Horse Antepost
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Following on from my earlier tome 'Aidan O'Brien and the Derby since High Chapparal'
Murtagh's big race pick- Does it matter?
Er... it seems no!
For me, if Johnny Murtagh tried to pick his nose he'd struggle to know which nostril to choose. Boom Boom!
Here's a list of races (probably incomplete) where the O'Brien stable has run more than one runner and Murtagh has been beaten by a stablemate (who may or may not have won the race). Many, if not nearly all of the horses that ran in these races were MUCH shorter in the betting than their stablemates. Either Mr. Murtagh, fine racerider that he is, is a poor judge beforehand or whomever is telling him what to do is. I was under the impression that it was up to him, but who knows...
2009 Epsom Derby
2008 Epsom Derby
2008 Irish Derby
2008 St Leger
2008 Epsom Oaks
2008 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
2008 Breeders Cup Classic
2010 Irish 2000 Guineas
2010 Irish 1000 Guineas
2008 Irish 1000 Guineas
2009 Criterium International
2009 Criterium de Saint-Cloud
2009 Moyglare Stud Stakes
2009 Dante Stakes (G2)
2009 Chester Vase (G3)
2009 Dewhurst
2009 Breeders Cup Juvenile
2009 Royal Lodge (G2)
2008 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1)
2009 Cork 1m4f fillies (G3)
2010 Leopardstown 1000 Guineas trial (G3)
2008 Leopardstown 1000 Guineas trial (G3)
2009 Killavullen Stakes (G3)
2008 Ballysax Stakes (G3)
2010 Ballysax Stakes (G3)
Now sure, some of thes races were trials and some of the races featured similarly matched contenders. Also he has been on the right horse many times.
All I am trying to point out is that today's shenanigans are of little consequence but merely provide the bookmakers with an opportunity to 'play' with the odds. It is not the stable that 'puts the punters away', for they clearly, in many cases, know little more than the punters themselves.
Trust your judgement, learn your formbook and bet with confidence.
Good luck!
Murtagh's big race pick- Does it matter?
Er... it seems no!
For me, if Johnny Murtagh tried to pick his nose he'd struggle to know which nostril to choose. Boom Boom!
Here's a list of races (probably incomplete) where the O'Brien stable has run more than one runner and Murtagh has been beaten by a stablemate (who may or may not have won the race). Many, if not nearly all of the horses that ran in these races were MUCH shorter in the betting than their stablemates. Either Mr. Murtagh, fine racerider that he is, is a poor judge beforehand or whomever is telling him what to do is. I was under the impression that it was up to him, but who knows...
2009 Epsom Derby
2008 Epsom Derby
2008 Irish Derby
2008 St Leger
2008 Epsom Oaks
2008 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
2008 Breeders Cup Classic
2010 Irish 2000 Guineas
2010 Irish 1000 Guineas
2008 Irish 1000 Guineas
2009 Criterium International
2009 Criterium de Saint-Cloud
2009 Moyglare Stud Stakes
2009 Dante Stakes (G2)
2009 Chester Vase (G3)
2009 Dewhurst
2009 Breeders Cup Juvenile
2009 Royal Lodge (G2)
2008 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1)
2009 Cork 1m4f fillies (G3)
2010 Leopardstown 1000 Guineas trial (G3)
2008 Leopardstown 1000 Guineas trial (G3)
2009 Killavullen Stakes (G3)
2008 Ballysax Stakes (G3)
2010 Ballysax Stakes (G3)
Now sure, some of thes races were trials and some of the races featured similarly matched contenders. Also he has been on the right horse many times.
All I am trying to point out is that today's shenanigans are of little consequence but merely provide the bookmakers with an opportunity to 'play' with the odds. It is not the stable that 'puts the punters away', for they clearly, in many cases, know little more than the punters themselves.
Trust your judgement, learn your formbook and bet with confidence.
Good luck!
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Great post. Murtagh a fine man, but a useless judge.
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Yeah, excellent post.
