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Ascot Analysis

Me2

16 May 10 17:59

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Date Joined: 23 May 08

| Topic/replies: 848 | Blogger: Me2's blog

I've found it too much to keep the staying h'caps thread going, now that the season is in full swing, and I'm no longer on holiday. They've never been something that I've bet on in general, and I've struggled to get into it.

I've been wondering what I should do by way of penitence.

I'm doing some work on Southwell, but it seems sensible to keep that to myself. I've come across some comments about Ascot now suiting All-Weather types of runners since the re-development.

Well, here is an initial list of winning sires at Ascot since 2006. Haven't had much look at it myself, except to notice that Montjeu has had a few big-priced winners, and Oasis Dream had a good year last year.

22/1 Acclamation 17/06/2008
4/1 Act One 29/09/2007
3/1 Act One 12/07/2008
4/1 Act One 09/08/2008
9/1 Alhaarth 10/10/2009
100/30 Almutawakel 12/08/2006
33/1 Almutawakel 21/06/2007
9/2 Alzao 24/06/2006
100/30 Alzao 23/06/2007
4/1 Anabaa 29/07/2007
7/2 Anabaa 26/07/2009
33/1 Arch 24/06/2006
20/1 Bahamian Bounty 18/06/2009
8/1 Bahamian Bounty 28/04/2010
14/1 Bahri 22/09/2006
16/1 Barathea 20/06/2007
11/4 Barathea 08/05/2010
10/1 Beat Hollow 26/09/2008
8/1 Bertolini 12/08/2006
33/1 Bin Ajwaad 22/06/2007
15/2 Black Minnaloushe 10/07/2009
66/1 Bluebird 29/07/2007
5/4 Bold Edge 13/07/2007
3/1 Bold Edge 28/07/2007
20/1 Bold Edge 10/10/2009
15/8 Cadeaux Genereux 30/04/2008
25/1 Cadeaux Genereux 09/05/2009
8/1 Cape Cross 21/06/2006
14/1 Cape Cross 23/09/2006
20/1 Cape Cross 07/10/2006
4/1 Cape Cross 18/06/2008
11/2 Cape Cross 11/07/2008
9/4 Cape Cross 26/09/2008
4/1 Cape Cross 11/07/2009
9/4 Cape Cross 24/07/2009
20/1 Cape Cross 25/09/2009
5/1 Cape Cross 28/04/2010
4/1 Carson City 30/04/2008
7/1 Celtic Swing 20/06/2006
4/1 Chichicastenango 17/06/2009
9/2 Choisir 26/09/2008
9/1 Choisir 27/09/2008
9/1 Choisir 08/08/2009
7/2 Clodovil 27/07/2008
9/2 College Chapel 11/08/2007
20/1 Compton Place 13/10/2007
3/1 Cyrano De Bergerac 09/08/2008
11/10 Dalakhani 09/05/2009
13/8 Dalakhani 25/07/2009
11/4 Danehill 23/09/2006
11/2 Danehill 23/09/2006
13/8 Danehill 23/09/2006
16/1 Danehill 24/09/2006
6/5 Danehill 24/09/2006
7/2 Danehill 02/05/2007
8/13 Danehill 12/05/2007
8/1 Danehill 23/06/2007
6/1 Danehill 14/07/2007
5/4 Danehill 28/07/2007
13/8 Danehill 30/09/2007
Evens Danehill 18/06/2008
8/1 Danehill 21/06/2008
4/6 Danehill 26/07/2008
9/2 Danehill Dancer 21/06/2006
7/1 Danehill Dancer 28/07/2006
9/4 Danehill Dancer 28/07/2006
15/8 Danehill Dancer 07/10/2006
9/4 Danehill Dancer 02/05/2007
8/1 Danehill Dancer 28/09/2007
5/6 Danehill Dancer 16/06/2009
4/1 Danehill Dancer 17/06/2009
10/1 Danetime 24/06/2006
16/1 Danetime 08/05/2010
7/1 Dansili 30/07/2006
11/10 Dansili 13/07/2007
9/1 Dansili 19/06/2009
4/6 Dansili 24/07/2009
11/1 Dansili 08/08/2009
16/1 Dansili 28/04/2010
6/4 Dansili 28/04/2010
