One reason you may NOT oppose SNA.

Not impossible just very very very unlikely and at the odds a very clear lay.

there is absolutely logical reason why not.

Just get hold of a first year stats text book and you'll soon find the logical reason you don't believe exists.

think about what you are saying

You talking to us or Colour Of Sh1t?

It's not a valid reason whatsoever for opposing SNA though

100% it is FFT. The availability of STS means people are expecting another one and the prices reflect this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

I beg to differ.

SNA has the best form in the book from his beating of Elusive Pimpernel, who has shown the best piece of 3 y/o form so far this season. Not forgetting his powerful connections influencing the price.

Can't have STS as an influence on his price

I think it is. We have sensible posters like CryofTruth telling us he has backed SNA to win the triple crown!! If STS didn't exist I can tell you for sure no one would even be quoting a price on any horse doing that!

havent seen any of this years trials but have laid SNA quite heavily (for me) on the fact that
1) seems very short price
2)if the grounds good to firm it may not suit him
3)only raced over a mile id expect him to need further this year
4)see 1 short priced

only my opinion but have put my money up to back it up

With Zarkava the year before some say we've already had two in a row.

What was Zarkava rated by Timeform in the end?

and another on t'other side of the pond

correct ben we have had 2 in a row already.

No idea but she couldn't do any more.

She couldn't do anymore? You mean to say she couldn't run any better than she did in the Arc? Despite never having to be whipped? And despite only needing to be ridden hands and heels to demolish the Arc field? Sorry but for my money Zarkava was in a different league to Sea The Stars, just the usual 'ours is better than yours' mentality that surrounded Sea The Stars.

I read a comment in the Weekender today suggesting that he clearly has enough gears for the Guineas based on his run in the Racing Post Trophy.

May I request those who believe that to watch a recording of Crowded House winning the RP Trophy and look at what he's done since.

Finally someone as reputable as Sacred Kingdom agrees with me that SNA = Crowded House
Got called a few names on Elusive Pimp thread for suggesting
Others that come to mind Celtic Swing , Armiger

So St Nicolas Abbey can't be any good because Crowded House didn't turn out to be a mucher.

I see.

Flyingbolt
you don't need an IQ of more than 50 to understand the irony of the argument being made

Is that the same Celtic Swing that was beaten a head in the Guineas and won the French Derby ?

What irony ?

That short head was some anti-climax & as far as French Derby thats a joke of a race

Celtic Swing could have been beaten 50 lengths, wouldn't have made a difference, he was still beaten because he was too slow.

Another thing to throw out there. Last 15 runnings, 7 horses ran with a juvenile RPR of 122 or more. All 7 were beaten. Celtic Swing, Mujahid, Alhaarth, New Approach, Dubawi, Tobougg and Xaar.

How many subsequent Group 1s did Mujahid, Alhaarth, Tobougg and Xaar each win?

Give yourselves a pat on the back if you said zero.

Celtic Swing and New Approach both won Group 1s with huge steps up in trip.

9 of the last 10 (Golan the exception) 2000 Guineas winners had a juvenile RPR of 111-121.

Awzaan, Buzzword, Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin, Elusive Pimpernel, Fencing Master, Hearts Of Fire, Poet's Voice, Viscount Nelson and Xtension.

An incredibly difficult race to analyse on the trends. Much, much harder than last year.

Bering,Old Vic, Suave Dancer, Peintre Celebre,Monjeu,Dalakhani.................just a few of the joke horses that have won it.

It's ridiculous to be even talking about whether he's a superstar or not. Just because SNA was head and shoulders above his 2yo contempories doesn't mean he will remain so far ahead of them as a 3yo. More to the point, just look at the opposition, SNA doesn't need to be a superstar to win this year's Guineas.

The horses you mention were champs FB but celtic swing was no where near that class.

Didn't say he was. I was disputing your assertion that the French Derby is a "joke race"

Fair point Figgis but SK is producing some forceful stats & if you like those angles then there is compelling evidence to look for winner else where

OK FB. Retract that. Wonder if SNA will end up there looking for soft ground!