I guess a lot of it is mental for the punter. If Murtagh has had the choice of more than one you want to think that he picked the one you backed as the best in the yard, or if you're undecided about which to back you've got to assume that he's likely to know a bit more than you! Without delving any deeper to see who he picked vs who he could have in all the races, there were only 2 choices that really irritated me at the time. Last year was Rip Van Winkle in the Derby. I really couldn't see how he could have picked that one over Fame and Glory. As it turned out he was absolutely correct to do so, neither could possibly have won on the day and Rip turned out to live up to all the hype they'd built up around him The other was Duke of Marmalade in the BC Classic. On bare form I couldn't understand how he could have taken that one over Henrythenavigator but I guess he looked at it similar to Ruby Walsh and staying loyal to Kauto Star. The list does definitely reinforce that they just do not know which is the best all the time until the race has been run. |
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There's 16 Group 1's on that list over 2 and a bit seasons.
Quite a lot isn't it? The absolute cream of the crop, for those that remember it, was Adored in the 2008 Oaks. One of the worst rides i've ever seen. Chased leader until led after 2f, ridden and headed over 3f out, soon weakened, virtually pulled up final furlong, tailed off |
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I think if Murtagh was to desert SNA after all that's been said then that would be hugely significant to his chances, I still think if he runs Murtagh rides him though. Agree with whichever of the others he picked, they all go there with a chance, they wouldn't let them have a go if they didn't think they could win.
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By way of balance, in that time Murtagh has won 28 G1s for the O'Brien stable:
5x Duke of Marmalade 4x Henrythenavigator 4x Mastercraftsman 3x Yeats 3x Fame and Glory 2x Rip Van Winkle 1x Soldier of Fortune 1x Haradasun 1x Mount Nelson 1x Moonstone 1x Halfway to Heaven 1x Alfred Nobel 1x St Nicholas Abbey In these races the horse has been : Favourite: 14 times 2nd favourite: 7 times Only realistic contender supplied by stable: 20 times |
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Jair very interesting post - obviously a very knowledgeable guy and am therefore reluctant to be critical......
....However, I have to take exception to your point ".....it's not the stable that puts the punters away......." well in the case of Ballydoyle I am afraid to say that it is VERY much the stable who puts the punters away - AoB is without doubt one of the most dubious and rotten characters in the business of horse racing - HE serves only himself/connections and plays with the very people who keep this sport 'alive' - the bookies (all equally culpable) are only the vehicle by which ballydoyle make their fortune. How can YOU trust your judgement and bet with confidence when a crook like this man feeds the media with a litany of 'misinformation' or darn right lies to give it its correct term? I will eagerly await the next story from ballydoyle and watch how the market reacts - the one certainty is that this mafia will be coining it in as a result! As for Mr Murtagh - all I would add is that he went to the US very recently with one of (if not thee best) milers about and made him (MC) look blo. ody useless running him up a dead end street with little more than a bunch of second rate donkies to beat! Similarly (in the BC classic) he made rvw look like a blackpool beach donkey - great jock.....? Not in my book! As an Irish man oB and his crew makes me ashamed. So there you have my thoughts........... ;-) |
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Agree with Jair, the more Ballydoyle put in a race, the more im inclined to scratch the lot of them for betting purposes..
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If I was Aidan O'Brien and I read that I think you'd be getting a letter from my solicitor.
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I believe:
They haven't the foggiest which is their best horse therefore it's impossible to be putting people away They are a breeding operation with little/scant consideration for Joe Punter for he is not their customer The bookies are entirely responsible for messing about with the Derby market and in cahoots with the Racing Post take every joy announcing every tinpot bet with a huge headline and a price cut knowing full well that people will just 'follow the money' from this yard.There have been 'gambles' on all of the 4 possible runners and the bookies reaction to trials and mdeia hype are responsible for that. |
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Mr Jackson which court would it go to...???
The one in lala land...???? I can only assume you work for ballydoyle. |
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I don't work for Coolmore or in Ballydoyle. Have no connection with them at all.