7/2 Danzero 12/05/2007
13/2 Danzig 20/06/2006
4/1 Danzig 23/06/2006
11/2 Danzig 28/07/2006
8/1 Danzig 30/09/2007
11/8 Danzig 26/09/2008
7/2 Danzig 27/09/2009
5/4 Darshaan 29/09/2007
4/1 Daylami 27/09/2009
7/1 Deploy 27/07/2007
9/2 Desert Prince 12/08/2006
5/1 Desert Prince 12/05/2007
16/1 Desert Prince 27/07/2007
6/1 Desert Prince 26/07/2008
100/30 Desert Style 16/06/2009
7/1 Desert Sun 28/07/2006
7/2 Desert Sun 09/05/2009
8/1 Diesis 30/09/2007
20/1 Diesis 13/10/2007
9/1 Diesis 28/09/2008
20/1 Diesis 11/10/2008
33/1 Diktat 11/08/2007
4/1 Diktat 28/09/2008
6/1 Diktat 24/07/2009
40/1 Diktat 25/07/2009
13/2 Diktat 08/05/2010
4/1 Dixie Union 23/06/2006
9/4 Docksider 13/07/2007
66/1 Doneraile Court 13/07/2007
11/2 Dr Fong 23/06/2007
15/2 Dr Fong 29/07/2007
7/2 Dr Fong 21/06/2008
12/1 Dr Fong 10/07/2009
11/2 Dubai Destination 12/05/2007
9/4 Dubai Destination 30/09/2007
4/7 Dubai Destination 13/10/2007
7/2 Dubai Destination 25/07/2008
7/1 Dubai Destination 09/05/2009
33/1 Dubai Destination 26/09/2009
100/30 Dynaformer 19/06/2008
4/7 Dynaformer 27/09/2008
10/1 Efisio 11/07/2008
4/1 El Prado 28/07/2007
7/2 El Prado 10/05/2008
9/4 Elnadim 22/09/2006
6/4 Elnadim 07/10/2006
20/1 Elnadim 20/06/2007
8/1 Elnadim 08/08/2009
14/1 Elnadim 27/09/2009
9/2 Elusive Quality 28/07/2007
12/1 Elusive Quality 10/05/2008
15/8 Elusive Quality 25/07/2008
3/1 Elusive Quality 27/09/2008
3/1 Entrepreneur 14/07/2007
7/2 Environment Friend 10/10/2009
5/1 Erins Isle 22/09/2006
100/1 Exceed And Excel 17/06/2008
100/30 Exceed And Excel 11/07/2009
6/1 Exceed And Excel 24/07/2009
11/2 Exceed And Excel 25/07/2009
8/11 Exceed And Excel 25/09/2009
9/1 Fantastic Light 25/09/2009
33/1 Fasliyev 27/07/2007
14/1 Fasliyev 28/07/2007
9/1 Fasliyev 29/09/2007
11/4 Forest Camp 19/06/2008
20/1 Forzando 25/09/2009
13/2 Fraam 14/07/2007
4/1 Fruits Of Love 27/05/2006
3/1 Fruits Of Love 30/07/2006
8/1 Fruits Of Love 29/04/2009
5/1 Fusaichi Pegasus 17/06/2008
7/1 Galileo 22/06/2007
7/2 Galileo 27/07/2007
5/1 Galileo 20/06/2008
8/11 Galileo 20/06/2008
20/1 Galileo 27/07/2008
11/2 Galileo 27/09/2008
11/10 Galileo 28/09/2008
9/4 Galileo 11/10/2008
8/13 Galileo 26/09/2009
6/1 Generous 23/06/2007
2/1 Generous 25/07/2008
5/1 Giant's Causeway 11/08/2007
11/2 Giant's Causeway 27/07/2008
2/1 Giant's Causeway 19/06/2009
12/1 Giant's Causeway 19/06/2009
15/2 Giant's Causeway 26/09/2009
6/1 Giant's Causeway 08/05/2010
5/2 Grand Lodge 12/08/2006
33/1 Grand Lodge 28/07/2007
12/1 Green Desert 27/09/2008
5/1 Green Desert 10/07/2009
16/1 Halling 23/09/2006
7/1 Halling 22/06/2007
5/1 Halling 11/10/2008
7/1 Halling 19/06/2009
15/2 Halling 10/10/2009
66/1 Helissio 18/06/2009
20/1 Hernando 21/06/2007
4/5 Hernando 10/07/2009
9/2 Hernando 25/09/2009
6/1 High Yield 20/06/2009
100/30 Hunting Lion 11/10/2008
3/1 Ihtiram 19/06/2007
7/1 In The Wings 09/08/2008
11/4 In The Wings 27/09/2009
7/2 Inchinor 10/05/2008
8/1 Indian Ridge 27/05/2006
12/1 Indian Ridge 29/07/2006
9/4 Indian Ridge 22/09/2006
8/1 Indian Ridge 22/06/2007
6/4 Indian Ridge 20/06/2008
