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TD_Gunner
03 May 10 19:31
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Date Joined: 15 Mar 09
| Topic/replies: 5,691 | Blogger: TD_Gunner's blog
Advanced 21 7 - K A Ryan 102 SP SP
SP
00100-0 Aldermoor (USA) 41 4 - S C Williams 85 SP SP
SP
3114-6 Arrivederla (IRE) 10 4 - H J L Dunlop 83 SP SP
SP
0/15500- Big Noise 204 6 - Dr J D Scargill 90 SP SP
SP
35-2214 Bravo Echo 35 4 - M J Attwater 94 SP SP
SP
3/1233-4 Cape Rock 10 5 - W J Knight 78 SP SP
SP
12101-0 Captain Macarry (IRE) 42 5 - J J Quinn 89 SP SP
SP
10220-1 Castles In The Air 19 5 - R A Fahey 102 SP SP
SP
44/232-6 Cheviot (USA) 59 4 - M A Jarvis 88 SP SP
SP
1000-21 Crown Choice 17 5 - W R Swinburn 90 SP SP
SP
51101-3 Dandy Boy (ITY) 29 4 - David Marnane 92 SP SP
SP
00040-0 Dhaular Dhar (IRE) 42 8 - J S Goldie 88 SP SP
SP
2-00613 Dunelight (IRE) 21 7 - C G Cox 106 SP SP
SP
00-1020 Flipando (IRE) 6 9 - T D Barron 98 SP SP
SP
11000-0 Golden Desert (IRE) 6 6 - R A Mills 103 SP SP
SP
13/624-0 Greensward 10 4 - B J Meehan 80 SP SP
SP
1550-13 Highly Regal (IRE) 10 5 - R A Teal 85 SP SP
SP
4/66334- Himalya (IRE) 143 4 - J Noseda 108 SP SP
SP
0000-00 Huzzah (IRE) 21 5 - B W Hills 87 SP SP
SP
000-222 Internationaldebut (IRE) 19 5 - P T Midgley 89 SP SP
SP
3140-10 Irish Heartbeat (IRE) 21 5 - R A Fahey 93 SP SP
SP
52060-3 Kay Gee Be (IRE) 35 6 - W Jarvis 91 SP SP
SP
00111-1 Mabait 14 4 - L M Cumani 104 SP SP
SP
2/1100-0 Makaamen 21 4 - B W Hills 95 SP SP
SP
10001-0 Manassas (IRE) 21 5 - B J Meehan 100 SP SP
SP
5100-02 Marajaa (IRE) 21 8 - W J Musson 92 SP SP
SP
33304-0 Mirrored 7 4 - D Nicholls 99 SP SP
SP
52-1412 New Leyf (IRE) 17 4 - J R Gask 87 SP SP
SP
20-6653 Noble Citizen (USA) 8 5 - D M Simcock 89 SP SP
SP
60204-3 One Way Or Another (AUS) 41 7 - J R Gask 92 SP SP
SP
33025-5 Opus Maximus (IRE) 21 5 - M Johnston 85 SP SP
SP
120/00-3 Oratory (IRE) 21 4 - R Hannon 91 SP SP
SP
4132-62 Prime Exhibit 42 5 - R A Fahey 96 SP SP
SP
004300 Rileyskeepingfaith 6 4 - M R Channon 100 SP SP
SP
123311- Santefisio 231 4 - P J Makin 83 SP SP
SP
522006- Signor Peltro 208 7 - H Candy 98 SP SP
SP
11R402- Spectait 281 8 - Jonjo O'Neill 95 SP SP
SP
4624-11 Spirit of Sharjah (IRE) 14 5 - Miss J Feilden 102 SP SP
SP
63440-1 Spitfire 37 5 - J R Jenkins 90 SP SP
SP
5/2130-1 Splendorinthegrass (IRE) 18 4 - D R Lanigan 98 SP SP
SP
115- St Moritz (IRE) 384 4 - M Johnston 93 SP SP
SP
11120-1 Street Power (USA) 22 5 - J R Gask 87 SP SP
SP
110210- Suruor (IRE) 238 4 - D M Simcock 98 SP SP
SP
612041 Thebes 8 5 - M Johnston 92 SP SP
SP
21006-0 Titan Triumph 8 6 - W J Knight 92 SP SP
SP
21110-0 Wannabe King 21 4 - D R Lanigan 103

