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Tavaris Jackson
04 May 10 09:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Nov 06
| Topic/replies: 1,998 | Blogger: Tavaris Jackson's blog
Probable:

Super Saver
Dublin
Paddy O'Prado
Make Music For Me
Lookin At Lucky 50-50
Conveyance 50-50
Jackson Bend


Possible:

Hurricane Ike
Aikenite
Pleasant Prince
A Little Warm
Caracortado
Schoolyard Dreams
Turf Melody


Unlikely:

Ice Box
Nobles Promise - Could be going for the St James Palace at Royal Ascot!
Devil May Care
Discreetly Mine


No decision:

Mission Impazible
Sidneys Candy
Pause Switch to Standard View Preakness Stakes May 15th
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Report EastLower Gooner May 6, 2010 1:24 PM BST
Jackson Bend sent me a Friends Request on facebook.

funniest thing ever.

the best status updates ever.

he says his hero is Seabiscuit and he's currently Single :o
Report Tavaris Jackson May 7, 2010 11:49 PM BST
According to the Preakness.com website

Super Saver
Paddy O'Prado
Aikenite
Caracortado
Pleasant Prince
Dublin
A Little Warm
Schoolyard Dreams
Northern Giant
Jackson Bend
Lookin At Lycky
Hurricane Ike
First Dude

Only Super Saver has been confirmed so far.
Really disappointing turnout from the Kentucky Derby field if this is the case.
Report ben10 May 7, 2010 11:58 PM BST
Will Looking At Lucky fans keep the faith? Grin

Drosselmeyer, the horse I fancied for this runs at Belmont tomorrow as a prep for the Belmont stakes. Same owner as Super Saver, that's why he isn't running in this.
Report Tavaris Jackson May 8, 2010 12:02 AM BST
Pending the draw!

I haven't looked at any of the non Kentucky Derby horses yet but assuming a decentish price (6/1+) Lookin At Lucky would make the most appeal to me.

Though come to think of it, he could be fav for this too!
Report ELG May 8, 2010 12:47 AM BST
disappointed we lost so many posts via the migration...

ANYWAYS..CONFIRMED.....

NOBLES PROMISES misses Prekness for Ascot :o
Report Tavaris Jackson May 8, 2010 6:00 PM BST
ESKENDEREYA RETIRED FROM RACING
Eskendereya, the early favorite for the 136th Kentucky Derby, has been retired by his connections after a soft tissue injury was found in the left front leg. This was the same leg that sidelined him the week before the Derby.


Ahmed Zayat has already announced he has sold a share to Jess Jackson for an undisclosed amount.


Pity Sad
Report Tavaris Jackson May 10, 2010 9:32 AM BST
From Preakness.com

Aikenite Works Five Furlongs At Churchill Downs; Fifteen Entries Possible; First Dude Is On The Bubble
Published By MJC
Published May 9, 2010

SUPER SAVER/AIKENITE/MISSION IMPAZIBLE – Super Saver, WinStar Farm’s Kentucky Derby winner, stood in the starting gate and galloped a mile and an eighth under Kevin Willey at Churchill Downs Sunday morning. The Maria’s Mon colt is scheduled to breeze a half-mile Tuesday morning under Calvin Borel, who rode him to victory in the Derby by more than two lengths.

“He was well behaved at the gate,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “He was calm, cool and collected. He is very professional and has always been that way. It is a huge edge when you have a horse with talent that also has the proper mind-set.”

Super Saver is scheduled to ship to Pimlico on Wednesday, and Pletcher expects to be in Baltimore for the post-position draw that day.

Aikenite worked five furlongs in company with Megaholtz in 1:01.40 with Willey up. Fractions for the work over a fast track were :12.60, :25.20, :37.60 and :49.40. Aikenite galloped out six furlongs in 1:15. The move was the ninth fastest of 19 at the distance.

“He broke off a couple lengths behind Megaholtz and they finished on even terms,” Pletcher said. “It was a good work, typical of how he works and he had a solid gallop out. He will walk tomorrow and go back to the track Tuesday.”

Aikenite has only won one of his eight career starts – his debut at Saratoga on August 9 – but he emerged as a prospect for the Triple Crown series with good performances in graded stakes. The Dogwood Stable colt dropped out of consideration for the Kentucky Derby with an eighth-place finish in the Blue Grass, but earned a trip to the Preakness with a strong second in the Derby Trial on April 24.

Mission Impazible remains a possibility for the Preakness. In a report on his Facebook page, written in the first person as if he had pounded on the keyboard himself, the Louisiana Derby winner rated his chances of running in the Preakness at 60 percent. Pletcher said that the ninth-place finisher in the Derby will breeze at Churchill Monday with a decision on his Preakness future expected to be made on Tuesday.

