surely on pedigree St Nicholas Abbey CANNOT win 2000 Guineas?!

i agree - can't have him as a Guineas winner especially on decent fast ground.

HEArt of fire the value

thought about this myself,tricky one.........how can the beast produce a guineas winner,dunno but that RP win was effin awesome whatever happens

If you look at his pedigree its a bit like the reverse of last years STS,NOT as good but a mix of stamina and speed,STS had a miler as his sire out of a staying mare,SNA is by to date a stamina sire but his dam is by a miler.
If you really don't think he can win the GNS on paper,then perhaps go to NMKT then you will see him win.

Correct Norekk. At the price, a large lay.

GRIZLY 19 Apr 19:58
HEArt of fire the value

I agree this is the dark horse in the race.

He's the one they all have to beat. Speedily bred on the dam's side, he possesses loads of speed himself and a brilliant turn of foot. He won't mind good to firm ground either. (Aidan O'Brien and SNA's regular work rider have both expressed the view that SNA is not ideally suited by soft ground and that he would prefer quicker ground. Incidentally, the ground was riding faster than 'good' when SNA won at the Curragh last year.)

'Aidan O'Brien's Racing Post Trophy runners have gone on to contest 14 Group 1's over a mile or less at three without once reaching the first four. They've done so 22 times out of 45 at longer distances. So far 24 horses older than two sired by St Nicholas Abbey's sire Montjeu have tried to win a Group 1 over less than ten and a half furlongs. They all failed.' - Nick Mordin

With Jan Vermeer looking like the Ballydoyle hope for the Poulain it seems Coolmore are trying to redefine Montjeu's parameters as a stallion.

Nick Mordins Trends suck , did you see what he picked for the Craven Stakes , and Fred Darling using his Trends ( also rans ).

It's got nothing to do with Nick Mordin's trends. He just pointed out the facts - if you don't believe it check the stats yourself.

Coolmore are experimenting.

Again comes down to what price you are prepared to back a 'certainty'. Prima Donna - the comparisons with Sea The Stars are not logical as you cant get 8/1+ about St Nicholas Abbey.

Ive said it all winter, if SNA was 11/2 - 6/1 then id probably be a player, as he isnt, id rather be a layer.

pedigree isnt everything look at Midday by oasis dream related to top class milers running style is the main aspect when racing ova any trip the horse has to allow him/her self to settle/travel of a race pace and be able to quicken when needed. Just hopin he will be 100% on the day unlike last yr with RVW. Therefore SNA's running style and form on show suggests for me a 7/4 is a BACK!!!.

Stats can change, when was the last 2000 Guineas winner foaled in May ? Does not mean it is impossible.

The opposition this year looks poor.

If he turns up next week and the market vibes are strong, get on to your max .....


FOR THE DERBY.

Coolmore are experimenting. Mmmmm

They are running a fantastic 2yo champion, apparently with the best turn of foot of any 2yo of last season and with a wonderful temperament, and with form so solid that you cannot find any soft spot in it (even before it was further boosted by EP in the craven) in the first classic of the season.
Unless they had taken complete leave of their senses it was the only place to run him, a complete no brainer.

hmmmmm as they enter the dip will we see the similar whooooosh thet George Wash did

Shark12 19 Apr 21:29
'. Prima Donna - the comparisons with Sea The Stars are not logical as you cant get 8/1+ about St Nicholas Abbey

The comparisons I am referring to are on pedigree!

Where's the thread about 2000G foaling dates. RUled out the 2fav on that basis last year (didnt even run in the end) and now I see SNA is April. Pretty sure that of the 100 april foals to run in this race recently not one has even run a place. Jair was a contributor but I cannot remember who started it?

Yes and you are not comparing apples with apples.

Sea the Stars - 8/1+ = BACK
St Nicholas Abbey - 9/4 = LAY

Just because people were right about Sea The Stars doesnt mean they will be right about St Nicholas Abbey.

