Horse Antepost
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No lengthy explanations this year. No qualifiers last year, but 2010 is a far more conventional renewal, and the following are qualifiers:
Special Duty
Seta
Joanna - likely NR
Atasari
You'll Be Mine - but needs a top-3 finish in a trial beforehand
Good luck !
Special Duty
Seta
Joanna - likely NR
Atasari
You'll Be Mine - but needs a top-3 finish in a trial beforehand
Good luck !
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Well with the bottom 3 in your list all looking like non runners that means you think the winner will be the favourite or likely 2nd favourite - what an amazing system :(
I wouldn't rule out Atasari, despite the fact she ran poorly in the Nell Gwyn (needed the race). Don't know whether she's an intended runner, though. She's a silly price at around 150+
Personally, as an antepost player, I think there is considerable value to be had in the price of Atasari on here, and to some extent YBM, although the latter will need a trial, and I'm unsure whether there is a further 1000G trial at Leopardstown this year (they always used to have two trials). I took the 200+ on Joanna on here, so was somewhat disappointed following JCR's comments after the Prix Imprudence! I do prefer Seta to the favourite, and although she has had what I call an 'unexposed' preparation, it is the right thing to do to take her directly to the Guineas without a prep.
You can get 20/1 Joanna, 40/1 YBM and 66/1 Atasari all nrnb with Stan James.
All of those prices hold ew appeal for me, but I suspect none of them will run, and I'll be playing the SD/Seta exacta on the day.
Interestingly, another qualifier (who was withdrawn from the entries for the 1000G after running in the UAE Guineas & Oaks) runs today, and looks very interesting against the colts - Bikini Babe. I had an interest in this antepost, but looks like they're aiming for the Oaks, which I feel is the wrong decision, although I hadn't expected them to send her to Dubai. The 10 on here for the Sandown Classic trial will surely go in a flash - her Oaks conqueror, Raihana, was only narrowly beaten in the UAE Derby, a much hotter contest than today.
Money back then so nothing to lose, exacta will be tough to get up but can see why you'd think they're the two. My 3 atm would be Special Duty, Rumoush and Music Show, in that order.
jeez doc, they'd have to cram it in a bit quick if they want to run another Leopardstown 100G trial!
Rumoush is interesting, particularly after beating the colts in the Fielden, but would have wanted her to show better form as a 2yo, although Ghanaati's unusual route last year may be a sign of things to come. My system won't allow Music Show - foaling dates are wrong, but I won't attempt to explain that ben!
Yes jair1970, the 'Leopardstown' (formerly Dimitrova) is the English trial, and the 'Derrinstown Stud' the Irish trial - the latter is run just after the English 1000 Guineas I believe, so it looks like YBM won't qualify, although over the years I've noticed that on occasions they seem to find a 'race' when a good one of O'Brien's needs a prep!
Hello everyone. Interesting to see that Atasari & You'll Be Mine stand their ground at the 5 day stage, and nice to see JCR standing by his post-race comments regarding Joanna (now withdrawn). I still feel that Atasari & YBM are excellent antepost value.
doctor freemantle injured.....................19.34
Seta is an unusual one Doc , as she is a May filly, cannot remember the last filly born in May to win the 1000Guineas ?
Enfield Spark ;)
Speciosa was the closest one to May, born only 3 days earlier that Seta
Speciosa was the closest one to May, born only 3 days earlier that Seta
Speciosa April 28th, Wince April 26th. Both very poor renewals as well.
Stormbird
I've discussed the issue of late-April & may fillies extensively on previous threads (incidentally, Enstone Spark was foaled 6Jun I believe). There are two ways that such fillies can win:
a) Traditional preparation - this involves displaying precocity as a 2yo by winning at 6f+ within 13 weeks of the foaling date, then recording a top-3 finish in both a 2yo & 3yo trial (which will naturally involve confirming the precocity as a 3yo).
b) Unexposed preparation - this requires a win fto as a 2yo at 14-21 weeks after foaling date, then a break of at least 7 weeks before recording a top-2 finish over 8f at Group-level. The filly can then go straight to the Guineas without a prep.