If he's beaten on Saturday he might. They seem pretty confident he'll handle the ground though.

SNA does not need to improve on his two-year-old form to win the Guineas. His trainer reckons that SNA ideally wants good or faster ground. He has tons of pace and a brilliant turn of foot. I will not be opposing him.

GL backers.
Imv he will join the illustrious list that SK drew up.
not long to wait

Bestmate, Celtic Swing and New Approach were beaten by 2 very good horses in Pennekamp and Henrythenavigator, SNA doesn't look to be facing horses of that calibre. I agree though that it's not a foregone conclusion that SNA will win, as that list points out many very good 2yos don't just stop improving, they go backwards over the winter. I reckon that's all SNA layers can hope for, as they don't appear to have much running for them.

Charlton2005 28 Apr 21:25


I think it is. We have sensible posters like CryofTruth telling us he has backed SNA to win the triple crown!! If STS didn't exist I can tell you for sure no one would even be quoting a price on any horse doing that!


In fairness i think they did for teofilo and new approach

Definitely did for Teofilo

Celtic Swing and New Approach were beaten by 2 very good horses in Pennekamp and Henrythenavigator, SNA doesn't look to be facing horses of that calibre.

The latter had been pretty much written off by most punters after his 2 defeats on soft ground so not sure how you can say SNA doesn't look to be facing horses of that calibre. Could easily be the case that Elusive Pimpernel is a stone worse on ground with cut in it, no?

Why didn't you mention the other 5?

as that list points out many very good 2yos don't just stop improving, they go backwards over the winter
I thought that pretty much covered them.

As for Elusive Pimpernel, I can't have the argument that he ran a stone worse in the RPT, for me he put up his best rating there, the ground was only on the slow side of good, can't really remember any very good horses running so far below form on that type of ground.

Well it's not likely but St. Nick could easily have gone backwards. I just don't think he'll be fast enough.

I was exaggerating when I said a stone, but certainly the best part of a stone anyway.

Henrythenavigator ran 8lbs below his best in the Prix Moulin (good to soft) on RPRs (sandwiched a 125 and a 128 (both on good to firm) so tiredness not a viable option IMO), George Washington ran 12lbs below his 2000 Guineas (good to firm) rating in the Irish 1000 Guineas (heavy), Azamour ran 6lbs below his best in the Champion Stakes (soft) after winning the Irish Champion (good to firm), etc. Happens quite frequently tbh.

Just remembered Dylan Thomas too.

124 in the Irish Derby (good), 118 in the Juddmonte (good to soft) 6 weeks later.

127 in the Arc (officially good to soft, more likely good), 110 in the Breeders' Cup Turf (soft) 4 weeks later.

What relevance any other race bar the trials of two and three year olds have on this weekends classics is of no interest to me.
It doesnt matter what something did 20 years ago, Saturday is the day and you have a few choices

A-You believe the 2yo form and lump on the jolly
B-You think that SNA wont be a miler and back the others behind him
C-You back the Dewhurst placers on the hope that that may be the best line
D-They are all the same and anything can win the race
E-Richard Hannon will win the race

F- Pat eddery's charge has the most interesting preparation for a live contender.

Sacred Kingdom, it's debatable whether ALL those defeats were just down to the ground and whether the ground was similar to that at Donny. In any case, those horses had all shown they were very good before those defeats, the form Elusive Pimpernel has shown so far is some way below that and with that in mind his current price makes no appeal.
I agree with Zil, the only thing that matters is the quality of this year's runners.

You're comparing a 3yo with 4 career runs to experienced 3yos, 4yos, etc?

Sacred Kingdom 29 Apr 01:13
You're comparing a 3yo with 4 career runs to experienced 3yos, 4yos, etc?

No, it was you that mentioned those horses.

lol

In any case, those horses had all shown they were very good before those defeats, the form Elusive Pimpernel has shown so far is some way below that

Reads like a comparison to me.

