Horse Antepost
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12 Apr 10
13:35
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Date Joined:
09 Jul 02
Now I know that, bar injury, Ryan should land it quite comfortably, but injuries and suspensions do happen.
And if you look at the runners behind him it becomes quite interesting. Fallon is next best but he's not given the impression that's he's up for a slog at night meeting after night meeting.
Richard Hughes will ride a hell of a lot of winners for Hannon but that hasn't been good enough in the past and it probably won't again.
Dettori started earlier than usual but again is he really up for a mid-summer slog and who knows what kind of form Godolphin will be in?
Which brings us to the current pacesetter, Paul Hannagan. Still available at 40/1 with Labdrokes but as short as 16/1 elsewhere. What also is interesting, to me anyway, is that on the handicap market he was given the same start as Fallon, yet one is 7/2 on the outrights and the other is a 40 's shot.
To me the Labdrokes price is wrong and should be a lot closer to the Fallon and Dettori prices.
All views welcome.
And if you look at the runners behind him it becomes quite interesting. Fallon is next best but he's not given the impression that's he's up for a slog at night meeting after night meeting.
Richard Hughes will ride a hell of a lot of winners for Hannon but that hasn't been good enough in the past and it probably won't again.
Dettori started earlier than usual but again is he really up for a mid-summer slog and who knows what kind of form Godolphin will be in?
Which brings us to the current pacesetter, Paul Hannagan. Still available at 40/1 with Labdrokes but as short as 16/1 elsewhere. What also is interesting, to me anyway, is that on the handicap market he was given the same start as Fallon, yet one is 7/2 on the outrights and the other is a 40 's shot.
To me the Labdrokes price is wrong and should be a lot closer to the Fallon and Dettori prices.
All views welcome.
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Replies: 24
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agree, wont win it but is value!
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Interesting argument. Will certainly get a lot of rides from Fahey....what price is Joe Fanning?
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Cut into 20's by Laddies. Still 25's with Paddies.
Still overpriced in my opinion. |
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If Fahey keeps his form going for another month could trade a lot shorter, think he'll get picked up though.
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In the first 3 weeks of the season he is already up to 20% of last seasons total.
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Ryan Moore 45 205 22%
Paul Hanagan 44 221 20% Richard Hughes 40 209 19% Jamie Spencer 28 172 16% Frankie Dettori 27 156 17% Kieren Fallon 26 192 14% Ryan Moore 1/3 Kieren Fallon 6 Richard Hughes 16 Frankie Dettori 16 Paul Hanagan 20 Jamie Spencer 50 Quick update: Ryan has hit the front as expected, but Hanagan and Hughes hanging on in there. Fallon is currently making the market behind Moore, best price 6/1, as short as 3/1 with the Tote but a 14% strike rate is nowhere near goo enough to be competitive. Hanagan had a quiet spell, but has picked up again and is almost halfway to last seasons total and has picked up some rides for K. Ryan, at 20/1 he's still overpriced. Hughes is ahead of last seasons total, mainly thanks to Hannon and although its not been good enough in the past 16/1 is a reasonable price to be interested at the moment. Spencer and Dettori still not at the races imo. |
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Paul Hanagan 7-13 48 249 19% +42.18 £277,465 £391,401
Ryan Moore 8-6 47 215 22% 0.43 £546,778 £884,433 Richard Hughes 8-6 42 219 19% 19.89 £449,489 £662,882 Kieren Fallon 8-6 33 214 15% 25.99 £218,509 £395,558 Frankie Dettori 8-7 32 169 19% 56.25 £308,745 £499,944 |
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i have backed richard hughes at 20/1 no point backing r moore at 1/3 on bans and maybe a injury etc .. Can happen to any jockey ...
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Fallon on the charge
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Ok, another quick update. Hannagan is 4 clear of Moore and 6 ahead of Hughes.
Moore 2/5 Hannagan 7/1 Hughes 7/1 Hannagan has a good book of rides today whilst the other 2 are suspended. Prices are still out of line imo. It is noticeable that the amount good outside rides are increasing for Hannagan and the form of the Hannon horses continues to be good. I would see it more as a 4/6 and 4's each of 2 market. |
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My current position on this:
P Hanagan +891.42 The rest -33.54 Moore is now 8/15 Fahey's horses in food form so think I will leave it a week or so and see if Moore goes to 4/6, and look to cover some as think it is a two man race |
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Paul Hanagan 87 450 19%
Richard Hughes 77 396 19% Ryan Moore 72 375 19% Moore 1/1 Hanagan 11/8 Hughes 12/1 It's been a good week for Hanagan and Hughes. The noticeable point for me though is the lack of doubles being done by Moore. Looking at the RacingPost entries he is only riding the one meeting a day, whereas the other two are still putting in the maximum meetings allowed. It could be because his wife is expecting some time in September. If that continues then his price could drift even more. The one problem for Hughes is the amount of 1 day bans he is picking up, if he can avoid these then 12/1 is still to big imo, as he is up for it. Hanagan is still picking up good outside rides (winners for Prescott and Noseda this week) and Fahey remains in good form. It could just be a matter of time before we have a flip-flop. |
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Two winners for Hanagan today, and only one for Moore [:)] so I think that makes it:
Hanagan: 96 Hughes: 80 Moore: 78 |
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Thanks to the generous chaps at lads and bill hill I've levelled out for equal profit on all 3.
If anything Moore is overpriced now, just imo of course. |
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 And still the slight chance of the double whammy  |
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SHOUT!
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Fantastic stuff, hope you kopped plenty
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Awesome, well done.
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Thanks, plenty of turkey to go around this xmas
As for next season, someone has beat me to the best price on my early outsider  but there's still plenty of 50's available  |
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De Sousa ?
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Right, now it's basically 2/1 the field do I just put a lump on Hanagan even though he's having q shocker coz Ryans not interested
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Just realised Hanagan 24 behind last year,
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Top for Bonk
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