If I was Aidan O'Brien I'd be paying my solicitor to tell me what court to take it to. Words like dubious, rotten and crook are a lot harsh in my opinion for a fella on the payroll, just doing his job. |
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MickInGoldersGreen 28 May 10 23:26
....However, I have to take exception to your point ".....it's not the stable that puts the punters away......." well in the case of Ballydoyle I am afraid to say that it is VERY much the stable who puts the punters away - AoB is without doubt one of the most dubious and rotten characters in the business of horse racing - HE serves only himself/connections and plays with the very people who keep this sport 'alive' - the bookies (all equally culpable) are only the vehicle by which ballydoyle make their fortune. How can YOU trust your judgement and bet with confidence when a crook like this man feeds the media with a litany of 'misinformation' or darn right lies to give it its correct term? Mick with all due respect my friend I have to say that is the biggest load of rubbish I’ve ever read on any thread on this Forum. What a load of absolute bollox. The simple fact is that Ballydoyle place their horses to best effect for the horse and its connections. Very often this can mean a late decision due to ground conditions, the make up of the field, the last piece of work the horse put in etc etc. To say that they are crooks who deliberately set out to deceive the racing public is at the very least scandalous and at its worst libelous. Quite simply Ballydoyle have bigger issues on their mind than the 2 quid each way that you put on down the high street. |
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I'd go lie down Mick
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Soldier, I am with you 100% here. They have bigger fish to fry. GL next week.
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Thanks Charlton all the best to you too.
Best chance of taking this since 2002!  |
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good man sof well said
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........?........
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midas touch wins
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Jair - an excellent post. One to save away for future reference.
I'd be interested to know more about the horse/jockey from APOBs that beat JM & hi smount.....does that enlighten us in any way? |
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Fair play to MICKINGOLDERSGREEN.For comeing on here and saying it exactly as he finds it.At least it is a bit of entertainment.Far be it from running to solictors would be o`brien or murtagh should they read this,for they would be breaking their bolloxs laughing. I am not agreeing with his opinions,but will allways applaud anybody for voiceing an opinion,no matter how strongly. personaly what I am inclined to belive is what aidan said on R.T.E. last week( things change from day to day,ye probaly know as mutch about them or who`s going where as I DO) or words loosly to that effect. |
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Kev
Only knocked that together in an hour so lacks some detail... The second post is more revealing on that front ie: 20/28 Group 1's were won when they had one clear main contender. Their record mob handed ie. last 2 Derbies, both Irish Guineas this year, appears less impressive |
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To imagine that Ballydoyle are not at least 95% certain who is going where is laughable if for instance SNA goes but with some reservations surely they will send JV and MT as well CB for France they could give a much clearer picture than they are
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To imagine that Ballydoyle are not at least 95% certain who is going where is laughable if for instance SNA goes but with some reservations surely they will send JV and MT as well CB for France they could give a much clearer picture than they are
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He will see Midas Touch go whooooooooooooooooooosh past him but it is nice of him to ride the Pacemaker
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midas touch snaff.
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Just had Bruce Millington on the radio saying "Murtagh rarely get it wrong"
sums the Racing Post up tbh. |
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On this occasion, I think it does matter.
Considering how bullish they have been with SNA, it would be very significant if Murtagh hops off it. |
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They are unlikely to have the winner if Murtagh hops off SNA. Jan Vermeer is a ridiculously short price now considering they havent had the Derby winner from tons of darts for years.
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If Murtagh hops off, i'd be quite surprised if SNA ran. If he runs, Murtagh rides him as all the plans and hype have suggested that he would.
Will they win it? They ran SNA alone in the RP Trophy and he won well, those being the circumstances they tend to win big races, rarely with a mob of them. It remains quite a conundrum. |
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Hey I was right!
Been on holiday all week, lovely, thanks for asking... You can stick 2010 Epsom Derby onto the list. Bit of a cracker too, not even getting by the pacemaker. Worth considering for this week's Coventry Stakes too. Possibly value on the Moore horse come the day... |
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AND:
2010 Prix de Jockey Club |
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*du
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I'm just gonna keep this going:
2010 St James Palace Stakes 2010 Coventry Stakes |
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At this stage i'd say even SOF is getting sick of they hype machine, mind you maybe steinbect is one for the future.
By the way jair, you missed out on one of my favourites; 2009 Barley Yorkshire Oaks won by Dar re mi. good example imo. |
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Good work
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Good effort Rowley.
All additions gratefully received! |
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I agree I dont like him either. glad someone else said it because everyone would think I was just fishing again.
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wait sorry...you said PICK...very late...i read it as big race pr ick.
:o my bad. |