Seta fits the unexposed profile, by virtue that he was a beaten favourite in his 2yo trial (May Hill). Unexposed winners are much rarer than traditional types - other examples have been Las Meninas (1Apr - who was also precocious), Ameerat (4Apr) & Kazzia (12Apr). Shadayid (10Apr) & Speciosa (28Apr) are examples of a traditional types, who both also displayed precocity.
I understand the idea of allowing 'beaten favourites' isn't acceptable to a lot of so-called system analysts, but there have been several other recent examples, all with traditional preps:
Sleepytime - 4th (beaten fav) in Fred Darling
Cape Verdi - 4th (beaten fav) in Cheveley Park
Wince - 7th (beaten fav) in Rockfel
Lahan - 4th (beaten fav) in Fred Darling
This also explains why I also like Atasari so much, as I believe she can theoretically be forgiven her flop in the Nell Gwyn, and given that Music Show triumphed, her 2yo Rockfel form was franked. Clearly something was amiss with Atasari, and although she has yet to be confirmed a runner she has all the necessary requirements of a traditional winner. What makes her particularly attractive, is that she displayed precocity as a 2yo, a feat achieved by 4 of the last 5 traditional winners. Special Duty did not display precocity as a 2yo, which I believe explains why she was beaten in the Prix Imprudence by Joanna, who had displayed precocity.
Is that any clearer ?
I've discussed the issue of late-April & may fillies extensively on previous threads (incidentally, Enstone Spark was foaled 6Jun I believe). There are two ways that such fillies can win:
a) Traditional preparation - this involves displaying precocity as a 2yo by winning at 6f+ within 13 weeks of the foaling date, then recording a top-3 finish in both a 2yo & 3yo trial (which will naturally involve confirming the precocity as a 3yo).
b) Unexposed preparation - this requires a win fto as a 2yo at 14-21 weeks after foaling date, then a break of at least 7 weeks before recording a top-2 finish over 8f at Group-level. The filly can then go straight to the Guineas without a prep.
Seta fits the unexposed profile, by virtue that he was a beaten favourite in his 2yo trial (May Hill). Unexposed winners are much rarer than traditional types - other examples have been Las Meninas (1Apr - who was also precocious), Ameerat (4Apr) & Kazzia (12Apr). Shadayid (10Apr) & Speciosa (28Apr) are examples of a traditional types, who both also displayed precocity.
I understand the idea of allowing 'beaten favourites' isn't acceptable to a lot of so-called system analysts, but there have been several other recent examples, all with traditional preps:
Sleepytime - 4th (beaten fav) in Fred Darling
Cape Verdi - 4th (beaten fav) in Cheveley Park
Wince - 7th (beaten fav) in Rockfel
Lahan - 4th (beaten fav) in Fred Darling
This also explains why I also like Atasari so much, as I believe she can theoretically be forgiven her flop in the Nell Gwyn, and given that Music Show triumphed, her 2yo Rockfel form was franked. Clearly something was amiss with Atasari, and although she has yet to be confirmed a runner she has all the necessary requirements of a traditional winner. What makes her particularly attractive, is that she displayed precocity as a 2yo, a feat achieved by 4 of the last 5 traditional winners. Special Duty did not display precocity as a 2yo, which I believe explains why she was beaten in the Prix Imprudence by Joanna, who had displayed precocity.
Is that any clearer ?
By the way, for Seta read she not he - I am aware she is a filly!
Richie-O
Interesting that Bolger named Atasari. I note he has 4 entered at Newmarket at the weekend - Free Judgement (2000G) and Gile Na Greine, Gold Bubbles & Atasari (1000G). Nick Mordin once wrote about horse transporters carrying 3 horses for the same price as one, so if you believe his theory, than 3/4 will go, or none of them will. I still think Atasari remains good antepost value, although I'm sure many on here will think I'm clutching at straws. My system states that only Special Duty, Seta or Atasari can win.
