Horse Antepost
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Final declared runners for the Nell Gwyn on Wednesday (Newmarket 4.10), with form figures and best Racing Post Rating:
Music Show (Channon) (3lb ex) 1101- (110)
Atasari (Bolger) 6105122- (109)
Blue Maiden (McBride) 2125- (104)
Distinctive (Smart) 3117- (101)
Dyna Waltz (Gosden) 3215- (103)
Hafawa (Johnston) 121- (93)
Jacqueline Quest (Cecil) 217- (91)
Principal Role (Cecil) 1- (80)
Queen's Grace (Morrison) 8131- (102)
Safina (Stoute) 3- (71)
Srda (Brittain) -11 (89)
Stats for the last 30 runnings of the Nell Gwyn:
All 30 winners were making their seasonal debut
SP of winners: 8/13, 4/6, 4/5, 5/6, 6/4, 13/8, 13/8, 15/8, 2/1, 100/30, 7/2, 7/2, 7/2, 7/2, 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 11/2, 7/1, 15/2, 15/2, 8/1, 8/1, 8/1, 9/1, 11/1, 20/1, 20/1, 25/1, 33/1
Half the winners (15 out of 30) have started at 4/1 or shorter; 25 of the 30 winners have started shorter than 10/1
Trainers' record (summary of current form in UK & Ireland up to 11 April 2010 and finishing positions of their Nell Gwyn runners):
Bolger (3 winners from 36 runners): 8
Brittain (16 winners from 70 runners): 6186436102923608
Cecil (2 winners from 4 runners): 11125121279629345
Channon (6 winners from 69 runners): 72010665
Gosden (8 winners from 29 runners): 27610117
Johnston (47 winners from 190 runners): 55
McBride (2 winners from 8 runners): -
Morrison (5 winners from 26 runners): 8
Smart (15 winners from 78 runners): 0
Stoute (one winner from 5 runners): 54322171322835100438074
John Gosden has the best recent record (three winners from his last five runners). Henry Cecil has had five winners and five placed from 17 runners, but is none from nine in the last 22 years. Sir Michael Stoute has had three winners and seven placed from 23 runners, but is only one from 15 in the last 19 years.
Record of fillies carrying a 3lb penalty: 41234314953422912
Record of fillies carrying a 5lb penalty: 922461325
Overall record of fillies carrying a penalty: four winners and 11 placed from 26 runners
The Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes has produced six winners of the Nell Gwyn: two of them won the Rockfel, two were placed, two were unplaced
18 winners contested at least one pattern race (Listed or Group race) at two
13 winners ran at least four times at two
Seven winners ran only once at two (three of them were still maidens when they won the Nell Gwyn)
13 of the last 20 winners achieved a Racing Post Rating of at least 100 at two, the exceptions being Heart Of Joy (98), Lil's Jessy (95), Reunion (91), Petrushka (90), Cloud Castle (84), Karen's Caper (81), Infallible (75). In the last 20 years only four fillies have won the Nell Gwyn straight from a maiden victory at two: Heart Of Joy (won by 3 lengths, comfortably), Petrushka (won by three quarters of a length, cleverly), Karen's Caper (won by 5 lengths, comfortably) and Infallible (won by 1.75 lengths, ran on well).
Conclusion:
It's certainly possible to win this race with a filly having its first race outside pattern company, but only two trainers have achieved this feat in the last 20 years - Stoute (twice) and Gosden (twice). The trend has shifted slightly in the last ten years, with three winners in that period coming straight from maiden wins. Principal Role and Safina have any amount of scope for improvement, but they don't appeal as betting propositions here. The percentage call is to pick a more experienced filly, ideally one that has already contested at least one pattern race as a two-year-old. The following fillies were beaten so far on their final start in pattern races that it's hard to see them winning here: Blue Maiden (beaten nearly 8 lengths in the Oh So Sharp Stakes), Distinctive (beaten 10 lengths in the Rockfel Stakes), Jacqueline Quest (beaten 13 lengths in the Radley Stakes). Of those three, Jacqueline Quest is the most interesting, given that she was unsuited by the soft ground on her final start and is well worth another chance here on quicker ground. That leaves a short list of four: Music Show, Atasari, Dyna Waltz and Queen's Grace. Penalised runners are statistically much more likely to finish placed than to win here, although Music Show (the Rockfel winner) must be respected. Atasari is weighted to reverse Rockfel form with Music Show (three pounds better off for a neck defeat), but the Bolger horses have been very slow to hit form this year. Queen's Grace has the right kind of profile for this race but is sprint-bred and not certain to improve for this step up to 7 furlongs. John Gosden has the best recent record of any trainer in this race and his filly Dyna Waltz has very sound form claims (beaten 3¼ lengths in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile). Although she's dropping back in trip, she's not short of pace (she made virtually all when winning her maiden) and is the type to do well from two to three (her dam won this race before winning the French Guineas). Her jockey William Buick is riding out of his skin at present, having won the Dubai Sheema Classic on Dar Re Mi a couple of weeks ago.