April foaling dates = Zafonic / STS, and May Rodrigo de Triano

Try telling Coolmore pedigree isn't everything. If they're were targeting one guineas with a Montjeu, fair enough, but two?

If SNA runs a guineas and fails it's no big deal. It gets written off as a Derby trial. If he was to win though Montjeu's value increases and he's worth considering to cover high class mares. It's a shot to nothing.

On all known facts the only way to play 7/4 is to lay it.

Hippie - well said.

Prima Donna
Of course you are right. There is in my view ever so slightly more stamina in the pedigree of Sea The Stars than in St Nick's. There is a problem, in that it tends to be only pretty exceptional horses that are bred to stay 12 furlongs that are quick enough to win over a mile at group 1 class at 3 years.
However SNA looks, so far, to be an exceptional horse. Remember the form of the RPT. Every single horse had won its l;ast race. A load of experienced and decent class horses were in opposition, including Goldolphon's next big thing, and the unbeaten Acomb Stakes winner, that everything he had had behind him at York had won since. Even the 4th horse in the Acomb Stakes went on to win the breeders cup juvenile.

Sna just didn't beat them, he utterly slaughtered them, showing the sort of turn of foot I hadn't seen a 2yo show since I don't know when, maybe Zafonic was the last. If he is within 3 lengths of the front at the furlong poll it will be thank you and goodnight. he does seem to be very god indeed.

"All known facts"

Like he is the fastest horse
He has the best form (by quite some way)
He has the best speed figure
He acts on good and soft ground
he arguably has the best trainer and best rider
He is bred to get 10 furlongs for certain but has more than enough speed for a mile

Thjese facts sound like he is the lay of the century. Good luck hippy but with logic like that I suspect you are going to get very poor.

"All known facts"

Like he is the fastest horse
He has the best form (by quite some way)
He has the best speed figure
He acts on good and soft ground
he arguably has the best trainer and best rider
He is bred to get 10 furlongs for certain but has more than enough speed for a mile


a) He isnt the fastest horse according to official times
c) His speed figure is atrocious and was in all of his 3 races as a 2yo
d) He is untested on anything better than Good ground
e) Debatable

Given this you want to back him at 9/4 because he showed the best form as a 2yo, is trained by Aiden O'Brien and ridden by Johnny Murtagh.

I agree with that,that also goes for Charlton.

He hasn't run this year but it is obvious he CAN win the guineas - i really believe in the merits of pedigree analysis and there is speed in there but in this situation I feel believing my eyes is as important. I have not backed him for the 2000 and won't now but I wouldn't be keen to lay an avalanche of Euros. I was very impressed with EP in the Craven but all the Craven meeting did was frank the Racing Post form over and over. St Nick is well clear imo. What price for he Derby after a guineas win?

lobster
I think the only way to get a bet on now is to have a fun bet for him to do the 2000 Guineas Derby double and to do the triple crown. You should still get about 8/1 and 14/1 with the enemy.

I wouldn't argue that this is value, nor would I personally think SNA is value at 7/4 for the Guineas, but I certainly would rather lay Canford Cliffs at 12/1 than SNA at 7/4 or even 6/4 just as matter of value and form.

if someone can give me a good reason (not stats based) that he wont beat the horse he thrashed into yesterday (elusive) last year. id like to hear it

shark

our 2 resident forum speed experts have SNA as top on speed figures, and I rather trust their hard work on such matters. The point about him being untested on going quicker than good is a bit academic since the clerk at HQ will doubtless water the course to ensure good ground if the rain stays away.

Randowm variation Perp?

Oh sh1t, that is stats based

:)

COT. I have him at 20's for Epsom so I am happy to watch the 2000. For what its worth I don't think he will stay the ledger trip so I wouldn't go for the triple crown bet.

Elusive Pimpernel may have improved since last year, he may be better on faster going, he has had a run and may be fitter than SNA. These are all decent reasons. Its for you to work out whether they are good enough for him to turn around the very sound thrashing SNA gave him last back end.

you can watch the rp trophy replay on the back of a spoon, and its still clear who will win a rematch.

