Horse Antepost
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6.40 - Mr Cracker ran a great race lto in a G2 behind Luska Lad(7/2 for the G1 nov tomorrow) and Blackstairsmountain - who sluiced up in another G1 here on Tuesday. He has been keeping good company this term, and his run in the G1 Deloitte Nov Hurdle is better than it looks, he was just too free and out of his depth. He won his mdn over 20f on Heavy, beating a couple of subsequent winners. He won his Pt2pt on Good/Y ground(should have won his other one, fell when clear at the last). He is by Anshan so he should handle the Good ground.
The dangers look to be Arvika Ligeonniere, he was 4th at Chelt over 3 miles(should've been 6th bar 2 fallers at the last) were he didn't quite stay. This big drop in trip, combined with the Good ground and his likely short price mean he is easily opposed. The other possible danger is Dr Whizz - he won his bumper and mdn hurdle on decent ground, before flopping on unsuitable heavy, he holds a victory over Puyol. There are too many question marks about him to make him a play at the price though. |
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I first looked at the Champion thinking it was the best race of the season, I ended up thinking it is weak renewal.
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"Race fitness is a bit of a concern as he has run only once this season, but he has been doing everything right at home these past few weeks." - From Mullins. No extra plunge this morning from me. Who knows about the track though.
Ruby said yesterday "He'd LOVE to be riding Hurricane Fly Tomorrow". The way he said it makes you think he rates the horse as much as I do. Solwhit - Ground Dunguib - Needs to prove it and hurdling poor plus ground concerns. Punjabi - Legend but is he over the hill? I wish Sublimity were here, he'd have an e/w poke fo sho. Anyway I think Hurricane Fly is the best 2mile Hurdler around and he'll prove it today. Fitness worries are a concern but her won here last year off at 4month break. |
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De Valira - hard to believe he's still only an 8yo, never quite made it to the top and is easily over looked here.
Dunguib - was unlucky in the Supreme being too far of the pace, had to run a race to get into the race. Trainer seems happy to let him go on the ground, and being a Presenting it really shouldn't be an excuse. Think he'll def be involved at the end, but I cannot be backing him at 100/30. Hurricane Fly - how fit is he? Willie got Quevega to win at Chelt fto after nearly 300days off and has had 7 winners so far this week. Won his mdn here on quick ground, won the G1 novices here on the steel last year, if all is well he takes all the beating. Medermit - the stable have had a torrid year, may want it softer. Easily passed on. Muirhead - ran well to finish 2nd at Aintree, but is a moody horse and the stable are in gash form. Will probably travel very well but be found wanting. Punjabi - loves the course - 1,1,2 here over the Cd. Form on Good over 16f - 1,2,1,1,F. He does look a big ew price at around 13/2, but his form has been poor and the stable have not fired here this week. Reluctantly passed. Ronoldo Des Mottes - his form of the 2nd to GMOOH in the TGT reads very well, but all his form is on soft or heavy, and its hard to see him being good enough in a hot renewal. Solwhit - Probably should have stayed at home and kept him fresh for this as opposed to taking in the CH with a less than 100% horse. Meets entirely faster ground than when winning this last year. Hard to write him off though. Thousand Stars - County Hurdle winner, will handle the ground, but looks out of his depth. Won In The Dark - ran on well over to stay on 4th behind Khyber Kim at Aintree, that trip looked too far for WITD, but it was the first time he'd encountered Good ground since winning the G1 4yo race here in 2008! His form on Good over 16f reads - 1,1,1. He has been well placed to win a couple of races this term, and on his best form he wouldn't have a lot to find to be involved here, worth a small ew @33/1. Voler La Vedette - ran well on in the Mares race at Chelt, just looked to be out stayed after running too free. Has good form around here, and being by Kings Theatre the ground should not inconvenience. A strong pace would suit. if she settles she has a chance. Am sticking to WITD ew here, but am between HF and VLV as a win bet?! |
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fancy anything else on the card CV?
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WITD, I was hoping to get some crazy odds for this horse today on here. NEEDs good ground and has run respectable 2nd at Christmas behind Sublimity before on it. But time and again is outclassed in Gr1 company so almost impossible to see a win, but any decent place odds will be taken by myself.
C2 e/w lay of Dunguib would be the**z today. I hope you can give HF credit if he shows his talent today |
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First time he's had his ground over this trip in 2yrs Cv.
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Here is why I think it is a poor Champion:
Dunguib - Placed in the Supreme. Punjabi - See if over wind op. Medermit - Flopped in Champion, no excuse given. Solwhit - Yard form. RDM - Handicapper. WITD - Not a Gr1 animal. Hurricane Fly - Long lay off to overcome. |
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6.05 - Am between Reve De Sivola & Fionnegas who would have been 4th in the AB bar a last hurdle fall, this trip is more his thing.
4.55 - No strong opinion, Shakervilz at 6s looks solid ew material, the ground and trip will suit. 4.20 - Again no strong opinion here - Pomme Tiepy & Tinakellylad ew against the field. |
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Your on glass-half-full mode today ewok ;)
You can always pick holes in any horse or field - use it to your advantage B-) |
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Bets for today..
