--------------------- Irish 1000 guineas -------------------

Oopss made a hash of it already. The first list in bold should be probabilities.

Music Show and revenge

Agree with Downy,but ground is the worry,has to be fast imo[smiley:crazy]

tt trainer said she'll run unless its softer than GS, and it won't be softer than Good, we've had no rain, and the next 4-5 days are going to be 18-20degrees.

Downy,yeah i know the forecast is good,but you know the weather

Yep, I should not really be tempting fate

canford cliffs this race was made for him 1 mile and likely softish ground. according to hannon jun. he is a definate runner as well.

sorry 2.000 guineas.

sorry 2.000 guineas.

The one that sticks out at me is anna salai from the list of probabilities.

If Music Show runs she wins IMO. But is she not more likely to go to Ascot? From what I've read that is the impression I've got from Channon.

Scrap the above. Must of had my head in the French guineas clouds too much this weekend.

downsy...got any trends for this ydc?

is cecils filly going over ??

Bethrah for me...

Show and Gile headline acts at the Curragh
Tue, 18th May, 2010

Mick Channon's Music Show and Jim Bolger's Gile Na Greine are the headline acts among 20 fillies left in Sunday's Etihad Airways Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh.
Last year's Rockfel Stakes winner Music Show had to contend with an unfavourable draw in the Newmarket version where she finished sixth, performing best of those drawn high.

Gile Na Greine made a brave late bid up the rail to finish third behind Jacqueline Quest and Special Duty and she could be joined by stablemate Atasari.

Other British-based challengers include Charlie McBride's Blue Maiden, just behind Music Show in the Nell Gwyn, and Stan Moore's Lady Darshaan while Mahmood Al Zarooni's Anna Salai, a recent recruit from France, has been supplemented.

Aidan O'Brien has his usual army engaged in the Classic with Famous, Full Of Hope, Lillie Langtry, Queen Of Troy and Remember When all possibles.

Kevin Prendergast will be looking forward to seeing the unbeaten Termagent return to action and Tommy Stack has two possibles, also both unbeaten, in Cnocandancer and Lolly For Dolly, who is another supplementary entry.

Lady Springbank and Bethrah are other interesting fillies still engaged.

1    2-   
Anna Salai
b f Dubawi (FR) - Anna Palariva (FR)
(290) (Godolphin)
Mahmood Al Zarooni

2    22-82   
Atasari
b f Whipper (USA) - Azra (IRE)
(15)  (Mrs J S Bolger) Rated 105
J S Bolger

3    0-11   
Bethrah
br f Marju (IRE) - Reve D'Iman (FR)
(15) (Hamdan Al Maktoum) Rated 103
D K Weld

4    25-29   
Blue Maiden
b f Medicean (GB) - Bluebelle (GB)
(22) (Peter Charter)
P J McBride

5    1   
Cnocandancer
ch f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Dancing Diva (FR)
(21) (Newtown Anner Stud Farm Ltd)
T Stack

6    175-3   
Crystal Gal
b f Galileo (IRE) - Park Crystal (IRE)
(57) (P O'Grady & Philip M Lloyd) Rated 96
Kevin Prendergast

7    24-02   
Famous
gr f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Starlight Dreams (USA)
(21) (Derrick Smith, Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor) Rated 103
A P O'Brien

8    2187   
Full Of Hope
b f Invincible Spirit (IRE) - Tathkara (USA)
(15) (Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier) Rated 92
A P O'Brien

9    15-23   
Gile Na Greine
b f Galileo (IRE) - Scribonia (IRE)
(22) (Mrs J S Bolger & D H W Dobson) Rated 110
J S Bolger

10    132-0   
Lady Darshaan
b f High Chaparral (IRE) - Diary (IRE)
(22) (Coleman Bloodstock Limited)
J S Moore

11    361-1   
Lady Springbank
gr f Choisir (AUS) - Severa (GER)
(57) (Mark Gittins) Rated 104
P D Deegan