That's what they said about New Approach Perp.

COT id rather trust the speed figures ive been using for a while now thanks - also compiled by hardworking individuals.

Ive said he isnt value for the race at Newmarket - that is my only opposition to him. He may win but at the price im prepared to let him.

What I do object too is people spouting a load of nonsense about how he is the second coming. Lets wait for the end of his 3yo career before we begin talking about his performances with such passion and describing his victory in the RPT as "truly exceptional".

EPimp, beat DDavid 4 lengths in the RPT, the same distance he beat him in the Craven, so has he improved ? Should come on for his first race of the season though.

shark

fair enough but its nice to dream.

Of course the chances are that he will lose in the guineas, That's why even the magicswine are odds against so far).

However I got a real buzz watching Sea The Stars last year and there is a fair chance this could be another one. A lot to prove of course.

It is great to dream, I hope it does happen as with STS (and hopefully this will attract more people to watch racing)....but there have been plenty of decent 2yo's that havent gone on to achieve what was hoped as a 3yo.

Regrettably the odds are that SNA will be one of them!.

All the Montjeus that won a Grp 1 race as 2yo, have they all gone on to win a Grp 1 race as 3yos ? Even Jukebox Jury 2nd in the RPT evenually won a Grp 1 race .

Motivator - Derby
Authorized - Derby and Juddemonte
Fame and Glory - Irish Derby

Jury is still out on Jan Vermeer and St Nicholas Abbey.

The opposition to SNA looks 3rd rate on all form shown and I can't really see a potential big improver. Arguments about him not having the right pedigree for the race are redundant as far as I'm concerned, as he's already shown what he can do over a mile on the racecourse. The only way I can see him getting beat is if he has regressed over the winter. This is something I find difficult to put a price on, so as I'm unfortunately not on at bigger prices I won't be backing him now but I certainly couldn't lay him against such a mediocre looking bunch.

The stats look promising :)

Having just created a list of 'contenders' based on foaling date (see other thread if interested, cheers Charlton!) I am in full agreement that viable alternatives are thin on the ground unless:

1. Canford Cliffs can defy everyone's view of him.
2. Godolphin / Al Zarooni can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Viable outsiders? I can't see them...

For the last hour I've been examining the race record of Montjeu's progeny. Very few win over 7f as a 2-y-o, most are 8f or further. I didn't find one that won over 8f as a 3-y-o. I'll admit I gave up without going too far down the offspring list, but its 10f and 12f and further.

So I put up a place lay of St Nicholas Abbey.

I can't find a sub-10f Group (non-2yo) winner from his 20 best progeny. Quite of few of his very best even made their debut over 10f or over 8f on heavy ground.

I checked the 33 Montjeu offspring rated 114 and higher.
As 2-y-o: 5 wins at 7f; 14 wins at 8f; 5 wins at 9f+.
As 3-y-o: 1 win at 7f (heavy); 1 win at 9f; 17 wins at 10f; 7 at 11f; 20 at 12f; 10 at 13f+.

St Nicholas Abbey to win the 2000 Guineas? Amazing if he does.

Falstaff was the 3-y-o 7f winner at Tipperary on heavy. His damsire was Pursuit Of Love (miler), and the dam's damsire was the sprinter reprimand.

looked ok to me in the rp trophy :|

^ Stick to the jumps, imo

;)

:(

:)

C'mon Plat, we know you were on STS at 20+ last year. Just kidding.

Good night.l

1mile in the racing post trophy in softish ground for a two year old

would equate to 1m 2f plus . so would people please stop saying sna is proven over a mile.

I don't buy into all this breeding stuff tbh

SNA showed by far and away the best piece of 2 year old form when bolting up in the Racing Post Trophy with some clearly useful horses in behind, and I think he did it more than a shade cosily.