2/5 Indian Ridge 29/04/2009
5/1 Intikhab 21/06/2006
2/1 Intikhab 02/05/2007
5/2 Intikhab 11/08/2007
11/8 Invincible Spirit 10/05/2008
10/1 Invincible Spirit 18/06/2008
16/1 Invincible Spirit 11/10/2008
5/1 Invincible Spirit 10/10/2009
2/7 Invincible Spirit 28/04/2010
4/1 Ishiguru 20/06/2006
20/1 Ishiguru 26/07/2008
8/1 Jambalaya Jazz 27/05/2006
11/2 Johannesburg 26/07/2008
1/2 Johannesburg 29/04/2009
10/1 Johannesburg 18/06/2009
6/1 Judge T C 09/05/2009
13/2 Judge T C 16/06/2009
5/2 Kahyasi 11/07/2008
20/1 Kalanisi 17/06/2008
11/1 Kheleyf 27/09/2009
16/1 Kingmambo 27/05/2006
11/4 Kingmambo 19/06/2007
9/1 Kingmambo 20/06/2007
4/7 Kingmambo 17/06/2008
9/1 Kingmambo 20/06/2008
11/1 Kingmambo 12/07/2008
10/1 Kingmambo 26/09/2008
4/1 Kingmambo 28/04/2010
9/2 King's Best 30/07/2006
3/1 King's Best 22/09/2006
9/2 King's Best 27/07/2007
20/1 King's Best 28/09/2007
12/1 King's Best 28/09/2008
28/1 King's Theatre 24/06/2006
10/1 King's Theatre 28/07/2006
9/4 King's Theatre 12/08/2006
7/2 King's Theatre 24/09/2006
20/1 King's Theatre 19/06/2007
15/2 Kyllachy 20/06/2007
6/1 Lando 20/06/2009
25/1 Lear Fan 18/06/2008
8/1 Lemon Drop Kid 20/06/2009
25/1 Lomitas 22/06/2007
14/1 Lomitas 13/10/2007
8/1 Lucky Story 17/06/2008
20/1 Lucky Story 20/06/2009
25/1 Lugana Beach 25/09/2009
14/1 Machiavellian 21/06/2006
10/1 Machiavellian 30/07/2006
2/1 Machiavellian 02/05/2007
11/4 Machiavellian 14/07/2007
5/2 Machiavellian 29/07/2007
8/1 Machiavellian 29/07/2007
13/2 Machiavellian 28/09/2007
11/8 Machiavellian 30/04/2008
25/1 Makbul 24/09/2006
50/1 Mamalik 27/07/2008
9/2 Maria's Mon 26/07/2009
11/8 Marju 21/06/2006
9/2 Marju 22/06/2006
6/1 Marju 24/07/2009
5/2 Mark Of Esteem 08/08/2009
5/1 Martino Alonso 19/06/2007
5/1 Martino Alonso 29/09/2007
11/4 Medicean 22/06/2006
6/1 Medicean 23/06/2006
3/1 Medicean 20/06/2007
5/2 Medicean 28/09/2007
11/8 Medicean 30/04/2008
8/1 Medicean 08/05/2010
5/1 Mister Baileys 09/08/2008
11/1 Monashee Mountain 07/10/2006
15/8 Monsun 20/06/2007
7/1 Monsun 28/09/2007
33/1 Montjeu 22/06/2006
25/1 Montjeu 22/06/2006
5/4 Montjeu 23/06/2006
5/6 Montjeu 29/07/2006
11/2 Montjeu 22/09/2006
11/8 Montjeu 11/08/2007
28/1 Montjeu 30/09/2007
11/8 Montjeu 21/06/2008
7/4 Montjeu 21/06/2008
10/1 Montjeu 12/07/2008
16/1 Montjeu 09/08/2008
8/1 Montjeu 27/09/2008
4/1 Montjeu 28/09/2008
12/1 Montjeu 26/09/2009
Evens Most Welcome 12/07/2008
6/1 Mt. Livermore 02/05/2007
12/1 Mtoto 28/07/2006
6/4 Mtoto 11/07/2008
9/1 Mujadil 27/07/2007
33/1 Mujadil 21/06/2008
33/1 Mujahid 20/06/2006
11/2 Mujahid 24/06/2006
4/1 Mujahid 12/07/2008
9/2 Mujahid 26/07/2008
2/1 Mull Of Kintyre 20/06/2006
25/1 Namaqualand 22/06/2006
11/2 Namid 29/04/2009
2/1 Nayef 13/10/2007
6/5 Nayef 27/07/2008
10/1 Nayef 17/06/2009
5/1 Night Shift 29/07/2006
4/1 Night Shift 12/08/2006
22/1 Night Shift 23/06/2007
5/1 Night Shift 11/07/2008
7/2 Night Shift 09/08/2008
33/1 Night Shift 26/09/2009
20/1 Noverre 20/06/2006
50/1 Noverre 22/06/2007
7/2 Noverre 29/09/2007
25/1 Noverre 18/06/2008
5/1 Noverre 08/08/2009
15/2 Noverre 27/09/2009