A LITTLE WARM – Trainer Anthony Dutrow said Sunday he will likely decide the Louisiana Derby runner-up’s status for the Preakness on Monday.

“I’m going to Delaware Park tomorrow to see how everything is,’’ said the 52-year-old Dutrow, eldest of three sons of the late Maryland trainer **** Dutrow. “I’ll make a decision tomorrow morning with what I’m going to do with him.”

A Little Warm, a son of Stormin Fever owned by Edward P. Evans, would be the first starter in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown for Dutrow, whose younger brother Richard saddled Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown for a Preakness victory in 2008.

CARACORTADO – The California-bred gelding looked “really good” to trainer Mike Machowsky Sunday morning after working seven furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:24.60 the previous morning. Machowsky’s homebred, who was forced to sit out the Kentucky Derby due to a lack of graded-stakes earnings, is scheduled to ship to Baltimore via Kentucky on Wednesday. The 44-year-old trainer is encouraged by the success California-based horses have enjoyed after shipping east this year.

“The racetrack at Santa Anita is a great surface to train on,” said Machowsky of the synthetic Pro-Ride surface. “Horses seem to stay really fit.”

Caracortado, whom Machowsky owns in partnership with Blahut Racing LLC, has also performed well on synthetic surfaces in the afternoon, but he will not be uninitiated on a traditional dirt surface when he goes to post in the Preakness. The son of Cat Dreams broke his maiden over the dirt track at Fairplex in his debut last September.

“He has no wasted motion. He’s a clean-moving horse. I think that’s the reason I think he’ll run well on any surface,” Machowsky said.

Southern California journeyman Paul Atkinson, who has ridden Caracortado in all seven of his starts, including a victory in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, will have the return mount.

DUBLIN/NORTHERN GIANT – Both colts trained by D. Wayne Lukas are scheduled to work Monday morning at Churchill Downs. They galloped under Arielle Witkowski before the renovation break Sunday. Lukas confirmed that veteran Garrett Gomez will replace Terry Thompson on Dublin, but has not announced a rider for Northern Giant. Gomez rode Lookin At Lucky in the Derby, but trainer Bob Baffert will use Martin Garcia in the Preakness. Eight different jockeys have ridden Northern Giant during his nine-race career. Victor Espinosa was aboard for the most recent start, a ninth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.

Using a sports analogy, Lukas explained why he made the rider switch on Dublin.

“If Peyton Manning is available, you are not going to leave him in the locker room,” Lukas said.

HURRICANE IKE – The impressive Derby Trial winner, who galloped a mile and a half at Churchill Downs Sunday morning, is slated to work seven furlongs in the shadow of the Twin Spires Monday morning.

“It will be kind of a stamina drill,” trainer John Sadler said.

Hurricane Ike, who had been winless in six starts since breaking his maiden at first asking, scored by nearly three lengths in the Derby Trial under Calvin Borel, who would go on to ride Super Saver for a victory in the Kentucky Derby a week later.

“I knew when they hit the wire (in the Derby) that I had lost Calvin. It didn’t take me long to know our jock was not going to take off the Derby winner,” said Sadler, who didn’t even entertain the thought that Borel would take off the Derby winner to ride another horse in the Preakness as he did last year while picking eventual Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra over Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

Sadler opted for Robby Albarado to ride Hurricane Ike.

JACKSON BEND – The son of Hear No Evil galloped a mile and a half at Churchill Downs Sunday morning under exercise rider Stacy Prior. Jockey Mike Smith was aboard Jackson Bend for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, in which they encountered a tough trip on the sloppy, sealed surface.

Jackson Bend won all five starts as a 2-year-old, but is 0-for-4 as a sophomore, his best finishes being back-to-back seconds to pre-Derby favorite Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial.

Zito, who saddled Louis Quatorze for victory in the 1996 Preakness, said a final decision is likely to be made Monday following a workout at Churchill Downs.

“We’ll do a little something tomorrow, maybe blow him out a little bit,” Zito said Sunday. “Then I’ll talk to Bob (principal owner LaPenta) and we’ll see what he wants to do.”

LOOKIN AT LUCKY – Without using percentages, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said Sunday that it is more likely that the beaten Derby favorite will compete in the Preakness.

“I’d say there is a very good chance, unless I see something this afternoon that changes my mind,” Baffert said.