And yes, I mentioned those horses to highlight the difference in performances based on the ground...

Sacred Kingdom 29 Apr 01:13


You're comparing a 3yo with 4 career runs to experienced 3yos, 4yos, etc?

I was replying to your mentioning of those horses. Although personally I couldn't see the relevance, as some of those races were run on heavy ground, Henrythenavigator had just rattled off 4 Group 1s on the spin so tiredness was an obvious possibility, even if he did run back to form in the QE2, etc. Take a look at the times for last year's RPT card, it couldn't have even been good to soft really.

It's not impossible that Elusive Pimpernel could be a much better horse on fast ground, however, it requires a leap of faith as his form on such ground has been less than top class so far.

celtic swing, crowded house have no relevance to st nicholas abbeys chances of winning the guineas whatsoever.

6-4 is rather on the skinny side though.

Spot on mythical.

And having seen the highlights on here the other day, Celtic Swing hardly ran a stinker and on another year would have won.

And for those claiming Celtic Swing didn't win because "he wasn't quick enough", he easily beat the subsequent champion miler over 7 furlongs on his reappearance...

I can't see any evidence at all to support the theory that Elusive Pimpernel ran a long way below his best in the RPT at Doncaster. On the contrary, a close analysis of the form suggests that his RPT performance was the best of his two-year-old career (i.e. an improvement on his Acomb Stakes win). I know that others don't agree with me on this, but to my eyes at least EP quickened quite impressively at Doncaster (to put daylight between himself and Al Zir and the rest) and was simply beaten by a much better horse on the day. Now, having said that, I don't rule out the possibility that EP has improved significantly (relative to other contenders, including SNA) over the winter, and we simply don't know at this stage whether SNA has made equally significant improvement relative to the others, or whether he has dropped back a bit (by improving less than EP, for example). But the fact remains that SNA has already shown form that's good enough to win an average Guineas, and I dismiss completely the theory that he's not quick enough - he has more than enough pace to keep a good position before unleashing that turn of foot up the hill. He has more pace than Elusive Pimpernel, that's for sure.

You all ignore the fact that SNA has yet to do a decent time.

Taffy, you're ignoring the ground changes during the RPT meeting, changing from good to firm for the first race on the straight, to slow side of good for the last 3 races on the straight. It was a very good time in the conditions.

F

Only 1mm of rain overnight.
Leviathan time on Saturday faster than 2 x 7f races on Friday.
Hunterview time run at 4.05 only 0.82 outside standard.
SNA time of 1.39.62 slower than Modeyra 1.38.89 and Antoniola 1.38.37 on the Friday.

Taffy, it's not a good idea to compare times on different days. Hunterview's race used the round course. If people want to believe that SNA's time was not affected by slowing conditions they also must believe that the Layla's Hero and Mia's Boy races were also run terribly slowly. Having watched the races over again and knowing the abilities of the runners involved that is not even a possibilty imo.

F

It is perfectly feasible to compare times on different days. I would consider it folly not to.
You do not explain why Leviathan was faster on the Saturday if there had been a deal of rain.
If rain continued to fall throughout the afternoon and if the rain did get in why was the Hunterview time faster than the times on the round course on the Friday.
Are you suggesting that the rain fell on the straight course and not on the round?

To ignore these facts would be selective and blinkered somewhat, surely.

Just because some rain fell overnight it doesn't necessarily mean that the ground would be significantly slower for the first race of the day. Sometimes the rain doesn't get into the ground until the horses start galloping on it. There can be many reasons why the straight course could become slower than the round part of the course. Obviously it gets used more, the direction and strength of the wind can be a factor, as can the effects of previous artificial watering.

Judging the speed of a track is particularly difficult when there is rain during racing. As I said some people might want to believe that the last 3 races on the straight course were all run in poor times, I don't.