12    1318-   
Lillie Langtry
b f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Hoity Toity (GB)
(199) (Michael Tabor) Rated 108
A P O'Brien

13    11   
Lolly For Dolly
b f Oratorio (IRE) - Heart Stopping (USA)
(21)  (D Keoghan)
T Stack

14    01-16   
Music Show
b f Noverre (USA) - Dreamboat (USA)
(22) (Jaber Abdullah)
M R Channon

15    7306   
Queen Of Troy
b f Storm Cat (USA) - Warrior Queen (USA)
(15) (Mrs John Magnier & Paul James Fleming) Rated 92
A P O'Brien

16    2-3   
Remember When
ch f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Lagrion (USA)
(22) (Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor)
A P O'Brien

17    40-5   
Silk Slippers
b f Oasis Dream (GB) - Interpose (GB)
(29) (Shanakiel Racing Syndicate) Rated 60
John Joseph Murphy

18    116-3   
Song Of My Heart
ch f Footstepsinthesand (GB) - Catch The Moon (IRE)
(43) (Sir Robert Ogden) Rated 102
David Wachman

19    11-   
Termagant
b f Powerscourt (GB) - Rock Salt (GB)
(267) (J Vasicek)
Kevin Prendergast

20    146-4   
What About Me
b f Bertolini (USA) - Marefonic (GB)
(43) (Mrs Annette Nolan) Rated 94

Still sticking to Anna Salai. I strongly fancy her to win, as she looks a very nice prospect and the Prix De La Grotte run holds up well. I'd expect a very close run from her at least.

Why's Seta not lining up ?! straight to Coronation? ta

termagant e/w 8/1 looks ok to me....

I really like Termagant too, looked a good one last year and am happy to follow her through at 3.

I think Music Show at 4/1 with Pa.ddys and a few others is great value personally. I can't have Gile Na Greine and personally I think Atasari could be the main danger. Was just touched off by Music Show in the Rockfel last year and didn't run it's race in the Nell Gwynn. She could be the main danger and the one for the forcast.

Forcast is for rain today and tomorrow and then dry from Friday. 4/1 looks cracking value IMO.

Trends, thanks to Racecaller

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 7-12-92
British bred: 3-1-20
American bred: 0-5-27
French bred: 0-1-1
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
3 winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells and 2 were sired by Pivotal
It’s worth noting that Danehill Dancer sired the winner of both the Irish 1000 and 2000 Guineas in 2009.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had at least 4 previous starts
9 of 10 winners had run that season
8 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
7 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (2 of other 3 had been unplaced in 2 group 1's)

Other Races
English 1000 Guineas winner: 181 (2-0-3)
Record of horses that finished 2nd/3rd/4th in 1000 Guineas: 45230250660500 (0-3-14)
Rockfel Stakes winner (Music Show): 5102 (1-1-4)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Termagent): 042651 (1-1-6)
Leopardstown Debutante Stakes winner (Lillie Langtry): 00681 (1-0-5)
C. L. Weld Park Stakes winner (Lady Springbank): 61090085 (1-0-8)
Derrinstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Bethrah): 00962343 (0-3-8)
Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Lady Springbank): 258003 (0-2-6)
Athasi Stakes winner (Lolly For Dolly): 9880 (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in English 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 88161
2 of 10 winners ran in French 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 23
3 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 631
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 610
3 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 231
3 of 10 winners ran in the Weld Park Stakes, finishing 127
2 of 10 winners ran in the Leopardstown Debutante Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the 2yo Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile, finishing 41

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-6-38) has won 3 of the last 10 however he has sent out 38 runners in the race in the past 10 years (approximately 27% of total runners). His first strings have a record of 1-4-10.
Dermot Weld (1-3-15), Jim Bolger (1-3-12) and David Wachman (1-1-6) have all saddled the winner once in the past 10 years.
British-trained runners (3-4-30) have won 3 of the last 10 from approximately 21.4% of the total runners.