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Replies: 68
By:
rhinestone
When: 03 May 10 19:35
Where's this T0TE betting they reckon they've priced up..?
By:
The Gopher
When: 03 May 10 19:35
totesport Victoria Cup sponsors bet: 5 Mabait, 10 Castles In The Air, 12 Prime Exhibit, 14 Irish Heartbeat, 16 Big Noise, Himalya, Kay Gee Be, Oratory, Spirit Of Shajah, Suruor, Thebes, 20 Advanced, Arrivederla, Cheviot, Crown Choice, Dhaular Dhar, Dunelight, Makaamen, Marajaa, One Way Or Another, Signor Peltro, Splendorinthegrass, Street Power, Wannabe King, 25 Bravo Echo, Flipando, Highly Regal, Huzzah, Internationaldebut, Manassas, New Leyf, Santefisio, Spectait, Spitfire, Titan Triumph, 33 Aldermoor, Cape Rock, Captain Macarry, Golden Desert, Greensward, Mirrored, Noble Citizen, Opus Maximus, Rileyskeepingfaith.
By:
nibbledat
When: 03 May 10 19:36
going to back one horse every 5 stalls so i have the draw covered
By:
turnip turns
When: 03 May 10 19:39
:^0............................i always do ;\
By:
rhinestone
When: 03 May 10 19:39
Where'd ya find that? Been checking their website still not showing.
By:
nibbledat
When: 03 May 10 19:40
prices will be up from 9am tom i would of thought rhino
By:
The Gopher
When: 03 May 10 19:40
http://www.racingbase.com/category/Racing-News/Victoria-Cup-and-Swinton-Handicap-Hurdle-betting-with-totesport-201005030048/
By:
turnip turns
When: 03 May 10 19:40
Got a couple in mind,keepin schtum at the mo though ;\
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 03 May 10 19:41
why?
By:
Stake & Chips
When: 03 May 10 19:42
This favourite is going to start ridiculously short... :|
By:
turnip turns
When: 03 May 10 19:43
Going to wait and see what the other books have to say,and betfair more to the point,defo got one in this.
By:
nibbledat
When: 03 May 10 19:43
tt has only one live bullet left for the remainder of the flat season so needs to trend carefully :^0
By:
The Gopher
When: 03 May 10 19:43
It would be nice to be able to lay it.
By:
rhinestone
When: 03 May 10 19:43
Cheers nib.

I don't think the fav will run Steaky.
By:
The Gopher
When: 03 May 10 19:45
Going to wait and see what the other books have to say,and betfair more to the point,defo got one in this.

You may be disappointed
By:
turnip turns
When: 03 May 10 19:46
:(
By:
turnip turns
When: 03 May 10 19:46
Nibb,fo
By:
The Gopher
When: 03 May 10 19:46
Send them an email. They may put it up.
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 03 May 10 19:47
Castles In The Air is interesting.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 03 May 10 19:55
Crown Choice sniff
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 03 May 10 23:26
;\
By:
spothediference
When: 03 May 10 23:36
prime exhibit 4me. super run lto
By:
Racecaller08
When: 06 May 10 13:47
Trends for the past 10 runnings (1999-2009):

AGE (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-11-92
5yo: 3-10-69
6yo: 1-6-37
7yo+: 0-3-32
9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
4yos have won 6 of the last 10 runnings from just 40% of the total runners.
Horses aged 6+ have managed just 1 win and 9 places from 69 runners in the past 10 years. Advice is to stick with the younger horses.

WEIGHT (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 2-16-94
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-8-72
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-6-64
6 of 10 winners carried 8-7 to 8-13 and they represented just 31.3% of the runners.

OFFICIAL RATINGS
Horses rated 97 to 109: 1-9-48
Horses rated 84 to 96: 7-17-148
Horses rated 71 to 83: 2-4-34
5 of the last 6 winners have been officially rated between 90 and 99. That range has also accounted for the 20 of the 24 places in the last 6 years.

RECENT/PAST FORM
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or higher last time
7 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+
6 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher

TRAINERS
David Barron (1-2-4) has found and Michael Jarvis (1-2-5) have both gained a win and 2 places from not many runners in this past 10 runnings.
Brian Meehan (1-0-4), Barry Hills (1-0-12) and Dandy Nicholls (1-0-13) have each trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Ed Dunlop (0-2-6) and John Akehurst (0-2-7) have each filled a couple of places in the past decade.

DRAW (ignore 2005 race at Lingfield)
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 1-12-81
Horses drawn 10 to 20: 6-12-97
Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-3-34
6 of the last 7 runnings of this race at Ascot have been won by a horse drawn in stalls 10 to 16.

PRICE
5 of 10 winners were priced 14/1 to 33/1
No very strong trend on prices with 5 of the last 10 coming from the first 5 in the betting and then the other 5 were priced 14/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-3-12) have gained 3 wins in the past ten years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.