Cracking arguments going on here. My view on the race is that since we have not seen SNA run this year it is more of a watching brief. But i will no doubt back him on the day as i like to have a bet on the race. My other take is what is there to beat him ? You can pick holes in any form etc but at all the prices on offer the 6/4 SNA is the most appealing but from a layers point of you no doubt the 4/6ish him not to win is also very appealing. Wish he had gone Dante then Derby route myself as really really fancy him for that !

Derby main aim, 2000g nice trial bonus if he wins (mega big bonus if he wins both !). Sounds about right to me. Losing 2000g and then going on to win Derby will not be the end of the world for Coolmore will it ! So its a shot to nothing really.

Winning the 2,000 GNS with a son of Montjeu will be just as important to Coolmore as winning The Derby.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2jfnfcy.jpg

The baby one was my favourite :D

http://i40.tinypic.com/255m6j7.gif

He's only run 3 times, perhaps give him a chance to run a fast time first?

:D brillaint ben

F

It would have taken a tropical monsoon to affect the ground to the extent you suggest.
The time for the sprint handicap immediately prior to the last 3 straight races was only 1.1 secs outside RP standard compared with Laylas Hero time of 2.81 outside and Mias Boy of 1.94.
It is possible they went too fast too soon in the case of the former while Mias Boy race was marred by the leader Welsh Emperor breaking down and badly hampering Cyflymder and Appalachian Trail.
The wind was fresh across and not materially affecting the relative races untoward.

Taffy, so are you also saying there was no difference in track speed between Leviathan's race and the Quest For Success race?

I agree with Geoff m. Coolmore want both Guineas and Derby this year.

Re: RP trophy time, I'm not sure if I'm misreading this but the RP figures
St Nicholas Abbey 1m 1m 39.62s
12.45s +1.12s
+0.14s

seem to show he was 0.14 seconds per furlong slow. The only quicker time (per furlong) on the day was hunterview who ran on the round course, which of course shares only 4f with the straight and hunterview and the rest went up the far rail with sna and crew on the stands rail- so no point compparing those times for me.

Weird how the memory plays tricks, hunterview came up the middle, and strangely RP analysis say he set a slow pace:
Hunterview 1m4f 2m 32.82s
12.74s +1.32s
+0.11s
with the quickest per furlong time of the day.

geoff m 29 Apr 14:09
Winning the 2,000 GNS with a son of Montjeu will be just as important to Coolmore as winning The Derby.

Spot on geoff!!
They want that 8f G1 in the stud book!!

I dont ever recall Coolmore desire influencing a four legged beast to run faster. Nonsense.

They are tilting at windmills...SNA needs at least 10f now....as most Montjeus.

Look at the nibbling around Fencing Master.

Last 15 runnings, 7 horses ran with a juvenile RPR of 122 or more. All 7 were beaten. Celtic Swing, Mujahid, Alhaarth, New Approach, Dubawi, Tobougg and Xaar.

I think when people have a decent data set to produce statistics they shouldn't just remove the ones where it gets inconvenient.

By picking 15 years, you get to exclude Rodrigo De Triano and Zafonic which tend to spoil your argument. I am pretty sure Zafonic was the best two year old of his year and think Rodrigo probably was too but haven't got my timeform annuals handy.

Look at the nibbling around Fencing Master.??

Which means what ?

I have noticed Fencing Master getting nibbled at in betting last few days - possibly informed sources

Probably was too big ante-post if you could have guaranteed he was going to run. Happy enough with 16s.

Trouble with the argument about St Nick not getting a fast run race at Doncaster is that he would certainly have won even more easily (although this is hard to imagine) had he been quickening past tired horses setting a fast pace than he did from horses still running on very well. A slow pace race is certainly a race that favours those near the front. The fact that St Nick passed the whole field in a hundred yards off a slow pace and won without having been even hard ridden says it all.

if the ground was soft i wouldnt oppose!!ill be amazed with his pedigree if he wins this!!!

backing ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL and laying stake off at evens i think, hoping he'll come with his usual late charge and mow them down at the finnish!!race ready and i think he's improved from last yr!!i think thats what im doin anyway, not 100% yet!!


