T0TESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 09/02/08

Evening AR. Feeling ropey so will be on here/watching tv tonight. Catch you laters...

got 4 savers but it has to be the Dream for me!

Any recommended viewage hfc? I rarely watch much tv tbh.

gl TSS :p

Same here normally unless it's sport - don't really have the time. But Peter Kay's now on 4 and that always cracks me up!

and you mate. BBC 1 will be great at 11.35 if you have the right numbers.

that/he

no numbers forgot TSS :(

Seen this one I think hfc but he is good will leave it on for a chuckle ;)

de-icer pmsl!

Classic, although I think he might have been on the mark judgng by her moves! :0

Re my sock eating promise:

Victram: Not a 5yo, unplaced last outing, not run for 7 weeks, grount not soft enough, doesn't stay an end to end gallop (as you'd expect from it's breeding).

Kings Quay: Not a 5yo, poor run last time out, not run for 11 weeks,
may not be fast enough ground, too exposed now.

Pace Shot: Could surprise and finish best of Snowie's three but equally likely to tail off.

My ratings give the following shorlist:

Five Dream
Streets of Gold
Jayo
Whispered Promises.

I also have a lovely position on Mohayer at 100-1 down but I've laid most of it back now.

My ratings give the following banker lays:

Victram
Platin Grounds
Mephisto

Playing truant with the facts there Martin ;)

My dangers to Five Dream are Jayo, Roman Villa and Carriola

Truant AR ? Kindly explain yourself my boy.

ok laddy ;)

Victram: Not a 5yo eh?, unplaced last outing huge speed gigures ran a stormer on ground too quick, not run for 7 weeks that's a positive, grount not soft enough open to debate, doesn't stay an end to end gallop Big handicap form suggests he does (as you'd expect from it's breeding).

Kings Quay: Not a 5yo eh? , poor run last time out that's a poor comment and you know it!, not run for 11 weeks, again a positive may not be fast enough ground drying all the time but fair enough owner says only concern, too exposed now this race often goes to classy types, he's achieved more than most in the race.

Only real neg you have is the ground, the rest are playing hooky.

It was the strong pace that found out Victram last time IMO, if it's a slowly run race tomorrow as it was last year, then it may make the 10 but otherwise the whip will be up running to two out and the tank will be reading "E" !

How can such a long break be an advantage. Past renewals of the race suggest the opposite.

I have the biggest place lay prices up about Victram and KQ so help yourself !

God I'm exhausted :-(

Not bothered about the places as have the winner, but ta anyway :p

Cracking thread though, needed a distraction from this Charltenharm stuff :| !!

in 2004 Geos won, after not running since 29 November...

The '99 winner did the same thing...

Since 2000 (when my trends analysis begins) there have been 56 horses running after a break of 47+ days. Of these 56 there has been 1 winner, 7 placed and 48 unplaced. Can we leave it there fella as I'm on a promise. Catch you bright and early :-)

Go enjoy!! I have a poker game to play lol;
stats shmats though, those analysing the 2005 race would have known that in the previous 6 years, 33% of winners had had their 'prep' run in November. Lies, damn lies....etc

Be careful is all I'll say, on both counts!

Good luck with the poker fella. Laters.

ty, great input as always cheers, catch you in the morn :)

Last 10 winners, day since last run :-

2007 Heathcote 14
2006 Abandoned
2005 Essex 34
2004 Geos 77
2003 Spirit Leader 27
2002 Copeland 14
2001 Landing Light 14
2000 Geos 35
1999 Decoupage 77
1998 Sharpical 35
1997 Make a Stand 21

Kings Quay days since last run 77...I wouldn't be worried!

Off to bed for five dreams...

1pt on each Blue Bajan / County Zen 15/2 20/1.

gl. mother**ers. ;) :)

J.ROZEL 09 Feb 00:20

Pricewise / Tom Segal

Palomar
3.20 Newbury
2pts win @ 13-2 generally

Roman Villa
3.20 Newbury
1pt win @ 12-1 generally

Valuescope

Moahyer
2pts e/w @ 20-1

Kings Quay
2pts e/w @ 33-1

At least you haven't been pricewised pmt ;)

Five Dream 16.50 win 7-1 e.w.
Mohayer 46.0 to win 33-1 e.w.
Platin Grounds 40.0 win 7.6 to place.

Mohayer and Five Dream my biggest winners, Platin Grounds not so much. Couldn't let Platin go, always liked this one. The break will have been just what he needed and I expect him to have improved. David England is a massive bonus cos he rides this one so well.
Any other bets for me today will just be pennies, but maybe a lucky 15 ,McCain's 4 at Ayr. And Regal Heights against Denman, well...., I did say pennies.

Just had some more on Platin Grounds 46.0....that's way too big.

Money for Kings Quay this morning!!

Morning all.

Beat me to it Terry - it was trading close to 50s last night. Does valuescope really have that much effect ?

Trainer Adrian McGuiness said: "I think the ground will suit. He ran a cracker there last year - he was only beaten four lengths - and he loves the place.