Interesting that Bolger named Atasari. I note he has 4 entered at Newmarket at the weekend - Free Judgement (2000G) and Gile Na Greine, Gold Bubbles & Atasari (1000G). Nick Mordin once wrote about horse transporters carrying 3 horses for the same price as one, so if you believe his theory, than 3/4 will go, or none of them will. I still think Atasari remains good antepost value, although I'm sure many on here will think I'm clutching at straws. My system states that only Special Duty, Seta or Atasari can win.
Can't think of many times when Bolger has 2 runners in a big race never mind 3 or 4
ben10
I know what you mean. All 4 look like non-runners on here, although there has been a little interest in Gile Na Greine at big prices. The point I'm trying to make is that if one runs, then he could easily bring over another two. As I think you pointed out before, the stable was in very poor form around the time of the Nell Gwyn, but I note in the last week they've won the G3 Ballysax & Listed Salsabil stakes. I do understand that the prices on here suggest Atasari is a non-runner, but I'd rather take 150/1 on here than 5/2 about the other pair.
I know what you mean. All 4 look like non-runners on here, although there has been a little interest in Gile Na Greine at big prices. The point I'm trying to make is that if one runs, then he could easily bring over another two. As I think you pointed out before, the stable was in very poor form around the time of the Nell Gwyn, but I note in the last week they've won the G3 Ballysax & Listed Salsabil stakes. I do understand that the prices on here suggest Atasari is a non-runner, but I'd rather take 150/1 on here than 5/2 about the other pair.
Chances are one will run imo, just thought Mordin's comment was a bit odd (for a change :D )
I thought it was quite a shrewd observation compared to the systems rubbish he writes. My understanding is that trainers tend to maximise the occupancy of transporters when shipping abroad, and will often send horses over with ones from other yards in order to minimise costs, so it is a difficult thing to predict, but the point he was making appears quite logical to me.
Perhaps, but it's more complex than just the transporter being able to carry 3 horses. Like you say other yards can take those slots and the keeping a horse fed and mucked out and generally well requires staff and stabling, possibly even extra vet fees and the food would no doubt be more than from their usual supplier. All top owners have enough money to send a horse to a suitable target anyway and Bolger won't waste taking a horse to Newmarket unless he thinks it can make the frame.
I think Mordin was referring to shipping overseas, and the concept that such transport costs are quite prohibitive when you can send three for the price of one. I've never owned horses (just greyhounds!) so I don't really have a feel for the costs involved.
Bolger's got a fortune, he sold New Approach to the Arabs for a small fortune and had loads before that anyway, there's nothing prohibitive for him in terms of sending his horses to their correct targets. I think the space in the van theory is best used when looking at small budget stables who bring horses over (tend to see a few Northern stables going over to Ireland also) and working out which is their best chance down the card and has been laid out for it and which ones are there just to try their luck. Don't think you can apply that to Bolger though.
grand to see you posting Doc, any chance for Blue Maiden on pedigree, foaling dates etc?
Hi chico, sorry for the delay in replying
Blue Maiden was foaled 24Feb, won a 6f maiden (beat the colts) at 22 weeks from foaling date, then finished 2nd & 5th in two 'trials' (Sweet Solera & Oh So Sharp), before reappearing to run a cracker in the NG. She has had what I would term a traditional preparation, but my only concern is that I don't classify the SS or OSS as juvenile trials - I believe they both are Listed contests in disguise! Otherwise, she fits the bill nicely. Her pedigree looks OK, but I can only really envisage a place at best. I do like her trainer, who does well with a small string, but can't see him doing another Pam Sly! He also trains a filly called Miss Starlight who I think might run alright in the Pretty Polly on Sunday.