Really like Invincible Soul in the Esher Cup. Came on leaps and bounds on every single run as a two year old, ending the season beating Fair Trade in a backend 1 mile Newmarket maiden. Fair Trade is a really well regarded horse, he won a maiden las week at Newbury in good fashion and is entered for the Dante and Derby. To top this Invincible Soul is bred to really only get going as he gets older so that 2yo effort looks even better. Trip/ground should be fine. Trainer in very good form with the champion jockey on board. A decent bet for me tomorrow at 6/1. Other bets at Sandown will be Azmeel for reasons on other thread and Dorback in the sprint, think first time out could be the time to catch him and he can finally deliver his early promise. At Punchestown, have backed three somehow in the Champion Hurdle, Dunguib and Voler La Vedette antepost and Hurricane Fly (who is now my main bet after changing my mind, due to mainly stable form). Other bets at Punchy are Askthemaster in the novice handicap chase, think he'll appreciate the step down in trip and class, Arvika in the novice hurdle, ground and trip should suit better than Cheltenham where he ran well. And High Benefit, the King bumper horse that I really like. Good luck. B-) |
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That's why VLV wins.
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MONEY TREE 22 Apr 20:55
DUNGUIBS GONNA WIN. MONEY TREE 22 Apr 20:55 IM LAYING WON IN THE DARK AS COVER. B-) |
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luska lad and dr whizz. Also treble on those two with hurricane fly.
Anyone thik luska is just a swamp fiend? |
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Start me up is an insane price in the 6.05. Has run with credit on soft all season. won on good in a bumer at cheltenham. 2nd in a maiden at punch in dec. ew added at 66/1
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Great spot CV. 0.5pt e/w with sidjames at 80s.
I remember someone on here sweet on Warne's chances last time out. Any chance today? |
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Got 100 on on start me up on here. No 100/1 shot.
I also like the stones. |
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Not sure Luska Lad will like it so quick underfoot. I'm having to shake myself at Start Me Up's price. Best outside shot I've ever seen.
CV, if that and the Fly come in, I dare say you'll be in orbit at the winning post! Other bets for today: 4.20 Omurcheartaigh 1pt e/w 25s; Ameretto Son 0.5pt e/w 50s 4.55 Kangaroo Court 1pt e/w 8s; 0.5pt e/w Wins Now 14s 5.30 Ronaldo des Mottes 0.5pt e/w 16s; Won In The Dark 0.5pt e/w 33s 6.05 Duke of Lucca 0.5pt win 9/2; 0.5pt e/w Warne 50s 6.40 Dr Whizz 1pt win 9/2 good luck all :-) |
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So maybe you'll break into song at the winning post. Enjoy the day, CV.
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Reve de sivola super mega lay? Surely He'll be out paced over 2m4f on good. He styed on to win carrying my money at newbury.
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Jam ;-) CV ;-)
CV enjoy the day up there... tricky card again and I've been good all week at picking shortners rather than winners.... :| thinking Chasing Cars is supremely well in but can't jump, if he jumps he'd be hard to beat off the mark...ran in the sun alliance and was poor but Jessie must still think he has something to even turn up there...any thoughts? |
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Gone with -
VLV 1pt ew @9/1 & 1/2pt ew Witd @33/1. GP Shakervilz ew @7/1 Mr Cracker win @11/2 Cv - I was on Reve DS ew at Chelt, think he actually wants Good gnd, but I dunno if i'll be a backer at 5/2? Enjoy your day with you pink shirt ;) |
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Jammy, nosey and all ;)
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dicky on Punjabi.
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pink shirt is a nice touch :-)
downy ;-) |
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Will be insane celebrations if either win jam.
Coming round to opposing luska along with reve. Both vulnerable on good over 2m4f. Foinneagas looking the bet. What we think lads? |
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das, nosey, g1 ;-)
Looks like a day for outsiders. quick ground, doubts over leading fancies (how on earth is dunguib favourite?). bookies benefit as per usual. Kangaroo Court would be my nap of the day. Will love the ground and trip will suit. |
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ewok2006 23 Apr 09:28
Here is why I think it is a poor Champion: Dunguib - Placed in the Supreme. Punjabi - See if over wind op. Medermit - Flopped in Champion, no excuse given. Solwhit - Yard form. RDM - Handicapper. WITD - Not a Gr1 animal. Hurricane Fly - Long lay off to overcome. fyi, ewok. Alan King is hoping Medermit can return to his best after being well-beaten in the Champion Hurdle when he was found to have pulled muscles in his back. "He was obviously disappointing at Cheltenham after he'd had such a good preparation but he did come back very sore and pulled a few muscles in his back," said King. |
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Cv - I think Fionnegas is a nice ew bet in this, I do like the fav RDS - whow ill love the gnd imo. Fionnegas was unlucky to be BD at Chelt, where he handled the Good gnd, but didn't stay 3miles. He's 2/2 over this trip, stable are flying, by Accordion so the gnd will suit ok, got closest to Dunguib(w/o troubling him) in Ireland this year. 13/2 ew looks a good bet.
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Invincible Soul now 7/2. got a fair chunk on at 6s B-)
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you put it on the FLAt thread Gunner ?
Smalls plays on Medermit (cliff horse for me) and Muirhead today. That's it, gl all. |
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Gunny ;)
How art thou? |
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no sint, I backed at 6s last night as my post said, but it's 7/2 now, so can't.
Fine thanks, down, you? |
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All good, looking fwd to the big race B-)
Sint ;) |
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if medermit wins i'll commit hare kare
only play is the fly so far. hopefully he will blow us away and make a square up with binocular something to savour next year :D |
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u not having a saver on Med plat?
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prepared to give nicanor another chance today, can excuse his last two efforts. Expected him to run very well in the jewson but his race was over at the 1st
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Cheers das. Going with foinneagas so. Quiscover fontaine ran well in a sizzling hot arkle. Mullins pick of that race. Check out his piece in irish independent today.
I don't want to be a fool if luska wins so may need a saver on him. |
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Pomme tiepy anyone? Mullins pulled from irish national because of ground then fell in topham. 10-12 is a fine weight and ground is perfect imo.
I seem to be a mullins follower today. Hmm. |