3/1 Oasis Dream 13/07/2007
100/30 Oasis Dream 29/07/2007
9/4 Oasis Dream 13/10/2007
13/2 Oasis Dream 18/06/2008
4/1 Oasis Dream 26/07/2008
9/2 Oasis Dream 27/07/2008
11/4 Oasis Dream 29/04/2009
7/1 Oasis Dream 09/05/2009
8/1 Oasis Dream 19/06/2009
15/8 Oasis Dream 11/07/2009
9/1 Oasis Dream 25/07/2009
12/1 Oasis Dream 25/07/2009
10/1 Officer 29/07/2006
11/4 One Cool Cat 30/04/2008
22/1 Oratorio 20/06/2009
4/1 Oratorio 11/07/2009
9/2 Orpen 13/07/2007
10/1 Paris House 11/10/2008
6/1 Peintre Celebre 29/07/2006
7/2 Peintre Celebre 07/10/2006
13/2 Peintre Celebre 19/06/2008
10/1 Peintre Celebre 10/07/2009
2/1 Piccolo 21/06/2007
4/1 Pivotal 07/10/2006
7/4 Pivotal 12/05/2007
8/1 Pivotal 19/06/2007
8/1 Pivotal 14/07/2007
25/1 Pivotal 20/06/2008
8/1 Pivotal 11/10/2008
9/2 Pivotal 17/06/2009
14/1 Pivotal 26/07/2009
28/1 Point Given 19/06/2008
6/1 Polar Falcon 24/09/2006
14/1 Polar Falcon 12/05/2007
5/2 Rahy 25/07/2009
6/1 Red Ransom 24/09/2006
5/2 Red Ransom 25/07/2008
12/1 Red Ransom 17/06/2009
11/2 Redback 21/06/2006
5/1 Redback 11/07/2009
100/30 Refuse To Bend 28/09/2008
3/1 Rock Of Gibraltar 29/04/2009
14/1 Rock Of Gibraltar 20/06/2009
9/2 Rock Of Gibraltar 28/04/2010
50/1 Roy 29/09/2007
9/1 Royal Applause 28/07/2007
9/2 Royal Applause 11/07/2008
11/2 Royal Applause 29/04/2009
16/1 Royal Applause 19/06/2009
7/2 Royal Applause 10/10/2009
7/1 Sadler's Wells 22/06/2006
9/2 Sadler's Wells 07/10/2006
8/13 Sadler's Wells 21/06/2007
100/30 Sadler's Wells 29/09/2007
11/4 Sadler's Wells 30/09/2007
11/8 Sadler's Wells 19/06/2008
6/4 Sadler's Wells 18/06/2009
5/1 Sadler's Wells 26/09/2009
5/1 Sakhee 10/05/2008
11/1 Sakhee 10/10/2009
11/4 Scenic 16/06/2009
7/2 Seeking The Gold 24/06/2006
2/1 Seeking The Gold 25/07/2008
9/2 Selkirk 23/06/2006
8/1 Selkirk 14/07/2007
7/2 Selkirk 11/07/2009
1/2 Selkirk 26/07/2009
6/4 Shinko Forest 11/08/2007
7/2 Shinko Forest 28/09/2007
7/2 Silver Hawk 21/06/2007
4/1 Singspiel 21/06/2007
8/1 Singspiel 26/09/2009
17/2 Singspiel 08/05/2010
4/1 Slip Anchor 30/04/2008
9/2 Smart Strike 02/05/2007
10/1 Soviet Star 13/10/2007
2/1 Soviet Star 25/07/2008
12/1 Soviet Star 27/09/2008
20/1 Spectrum 29/07/2006
15/2 Spectrum 29/07/2006
11/2 Spinning World 23/09/2006
12/1 Spinning World 20/06/2008
11/2 Statue Of Liberty 19/06/2008
9/2 Statue Of Liberty 25/07/2009
18/1 Storm Cat 26/07/2008
5/1 Storming Home 18/06/2009
9/1 Stravinsky 23/06/2007
16/1 Stravinsky 14/07/2007
20/1 Street Cry 21/06/2008
7/2 Street Cry 10/07/2009
7/1 Street Cry 26/07/2009
9/4 Superior Premium 27/05/2006
Evens Swain 10/05/2008
12/1 Tagula 27/05/2006
8/1 Tagula 30/07/2006
9/1 Tagula 19/06/2007
7/4 Tagula 16/06/2009
15/2 Tagula 11/07/2009
4/1 Theatrical 30/07/2006
8/1 Theatrical 23/09/2006
3/1 Tiger Hill 24/07/2009
33/1 Tiger Ridge 16/06/2009
25/1 Titus Livius 30/09/2007
11/4 Titus Livius 12/07/2008
15/8 Tobougg 26/09/2008
13/2 Trippi 17/06/2009
8/1 Val Royal 08/08/2009
8/1 Verglas 18/06/2009
15/2 Xaar 27/07/2007
8/1 Xaar 12/07/2008
9/1 Zafonic 26/07/2009
16/1 Zilzal 23/06/2006

