FRENCH 2000 GUINEAS Trends

The Poule d'Essai des Poulains (the French equivalent of the 2000 Guineas) takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 16th May.
Trends for the past 10 years below:

AGE
Race for 3yos

BREEDING
American bred: 5-5-39
Irish bred: 3-6-32
British bred: 2-3-22
French bred: 0-4-24
Japanese bred: 0-0-1
American bred horses have won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 32.8% of the total runners
There seems to be more of a need for speed in a horse’s pedigree to win this with only 3 of the 10 sires having won over a mile or further.
7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse who’d won over no further than 7F
3 of last 8 winners were by Danehill (another was by Danzig, Danehill’s father)

RECENT/PAST FORM
9 of 10 winners won on one or both of their first 2 runs as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had had between 4 and 8 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time
7 of 10 winners ran at Longchamp last time out
3 of 10 winners ran at Nad Al Sheba last time out (all 3 Godolphin winners)
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception having first run in group race)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
4 of 4 French trained winners had won over CD
9 of 10 winners were born before 10th April

OTHER RACES
Prix De Fontainbleau winner (Rajsaman): 243117391 (3-3-9)
Prix Omnium winner (No Risk At All): 261661 (2-1-6)
Criterium International winner (Jan Vermeer): 66 (0-0-2)
Prix Morny winner (Arcano): 9 (0-0-1)
Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner (Siyouni): 5123d (1-1-4)
Champagne Stakes winner (Poet's Voice): 1 (1-0-1)
July Stakes winner (Arcano): 17 (1-0-2)
Prix La Flèche winner (Siyouni): 14 (1-0-2)
Coventry Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 1 (1-0-1)
Richmond Stakes winner (**** Turpin): 10 (1-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Fontainbleau last time out, finishing 3114d61
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 237
2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium International, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Vintage Stakes, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the UAE Derby last time out, finishing 29

TRAINERS
Aidan O’Brien (3-3-27) has trained 3 winners of the race in the past 10 years, all 3 prepped in the Prix De Fontainbleau, finishing 34d6.
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-11) has also trained 3 winners of this since 2000 but hasn’t won it since 2005. All 3 of his winners had prepped at the Dubai Spring Festival, having their previous run in the UAE Derby or UAE 2000 Guineas.
Andre Fabre (1-4-9) last trained the winner in 2003 and has seen 5 of his 9 runners make the frame since 2000.
Carlos Laffon-Parias (1-1-5) and Criquette Head-Maarek (1-1-7) have each won the race once in the past 10 years.
British based trainers (3-3-34) have won 3 of the last 10, though if you omit Godolphin’s runners, their record reads 0-2-23.
Irish trained runners (3-5-31) have also won 3 of the last 10, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record reads 0-2-4.

DRAW
If you omit the two runnings of this race with less than 10 runners the draw stats read:
Horses drawn 1 to 4: 2-8-32
Horses drawn 5 to 8: 4-4-32
Horses drawn 9 to 12: 2-1-28
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-3-13
All 8 renewals with 10+ runners have been won by a horse drawn 9 or below. The record of horses drawn 10 or above reads 0-4-33 compared to those drawn 1 to 9: 8-12-72.

PRICE
7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 runnings in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.39.

SUMMARY:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• American bred (sire emphasis on speed)
• Born before 10/04/2007
• Had 4 to 8 career starts, run once or twice this season
• Ran at Longchamp or Nad Al Sheba last time out
• Run in past 50 days
• Won a group race
• Won over 7F or 8F
• Ran in the Prix De Fontainbleau last time out
• Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Bin Suroor or Andre Fabre
• Drawn 9 or below
• First 4 in the betting