If that SNA turns up in May, they are all playing for second imo

pressure is on C2

on the 4 timer for this race btw B-)

Blimey :0

**ney Rebel, Henry and STS??? :D

Gotta be a lay on pedigree, C2 knows ;)

STS was mine, Plat gets enough kudos :p

:^0

In that case, I am claiming Henry :x

fft - :^0

But I even beat Sir Tom, cnut copied me imo, did the same with Aran C in the Powers last yr :p

Tom Seagull is a guesser innit? :p

Hardly looked at this race tbh ;\

I have. SNA could be a freak, but given his sire & pedigree & 2yo career he is a massive lay here! Montjeu has never produced a G1 winner over 8f at 3 or older. Has produced very little C1 8f horses of the same age group. Combine that with plenty of stamina in the dam line.

Awzaan - i'm worried about, but looks very speedy, dam line and dosage same sprinter. Sire is a plus.

Elusive Pimp - my idea of the winner, has trained on, handles the course and gf ground. Think he's a great ew bet.

Cheers :D

Going to back on the day anyway, cba with antepost on the flat.

Who are the cast iron milers in this race?

Seems chock full of 10f horses to me, the sprinter Awzaan apart.

the lay preacher 20 Apr 00:01


1mile in the racing post trophy in softish ground for a two year old

would equate to 1m 2f plus . so would people please stop saying sna is proven over a mile

There have been plenty of horses that got a trip well in soft ground, without that necessarily qualifying them to stay further. I'm not saying SNA won't get further but it's assuming a great deal to say he needs a longer trip. Incidentally, the times indicate that the ground was only on the slow side of good for the RPT, not exactly a bog.

Montjeu threw the leg over and gave the ferret a run.

Good for him, he probably loved it, but it's got little to do with what St Nic will be doing at Newmarket three years later.

The horse is 3 for 3 at a mile and goes into the race fresh.

I doubt the mile will be what beats him if anything does.

I extended my look at the Montjeu offspring down to include those rated 110 (50 horses)

As 2-y-o: 6 wins at 7f; 17 wins at 8f; 6 wins at 9f+.
As 3-y-o: 2 wins at 7f; 1 win at 8f; 1 win at 9f; 23 wins at 10f; 9 at 11f; 24 at 12f; 15 at 13f+.

[one 3-y-o win at 7f was on heavy; the other two short distance wins by a 3-y-o were by Hurricane Fly at 7f and 8f, the 8f win was over Literato who went on to win the Champion Stakes, so speed by a Montjeu at three is possible)])

You read this & get the impression SNA only just got up in the dying strides after being outpaced & thrashed within an inch of his life to get every ounce out of the horse.
The trip in the R.P was irrelevant.
If you cant see hed have won that race comfortably over 5/6/7 any no of furlongs you like its time to pack up.
To me his breeding is irrelevant with regards to trip after a performance like that & you can lob your sire stats in to the bin I will take what ive seen over stats.
He was in a different league to the previous 10 winners hard ridden in behind & went past Elusive Pimpernel on the bridle without Murtagh even asking a question .
Quickened up in a matter of strides b4 being eased up.
Wont be the trip that beats him, wont be his breeding its whether he can reproduce that form on quick ground @ Newmarket & hope a wayward Canford Cliffs doest wipe him out going to the bushes(are they still there?)

AOB will know better than anyone where the horse is at and what he can do.

Despite what someone else has written on here, if he turns up in the Guineas and is beaten then that will hurt his career. He could win the Derby, King George, Arc and Breeders Cup yet many would still regard him as a plodder(compared to STS).

The expectation and hype on the horse is huge, if AOB has doubts about the Guineas he can skip it(make up some excuse) go straight to the Dante, win that and then head on to Epsom as originally planned, he'll still maintain his reputation.

Coolmore have too much to lose by him being beaten in a Guineas, if he turns up at Newmarket with Murtagh on board then pile on.

A couple more points to bear in mind:

1. Aidan O'Brien and SNA's regular work rider are of the opinion that SNA wants faster ground than he encountered in the RPT. In fact, they were concerned about the ground before the RPT and also before the recent racecourse work-out at the Curragh. They say that SNA acts on softish ground OK, but that he'll be better on a faster surface.

