--------------------- Irish 1000 guineas -------------------

Music Show and revenge

tt trainer said she'll run unless its softer than GS, and it won't be softer than Good, we've had no rain, and the next 4-5 days are going to be 18-20degrees.

Yep, I should not really be tempting fate

sorry 2.000 guineas.

The one that sticks out at me is anna salai from the list of probabilities.

Scrap the above. Must of had my head in the French guineas clouds too much this weekend.

Bethrah for me...

1    2-   
Anna Salai
b f Dubawi (FR) - Anna Palariva (FR)
(290) (Godolphin)
Mahmood Al Zarooni

2    22-82   
Atasari
b f Whipper (USA) - Azra (IRE)
(15)  (Mrs J S Bolger) Rated 105
J S Bolger

3    0-11   
Bethrah
br f Marju (IRE) - Reve D'Iman (FR)
(15) (Hamdan Al Maktoum) Rated 103
D K Weld

4    25-29   
Blue Maiden
b f Medicean (GB) - Bluebelle (GB)
(22) (Peter Charter)
P J McBride

5    1   
Cnocandancer
ch f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Dancing Diva (FR)
(21) (Newtown Anner Stud Farm Ltd)
T Stack

6    175-3   
Crystal Gal
b f Galileo (IRE) - Park Crystal (IRE)
(57) (P O'Grady & Philip M Lloyd) Rated 96
Kevin Prendergast

7    24-02   
Famous
gr f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Starlight Dreams (USA)
(21) (Derrick Smith, Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor) Rated 103
A P O'Brien

8    2187   
Full Of Hope
b f Invincible Spirit (IRE) - Tathkara (USA)
(15) (Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier) Rated 92
A P O'Brien

9    15-23   
Gile Na Greine
b f Galileo (IRE) - Scribonia (IRE)
(22) (Mrs J S Bolger & D H W Dobson) Rated 110
J S Bolger

10    132-0   
Lady Darshaan
b f High Chaparral (IRE) - Diary (IRE)
(22) (Coleman Bloodstock Limited)
J S Moore

11    361-1   
Lady Springbank
gr f Choisir (AUS) - Severa (GER)
(57) (Mark Gittins) Rated 104
P D Deegan

12    1318-   
Lillie Langtry
b f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Hoity Toity (GB)
(199) (Michael Tabor) Rated 108
A P O'Brien

13    11   
Lolly For Dolly
b f Oratorio (IRE) - Heart Stopping (USA)
(21)  (D Keoghan)
T Stack

14    01-16   
Music Show
b f Noverre (USA) - Dreamboat (USA)
(22) (Jaber Abdullah)
M R Channon

15    7306   
Queen Of Troy
b f Storm Cat (USA) - Warrior Queen (USA)
(15) (Mrs John Magnier & Paul James Fleming) Rated 92
A P O'Brien

16    2-3   
Remember When
ch f Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Lagrion (USA)
(22) (Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor)
A P O'Brien

17    40-5   
Silk Slippers
b f Oasis Dream (GB) - Interpose (GB)
(29) (Shanakiel Racing Syndicate) Rated 60
John Joseph Murphy

18    116-3   
Song Of My Heart
ch f Footstepsinthesand (GB) - Catch The Moon (IRE)
(43) (Sir Robert Ogden) Rated 102
David Wachman

19    11-   
Termagant
b f Powerscourt (GB) - Rock Salt (GB)
(267) (J Vasicek)
Kevin Prendergast

20    146-4   
What About Me
b f Bertolini (USA) - Marefonic (GB)
(43) (Mrs Annette Nolan) Rated 94

Why's Seta not lining up ?! straight to Coronation? ta

I really like Termagant too, looked a good one last year and am happy to follow her through at 3.

