steinbeck is just too short for me at the moment, but he's respected.
By:
ben10
When: 01 Jun 10 00:08
Yeah I agree Siyouni should be the best of the French Guineas lot long term, he could be the value play but I'll wait for the day
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 01 Jun 10 08:14
7/4 down, can't envisage defeat.
By:
Belmez
When: 04 Jun 10 21:46
Rosanara and Siyouni will bid to put their French Guineas hard luck stories behind them at Royal Ascot later this month.

Rosanara finished fifth in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches but was promoted to fourth after suffering major interference, while Siyouni was favourite for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains but finished ninth after failing to get a run in the straight.

Both horses are owned by the Aga Khan and his racing manager Georges Rimaud is hoping they can show their true colours at the summer showpiece meeting.

He said: "Rosanara has come out of the race at Longchamp absolutely fine and she was a bit unlucky. Whether she would have won or not we'll never know, but she did race very well and came out of it good.

"She will probably go to Royal Ascot now, that would be the plan at the moment. She's still in the French Oaks, but she will probably be directed to the Coronation Stakes.

"Siyouni is in good shape as well and he could go to Ascot for the St James's Palace Stakes. He was a little bit disappointing, but he didn't really get a chance to get a run. It was unfortunate what happened, but we'll just have to see what happens next time."
By:
downallstar
When: 04 Jun 10 21:47
Was only messin perp, knew what you had Mischief[;)]
Celtic went 5/2 special on him today...
By:
Graeme83
When: 05 Jun 10 09:26
Someone is more than happy to lay Rosanara at 19s. I don't think she will run. These members of the press must get a few bob out of all this.
By:
Belmez
When: 06 Jun 10 15:26
Does anyone think that Lope de Vega's win in French 'Derby' franks **** Turpin and in turn the English 2000 Guineas form?
I've just added **** Turpin at 15.5 as have seen its been backed into 5/1 with PP
Cannot see it not being single figures on the day - estimate 7/1ish.
Looks like being a cracking race
By:
Belmez
When: 06 Jun 10 15:27
sorry 'Penis'[smiley:crazy]
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 06 Jun 10 15:29
**** = Penis

Just wonder whether Hannon will run both his in SJP?

I know they've taken each other on twice already this season but just a feeling CC will go for SJP and Penis elsewhere.
By:
Belmez
When: 06 Jun 10 15:31
Hannon has said on website a few weeks ago that as under different ownership - they are both likely to run in the SJP
By:
push
When: 06 Jun 10 15:35
Pity Lope de Vega is not entered for the race, would be following the same path as his sire.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 06 Jun 10 15:37
Fair enough, Belmez - decent bet.

Race does look an absolute cracker.
By:
top3 makin ahern and de souza
When: 07 Jun 10 00:05
siyouni has ran all over loup de vega twice [admittedly the second time he didnt catch his pacemaker in time but came from behind loup and still beat him] before getting no sort of run in the 2000g for me siyouni has to be the play in the st james palace at around 15s on here
By:
Kingmambo
When: 07 Jun 10 00:07
absolutely top3, starting to think we have a tip-top bet here...
By:
Kingmambo
When: 07 Jun 10 00:48
Just looking at this market, it makes little sense to me.   

I mean, I love the Penis, as I'm sure we all do, but there's no reason this should be half the price of Siyouni, a horse that smashed it out of sight when it got a fair go.
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 07 Jun 10 00:53
They're all just propping up Noble's Promise's price imo Mischief

Looks like a great race.
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 07 Jun 10 00:58
Re: Siyouni - always a doubt about horses coming over from France, is he a confirmed runner?
By:
Brodie
When: 07 Jun 10 01:54
Just had a quick scan of correlation between the 4 horses.

Siyouni 2 v Lope De Vega 1

Penis Turpin 2 v Canford Cliffs 0

Lope De Vega 1 v Penis Turpin 0

Had a couple of beers, so will ponder this little puzzle overnight!
By:
Bangers N Mash
When: 07 Jun 10 06:18
Canford setled so much better in Ireland, if he does again at Ascot there is only one winner
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Jun 10 09:27
Great race in prospectGrin.