Music Show (Channon) (3lb ex) 1101- (110)
Atasari (Bolger) 6105122- (109)
Blue Maiden (McBride) 2125- (104)
Distinctive (Smart) 3117- (101)
Dyna Waltz (Gosden) 3215- (103)
Hafawa (Johnston) 121- (93)
Jacqueline Quest (Cecil) 217- (91)
Principal Role (Cecil) 1- (80)
Queen's Grace (Morrison) 8131- (102)
Safina (Stoute) 3- (71)
Srda (Brittain) -11 (89)
Stats for the last 30 runnings of the Nell Gwyn:
All 30 winners were making their seasonal debut
SP of winners: 8/13, 4/6, 4/5, 5/6, 6/4, 13/8, 13/8, 15/8, 2/1, 100/30, 7/2, 7/2, 7/2, 7/2, 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 11/2, 7/1, 15/2, 15/2, 8/1, 8/1, 8/1, 9/1, 11/1, 20/1, 20/1, 25/1, 33/1
Half the winners (15 out of 30) have started at 4/1 or shorter; 25 of the 30 winners have started shorter than 10/1
Trainers' record (summary of current form in UK & Ireland up to 11 April 2010 and finishing positions of their Nell Gwyn runners):
Bolger (3 winners from 36 runners): 8
Brittain (16 winners from 70 runners): 6186436102923608
Cecil (2 winners from 4 runners): 11125121279629345
Channon (6 winners from 69 runners): 72010665
Gosden (8 winners from 29 runners): 27610117
Johnston (47 winners from 190 runners): 55
McBride (2 winners from 8 runners): -
Morrison (5 winners from 26 runners): 8
Smart (15 winners from 78 runners): 0
Stoute (one winner from 5 runners): 54322171322835100438074
John Gosden has the best recent record (three winners from his last five runners). Henry Cecil has had five winners and five placed from 17 runners, but is none from nine in the last 22 years. Sir Michael Stoute has had three winners and seven placed from 23 runners, but is only one from 15 in the last 19 years.
Record of fillies carrying a 3lb penalty: 41234314953422912
Record of fillies carrying a 5lb penalty: 922461325
Overall record of fillies carrying a penalty: four winners and 11 placed from 26 runners
The Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes has produced six winners of the Nell Gwyn: two of them won the Rockfel, two were placed, two were unplaced
18 winners contested at least one pattern race (Listed or Group race) at two
13 winners ran at least four times at two
Seven winners ran only once at two (three of them were still maidens when they won the Nell Gwyn)
13 of the last 20 winners achieved a Racing Post Rating of at least 100 at two, the exceptions being Heart Of Joy (98), Lil's Jessy (95), Reunion (91), Petrushka (90), Cloud Castle (84), Karen's Caper (81), Infallible (75). In the last 20 years only four fillies have won the Nell Gwyn straight from a maiden victory at two: Heart Of Joy (won by 3 lengths, comfortably), Petrushka (won by three quarters of a length, cleverly), Karen's Caper (won by 5 lengths, comfortably) and Infallible (won by 1.75 lengths, ran on well).
Conclusion:
It's certainly possible to win this race with a filly having its first race outside pattern company, but only two trainers have achieved this feat in the last 20 years - Stoute (twice) and Gosden (twice). The trend has shifted slightly in the last ten years, with three winners in that period coming straight from maiden wins. Principal Role and Safina have any amount of scope for improvement, but they don't appeal as betting propositions here. The percentage call is to pick a more experienced filly, ideally one that has already contested at least one pattern race as a two-year-old. The following fillies were beaten so far on their final start in pattern races that it's hard to see them winning here: Blue Maiden (beaten nearly 8 lengths in the Oh So Sharp Stakes), Distinctive (beaten 10 lengths in the Rockfel Stakes), Jacqueline Quest (beaten 13 lengths in the Radley Stakes). Of those three, Jacqueline Quest is the most interesting, given that she was unsuited by the soft ground on her final start and is well worth another chance here on quicker ground. That leaves a short list of four: Music Show, Atasari, Dyna Waltz and Queen's Grace. Penalised runners are statistically much more likely to finish placed than to win here, although Music Show (the Rockfel winner) must be respected. Atasari is weighted to reverse Rockfel form with Music Show (three pounds better off for a neck defeat), but the Bolger horses have been very slow to hit form this year. Queen's Grace has the right kind of profile for this race but is sprint-bred and not certain to improve for this step up to 7 furlongs. John Gosden has the best recent record of any trainer in this race and his filly Dyna Waltz has very sound form claims (beaten 3¼ lengths in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile). Although she's dropping back in trip, she's not short of pace (she made virtually all when winning her maiden) and is the type to do well from two to three (her dam won this race before winning the French Guineas). Her jockey William Buick is riding out of his skin at present, having won the Dubai Sheema Classic on Dar Re Mi a couple of weeks ago.