Blue Maiden was foaled 24Feb, won a 6f maiden (beat the colts) at 22 weeks from foaling date, then finished 2nd & 5th in two 'trials' (Sweet Solera & Oh So Sharp), before reappearing to run a cracker in the NG. She has had what I would term a traditional preparation, but my only concern is that I don't classify the SS or OSS as juvenile trials - I believe they both are Listed contests in disguise! Otherwise, she fits the bill nicely. Her pedigree looks OK, but I can only really envisage a place at best. I do like her trainer, who does well with a small string, but can't see him doing another Pam Sly! He also trains a filly called Miss Starlight who I think might run alright in the Pretty Polly on Sunday.
OK, here's my final analysis. Strictly adhering to my foaling dates system, there are 2 qualifiers this year - Special Duty & Seta. I'm aware they are both favourites, but I have no control over that, it's just what the system has thrown up this year. I devised the system as a way of playing the exotics, so the advice is a reverse forecast on these two.
Other than last year (no qualifiers), the system has generally thrown up 4-5 qualifiers, and I've previously had great success in getting the trifecta, so I'll offer a couple of suggestions here. The first is Misheer - she is a near-miss on the system, having been beaten in her 3yo trial, and had she finished 3rd (1/2L nearer) or gone off fav, she would have been a qualifier. I like her pedigree, and her form ties in well with SD. I do have slight pedigee reservations about all these 3, in that all have DP-total 20 (only Attraction, Kazzia & Natagora had such low totals, and two of these can be forgiven that being FR & GER-bred). So I'll also throw in Rumoush - like her half-sister Ghanaati, her preparation has been difficult to fathom on foaling dates, but she has twice beaten the colts over 8-9f, and did display precocity as a 3yo. I'd be very interested to know why connections waited so long for her 2yo debut. Her doseage profile is much more consistent with a Guineas winner than the other 3, but whether she is more of an Oaks filly remains to be seen - I could just envisage a scenario where the pace is too fast and she comes flying past the others on the climb to the line.
I will be playing the following exotics:
Special Duty & Seta - reverse exacta
Special Duty, Misheer, Seta & Rumoush - combination trifecta
Good luck to all followers!!
Other than last year (no qualifiers), the system has generally thrown up 4-5 qualifiers, and I've previously had great success in getting the trifecta, so I'll offer a couple of suggestions here. The first is Misheer - she is a near-miss on the system, having been beaten in her 3yo trial, and had she finished 3rd (1/2L nearer) or gone off fav, she would have been a qualifier. I like her pedigree, and her form ties in well with SD. I do have slight pedigee reservations about all these 3, in that all have DP-total 20 (only Attraction, Kazzia & Natagora had such low totals, and two of these can be forgiven that being FR & GER-bred). So I'll also throw in Rumoush - like her half-sister Ghanaati, her preparation has been difficult to fathom on foaling dates, but she has twice beaten the colts over 8-9f, and did display precocity as a 3yo. I'd be very interested to know why connections waited so long for her 2yo debut. Her doseage profile is much more consistent with a Guineas winner than the other 3, but whether she is more of an Oaks filly remains to be seen - I could just envisage a scenario where the pace is too fast and she comes flying past the others on the climb to the line.
I will be playing the following exotics:
Special Duty & Seta - reverse exacta
Special Duty, Misheer, Seta & Rumoush - combination trifecta
Good luck to all followers!!
no room for error after last year doc.
gl. you're going to need it, imo.
gl. you're going to need it, imo.
Bestmate
JQ was foaled 1Mar, and her 7f maiden at 30 weeks. She used Newbury's Radley stakes as her 2yo trial (not recognised as such by myself) and ran poorly in the NG. She was totally unconsidered by me, as she did not possess the vital 2yo & 3yo trial form for a traditional-type prep. However, if Noel Martin wanted her to run, I doubt HRAC would have argued with him!!!