If Lookin At Lucky does run in the Preakness, he will be ridden by Martin Garcia. Garrett Gomez rode the colt in all nine of his career starts, but Baffert said it was time for a switch that might produce some better karma for the talented colt, who manages to find trouble – in victory and defeat. Gomez has picked up the mount on Dublin, trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

The morning after the Derby, Baffert said it was possible that the colt might go on to Pimlico. He increased the chances to 50-50 a few days later and then to 51 percent. On Saturday, Lookin At Lucky was up to 52 percent. By Sunday, Baffert was even more positive about the likelihood of the Smart Strike colt running, but stopped short of confirming he was a go for the race.

“I’m going to wait until (Monday) to make the decision, but right now he’s getting stronger every day,” Baffert said. “I’m leaning toward it, but I’m just not sure. Everybody is trying to nail me down, but I don’t want to say yes today, because I’ve been known to change my mind quite often. I’m sort of being wishy-washy about it, but I’d rather wait and see how he is on Monday. Today, I liked what I saw.”

Baffert was critical of how Gomez rode the colt in a third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, but kept him on the colt for the Kentucky Derby. Lookin At Lucky drew the rail in the 20-horse Derby and was bounced around a couple of times in the first time through the stretch. He made a huge run in the second turn to get into a contending position, but could not sustain the rally and finished sixth.

“I talked with Garrett a few days ago,” Baffert said. “I told him that we’ve just been having such bad luck and I wasn’t sure if I was going to run, so I wanted to give him a chance to find another mount. And if I did run, I was maybe going to replace him only just to change our luck.

“He was good about it because we’re good friends. I wanted to try something different one time and see. Maybe we’ll draw better or do something. I’m just trying to change our luck.”

Garcia, 25, is a rising young star on the Southern California circuit. Baffert uses him often and the two teamed to win the Grade III Lone Star Derby Saturday at Lone Star Park. Through Saturday, Garcia ranked 10th on the Equibase list of purse earnings by a jockey with $3,244,201.

Lookin At Lucky galloped a mile and a half Sunday morning and is scheduled to gallop again on Monday.

PADDY O’PRADO/FIRST DUDE – Paddy O’Prado, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby, galloped a mile and a half at Churchill Downs Sunday morning in preparation for a start in the Preakness Stakes. Stablemate First Dude walked on the morning after turning in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00.60 at Churchill Downs. The third-place finisher in the Blue Grass, though, is in jeopardy of being bumped from the Preakness field that is limited to 14 starters, pending the Preakness decisions for Mission Impazible and Yawanna Twist.

In the event that the 15 horses currently under consideration for the Preakness are entered Wednesday, First Dude would be the horse excluded from the field.

The starters will be determined in a three-tier process. The first seven horses with the highest lifetime earnings in graded stakes will be given preference. The next four starters will be determined by the highest lifetime earnings in all “non-restricted stakes,” which means those stakes whose conditions contain no restrictions other than age or sex. The remaining three starters will be determined by the highest lifetime earnings in all races.

Super Saver ($1,789,032), Lookin At Lucky ($1,480,000), Mission Impazible ($485,934), Paddy O’Prado ($450,950), Dublin ($373,208) Aikenite ($267,806) and Jackson Bend ($230,000) qualify in the graded-earnings category. Only A Little Warm and Hurricane Ike have earnings in the non-restricted category, so the final five starters would come from the lifetime earnings tier: Caracortado ($262,200), Pleasant Prince ($224,398), Yawanna Twist ($195,600), Schoolyard Dreams ($179,060) and Northern Giant ($169,808) would earn starts in the Preakness, leaving First Dude ($152,160) on the outside.

PLEASANT PRINCE – The son of Indy King worked five furlongs in a brisk 59 seconds Sunday morning over Keeneland’s synthetic main track, after which owner/breeder Ken Ramsey declared him ready to go in Saturday’s Preakness.

“He galloped out six furlongs in 1:13 3/5,” Ramsey said. “He worked with two stablemates in front of him. He went past both of them before he got to the wire. Julien Leparoux came from Churchill Downs to work him and pronounced him fit for the Preakness.”

The work was the second-best of seven over a fast track, the scene of a disappointing seventh-place finish in the Blue Grass on April 10. Trainer Wesley Ward then sent him to the Derby Trial, in which he needed to finish at least second to amass enough graded-stakes earnings to qualify for the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Unfortunately, he could only manage a third-place finish over a muddy track.

Pleasant Prince became an instant Kentucky Derby candidate while finishing second in the Florida Derby, a nose behind eventual Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box. Ramsey said Ward told him that but for “a doggone eyelash” he was beaten by Ice Box at Gulfstream Park, Pleasant Prince could well have turned out to be his long-awaited Kentucky Derby winner.

