Horse Antepost
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Having visited Lingfield on Saturday and seeing action, I have to say the one to take out of the day was Ceilidih House, this may seem strange after seeing good performances from Bullet Train etc.
CH was having her second lifetime run, and first run this season, she was running against the Oaks favourite at the time, Timepiece and 1 or 2 other unexposed horses.
The race was run at a very good pace, and CH was the horse to take it up from the pace setting Bebopalua, she was then tackled by Timepiece and they had a 2 furlong duel before both being picked up by Dyna Waltz.
Watching the race again, CH was squeezed up against the rail when looking to fight back and when beaten, Jim Crowley let her run in at her own pace in the last 100yards or so.
The 2 horses that beat her have both had a run this season and hopefully with the run under belt, CH will be able to overturn the form, especailly now that the horse was only seeing a racecourse for the second ever time.
Watching the horses come down the hill at Lingfield, CH seemed to take it by far the best out of the first three home.
Now if you look at the similaries with Look Here, they are astounding, Trainer/Owner/Breeder the same, Look Here also had one run in the Autumn, admittedly the race Look Here won in the Autumn was 10 times better than the one CH won last Autumn.
Beckett then sent Look Here to the Lingfield Oaks trial, she was beaten in a much weaker renewal than what CH ran in on Saturday, Miracle Seeker won the race and Look Here overturned the form in the Epsom Classic by many lengths, now if CH can improve as much as Look Here did for the Lingfield Oaks trial, she could go on and run a massive race in the Oaks.
Lets hope history repeats itself.
FWIW I took 20s with Ladbrokes this morning E/W, we'll see!!
CH was having her second lifetime run, and first run this season, she was running against the Oaks favourite at the time, Timepiece and 1 or 2 other unexposed horses.
The race was run at a very good pace, and CH was the horse to take it up from the pace setting Bebopalua, she was then tackled by Timepiece and they had a 2 furlong duel before both being picked up by Dyna Waltz.
Watching the race again, CH was squeezed up against the rail when looking to fight back and when beaten, Jim Crowley let her run in at her own pace in the last 100yards or so.
The 2 horses that beat her have both had a run this season and hopefully with the run under belt, CH will be able to overturn the form, especailly now that the horse was only seeing a racecourse for the second ever time.
Watching the horses come down the hill at Lingfield, CH seemed to take it by far the best out of the first three home.
Now if you look at the similaries with Look Here, they are astounding, Trainer/Owner/Breeder the same, Look Here also had one run in the Autumn, admittedly the race Look Here won in the Autumn was 10 times better than the one CH won last Autumn.
Beckett then sent Look Here to the Lingfield Oaks trial, she was beaten in a much weaker renewal than what CH ran in on Saturday, Miracle Seeker won the race and Look Here overturned the form in the Epsom Classic by many lengths, now if CH can improve as much as Look Here did for the Lingfield Oaks trial, she could go on and run a massive race in the Oaks.
Lets hope history repeats itself.
FWIW I took 20s with Ladbrokes this morning E/W, we'll see!!
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I was thinking about this the other night, the immediate reaction is to now dismiss her but first time up and in need of experience maybe you can let her off it. Look Here is a good comparison and CH can still go there with a chance, her backers should assume nothing has changed imo.
I thought it was a really decent run... trainer stated she needed the run... looks very similar to Look Here...
I think 20s is good value.. I hope timepiece turn up with Dyna as I think it was not a bad race... maybe worth backing all three with Rumoush.
I think 20s is good value.. I hope timepiece turn up with Dyna as I think it was not a bad race... maybe worth backing all three with Rumoush.
I think it can only be viewed as a good run tbh for the reason you have posted. Trainer quite clearly said they were using it as a trail beforehand so not so sure why he was downbeat afterwards.
Timepiece on the otherhand has ran in 3 listed races now, winning one of them by a Head, and losing the other two.
Timepiece on the otherhand has ran in 3 listed races now, winning one of them by a Head, and losing the other two.
''Now if you look at the similaries with Look Here, they are astounding''
Coincidence backer.
Coincidence backer.
I think you need to look elsewhere, cannot see this one winning any oaks
I agree that can sometimes be a big mistake but I see why people do follow it in some cases with trainers having set ways to train a horse. Everyone already knew it was a similar profile to Look Here though and the price has still been pushed out, that is the angle that maybe makes it value now because technically nothing's changed from her fans point of view.
Ralph Beckett is indeed very likely to go down that same route with his best middle-distance filly whether she's good enough to win the Oaks or finish only tenth in it imo.
I think to take one line out of quite a long piece I wrote is a bit harsh to call me a coincidence backer.
The fact that they do have similar profiles is just one positive in my opinion.
Who do you fancy at this stage Duncan, and why??
The fact that they do have similar profiles is just one positive in my opinion.
Who do you fancy at this stage Duncan, and why??
I see what you mean, and that would be a good reason to take her on for the trial, but on that performance ability-wise she's done enough to be a contender for the Oaks because now coincidence backers can point to the improvement Look Here found as a reason for her to definitely step up on that (plus she won't be forced to go as early as the pace should hold up better). She's stil linteresting imo.
Coincidence backing is no different to trends backing imo, as long as you use other variables that are available as well (as you've done Vieri) it can be a very helpful tool imo.
I backed Rumoosh at 12s and 10s VieriS. Beautifully bred, would have finished in first 4 in Guineas without draw bias imo and i feel she'll come into her own at 10f+ (strong at finish in Feilden and relaxed demeanour). I laid her half-brother Mawaatheq in CLodge last year cos i didnt think he would stay 12f- got to learn from yr mistakes! You're right, it was a bit harsh but it was the only bit i wanted to comment on. Good write-up otherwise. Good luck.
ben10, i felt Look Here should have won the Lingfield Trial...i think Sanders held his hands up and admitted it wasnt his finest hour. That's were most of the improvement came from. I cant say i feel CHouse had a similar excuse on Sat but obv it's just an opinion.
Fair enough, you certainly got a good price, and I think we can both be reasonably happy with the O'Brien horse being declared a non runner this afternoon 
The Lingfield Oaks trial on Saturday was far stronger than the 2008 renewal, Miracle Seeker was no great shakes, whereas Timepiece has long been thought of well, although may prove to be an underachiever.
I just think 20s is too big thats all, I'll be amazed if she doesn't finish in front of Dyna Waltz
I just think 20s is too big thats all, I'll be amazed if she doesn't finish in front of Dyna Waltz
Fair comment on Look Here's trial I think, could maybe say this was better but no evidence of that, although the Timepiece line puts her near your fancy, Rumoush - assuming that Timepiece could have got closer at Newmarket and CH should improve past Timepiece on the day.
Most interesting horse for me is Myplacelater who I think needs a decent straight to get going and ran well at Chester when it was never going to suit, does need supplementing though.
Most interesting horse for me is Myplacelater who I think needs a decent straight to get going and ran well at Chester when it was never going to suit, does need supplementing though.
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