"We overdid the waiting tactics last year but there a lot of hold-up horses in the race tomorrow so it should suit.

"Hopefully mine will be coming the latest.

"Hopefully we are going to be bang there on the line. My lad is in great form and he ran a blinder on firm ground at Ascot which he didn't like.

"He won't have to improve too much to be in the firing-line and I think he has (improved).

"Kevin (Tobin) has ridden him a couple of times and should know him better now.

"I think he gets on well with the horse and the key to him is not to come too early.


dead right ado, thats all i needed to hear

B-)

Platin Grounds again, @50.0....I do get sucked in! Now become my biggest winner.

Can't quite beliveve i've done it but with so many respected forumites on board... i've backed Victram!

Uhhh... hate to add another horse but that quote from the trainer was the last straw. One case whether i'd rather be down that not on board if he came home.

Anyway I think his price is wrong on the spreads so I've back him with SI. The've priced him 1-3 so i've bought with 0.66pts at that price (equivalent of 2pts if I went e/w with a high street firm). Not too much difference with them if he wins but with the idices @ 50-30-20-10, I won't be as disapointed if he comes a short-head second.

does KINGS REVENGE have a chance what do you guys think?

Good luck to Victram backers but looking at last year's race he was pretty much alongside Caracciola jumping the last but lost the best part of 2 lengths to that horse on the run-in. A few pounds worse off this year - I can't quite see him turning that form around. He has also run well without looking likely to win off his current mark of 132. Big price though.

I've a good feeling about Whispered Promises who ran a blinder lto having his first run for 9 months and, more tellingly, his first run for the Pipe yard after being owner/trained. On the basis that he'll improve for both the run & the change, I think he's good value @ 12s

No point in starting another thread for today as this one has served us so well.

Ayr 2.20 Harry Wood 2pts 7/2
Newbury 3.55 Master Builder 2pts 7/1

These 2 pulled a long way clear in an admittedly ordinary novice hurdle LTO. Noting has come out since to frank the form or otherwise but my impression was they could be 2 decent horses.

Good luck all B-)

Final picks :

Kings Quay 1pt e/w @ 28/1 (Ante-Post)
Mohayer 1pt e/w @ 18/1

Good luck to all :).

Cant see how Victram can win this year when he failed to in 2007 when he had 2lbs less to carry on preferable ground.

i can, very unlucky in the way the race panned out and got a mince ride

openide

best fresh
nice mark allowing for claim
will stay
likes the ground
likes smallish fields
weak race

40/1

1pt e/w

jury out a bit on VPU at the moment so going to chance taking him on with Masterminded who i was impressed with fto.

2pts 7/4

other than that another 1/2pt on KQ and some place savers on both in the big one

gl lads

B-)

Wingman looks pretty solid to me. him along with Mohayer and Whispered promises are my three against the field.

Does anyone think that Wingman was always going to be Jamie Moores mount.

not a great race for me in the past, and will plump for selections at the opposite ends of their careers, Blue Bajan and Carriaciola.

Blue Bajan must win this off 10-4 to be supreme novice class, has the flat speed, will he put it all in, i betting he will.
with the amount of smart novices Henderson has at his disposal, one could of thought he could of plotted one up, but instead stuck with the old boywho on reports is still in good nick. Likes the course and a cavalry charge, so will be an eway selection.

other bets today include Kruguyova, who seems like the one best suited by todays course. Campanero at Ayr is a very interesting novice, and johnson can ready one after a break. Not a lot in the race. fap unproven over 3m. Shipmaster is another intersting one stepping back up after a couple of pipe openers.

so is it good to soft winter ground or summer ground ;)

looked firm to me ;\

Mephisto is a ridicious price at 40/1. Ran a very encouraging seasonal reappearance in the Fighting Fifth before tiring late on. That effort suggested to me that the horse is capable of reproducing the form showed as a novice. Form which included beating eventual Triumph hurdle 2nd Faasel when giving away 11lbs. Feisably weighted and with conditions to his liking this lightly raced 9yo is more than capable of putting in a bold show and big odds.

Mephisto @ 40/1 1pt e/w
Mohayer @ 66/1 1pt e/w

Two at the head of the market that warrent respect are Roman Villa who put up a bold effort lto on ground far from ideal and County Zen who is three times the price of Blue Bajan.

Roman Villa @ 13.0 0.5pt WIN
County Zen @ 26.0 0.5pt WIN

B-)

wd with MM plat

Nicholls on a five-timer going into the Goatsport :0

and then it comes assunder ;)

Five Dream - Five timer.

few quid on celestial gold :p

Dark Destroyer - Many thanks for the tip at Ayr - got me off to a good winning start

Harry does the business at Ayr, nice boost for Master Builder who gave him weight and a beating.

Strange run by Mahogany Blaze, if you're going to supplement a horse you may as well put him in the race. Probably didn't do his Cheltenham chances any harm as he hardly had a hard race - but why bother ?

wd dd!

well done lads.