“It changed the path that we took, and it certainly changed the path that Ice Box took,” Ramsey said. “After Ice Box ran as well as he did (in the Kentucky Derby), and according to the chart he was checked three separate times, he may have well been the best horse had he gotten a clear trip. I think that kind of flatters our horse, because he was in a virtual dead heat in the Florida Derby.”

SCHOOLYARD DREAMS – Trainer Derek Ryan will try the same tactic he utilized a year ago with Preakness third-place finisher Musket Man, opting to van Schoolyard Dreams from Monmouth Park on the morning of the race. The son of Stephen Got Even, who finished ahead of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver while finishing second in the Tampa Bay Derby before being left in Eskendereya’s wake in the Wood Memorial, galloped a mile and three-quarters at Monmouth Sunday.

“He’s doing great,” Ryan said. “Everything is good to go. We decided to come down the morning of the race last year, and that seemed to work out well. “It’s only a two and a half-hour drive.”

Schoolyard Dreams ran fourth in the Wood Memorial behind a victorious Eskendereya, falling short of making the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field that is decided by graded-stakes earnings. The way he’s been working lately, that may have been a blessing in disguise.

“He probably should have been second, but the rider went for a hole that really wasn’t there,” Ryan said. “Our plan was just to win the Tampa Derby and go right to Churchill, but we got that tough beat (a nose loss to Odysseus) and that sort of threw a splinter in the works and we had to re-route to the Wood.”

YAWANNA TWIST – The Illinois Derby runner-up is scheduled to work at Churchill Downs Monday morning in preparation for a possible start in the Preakness Stakes.

“If all is well, we’ll probably be there,’’ said James Riccio, managing partner of Steel Your Face Stables. “If he likes the track and gets the trip, he’ll be in the hunt.”

Yawanna Twist, who finished nearly three lengths behind American Lion in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, had previously finished second behind Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.
Report Tavaris Jackson May 10, 2010 9:43 AM BST
Super Saver - Confirmed
Paddy O'Prado - Confirmed
Aikenite - Confirmed
Caracortado - Confirmed
Pleasant Prince - Confirmed
Dublin - Confirmed
A Little Warm - Pending
Schoolyard Dreams - Confirmed
Northern Giant - Confirmed
Jackson Bend - Pending
Lookin At Lucky - Pending
Hurricane Ike - Confirmed
First Dude - Confirmed
Yawanna Twist - Pending
Report ELG May 10, 2010 8:31 PM BST
Jackson Bend breezed 4 furlongs at Churchill Downs this morning.

so my guess he's on his way to Pimlico next week.

He also says he's very happy with himself and has joined the group - How to Annoy Humans.

loooool I think its his stable lad or work ride on the sauce. but still good info.
Report ELG May 11, 2010 3:04 AM BST
Super Saver did his final work before shipping out. Looked tremendous. I would say the Kentucky Derby has brought him on even more. Beast of a horse. handsome. reminds me of curlin.

A Little Warm is out...bad scope.

Who the hell is Hurricane Ike....Ive been rushing to my past perfomances to find out. Ive seen close up photos of his works today....this horse is a fkin M O N S T E R. a playground BULLY. the mr universe of horses. his muscles have muscles :o He looks to be peaking...3 run off a break, nice and fresh after skipping the derby. Can see him running into a place for sure.
Report ELG May 11, 2010 3:10 AM BST
Lookin at Lucky CONFIRMED but needs a new jockey....Gareth Gomez switches to Dublin.

Wondered what happened there...got to be the owners tell GG to go f*** himself after a couple poncey rides.

:o
Report Tavaris Jackson May 11, 2010 9:31 AM BST
Baffert just said that he wanted a change having gotten unlucky in his last couple of races. And with Lucking at Lucky not guaranteed to run he told Gomez to try find another ride.

Martin Garcia will ride Lookin At Lucky now that he's confirmed.
Report Tavaris Jackson May 12, 2010 5:29 PM BST
Hurricane Ike out.
Report EastLower Gooner May 12, 2010 6:10 PM BST
thanks for that....was going to back him eachway.
...

drf suggesting SuperSava  might make the pace :o
Report Tavaris Jackson May 12, 2010 8:16 PM BST
Pace is nowhere near as obvious as it was in the Kentucky Derby.

Super Saver made all in the Kentucky Jockey Club and probably would have tried to do it in Arkansas too but for Line of David breaking so well. Guess you have to think that he'll try do it again.

Actually looking through the race card he should get a pretty easy lead too, probably won't set a suicidal pace so there ought to be plenty with chances coming to the final bend.