I suppose the next step is to look at the performance of individual sires? I'm not sure that Raceform Interactive is upto doing an anlysis by runners that have previously won on the AW.

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Replies: 27

By:

Graeme83 When: 16 May 10 18:08

This is going to be a gerald roller coaster special !

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 18:45

Well, it mainly depends what people request, Goldilocks.

By:

Graeme83 When: 16 May 10 19:01

Judiciary won a grade 4 at york over 12f, after winning a grade 5 at 8F at Southwell. I'm sure there was another Godolphin horse who won at Southwell before going over to run at a higher level at Meydan. They probably like to us that track to test their toughness out.

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 19:04

The queries on RI are usually done quite quickly, unless you include past performance criteria. I was just doing a query for Ascot runners that had run at Kempton lto, but I aborted it after half-an-hour. I'll try running a query overnight, and see what happens.

By:

Graeme83 When: 16 May 10 19:12

That looks like quite a sweet tool. How much does R.I set you back ?

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 19:33

Rather expensive, Graeme. £138 for both Flat and Jumps, 3 months for the price of two. I'm mainly using it for Draw Analysis. Had to buy a new computer too, because my 20th century one couldn't cope with it. Its very quick and useful for some things. For example, Montjeu's record at Ascot since 2006 on the Flat is 14 winners, 90 runners, 15.6% winners. +£72.08 to a £1 level stake, for a 80% profit on turnover, but with a longest losing run of 25 runners. It takes only a few seconds to work something like that out.

By:

Graeme83 When: 16 May 10 19:39

I suppose that is expensive. How much of that level stake profit for Montjeus was won in Maidens ? I think that given it's current profile, the prices will be less generous. So maybe the tool is best used to find out the value early before the patterns becomes a bit more obvious.

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 19:48

Also, it started off with two big-priced winners.

By:

top2rated When: 16 May 10 20:00

Montjeu runners at Ascot since 2004

Period	Bets	Wins	SP Points	Strike Rate
2010	3	0	-3	0%
2009	28	1	-15	3.57%
2008	20	6	27.13	30%
2007	26	2	5.38	7.69%
2006	13	5	57.58	38.46%
2004	3	0	-3	0%

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 20:00

Okay, it didn't open properly in excel, so this'll look a bit messy. None of the wins were in maidens. Both of the 2yo wins were the Royal Lodge.

horse age|horse name|race type|race distance|race title|sp|race date|class|going (official)|going allowance
3|Snoqualmie Boy|FLT|1m 2f|HAMPTON COURT STAKES (LISTED RACE) (1)|33/1|22/06/2006|1|GOOD TO FIRM|.05

3|Mont Etoile|FLT|1m 4f|RIBBLESDALE STAKES (GROUP 2) (FILLIES) (1)|25/1|22/06/2006|1|GOOD TO FIRM|.05

3|Papal Bull|FLT|1m 4f|KING EDWARD VII STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (1)|5/4|23/06/2006|1|GOOD TO FIRM|-.13

4|Hurricane Run|FLT|1m 4f|KING GEORGE VI AND QUEEN ELIZABETH DIAMOND STAKES (GROUP 1) (1)|5/6|29/07/2006|1|GOOD TO FIRM (Good in place

4|Blue Bajan|FLT|1m 2f|E B F RATCLIFFES SYNDICATION CLASSIFIED STAKES (3)|11/2|22/09/2006|3|GOOD TO SOFT changing to SOFT after Race 1

4|Strategic Mount|FLT|1m 4f|MICHAEL PAGE INTERNATIONAL SHERGAR CUP CHALLENGE (HANDICAP) (2)|11/8|11/08/2007|2|GOOD TO FIRM|.10

5|Solent|FLT|2m|SIS FENWOLF STAKES (LISTED RACE) (1)|28/1|30/09/2007|1|Straight course - GOOD (8.7); Round course - GOOD TO SOFT (Soft

4|Honolulu|FLT|2m 6f|QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES (CONDITIONS RACE) (2)|7/4|21/06/2008|2|GOOD TO FIRM (Firm in places)|.03

4|Macarthur|FLT|1m 4f|HARDWICKE STAKES (GROUP 2) (1)|11/8|21/06/2008|1|GOOD TO FIRM (Firm in places)|.03

4|Metaphoric|FLT|2m|EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP CLOSES 4TH AUGUST STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2)|10/1|12/07/2008|2|GOOD TO SOFT|.38

5|Strategic Mount|FLT|1m 4f|MICHAEL PAGE INTERNATIONAL SHERGAR CUP CHALLENGE (HANDICAP) (2)|16/1|09/08/2008|2|GOOD changing to GOOD TO

2|Jukebox Jury|FLT|1m|JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (1)|8/1|27/09/2008|1|GOOD (8.6, Str 9.2, Rnd 8.3)|.20

Metaphoric|FLT|2m|SIS LIVE FENWOLF STAKES (LISTED RACE) (1)|4/1|28/09/2008|1|GOOD|-.03

2|Joshua Tree|FLT|1m|JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (1)|12/1|26/09/2009|1|GOOD (Good to firm in places) cha

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 20:10

Maybe some of those Godolphin horses you were mentioning earlier at Southwell are Dubawis, Graeme?

Dubawi at Southwark:- 12 runners, 5 winners, 41.7% strike-rate. +£10.58 level stakes, +88.2% on turnover.

Observatory at Southwell since 2003:- 57 runners, 1 winner.

Very smart, top2. I'll try mastering grids sometime during the week . . .

By:

top2rated When: 16 May 10 20:12

Here's the list of Montjeu's runners at Ascot since 2004.