GL

Not sure if Elusive has improved. Dancing David and Morana were just as far behind as in PRT.

i think DD was a further length back this yr but it was the ease i like and style of the performance but yes u may be right!!DD may have ndded the run but he just put the race to bed quickly so thats what i wanted to see!!looks a good EW bet!!!

By picking 15 years, you get to exclude Rodrigo De Triano and Zafonic which tend to spoil your argument. I am pretty sure Zafonic was the best two year old of his year and think Rodrigo probably was too but haven't got my timeform annuals handy.

Ffs, I'm not looking to make up any false trends. Would hardly be profitable to me, would it? I went back 10 years, then I decided to go back a further 5 years just to solidify anything.

And anyway, they both had proper fast pedigrees, Rodrigo on 15.4 and Zafonic on 18.1. Faster horses will almost always stay fast since they have less stamina to eat into.

Look at the 7 horses. 2 of the 3 fastest ones on pedigree were placed - Mujahid (15.3) and New Approach (19.1). Celtic Swing the other on 21.7.

Diesis, Gorytus

Plenty of people saying it cant win but what beats it?

Can all the layers green up now ? So far they are all wrong.

I wouldn't want to back it at the odds on good to firm ground. I am struggling to find one to beat it though. Keep coming back to Awzaan and hoping it stays.

More I look at Awzaan the more I think stamina is no issue whatsoever, never been great with MJ horses though so will have to watch his races another 50 times before coming to a firm decision!

St Nicholas Abbey looked great in the Racing Post Trophy.

The previous running in 2008 also had a superstar, Crowded House, who won by 3 1/2 lengths on good in a time less than a second above standard. Back in 11th place was Masterofthehorse beaten 13 1/2 lengths.

Crowded House was kept for the Epsom Derby where he ran 6th beaten 8 1/4 lengths.
Ahead of him in 3rd place was Masterofthehorse beaten 2 lengths.

Celtic Swing won the Racing Post Trophy by 12 lengths, won twice as a 3-y-o but had been touted as a Triple Crown certainty.

An impressive winner in a soft ground 2-y-o 8f race is a dangerous beast to follow.

^ If Elusive Pimpernel had not been in the RPT then I could agree with you. But he was a rock solid form horse - almost certainly the best English trained 2 y.o who would have been a hot favourite had he gone to the Dewhurst. Take SNA out of the RPT and EP is a decisive winner.

As it was SNA laughed at him - and all the arguments about pace and going, while they may afect the margins of defeat and victory cannot disguise the fact that SNA was different gravy to EP and if he has trained on to any normal level (which being a Montjeu he should have done) then it's gamne over.

All these trends, times, foaling dates etc are simply confusing the matter - at the end of the day the best horse wins 99% of the time and unless something dramatic has happened the best horse is very clearly SNA.

I haven't got a penny on him though so hope EP wins doing handstands :D

Fig

Sorry I did not come back.
As I have said there was next to no rain overnight and I do not think there was sufficient rain to change the going materially.
You mentioned rain getting into the ground. There were 5 races before Hunterviews race on the round course. It is probable that racing next to the rail the ground on the round course was even more churned up than the straight where they were spread about. Therefore Hunterviews time remains important. They did not water overnight as well.
I think it more scientific to consider all the evidence and then form my decision.
For that reason I do not think SNA did a good enough time and will not be backing him. Also I would be more worried about the slow start of the APOB stable. Both Mastercraftsman and RVW improved a stone for the Guineas last term. I am also worried about the Sure Blade on the dams side. I prefer Midas Touch for the Derby.
Still, a great race in prospect. Good luck.

Taffy, you still haven't addressed the obvious difference between the time of Leviathan's race and the Quest For Success race. If you believe there was no change in conditions between those races then either there were some unbelievably good horses in that nursery or the runners in the 5f race all ran about 20lbs slower than they usually would.