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29 May 10
22:35
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Date Joined:
20 Sep 06
it seems to me theres a lot of sheninagans going on with the obrien bunch.... reading between the lines over the last few days ive come to the conclusion that the one they really fancy is st nicholas abbey.
when clare balding interviewed aiden yesterday on racing post tv, it was noticable how alive he seemed to become when talking about st nick abbey in relation to the others, who he seemed quite downbeat about. he went into a long analysis of his run in the guineas while in contrast, he kept calling jan vermeer "van jermeer"
basically all this money for van smells of a red herring for me. im not totally convinced that aiden wins the derby at all but if you are thinking of lumping on one of his horses, make it st nick not van [;)]
when clare balding interviewed aiden yesterday on racing post tv, it was noticable how alive he seemed to become when talking about st nick abbey in relation to the others, who he seemed quite downbeat about. he went into a long analysis of his run in the guineas while in contrast, he kept calling jan vermeer "van jermeer"
basically all this money for van smells of a red herring for me. im not totally convinced that aiden wins the derby at all but if you are thinking of lumping on one of his horses, make it st nick not van [;)]
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In his interview with Nick Luck he said "we never work them together". NOw we hear Midas Touch worked a bit better than St Nic. Did they work together?
SNA worked well on Tue, worked average on Thur - we complain when we get no info, we complain when we get too much info.
They always leave it as late as possible to make these calls, get over it.
They always leave it as late as possible to make these calls, get over it.
I agree Mythical. I do not think Aiden has the English Derby winner in his stable!!! Hope it is Henry or Sir Michael !!! Have had £100 @ 20/1 SNA for the Derby. But am not keen on his chance, and have been very doubtful since the 2,000gns.
i think you have a good bet there my friend. however i wouldnt be so sure that he doesnt have the derby winner in his stable, forget the rest of his lot st nick is his big player. i think the derby is between st nick and rewilding, and i think the oaks is aviates to lose.
mythical prince,I agree with you regarding St.Nicholas Abbey as the Ballydoyle No'1 Derby runner,but it wont surprise me if Henry Cecils Bullet Train beats him,it would be great to see Henry win both the Derby and Oaks and good luck to him.
There is an important element missing from this discussion which for me is very significant. Keeping stumm for now see if you can get it.
Oooh the suspense. I cant bear it. Put us out of out misery, Einstein (is it something to do with Henry and/or Timepiece perchance?!)
IMO SNA is the one and if it doesn't win it then the Derby won't be won by Ballydoyle.
primo donna im not convinced that bullet train is good enough to win the derby, the lingfield race was gash really, and the time wasnt great either
im much more interested in this rewilding, think hes been greatly underestimated by the market
im much more interested in this rewilding, think hes been greatly underestimated by the market
yeah i know figgis,[;)] just that it was slowly run and the way he quickened up was impressive. i just dont think bullet train is any better than a borderline group two horse.
i mean i'm not sure how relevant speed figures are when it comes to the derby anyway, because often these are horses showing a lot of speed at shorter distances when we have no idea how they will handle the unique test of the derby.
for example st nick abbey would be a standout on 2 year old form but i suppose if im being honest we are guessing as to whether he has trained on and whether others in the race might be stronger stayers
i mean i'm not sure how relevant speed figures are when it comes to the derby anyway, because often these are horses showing a lot of speed at shorter distances when we have no idea how they will handle the unique test of the derby.
for example st nick abbey would be a standout on 2 year old form but i suppose if im being honest we are guessing as to whether he has trained on and whether others in the race might be stronger stayers
Plat, I have St Nic 87(RPT) 75(Guineas), Midas Touch 77(Derrinstown), Cape Blanco 76(Dante). The rest are some way behind, although some have excuses because they've been involved in slowly run trials. A mid 80s figure would be good enough to take most Derbys on my scale, with a very good winner in the 90s.
Thought they went a deent clip early on at Goodwood from memory
Sorry to go off topic Figgis, but does that mean that Makfi's Guineas figure was very good then ? (Just thinking about my SJP bet!!)
MP, I think generally SFs are a decent guide to the Derby, the last 5 winners I had top rated, but unfortunately for me Authorized was the only one I backed. Of course it has to be considered that not every trial is run to produce a good time. I backed North Light but he won a slowly run Dante.
Hi TD, yeah Makfi was pretty good, I have him 86. Although I reckon CC improved to 92 in the Irish version (when I laid him [:(] ). I'm not entirely convinced about CC going on to repeat that though.
so what will you be backing this year m8? st nick? and what about the oaks? i must admit that aviate reminds me of erhaab,in a funny sort of way, the way she comes from an impossible position to win the musidora.
but interesting that cecil is so keen on timepiece, as you said on another thread i'd be inclined to forget about that lingfield race, given they finished legless like 3 mile chasers around kelso on heavy ground
but interesting that cecil is so keen on timepiece, as you said on another thread i'd be inclined to forget about that lingfield race, given they finished legless like 3 mile chasers around kelso on heavy ground
No I've gone against the bare figures again, MP, I've backed Bullet Train. If St Nic can replicate his RPT win then he's going to be hard to beat but I have major doubts. If he'd only run a couple of pounds below form in the Guineas that wouldn't have been so bad, but I have him 12lbs worse. I can't put that down to the trip being too sharp for him. This was only around 6 months after he romped home over the same trip. Plus, O'Brien said that he was doing times at home that compared well with their previous good milers.
As for the Oaks, nothing has run a good time this year, I think Rumoush was flattered by the Fielden being slowly run and I'm against her.
As for the Oaks, nothing has run a good time this year, I think Rumoush was flattered by the Fielden being slowly run and I'm against her.
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