Date	Time	Qualifier	Position	Runners	ISP
15/06/04	14:30	Kings Quay	12th	13	6
19/06/04	14:30	Where With All (IRE)	7th	11	5
25/09/04	14:30	Dash To The Top	3rd	9	16
21/06/06	15:50	Corre Caminos (FR)	6th	7	33
21/06/06	16:25	Stagelight (IRE)	20th	30	50
22/06/06	15:10	Mont Etoile (IRE)	1st	11	25
22/06/06	16:55	Leningrad (IRE)	12th	15	16
22/06/06	16:55	Snoqualmie Boy	1st	15	33
23/06/06	15:10	Papal Bull	1st	9	1.25
23/06/06	16:25	Kings Quay	13th	16	20
29/07/06	16:20	Hurricane Run (IRE)	1st	6	0.83
12/08/06	15:35	Ti Adora (IRE)	2nd	10	12
22/09/06	16:20	Blue Bajan (IRE)	1st	9	5.5
24/09/06	17:00	Bulwark (IRE)	4th	9	5.5
24/09/06	17:00	Hippodrome (IRE)	9th	9	66
07/10/06	13:40	Ti Adora (IRE)	3rd	13	11
02/05/07	15:20	Snoqualmie Boy	4th	5	8
12/05/07	16:10	Ned Ludd (IRE)	2nd	10	8
20/06/07	16:20	Montpellier (IRE)	13th	26	6
21/06/07	15:05	Baroness Richter (IRE)	4th	12	16
21/06/07	15:45	Bulwark (IRE)	10th	14	66
21/06/07	15:45	Montare (IRE)	5th	14	12
21/06/07	16:55	Chinese Whisper (IRE)	6th	14	10
21/06/07	17:30	Eradicate (IRE)	4th	19	4.5
22/06/07	15:05	Lion Sands	4th	9	4
22/06/07	16:55	Metaphoric (IRE)	6th	15	12
23/06/07	15:05	Scorpion (IRE)	2nd	7	0.8
23/06/07	15:05	Blue Bajan (IRE)	5th	7	11
23/06/07	17:00	Solent (IRE)	2nd	14	20
23/06/07	17:00	Kings Quay	7th	14	33
23/06/07	17:35	Ned Ludd (IRE)	4th	12	12
28/07/07	14:00	Montagne DOr (IRE)	9th	10	10
28/07/07	16:20	Scorpion (IRE)	5th	7	3
29/07/07	14:15	Solent (IRE)	5th	11	3.5
29/07/07	16:00	Sues Surprise (IRE)	7th	11	2.75
11/08/07	15:30	Strategic Mount	1st	9	1.38
28/09/07	15:45	Mont Etoile (IRE)	8th	8	20
29/09/07	17:30	Castle Howard (IRE)	8th	9	4.5
30/09/07	14:35	Solent (IRE)	1st	7	28
30/09/07	15:45	Honolulu (IRE)	3rd	8	1.5
13/10/07	13:45	Loulwa (IRE)	7th	12	33
13/10/07	14:20	Castle Howard (IRE)	11th	17	16
10/05/08	13:10	Lion Sands	5th	10	2.75
10/05/08	15:20	Ned Ludd (IRE)	6th	9	14
19/06/08	16:55	King Of Rome (IRE)	3rd	15	8
19/06/08	17:30	Better Hand (IRE)	11th	16	40
21/06/08	15:05	Macarthur	1st	9	1.38
21/06/08	15:05	Speed Gifted	4th	9	14
21/06/08	17:00	Strategic Mount	12th	19	33
21/06/08	17:35	Honolulu (IRE)	1st	16	1.75
21/06/08	17:35	Metaphoric (IRE)	3rd	16	14
21/06/08	17:35	Bulwark (IRE)	4th	16	8
12/07/08	16:00	Metaphoric (IRE)	1st	14	10
26/07/08	16:20	Papal Bull	2nd	8	14
26/07/08	16:20	Macarthur	8th	8	14
27/07/08	16:35	Yes Mr President (IRE)	3rd	7	9
09/08/08	15:30	Strategic Mount	1st	10	16
26/09/08	15:55	Island Vista	7th	13	6.5
27/09/08	14:30	Jukebox Jury (IRE)	1st	8	8
28/09/08	14:40	Lion Sands	5th	5	6.5
28/09/08	16:25	Metaphoric (IRE)	1st	8	4
11/10/08	14:20	Crete (IRE)	19th	19	14
18/06/09	15:05	Take The Hint	6th	10	3.5
18/06/09	15:05	Mooakada (IRE)	8th	10	14
18/06/09	15:45	Washington Irving (IRE)	PU	9	50
18/06/09	17:30	Highland Glen	6th	19	7
19/06/09	15:05	Hail Caesar (IRE)	11th	12	50
19/06/09	15:05	Montaff	9th	12	25
19/06/09	16:55	Popmurphy	5th	14	14
19/06/09	16:55	Stately Home (IRE)	6th	14	10
20/06/09	14:30	Bikini Babe (IRE)	9th	16	12
20/06/09	17:00	Strategic Mount	16th	17	25
20/06/09	17:35	Bulwark (IRE)	6th	10	8
11/07/09	14:20	Snoqualmie Boy	6th	11	14
24/07/09	15:50	Lady Francesca	6th	9	6.5
24/07/09	17:35	Foolin Myself	2nd	15	14
25/07/09	16:25	Frozen Fire (GER)	7th	9	20
25/07/09	17:35	Interdiamonds	7th	8	8
26/07/09	16:35	Strategic Mount	15th	15	20
08/08/09	14:55	Yes Mr President (IRE)	2nd	10	3.5
08/08/09	14:55	Bulwark (IRE)	5th	10	14
25/09/09	15:45	Snoqualmie Girl (IRE)	6th	8	3
25/09/09	16:20	Laughing Boy (IRE)	15th	17	4
25/09/09	16:55	Gloucester	8th	10	5
26/09/09	13:55	Lady Francesca	7th	17	22
26/09/09	14:30	Joshua Tree (IRE)	1st	10	12
26/09/09	14:30	High Twelve (IRE)	4th	10	3.5
27/09/09	14:40	Macarthur	11th	12	10
10/10/09	15:30	Class Is Class (IRE)	12th	19	2.75
10/10/09	15:30	First Avenue	13th	19	80
28/04/10	15:55	Montaff	4th	10	14
28/04/10	15:55	Yes Mr President (IRE)	5th	10	5
28/04/10	15:55	Askar Tau (FR)	8th	10	5