2. It has been stated that SNA is unproven on ground faster than 'good'. Strictly speaking, that's true, but take a look at the winning times for other races on the card at the Curragh when SNA won the Beresford and you'll realise that the ground was riding quite a bit quicker than 'good'. More like 'good to firm'. SNA clearly acts well on a fastish surface.

Only horse to do the RPT/2000 Guineas double - High Top 1971.

next one 2010 then.

People were similarly raving about Crowded House after he won the RP Mile. I see parallels. I think SNA will prove himself a top 10f horse. I don't think he'll win the Guineas.

jamesp
You keep saying that the ground at the Curragh when St Nicholas Abbey won was in your opinion on the fast side of good. Tthe going description was good, and I pointed out on another thread that the seconds per furlong posted by SNA were moderate compared with the other races on the card, as was the seconds per furlong posted by SNA at Doncaster. Visually he looked the part at Doncaster, but the time was average.

Kincsem, in the Beresford you're comparing times on the round course against times on the straight. In the RPT you're not accounting for the changing state of the ground.

Kincsem, I agree that SNA's winning time for the Beresford was nothing special, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the other winning times on the card indicate that the ground was riding quite fast. Therefore SNA is proven on ground that was riding faster than 'good'. According to the connections (who should know better than any of us) SNA is not ideally suited by dead or yielding ground, he prefers good or faster ground.

Re the beresford time, how did it compare to standard for that course? It was a LOT slower than the million mile the same day, but that was run on a different course.

Before Sadlers Wells sired his first Derby winner , pedigree experts , including Tony Morris if memory serves , were convinced that the horses stock did not stay . Then like busses , they came in bunches , and the horse became a source of stamina . Montjueu is still a relativly young sire , and as such maybe has not been bred to many mares that might have produce a speedy enough two year old . St Nicholas Abbey did not seem short of pace in the RP Trophy , rather the opposite in fact as he had to quicken twice from an un compromising position .

Didnt Generous break some trend in that he won a 5 furlong race in May and then won a Derby ? Any way , who has the best form despite the pedigree ?

Two-year-old winning times at the Curragh (27 September 2009):

CL Weld Park Stakes (7f): 1m 24.02s (-3.08)
Goffs Million Sprint (6f): 1m 12.31s (-2.39)
Beresford Stakes (8f): 1m 41.60s (-0.30)
Goffs Million Mile (8f): 1m 38.92s (-2.98)

For all four races the Racing Post used a Going Correction of -0.30s/f (firm). They don't seem to have differing standard times for the round mile and the straight mile.

How about the fact that in no way has O'Brien campaigned the horse like his Guineas runner. (For all that he appears to have decided to run)

Montjeu only had one rep in any Newmarket Guineas before - Solent.

What do you think should be read into that "stat" on his chances in the 2000?

Some nonsense been written regarding his times. But this is clear:

a) Doncaster RP was the 2yo time figure of the season (ahead of CC in the Coventry)
b) Beresford was slowly run, and SNa did well to win held up behind on what was ground riding shade faster than good
c) put up an outstanding time figure for a debutante that proved he was already Grp one material

Jamesp I looked at the RP results section and they don't commit on whether the time is quick or slow in the result. On my screen though they seemed to crawl early up the hill- which on my screen looks steep. It looks a very different course, perhaps our Irish friends could offer an opinion?

i would sna would have no problem with good ground .
but i would be worried if it was fast ground i.e good to firm .
james . because sna has won on good to firm once does not mean
he is proven on the ground .
as im sure you are aware they can all get away with it once.
its often the 2nd run on fast ground that catches them out.

Well if the long range forecast in England is right,you should have rain over in NMKT next week including Sat May1st.

have the long range forecasters also projected whether the rain will be able to penetrate the molten ash cloud also hovering over Newmarket? :)

So long as the ground not Firm or Heavy, best horse will win.