I really think this year's renewal was a farce due to the inconsistency in the ground across the course - the near side (low draw) appeared to have a huge advantage, and the result (first 5 home drawn 4,1,2,6 & 7) confirms this. I wasn't too disappointed, as my system did select the winner, but I didn't collect on the day (I had backed Seta win-only at bigger prices, but not SD). It is worth noting that Rumoush ran well from an impossible draw. I will return next year...
JQ was foaled 1Mar, and her 7f maiden at 30 weeks. She used Newbury's Radley stakes as her 2yo trial (not recognised as such by myself) and ran poorly in the NG. She was totally unconsidered by me, as she did not possess the vital 2yo & 3yo trial form for a traditional-type prep. However, if Noel Martin wanted her to run, I doubt HRAC would have argued with him!!!
I really think this year's renewal was a farce due to the inconsistency in the ground across the course - the near side (low draw) appeared to have a huge advantage, and the result (first 5 home drawn 4,1,2,6 & 7) confirms this. I wasn't too disappointed, as my system did select the winner, but I didn't collect on the day (I had backed Seta win-only at bigger prices, but not SD). It is worth noting that Rumoush ran well from an impossible draw. I will return next year...
So when you first offered us the system it had pciked the trifecta two years in a row but back fitting would have done so for a few more years iirc. At that point you valued it at 60k.
In the two runnings since, you have offered up (iirc) 8 or 9 horses, only one of which has finished in the first 4. Of course a system which says "back the horse with the shortest price" would also have returned that same horse for free.
Cmon Doc, no BS now, surely you can see this isn't working??
In the two runnings since, you have offered up (iirc) 8 or 9 horses, only one of which has finished in the first 4. Of course a system which says "back the horse with the shortest price" would also have returned that same horse for free.
Cmon Doc, no BS now, surely you can see this isn't working??
Charlton2005,
The system was devised to predict the winner, and barring 2009 when there were no qualifiers, it has done so year in year out - it does often select market leaders, but also the odd long-shot (Misheer was a near miss on the system this year). I find a knowledge of foaling dates is a powerful betting tool with fillies, and allows many predictions which form-studying does not allow. For example, I backed Joanna at 200+ for the guineas this year using this system, and although disappointed that she didn't turn up, did manage to lay her to the tune of £50. I strongly suspected that she'd beat SD in the Prix Imprudence, but know I'm just kicking myself I didn't back SD following her defeat (she drifted to about 7-8 on here, I believe. This kind of analysis can be very powerful, but like a lot of betting angles, it depends how you use the information. I like to play the exotics, as I prefer backing at odds of 500/1 rather than 5/1 - in my experience, in the long-term, that is how you generate a profit as a backer. I still gave you the winner from 2 selections, it's just unfortunate that the unfair ground/draw situation didn't allow us a chance. Rumoush ran really well from an impossibly high draw, Misheer was far too free, and Kieran (for some reason) chose to go to the far side on Seta from stall 9. I'll continue to use foaling dates for the fillies classics, and will offer my selections for the Irish 1000 and Oaks in due course. I've been very successful in the Oaks using this type of system in recent years.
The system was devised to predict the winner, and barring 2009 when there were no qualifiers, it has done so year in year out - it does often select market leaders, but also the odd long-shot (Misheer was a near miss on the system this year). I find a knowledge of foaling dates is a powerful betting tool with fillies, and allows many predictions which form-studying does not allow. For example, I backed Joanna at 200+ for the guineas this year using this system, and although disappointed that she didn't turn up, did manage to lay her to the tune of £50. I strongly suspected that she'd beat SD in the Prix Imprudence, but know I'm just kicking myself I didn't back SD following her defeat (she drifted to about 7-8 on here, I believe. This kind of analysis can be very powerful, but like a lot of betting angles, it depends how you use the information. I like to play the exotics, as I prefer backing at odds of 500/1 rather than 5/1 - in my experience, in the long-term, that is how you generate a profit as a backer. I still gave you the winner from 2 selections, it's just unfortunate that the unfair ground/draw situation didn't allow us a chance. Rumoush ran really well from an impossibly high draw, Misheer was far too free, and Kieran (for some reason) chose to go to the far side on Seta from stall 9. I'll continue to use foaling dates for the fillies classics, and will offer my selections for the Irish 1000 and Oaks in due course. I've been very successful in the Oaks using this type of system in recent years.