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Replies: 69
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In a race with plenty of once raced maiden winners I'd be looking to take on the obvious form picks, Dyna Waltz particularly given I don't believe she wants dropping in trip.
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Hi Ben, In the last 30 years only four winners of this race have come directly from a single race in maiden company - Martha Stevens (1987), Heart Of Joy (1990), Petrushka (2000) and Infallible (2008). Three others have won on the back of a solitary start in better than maiden company (conditions race or Listed race): Sonic Lady (1986), Ghariba (1988) and Cloud Castle (1998). That leaves 23 winners that have run at least twice beforehand. All the previous lightly-raced winners of this race had won their maiden with plenty in hand, so I'll be looking to take on the two least experienced fillies (Safina and Principal Role). Gosden has a good line to Safina (his filly Scorned finished one place in front of Safina at Newmarket). I'm glad there's a difference of views on this race, it makes it all the more interesting!
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I've backed Principal Role for the Oaks, but I agree with james here, she doesn't look like a betting proposition in this race, although I hope she runs well, a staying on third would be good.
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Yeah they're all fair points guys, always worth remembering the experience is more important for some trainers than actually winning whereas something with a profile like Dyna Waltz looks the sort to be picking up the early season prizes before the others get going. Will have a closer look later, declarations should be out by now?
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yeah they're declared.
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hard race depends on the price may have a little pop at Srda,we know she is well(yes she has alot to prove at this level),but maybe if she is double figure price she could give us a run for our money.I see the dam is a half sister to Russian Rythm.
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Asatari looks the most likely winner to me.
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enjbenjy, I'd agree with you about Atasari if the Bolger horses were in better form, but she's likely to need the race. I hope she runs well, though, as I've backed her quite heavily for the 1000 Guineas (for which she still looks considerably overpriced at around 40/1). Whatever she does on Wednesday, she's sure to improve considerably.
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Safina really interests me as she's by Pivotal out of Russian Rhythm and there was plenty to like about her debut last autumn. Stoutey wounldn't be running her in something like this if she wasn't up to it when he could take in a maiden first.
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If Safina is a short price I'll definitely be looking to lay her, as she has the weakest form of the 11 runners.
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i can't get my head round, why people fancy Safina, sure her first run was promising and she is well bred, but people are only guessing at how good she is, maybe she is a tester for Tabassum. cheers.
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I don't think Asataris form is anywhere near good enough to win a Guineas. Are you expecting her to improve a lot this year?
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Isn't Music Show third favourite for the Guineas? That's not bad form tbf, definitely one for early season races and I see Bolger's having a few winners lately.
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Never mind, think I've misunderstood, take it you don't like Music Show either though?
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I'm sticking with my 1000G horse Music Show, she was going away from them lto.
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Music Show has a definite chance and Mick Channon's very happy with her. The stable has yet to hit top gear, though, and the percentage call in these trial races is not to back the penalised runners. Atasari is weighted to reverse Rockfel places (she was only beaten a neck by Music Show and is 3lbs better off) and she improved in leaps and bounds last autumn. Music Show and Atasari would only need to improve by about 5-7lbs on their Rockfel form to have a major chance in the Guineas. With Music Show around 16/1 and Atasari 40/1 for the Guineas, I think the latter is considerably overpriced. I'm just worried that Atasari may not be forward enough to do herself justice on Wednesday.
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In my opinion she will be, her big chance this year of picking up a nice pot is early season I think.
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Jim Bolger says that Atasari is hardy and will be up to a busy season.
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Hard to argue with that jamesp, however i'm on Music Show at 25s, so am looking for a big show on Wednesday.
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Dyna Waltz seems to have been campaigned by Gosden as if she's his best filly but just doesnt look that good to me. Few here that could struggle for pace at 7f.
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a wee outsider for this race could be Hafawa. improved with every run last year but against nothing of the quality on show here. cheers.
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Dyna Waltz was absoltely hammered by Seta in a maiden second time out, but there's no doubt she had improved considerably by the time she ran in the Fillies' Mile. I expect William Buick to attempt to make all the running on her in the Nell Gwyn, so it could be a good bet to back her with a view to laying off in running.
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Nice research jamesp, prob not the best race from a trends angle to find the winner. In the last 10 years 2 fillies with the best APM have won and both at good prices , Speciosa 9-1 and Silcas Gift at 25-1.