Trivia: winners of the Beresford Stakes in the last 50 years to win the 2000 Guineas the following year? Nijinsky; Sea The Stars.

Trial races won by past winners of the 1000 Guineas & 2000 Guineas (1960-2009)
(some horses won many trials: Nijinsky & Rock Of Gibraltar four each)

Race___________Wins___Fur____Age____1st__________2nd__________3rd

1000 Guineas Trials (1960-2009)
Cheveley Park_____8_____6____2-y-o__Special Duty___Misheer______Lady Of The Desert
Lowther__________5_____6____2-y-o__Lady Of The Desert__Beyond Desire__Dubawi Heights
Prix Marcel Boussac_5_____8____2-y-o__Rosanara_____On Verra_____Joanna
Cherry Hinton_____4_____6_____2-y-o__Misheer______Habaayib_____Lady Darshaan
Rockfel__________4_____7_____2-y-o__Music Show____Atasari______Tabassum
Fillies Mile________3_____8_____2-y-o__Hibaayeb_____Lady Darshaan_You'll Be Mine
Grand Criterium___3_____7_____2-y-o__Siyouni_______Pounced______Buzzword
Prix Robert Papin__3_____6_____2-y-o__Special Duty___Siyouni_______Dolled Up

Nell Gwyn________6_____7_____3-y-o__Music Show____Blue Maiden___Principal Role
Fred Darling______5_____7_____3-y-o__Puff__________Habaayib_____Lady Of The Desert


2000 Guineas Trials (1960-2009)
Dewhurst__________6_____7_____2-y-o___Beethoven____Fencing Master___Xtension
National Stakes_____6_____7_____2-y-o___Kingsfort______Chabal_________Beethoven
Railway Stakes______6_____6_____2-y-o__Alfred Nobel____In Some Respect__King Ledley
Middle Park_________4_____6_____2-y-o__Awzaan________Radiohead_____Showcasing
Champagne________3_____7_____2-y-o___Poet's Voice____Viscount Nelson__Silver Grecian

Craven____________5_____8_____3-y-o__Elusive Pimpernel__Dancing David__Critical Moment

You can see that 1000 Guineas 2-y-o trials are a mix of 6f,7f,8f although the 8f trial winners are not taking part in the 2010 1000 Guineas afaik.
The most popular 2000 Guineas 2-y-o trials are at 6f, 7f.

Explanation:
The Cheveley Park winner went on to win the 1000 Guineas in the following season eight times in the last 50 years from 1960 to 2009. Last year's winner was Special Duty.

Hibaayeb and Habaayib are different horses.

This is my own work so I'm not guaranteeing accuracy.

I just listed the trials won three or more times.

town moor, the race times from the Curragh were taken from the BHA official form book (as published by Raceform), apologies if I erroneously referred to the Racing Post...

the lay preacher, I agree that horses that aren't suited by fast ground can sometimes get away with one run on it but then won't let themselves down on it a second time, but the trainer of SNA is convinced that the horse wants faster ground than he encountered at Doncaster, and I conclude from those comments that good ground would be ideal and that good to firm ground would hold no fears.

my own interest in sna was how he was backed off the boards in his penultimate race and very heavily backed in the rp trophy from an initial price of 9/4 which I was lucky enough to get.
Come the day if he drifta I fully expect him to fail. If he is stron in the market I cannot see him losing.
Dunlop hopes he has regressed but is no fool. He is hoping for a place at best.

This SNA is so nailed on that I shudder to think how incredibly rich so many forumites will be after the race.

What amazing stakes/%s of bank will forumites be wagering on this horse that appears to have already crossed the finishing line first?

Kevbetting superstar 22 Apr 11:08
This SNA is so nailed on that I shudder to think how incredibly rich so many forumites will be after the race.

What amazing stakes/%s of bank will forumites be wagering on this horse that appears to have already crossed the finishing line first?

That's not really the point though. I've no intentions of backing the horse at the current price, but the question is whether there is any value in opposing him with horses that, frankly, don't appear up to the job of taking even an ordinary Guineas?