Trends, thanks to Racecaller

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 7-12-92
British bred: 3-1-20
American bred: 0-5-27
French bred: 0-1-1
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
3 winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells and 2 were sired by Pivotal
It’s worth noting that Danehill Dancer sired the winner of both the Irish 1000 and 2000 Guineas in 2009.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had at least 4 previous starts
9 of 10 winners had run that season
8 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
7 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (2 of other 3 had been unplaced in 2 group 1's)

Other Races
English 1000 Guineas winner: 181 (2-0-3)
Record of horses that finished 2nd/3rd/4th in 1000 Guineas: 45230250660500 (0-3-14)
Rockfel Stakes winner (Music Show): 5102 (1-1-4)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Termagent): 042651 (1-1-6)
Leopardstown Debutante Stakes winner (Lillie Langtry): 00681 (1-0-5)
C. L. Weld Park Stakes winner (Lady Springbank): 61090085 (1-0-8)
Derrinstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Bethrah): 00962343 (0-3-8)
Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Lady Springbank): 258003 (0-2-6)
Athasi Stakes winner (Lolly For Dolly): 9880 (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in English 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 88161
2 of 10 winners ran in French 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 23
3 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 631
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 610
3 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 231
3 of 10 winners ran in the Weld Park Stakes, finishing 127
2 of 10 winners ran in the Leopardstown Debutante Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the 2yo Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile, finishing 41

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-6-38) has won 3 of the last 10 however he has sent out 38 runners in the race in the past 10 years (approximately 27% of total runners). His first strings have a record of 1-4-10.
Dermot Weld (1-3-15), Jim Bolger (1-3-12) and David Wachman (1-1-6) have all saddled the winner once in the past 10 years.
British-trained runners (3-4-30) have won 3 of the last 10 from approximately 21.4% of the total runners.

Price
7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
There were a few shocks around the turn of the century but the longest priced winner since 2002 has been 12/1 with 6 of last 8 winners going off at 13/2 or shorter.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 3.40 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Sired by a group 1 winner
·         Run at least 4 times
·         Had last start in past 21 days
·         Won over 7F or further
·         Won or placed in a group 1
·         Ran in the English 1000 Guineas last time out
·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Britain
·         From first 4 in the betting

2 possible worries about Music Show.

Firstly I remember Channons' Nahoodh being 'unlucky' at Newmarket and then going off favourite for the Irish 1,000 and disappointing badly?

Secondly her one bad run came at Ayr when she had to travel a long way from home (maybe including an overnight stay). I know she was badly drawn that day but even allowing for that she ran miles below form for some reason, and maybe that was the travelling etc?

On breeding Gile na Greine should love the faster ground so at the prices I think I'll back her to confirm the form.

I've no patience to wait on little scraps of information. My bets for the race have been concluded, and i have a good feeling about her. I liked her before i saw her breeding line, so the fact that Makfi is out of Dubawi and also won a group 3 in France before coming over is a bonus !!

It doesn't put me off. They banged the winner in last season.

It was meant to say 'winners' and not 'winner'. I've never been put of a good horse because Godolphin train it. They banged in the winners last year.

Horrow draw for Termagant there.

Anna Salai...ON...THE...SNAFF....before a winning supplementary into the Oaks.

The boys are back imo.

In my experience you want to be high, or, more accurately, you definitely don't want to be too low.

Re: AS, would be very wrong to say I think she wants 12f, and it's early days with Dubawi, but I wonder if he'll be one of those sires that frequently defer to the dam in terms of stamina.  His own close pedigree would have you think he'd have wanted further than a mile.  Dubai M was a 10f horse, Zom won the Italian Okas on heavy ground.  There's plenty of help on AS's dam side anyway, Park Hill winner, Caerleon etc.  Godolphin (used to) have the ability to get horses to outrun their pedigrees too (stamina-wise), like Venetia over the sticks.  Anyway, Dubawi's clocked a 2000 Gns winner () and I think they'd be rather keen to get a 12f classic on his record. I suspect, with Wedding March already sunk and Hibaayeb putting it all on the line on Sunday, they may feel like having a crack at Epsom if she runs well at the Curragh.

If Music Show can repeat the form she has shown at Newmarket I can't see her being beaten. A bit of 9/2 is now about which I consider more than fair. I've tried to be objective, having backed her for the Newmarket Guineas, and I honestly think she would've won with a level playing field there. cruise d, I'm with you again, let's hope it goes our way this time.

Blue Maiden at 33/1 might be worth a punt.  Don't think she liked the ground in the English 1000 but her previous run gives her an e/w chance.  Trainer form is an added bonus.