MB shortens for the Arkle - albeit more due to MOM than his own run.

Leslingtaylor backers won't mind though ;)

nothing to fear for LT

all down to nolands prep run now

^ agree

Mohayer 2pts eachway 14/1 (5places)

Stable going extremely well at the moment and scrapes into the race off 10stone with his excellent jockey taking off another 7lbs. First time blinkers could also get some improvement out him. Should reverse form with Five Dreams and hold off Whispered Promises again and I expect him to run a huge race.

While a few of us are on here what did everyone make of the form of Carruther's race yesterday ?

victram looks like he's just stepped out of a sauna :(

Kings Quay out to 9/1 for a place on here, unbelievable.

ffs

Get the F*** in there!!!!

Well done with WINGMAN lads!

hmmmmm Punjabi ran a stormer there....file that won away for the festival imo.

Well done trev for the early shout!!!

4th @ 40s as well ;)

Pleasing result.

w/d winners.
Just for a moment I thought Mohayer was going to do it :(

top shout trev

nice work

3 horses backed never mentioned - Sick

Needless to say my picks were gash :_| ffs

Backed Wingman lto and wasn't suitably impressed. Head against wall.

wd hfc, trev nails it 2 years running!! ;)

Plenty of talk on the 1st page about how Gary Moore was the man to watch - shame I ignored it!

Well done all you Wingmand supporters.

Wipe out - well done Wingman backers.

hello.

:^0

well done mate

i shall now be referred to as king of the tgt.

GGGGEETTT IIINNNN!!!

Oh so modest terv! apologies to forumites if I wasn't so restrained but when you luck has been out it's just pure relief to have a winner.

Mis-timed my last post!

trev w 10 Jan 17:15
AR..i must admit i did like the look of him lto,over atrip to far...but also like another glm horse this year.

Eight posts in. Sneaky.

nice work hfc - deserved

indeed

LOL H, biggest i got was 130s ...10 down on last yrs 140 lol..

well done wingman backers. layed off most of my mug five dream place bet after seeing how the ground had dried out. needs a lot more juice i would think and was always struggling to pick them up

prob plat was right his form wasnt great either

AR, idid introduce him on page 2...so just a little sneaky..

Makes your 75s on Teslin look quite puny really :D

Cheers Plat and AR. This game can really make you question your sanity. I nearly ralfed when he won such was the relief!!

Bet you don't feel that ropey now! ;)

cheers lads btw,could'nt believe how well he was going and then thought he hit the front to soon,didnt shout till about 2 yards from the line!!

Feeling much better, thanks AR :)

Well done all Wingman backers :). Backed him at Sandown but left alone today - Mohayer's 4th place at least gave me a profit on the race :).

Trev, remind me to back whatever your backing next year ;). Outrageous stuff :D.

GGEETT IINNN!!

sorry, just had to do that again..calm now.

Well done Trev and all Wingmen

Picked the wrong bloody Moore horse! :-(

Well done to winners, complete blow out here, need the football to dig me out the mire!

Well, another turn up as far as the places go with none of the big three in the first 6 home. I am only eating a corner of one sock, as I although I did say I will eat my socks if either Kings Quay, Victram or Pace Shot finished in the top 10, I also said that the rag Pace Shot could be the best of them, and it only just nicked 10th !

Again the 5yo's were very much to the fore and again I am left scratching my head a little ! Well done the Wingman backers. I believe Five Dream left his race behind at Cheltenham and in the circumstances battled on well in 7th. Needs a good rest now and one to oppose at Cheltenham IMO.

Please Mohayer landed the 100-1 ew money but the other places did me no favours. Oh well all good fun :-)

wd winners.

Was very surpsied to hear on the morning line some bookies were going 5 places so had another 0.5pt ew on County Zen.

had 2pt ew on Able Forge 4.45 warwick, was backed all day but got 2nd :( !!

Pmt-hope Kings Quay came out of the race ok.

Terry, yes he is sound this morning.The jockey reported the ground was dead and he wasn't picking up on it after getting into his usual position on the heels of the leading group coming into the straight.he finished tired and blew hard afterwards so he will come on for the run.the County is the target and he may have a run on the flat before.

Well done to Trev and others who picked out Wingman.

trev w 28 Jan 20:14
as martin pipe has already pointed out,mon michel does now have a decent wt pull with five dreams, but at bigger prices heres another couple of possibles.

kings revenge..7lbs better off for 4.75l with mon michel on ground probably to soft for him,over c/d
been running well all season,and was running on all to late behind jack the giant lto.
@100s+ on here looks overpriced.

my second one tonight may struggle to get in,but iwas glad to see gl moore leave him in at the last decs stage.....1lbs worse off for a nk with kings revenge early in the season was wingman.
and after struggling in the heavy behind ring the boss and breedsbreeze lto...i hope this has been his long term target.
@90s+ if he made it in,could be this yrs heathcote...



;\

trev w 09 Feb 15:38
i shall now be referred to as king of the tgt.
:^0

:^0