doc...
would it not be possible to view your findings on the oaks sooner rather than later...ie before the trials take place ( obv. the 1000 has already been run ).
this could atleast show up some early value....i have not read the full post of your system...but if based purely on foaling dates...could you not have sought some early value on the 1000gns winner?
surely as a post on the antepost forum...you would best be using your system to find antepost value...rather than day of race exotics..
would it not be possible to view your findings on the oaks sooner rather than later...ie before the trials take place ( obv. the 1000 has already been run ).
this could atleast show up some early value....i have not read the full post of your system...but if based purely on foaling dates...could you not have sought some early value on the 1000gns winner?
surely as a post on the antepost forum...you would best be using your system to find antepost value...rather than day of race exotics..
also Make A Dance, but Moonlight Cloud is in the zone. cheers.
Charlton2005,
The system was devised to predict the winner, and barring 2009 when there were no qualifiers, it has done so year in year out - it does often select market leaders, but also the odd long-shot (Misheer was a near miss on the system this year). I find a knowledge of foaling dates is a powerful betting tool with fillies, and allows many predictions which form-studying does not allow. For example, I backed Joanna at 200+ for the guineas this year using this system, and although disappointed that she didn't turn up, did manage to lay her to the tune of £50. I strongly suspected that she'd beat SD in the Prix Imprudence, but know I'm just kicking myself I didn't back SD following her defeat (she drifted to about 7-8 on here, I believe. This kind of analysis can be very powerful, but like a lot of betting angles, it depends how you use the information. I like to play the exotics, as I prefer backing at odds of 500/1 rather than 5/1 - in my experience, in the long-term, that is how you generate a profit as a backer. I still gave you the winner from 2 selections, it's just unfortunate that the unfair ground/draw situation didn't allow us a chance. Rumoush ran really well from an impossibly high draw, Misheer was far too free, and Kieran (for some reason) chose to go to the far side on Seta from stall 9. I'll continue to use foaling dates for the fillies classics, and will offer my selections for the Irish 1000 and Oaks in due course. I've been very successful in the Oaks using this type of system in recent years.
agree completely- although probably only true on betfair as something that is 80-1 on here might only be returned at 25-1 on bookmakers sp
The system was devised to predict the winner, and barring 2009 when there were no qualifiers, it has done so year in year out - it does often select market leaders, but also the odd long-shot (Misheer was a near miss on the system this year). I find a knowledge of foaling dates is a powerful betting tool with fillies, and allows many predictions which form-studying does not allow. For example, I backed Joanna at 200+ for the guineas this year using this system, and although disappointed that she didn't turn up, did manage to lay her to the tune of £50. I strongly suspected that she'd beat SD in the Prix Imprudence, but know I'm just kicking myself I didn't back SD following her defeat (she drifted to about 7-8 on here, I believe. This kind of analysis can be very powerful, but like a lot of betting angles, it depends how you use the information. I like to play the exotics, as I prefer backing at odds of 500/1 rather than 5/1 - in my experience, in the long-term, that is how you generate a profit as a backer. I still gave you the winner from 2 selections, it's just unfortunate that the unfair ground/draw situation didn't allow us a chance. Rumoush ran really well from an impossibly high draw, Misheer was far too free, and Kieran (for some reason) chose to go to the far side on Seta from stall 9. I'll continue to use foaling dates for the fillies classics, and will offer my selections for the Irish 1000 and Oaks in due course. I've been very successful in the Oaks using this type of system in recent years.
agree completely- although probably only true on betfair as something that is 80-1 on here might only be returned at 25-1 on bookmakers sp
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