I can only see 3 possible winners!
Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and Caracortado who I'm really coming round to.
Had a worse trip in the Santa Anita Derby than even Lookin at Lucky, if he was drawn near the rail and was able to settle in 2nd or 3rd I think he might have a real chance at a very nice price.
Not sure if he may be bigger on track though so not rushing to take the 25/1.


Free Videos and stuff:
http://www.drf.com/tc/preakness/2010/135.html

Free Racecard:
http://www.drf.com/tc/preakness/2010/pps/preakness05102010.pdf
Report ELG May 12, 2010 10:29 PM BST
Hmmm interesting....I'll check that one out!!!
Report Tavaris Jackson May 12, 2010 11:05 PM BST
$1-million Preakness Stakes (G1)
Saturday, Pimlico Race Course

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML odds

1.Aikenite Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 20-to-1

2.Schoolyard Dreams Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 15-to-1

3.Pleasant Prince Julien Leparoux Wesley Ward 20-to-1

4.Northern Giant Terry Thompson D. Wayne Lukas 30-to-1

5.Yawanna Twist Edgar Prado Rick Dutrow Jr. 30-to-1

6.Jackson Bend Mike Smith Nick Zito 12-to-1

7.Lookin At Lucky Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 3-to-1

8.Super Saver Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 5-to-2

9.Caracortado Paul Atkinson Mike Machowsky 10-to-1

10.Paddy O’Prado Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 9-to-2

11.First Dude Ramon Dominguez Dale Romans 20-to-1

12.Dublin Garrett Gomez D. Wayne Lukas 10-to-1


I was expecting Caracortado's ML odds to be somewhere near 30/1! Shocked
Had to take some of Bet365's 25/1 after seeing that.

Decent draw, just outside Super Saver so should get a decent chance to follow him into a decent position.
Report ELG May 12, 2010 11:16 PM BST
Mike Machowsky...thats soooo american!!! seriously looool

:)
Report ELG May 15, 2010 1:20 AM BST
i'm going for Super Saver @ 5/2

thats a very very fair price imo.

Saw a bit of his work midweek and it looked to me like the Kentucky Derby has brought him on even more.

......

RP going big on schoolyard dreams...but i noticed they Tampa Bay still listed as Dirt :o and not polytrack. so i cant take them seriously.
Report FatoteSport May 15, 2010 1:50 AM BST
I know it sounds like a p*rno but Schoolyard Dreams e/w does it for me
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 10:23 PM BST
I still can't make up my mind whether to back another on not.
Nagging doubt about Looking at Lucky that maybe he was just a really good 2 year old and others have caught up now.
Report BJG May 15, 2010 10:25 PM BST
Super Saver for me too Cool
Report bestmate May 15, 2010 10:38 PM BST
keeping it simple
SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 10:46 PM BST
Caracortado is Spanish for Scarface! Grin
He ran into a fence when he first showed up in the trainers yard and had to get stitches.
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 10:53 PM BST
Deserting Lookin at Lucky.

Backing Super Saver.

Exacta 2 lines: Super Saver - Paddy O'Prado

Trifectas 6 lines each:
Super Saver - Paddy O'Prado - First Dude
Super Saver - Lookin at Lucky - Jackson Bend
Report Charlton2005 May 15, 2010 10:59 PM BST
forget lucky's run last time.race over after 100m. not really my kind of bet but I've taken a little 4.5 and 1.8!!

gl allHappy
Report TD_Gunner May 15, 2010 10:59 PM BST
Lookin At Lucky for me. I'm keeping the faith.
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 11:11 PM BST
Lookin at Lucky was born May 27th Shocked
Not even 3 yet!
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 11:22 PM BST
Cry

wd TD
Report Charlton2005 May 15, 2010 11:22 PM BST
BOOM
Happy
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 11:23 PM BST
And Charlton!
Report TD_Gunner May 15, 2010 11:23 PM BST
the iron horse.

don't come much tougher than him.

wd c2.
Report Charlton2005 May 15, 2010 11:25 PM BST
Thanks TJ

Good call TD. Amazed he was so close in the Derby after that early interference, so looked on for tonight
Happy
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 11:26 PM BST
Had the trifecta.... but across 2 different lines Sad
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 11:28 PM BST
Would have paid 1350/1 Cry
Report Charlton2005 May 15, 2010 11:30 PM BST
TJ :(
Report Tavaris Jackson May 15, 2010 11:38 PM BST
Kicking myself tbh..
Boxed 5 for the Kentucky Derby but was too mean to do it again! Would have been 60 lines but would have been worth it!
Report nibbledat May 16, 2010 8:17 AM BST
wp lads[;)]
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