By:

Graeme83 When: 16 May 10 20:13

Judiciary is from Invincible Spirit (IRE) (7.6f) — Theory Of Law (Generous (IRE) (11.9f))

By:

top2rated When: 16 May 10 20:18

By race type...

Category	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	Races	RaceStrike	ROI
Handicap	32	3	9%	-1.62	6	19%	29	10%	-5.06%
Non-Handicap	60	11	18%	71.71	7	12%	46	24%	119.52%
Non-Handicap Maiden	1	0	0%	-1	0	0%	1	0%	-100.00%

By:

top2rated When: 16 May 10 20:23

By horse colour....

Horse Colour	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	Races	RaceStrike	ROI
Bay	88	14	16%	74.09	13	15%	74	19%	84.19%
Bay/Brown	1	0	0%	-1	0	0%	1	0%	-100.00%
Black	1	0	0%	-1	0	0%	1	0%	-100.00%
Grey	3	0	0%	-3	0	0%	3	0%	-100.00%

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 20:28

You're beginning to scare me a little bit, top2. Do you use this sort of stuff regularly, and have it at your fingertips, or have you just run it?

Looks like the non-h'caps are the place to be.

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 20:35

High Chaparral has had 0 wins from 25 runners at Ascot since 2006.

By:

ben10 When: 16 May 10 21:17

If you want an angle maybe separate the straight course and round course.

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 21:59

Was interested in topweight in h'caps. So set saddlecloth = 1, and racetype = h'cap. Usual loss.
Then tried Ben's filter of track = Str. 3 winners, 36 runners, +£24.00 (All races 1m Str. H'cap)
For racetype = Rnd, all race distances were 1m again. 3 winners, 8 runners, +£21.00

By:

Me2 When: 16 May 10 23:00

Runners on the Flat at Ascot since 2006, that had their last run at Kempton AW. 16 winners, 209 runners. 7.7% strike-rate. +£27.00 to level stakes, +12.9% on turnover. Longest losing run 31. Obviously must be a couple of very big-priced winners in that lot, will check tomorrow.

Took less than an hour. Will try Southwell now.[:o]

By:

top2rated When: 17 May 10 04:52

Me2

The stats below, once I had set the three main variables (Years 2006-2010, Flat turf, UK) took 1.3 seconds to produce.

Add another couple of minutes to copy & paste in to spreadsheet to produce the table.

Criteria	Runs	Wins	Places	Profit/Loss	Strike
Major Races - Group 3	11	5	7	8.68	45%
Stallion - Stravinsky (USA)

Major Races - Listed Race	14	6	8	17.25	43%
Stallion - Sahm (USA)

Major Races - Group 2	10	4	6	7.16	40%
Stallion - Dynaformer (USA)

Major Races - Listed Race	10	4	4	13.75	40%
Stallion - Dynaformer (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	13	5	8	-2.04	38%
Stallion - Johar (USA)

Major Races - Group 2	13	5	7	9.18	38%
Stallion - Desert Style (IRE)

Major Races - Group 3	11	4	6	20.38	36%
Stallion - Soviet Star (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	19	6	9	19.50	32%
Stallion - Vindication (USA)

Major Races - Listed Race	19	6	11	25.50	32%
Stallion - Arch (USA)

Major Races - Listed Race	16	5	7	1.82	31%
Stallion - Sinndar (IRE)

Major Races - Group 3	10	3	4	4.00	30%
Stallion - Johannesburg (USA)

Major Races - Listed Race	10	3	5	32.50	30%
Stallion - Aljabr (USA)

Major Races - Listed Race	10	3	3	5.75	30%
Stallion - Smart Strike (CAN)