Price
7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
There were a few shocks around the turn of the century but the longest priced winner since 2002 has been 12/1 with 6 of last 8 winners going off at 13/2 or shorter.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 3.40 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Sired by a group 1 winner
·         Run at least 4 times
·         Had last start in past 21 days
·         Won over 7F or further
·         Won or placed in a group 1
·         Ran in the English 1000 Guineas last time out
·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Britain
·         From first 4 in the betting

Music Show would be the one for me at this stage too. Should be hard fit and progressive.

What's the lastest on Lillie Langtry .. she had a fracture of somekind didnt she ..

2 possible worries about Music Show.

Firstly I remember Channons' Nahoodh being 'unlucky' at Newmarket and then going off favourite for the Irish 1,000 and disappointing badly?

Secondly her one bad run came at Ayr when she had to travel a long way from home (maybe including an overnight stay). I know she was badly drawn that day but even allowing for that she ran miles below form for some reason, and maybe that was the travelling etc?

On breeding Gile na Greine should love the faster ground so at the prices I think I'll back her to confirm the form.

Is it more than likely the Godolphin horse will run seeing as it's been supplemented. Perhaps it could just be the case that they have so much money she still might not run ?

I've no patience to wait on little scraps of information. My bets for the race have been concluded, and i have a good feeling about her. I liked her before i saw her breeding line, so the fact that Makfi is out of Dubawi and also won a group 3 in France before coming over is a bonus !!

The only worry about Anna is the word Godolphin, if she was with Fabre, steam in job.

It doesn't put me off. They banged the winner in last season.

Again won last year, not God. Watchman

It was meant to say 'winners' and not 'winner'. I've never been put of a good horse because Godolphin train it. They banged in the winners last year.

1        2-   
Anna Salai
b f Dubawi (IRE) - Anna Palariva (IRE)
9-0 (290) (Godolphin) (Drawn 12)
Mahmood Al Zarooni
A Ajtebi

2        22-82   
Atasari
b f Whipper (USA) - Azra (IRE)
9-0 (B) (15)  (Mrs J S Bolger) (Drawn 3) Rated 105
J S Bolger
D J Moran

3        0-11   
Bethrah
br f Marju (IRE) - Reve D'Iman (FR)
9-0 (15) (Hamdan Al Maktoum) (Drawn 8) Rated 103
D K Weld
P J Smullen

4        25-29   
Blue Maiden
b f Medicean (GB) - Bluebelle (GB)
9-0 (22) (Peter Charter) (Drawn 5)
P J McBride
K Fallon

5        1   
Cnocandancer
ch f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Dancing Diva (FR)
9-0 (21) (Newtown Anner Stud Farm Ltd ) (Drawn 1)
T Stack
W J Lee

6        175-3   
Crystal Gal
b f Galileo (IRE) - Park Crystal (IRE)
9-0 (57) (P O'Grady & Philip M Lloyd) (Drawn 10) Rated 96
Kevin Prendergast
C D Hayes

7        24-02   
Famous
gr f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Starlight Dreams (USA)
9-0 (21) (Derrick Smith, Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor) (Drawn 17) Rated 103
A P O'Brien
(---)

8        2187   
Full Of Hope
b f Invincible Spirit (IRE) - Tathkara (USA)
9-0 (15) (Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier) (Drawn 4) Rated 92
A P O'Brien
(---)

9        15-23   
Gile Na Greine
b f Galileo (IRE) - Scribonia (IRE)
9-0 (22) (Mrs J S Bolger & D H W Dobson) (Drawn 19) Rated 110
J S Bolger
K J Manning

10        132-0   
Lady Darshaan
b f High Chaparral (IRE) - Diary (IRE)
9-0 (22) (Coleman Bloodstock Limited) (Drawn 16)
J S Moore
R Hughes

11        361-1   
Lady Springbank
gr f Choisir (AUS) - Severa (GER)
9-0 (57) (Mark Gittins) (Drawn 9) Rated 104
P D Deegan
James Crowley

12        1318-   
Lillie Langtry
b f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Hoity Toity (GB)
9-0 (199) (Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier) (Drawn 6) Rated 108
A P O'Brien
(---)