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Just spotted a clanger in my original post: "It's certainly possible to win this race with a filly having its first race outside pattern company" should, of course, read "It's certainly possible to win this race with a filly having its first race outside maiden company....."!!
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Dyna Waltz
Given the positive comments re this filly , is it worth a tickle for the 1000G ? |
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Looks a weak trial to me compared to the Fred Darley.
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Fred Darling even
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Good preview jamesp.
I'm a fan of the trends, been assessing the Guineas myself recently. |
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james, I agree about Atasari and now she's entered in the Nell Gwyn I'm guessing the Newmarket guineas is the target so I've backed her e/w. I've also had a small bet on Tabassum but Music Show is my main play. I'm banking on the Rockfel form, obviously, these three were well clear of some very useful fillies.
Going to Newmarket tomorrow, hoping for a bold show from Music Show and Atasari, also looking forward to Timepiece :) |
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I'm backing Music Show big for the guineas but I just have a nagging doubt about tomorrow. It's not the weight, I think Music Show will prove to more than 3lbs better than Atasari (certainly over a mile). I just worry that it will really need the run tomorrow in a similar way to when Channon ran Nahoodh in the Fred Darling before being unlucky not to win the 1000 with that.
This is from Channon's website:- MUSIC SHOW HEADS FOR THE NELL GWYN IN GOOD HEART Having worked yesterday, Mick considered Music Show's chances in Wednesday's Nell Gwyn as she basked in the long awaited sunshine in the fillies' picking paddock this morning. "I've said time and again that the Guineas meeting comes too quickly and after the winter we've all had, I'm not going to change my opinion now. There's plenty of obstacles before we reach that meeting, but it's a challenge I enjoy and running her in the Nell Gwyn, despite her penalty for winning the Rockfel, is the right move. "Our older horses have started the season in good shape and although we will have to wait on our two year olds as we always seem to have to at West Ilsley, Music Show is in good form at home. She has the ability to be a genuine contender, but I think we have to run her. It makes far more sense than working her at home and sending her on a racecourse gallop. "We've had a lot of joy in the trials with our fillies, but the one who really springs to mind is Nahoodh, who only beat two home in the Fred Darling in 2008. She was very backward in her coat and certainly needed it - that run brought her on so well though that she should have won the Guineas at a canter in my opinion, but for trouble in running. "The Guineas became something of an issue for us with everyone asking when we'll win a Classic, but this year we've been very much left alone to get on with things. That's a positive for us, nobody can make the pressure greater than me that's for sure, but after the last few years, I'm just happy to be training horses like Music Show. "The Guineas means a lot to us and Music Show has form in the book. I just hope it's our time, for Jaber and everyone at West Ilsley - the Nell Gwyn is hopefully the start of an exciting period." Maybe I'm reading too much into it but he makes a straight comparison with Nahoodh which makes me think the horse will really need the run tomorrow. No trainer that thinks he has a potential guineas winner in his yard will have it fully wound up for a trial that is 3 weeks from the main event. Honestly I think it would be wise to see what she looks like before the race, if she looks looks she did the day of the Rockfell then that would be enough for me to have a bet. If not then I'll leave alone and hope for a good run. I will be happy for her to stay on into a place tomorrow if I'm honsest and think that is the most likely outcome. |
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Can anyone name a Channon horse to have run well in the last month?
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Did they give a reason for the poor run at Ayr?
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Ben - His form could be better, but has had plenty of placed horses, Think Print & Montaff probably ran best.
Benjy - think I'd blame the draw for that effort at Ayr, was drawn in stall 10, need to be in 1-2-3 over 6f at Ayr, winner was in 3 & 3rd in 1. |
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Can't blame the draw for the poor run at Ayr - she was well beaten by others on the stands' side (Beyond Desire and Conniption).
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Cheers Down, just remember a few of his disappointing lately when you'd expect a bit more, think Music Show Guineas backers should be happy with a place tomorrow with the penalty she's carrying. That said it's one of them which could be a hot race or it could be rubbish depending on whether Stoute's and Cecil's deliver on the antepost hype.
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jamesp - i'm obsessed with the draw at Ayr! It pays ;)
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The turn around with Distinctive is probably why people do James, what are your thoughts on her?
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Channon has had 23 runs on the turf this season and had 6 seconds and a third. He's also been running quite a lot of his 2 year olds which are not exactly forwards at the moment which is well known. By his own admission his older horses are further ahead than his 2 year olds. I'm not saying his form is good but their are reasons.
That said, I'm not suggesting backing Music Show for tomorrow. Def one to watch unless she looks really good for me. I am suggesting she has a lively chance for the 1000 but the value in her antepost isn't really there right now unless you can be really confident of a bold show tomorrow. |
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You would not have backed Nahoodh for the Guineas after her prep run in the Fred Darling but she showed tremendous improvement , and looked to be very unlucky in the Guneas.
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