SUMMARY:
Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 or 5
· Carrying 8-7 to 8-13
· Officially rated 90 to 99
· Won over 7F+
· Ran a class 2 or higher last time out
· Run in past 40 days
· Drawn 10 to 16
· Trained by Michael Jarvis or David Barron
By:
Benjy
When: 06 May 10 17:44
This isn't very interesting is it?

Have it between the Fahey pair and the favourite.

Anybody want to make up my mind?
By:
Graeme83
When: 06 May 10 17:58
I like Mabait. He's the one i'm thinking of for this race, but i'll need to check other horses out a bit more.
By:
Graeme83
When: 06 May 10 18:04
Just noticed he's favourite, so not much of a pick. Does anyone know if he will run ?
By:
top div
When: 06 May 10 18:42
Few e.w quid on Brave Echo @ 40's and 33's.

Always thought he was a decent horse who wanted a (very) fast run uphill 7f (like i'd seen him win over at Leicester as a 2 yr old).Good ground would be fine or a bit softer rather than firmer.

God knows who'll handle the ground on the day or where the best draw is so happy to risk a smallish bet at a huge price just in case the Ascot lottery falls my horses way.
By:
Tucho
When: 06 May 10 19:42
Great stuff racecaller, Makaamen and Oratory hit on every requirement.

Brave Echo, Thebes and Noble Citizen only let down by the draw.
By:
platinni
When: 06 May 10 20:07
would not be taking those draw stats as gospel meself
By:
Richie-O
When: 06 May 10 21:05
Prime Exhibit seems sure to go well but isn't much of a price. One Way Or Another is another I like. Thebes and Noble Citizen are closely matched on their last run so Noble Citizen looks appealing at the prices.
By:
Benjy
When: 06 May 10 21:23
Spent a couple of hours looking through this earlier and think I might have found one that's a bit of value in Makaamen.

Trends wise he's a good fit;
4yo
8-13
OR93
Won over 7f
Class 2 lto
Last run 21 days ago
Drawn 13

One of, if not the, least exposed in the field he lost his way slightly towards the end of last year after making a very promising start. Debut 2nd behind Evasive with the now 98 rated Infiraad in 3rd as the stables second string on the day reads pretty well. Followed up with a comfortable success when odds on in his maiden the following year. First time in handicap company he won off a mark of 90, by over a length, giving 6lb to the now 103 rated 2nd Wannabe King and 3lb to the 102 rated Fareer.

After that he disapointed in heavy ground at Haydock in May before being off for 5 months and coming back and disapointing again at York. His season ended there but he returned last month in the Spring Cup at Newbury which turned into a very messy race and he got no sort of run at all. He was keen at the start of the race and then for the entire second half he had no room at all and Richard Hills was very easy on him throughout as he was never in the race. Just the outing will have brought him on though and the handicapper has also dropped him 2lb for it. Tadhg O'Shea riding this time who won on him in the handicap last year.

A lot of exposed and/or average sorts in this but maybe Makaamen is won of few who potentially has a lot of improvement left in him.

25/1 at the moment best odds guarenteed.

Savers on Fahey's two and the fav'.

GL
By:
redal2
When: 06 May 10 21:34
I can see your angle on Makaamen benjy, he is on my shortlist. I have backed Mabait and Dhaular Dhar at 6 and 33 with Billys. I started the season with Mabait as one of my follow till it loses horses and though I hate myself for taking 6s in a race like this I'd hate myself if it won unsupported. As for DD well it has the history, seems well enough in and a reasonable enough draw. Added to my current love affair with the yard that persuaded me despite the age angle.
By:
Tucho
When: 06 May 10 22:06
Wasn't somebody else really keen on Makaamen? But the post seems to have been lost in the forum switchover.

25/1, 5 places, NRNB at b365 btw.
By:
turnip turns
When: 06 May 10 22:12
Yeah,me.
By:
trev w
When: 06 May 10 22:16
TT...TBF  your keen on all men
By:
Extreme Conviction
When: 06 May 10 22:42
Signing in another Makaamen fan. Form red hot from newbury last year and didn't get a run at all last time when seemed to be going very well.
By:
trev w
When: 06 May 10 22:50
yeah i'm in for makka...was top trends fit and benjy made a nice case above..thats me done betting on this now though.
mabait 6/1
signor peltro e/w 20s
makka e/w 25/1 5 pl bs.
orator 12/1.
By:
platinni
When: 06 May 10 22:54
but trev - what about the winner ?

Devil
By:
trev w
When: 07 May 10 08:55
plat..always room for 1 more if i like what chew gota say Mischief
is it huzzah by any chance...noticed last yr he took 2 runs before his big run behind forgotten t.@ ascot...now 9lbs lower iirc..
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