Plenty of possible winners so price will dictate what I back. No one apparently fancies MakfiConfused - hope he drifts accordingly as I can see him being a maximum e/w bet for me at 4/1+

Weather forecast is pretty changeable, plenty of heavy showers and a spell or two of more prolonged rain forecast this week. Metcheck is forecasting rain again on Monday/Tuesday next week and that should really suit Makfi and probably be against Canford Cliffs.

Did they actual say what was wrong with Elusive Pimpernel last week?
By:
the lay preacher
When: 07 Jun 10 10:24
steinbeck for me as long as the ground is fast .
which it probably will be .
he wasnt off a yard at the curragh .
and im sure this has been his main target.
as usual the ballydoyle horses will start motoring pretty soon
after a slow start .
the danger is the french bred siyouni imo.
By:
Prima Donna
When: 07 Jun 10 11:12
the lay preacher     07 Jun 10 10:24 
steinbeck for me as long as the ground is fast .
which it probably will be .
he wasnt off a yard at the curragh .
and im sure this has been his main target.


Are you so sure this has been the MAIN target?This horse has been Ballydoyles talking horse,from what its shown winning its madien (beating Gold Bubbles who has not set the world on fire)then 4th in the Dewhurst running out of steam again 4th in the Irish he has it all to prove now.
People will say "don't believe the hype"I think they need to stand back and think if O'Brien had not told us all last year about the 'birds all singing in the trees when he was working'would they still hold this colt in such high regard from to date what its shown?That to me is a case of themselves being sucked in on hype.
If it runs he would be only a lay as I think time will show us he is nothing more than a classic Ballydoyle Hype horse.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 07 Jun 10 11:39
prima should have said first target.
the same thing was said about rvw last year and he turned out ok.i was happy enough with his run in the irish guineas to make me think there is more to come they often use big races as preps for another day as im sure you know.
By:
Prima Donna
When: 07 Jun 10 11:42
they often use big races as preps for another day as im sure you know.
Do they really Shockedis your twin brother ben10? Laugh
By:
Belmez
When: 07 Jun 10 22:08
Connections of Canford Cliffs believe he is unlikely to be inconvenienced by going round a bend for the first time in Ascot's St James's Palace Stakes.

Last year's Coventry Stakes winner finally lived up to the hype when running out a ready winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas.

He has ground to make up on his Newmarket conqueror Makfi and stablemate **** Turpin, who has beaten him twice already this season, but Richard Hannon jnr, the trainer's son and assistant, is feeling bullish.

"He's in very good form and he's come out of the Irish race very well," he said.

"I wouldn't have thought going round a bend will bother him, he's very straightforward. He has ducked left on occasions but he's very straightforward generally.

"They went a very good gallop in Ireland and he was able to just get a nice tow off the leaders. The way he won, he won it so well, he never looked as if he was going to be beaten. He was very impressive and it definitely suited him being held up.

"He came home so well at Newmarket I was a little bit disappointed he didn't win that day.

"He'd had a prep run and there was no issue with the trip so it was maybe the dip that beat him.

"We are taking on the winner again but we'll still fancy him."

Having finished just in front of Canford Cliffs at Newmarket in second, **** Turpin then filled the same spot in France behind subsequent impressive French Derby winner Lope De Vega.

"You've got to respect him, he's done absolutely nothing wrong and when you look at the way that horse won the French Derby yesterday, there was no shame in being beaten by him," added Hannon.

"He's suffered a bit by being in Canford Cliffs' shadow but he's a very, very good horse," he told At The Races.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 08 Jun 10 18:30
Who was 2nd and 3rd to CC in Ireland?

Sorry, who??

Happy
By:
trev w
When: 08 Jun 10 19:10
imagine if he veers left round the bendShocked
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Jun 10 20:52
Canford has more going for him than some of the other recent so-called 'good things' but the next four in the market are all possible winners and he's 0-3 this season against two of them.

So he's a lay at the prices - again, one you don't mind getting wrong because the logic is sound.

I reserve the right to revise my opinion if he hoses up obviously!
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