13        11   
Lolly For Dolly
b f Oratorio (IRE) - Heart Stopping (USA)
9-0 (21)  (D Keoghan) (Drawn 14)
T Stack
W M Lordan

14        01-16   
Music Show
b f Noverre (USA) - Dreamboat (USA)
9-0 (22) (Jaber Abdullah) (Drawn 7)
M R Channon
R L Moore

15        7306   
Queen Of Troy
b f Storm Cat (USA) - Warrior Queen (USA)
9-0 (15) (Mrs John Magnier & Paul James Fleming) (Drawn 13) Rated 92
A P O'Brien
(---)

16        2-3   
Remember When
ch f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Lagrion (USA)
9-0 (22) (Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor) (Drawn 11)
A P O'Brien
(---)

17        116-3   
Song Of My Heart
ch f Footstepsinthesand (GB) - Catch The Moon (IRE)
9-0 (43) (Sir Robert Ogden) (Drawn 18) Rated 102
David Wachman
(---)

18        11-   
Termagant
b f Powerscourt (GB) - Rock Salt (GB)
9-0 (267) (J Vasicek) (Drawn 2)
Kevin Prendergast
D P McDonogh

19        146-4   
What About Me
b f Bertolini (USA) - Marefonic (GB)
9-0 (43) (Mrs Annette Nolan) (Drawn 15) Rated 94

Horrow draw for Termagant there.

Anna Salai...ON...THE...SNAFF....before a winning supplementary into the Oaks.

The boys are back imo.

How significant is the draw at the Curragh, quite a shallow bend which gives those on the outside a chance from what I remember?

HM, not won this yet but do you really think AS wants the Oaks trip?

In my experience you want to be high, or, more accurately, you definitely don't want to be too low.

Re: AS, would be very wrong to say I think she wants 12f, and it's early days with Dubawi, but I wonder if he'll be one of those sires that frequently defer to the dam in terms of stamina.  His own close pedigree would have you think he'd have wanted further than a mile.  Dubai M was a 10f horse, Zom won the Italian Okas on heavy ground.  There's plenty of help on AS's dam side anyway, Park Hill winner, Caerleon etc.  Godolphin (used to) have the ability to get horses to outrun their pedigrees too (stamina-wise), like Venetia over the sticks.  Anyway, Dubawi's clocked a 2000 Gns winner () and I think they'd be rather keen to get a 12f classic on his record. I suspect, with Wedding March already sunk and Hibaayeb putting it all on the line on Sunday, they may feel like having a crack at Epsom if she runs well at the Curragh.

Sometimes you just have to admit that a race is too difficult.  The Irish 1000 Guineas this year is one of those races.  Music Show, Gile Na Greine, Termagant and Anna Salai look closely matched, and there's a good support cast including Lillie Langtry, Lolly For Dolly and Lady Springbank.  I can't find a suitable angle on this race, so I shan't be betting.

If Music Show can repeat the form she has shown at Newmarket I can't see her being beaten. A bit of 9/2 is now about which I consider more than fair. I've tried to be objective, having backed her for the Newmarket Guineas, and I honestly think she would've won with a level playing field there. cruise d, I'm with you again, let's hope it goes our way this time.

Anna Salai will win this!!!

Blue Maiden at 33/1 might be worth a punt.  Don't think she liked the ground in the English 1000 but her previous run gives her an e/w chance.  Trainer form is an added bonus.

Not a word of congratulations!

well done jair

good shout jair.

Everybody in shock innit,but well done Jair,enjoy [;)]

well done Jair

ah, ya shouldn't have

good people y'all... 

Was wondering if anybody had backed her at the time,looked at bottom of thread and nothing ,so presumed not.[:p]  was wrong

call jair[;)]

Superb call jair, well done mate

Mind you, Lillie would have nailed you in a few more strides!

Well in jair.



I think Anna Salai will go for the Prix Diane now. She ran a ncie race.

Great call jair, well played