Major Races - Non-Major	21	6	10	12.83	29%
Stallion - Yankee Gentleman (USA)

Major Races - Listed Race	96	28	42	66.54	29%
Stallion - Selkirk (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	32	9	17	42.69	28%
Stallion - Saint Ballado (CAN)

Major Races - Group 3	18	5	6	11.08	28%
Stallion - Inchinor

Major Races - Non-Major	15	4	6	8.73	27%
Stallion - Exchange Rate (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	11	3	3	7.00	27%
Stallion - Jimble (FR)

Major Races - Non-Major	11	3	4	6.23	27%
Stallion - Olmodavor (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	22	6	9	-2.62	27%
Stallion - Sagacity (FR)

Major Races - Group 1	15	4	7	22.65	27%
Stallion - Mr Greeley (USA)

Major Races - Group 3	11	3	5	8.00	27%
Stallion - Sinndar (IRE)

Major Races - Listed Race	15	4	9	18.38	27%
Stallion - Bold Edge

Major Races - Listed Race	11	3	5	4.00	27%
Stallion - El Prado (IRE)

Major Races - Listed Race	22	6	8	43.13	27%
Stallion - One Cool Cat (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	12	3	5	9.00	25%
Stallion - Alkalde (GER)

Major Races - Non-Major	12	3	6	10.50	25%
Stallion - Favorite Trick (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	16	4	8	8.25	25%
Stallion - Zinaad

Major Races - Group 3	72	18	27	39.27	25%
Stallion - Dansili

Major Races - Group 3	110	28	45	32.66	25%
Stallion - Galileo (IRE)

Major Races - Group 3	21	5	10	8.75	24%
Stallion - Shinko Forest (IRE)

Major Races - Listed Race	33	8	12	-10.89	24%
Stallion - Dalakhani (IRE)

Major Races - Listed Race	21	5	11	-6.35	24%
Stallion - Danzig (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	22	5	7	4.00	23%
Stallion - Broken Vow (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	30	7	10	14.43	23%
Stallion - Medaglia Doro (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	13	3	4	-3.50	23%
Stallion - Norwick (USA)

Major Races - Group 1	13	3	5	1.63	23%
Stallion - Dalakhani (IRE)

Major Races - Group 1	81	19	36	-26.47	23%
Stallion - Danehill (USA)

Major Races - Group 1	13	3	4	3.75	23%
Stallion - Mark Of Esteem (IRE)

Major Races - Non-Major	23	5	10	-0.07	22%
Stallion - Menifee (USA)

Major Races - Group 2	63	14	23	21.04	22%
Stallion - Montjeu (IRE)

Major Races - Group 3	23	5	8	82.00	22%
Stallion - Diktat

Major Races - Listed Race	23	5	8	4.10	22%
Stallion - Kalanisi (IRE)

Major Races - Listed Race	37	8	14	32.04	22%
Stallion - Spinning World (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	53	11	18	10.98	21%
Stallion - Acambaro (GER)

Major Races - Non-Major	14	3	5	36.00	21%
Stallion - Commander Collins (IRE)

Major Races - Non-Major	14	3	4	5.00	21%
Stallion - Judge T C (USA)

Major Races - Non-Major	19	4	7	3.88	21%
Stallion - Pelder (IRE)

Major Races - Non-Major	24	5	8	15.25	21%
Stallion - Cape Town (IRE)

By:

Me2 When: 17 May 10 05:17

Looks like you've got a better product than RI there. You've also got 4-5 sires I don't recognise!

Anyway, going back to horses that had their last start at an All-Weather course, the Lingfield figures are more what one would expect, leaving one to wonder whether the Kempton and Southwell figures are just random, or whether there is a reason. Ascot runners since 2006 with last run at Lingfield (A.W):- 7 wins, 118 runs, 5.9%. -£36.5 loss to level stakes, -£30.9% loss on turnover.

By:

Me2 When: 17 May 10 05:22

Looks like I've misplaced the Southwell figures. I'll post them when I get home from work.

By:

duncan idaho When: 17 May 10 08:54

Some ridiculously small sample sizes to be giving creedence to here, fellas. Thanks for posting, though.

By:

Me2 When: 17 May 10 15:00

Well Duncan, here is another small population.

Horses running at Ascot on the flat since 2006, that had their last run at Southwell (AW):-
2 winners, 13 runners, 15.4%. +£11 level stakes, +84.6% on turnover.

Just Wolverhapton to do now, I'll give Great Leighs a miss.

By:

top2rated When: 17 May 10 15:43

Race Category Flat,
Race Category LR All Weather,
Track Ascot ,
Track LR Wolverhampton ,
Date (Year) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010.

Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	Races	RaceStrike	ROI
41	1	2.44%	-36.00	5	12.20%	37	2.70%	-87.80%

By:

Me2 When: 17 May 10 16:03

Ouch, though not surprising.

So the two AW tracks are Kempton, because the Newmarket trainers ain't averse to sending their horses there, and Southwell, because the surface resembles Ascot's.