2010 Handicaps [1m5f - 2m5f]

Me2 25 Apr 15:28
my new template for the flat races (8-10f sire, G1 1m4f damsire),

For flat, read Turf

Nah, you can have all the luck this time Phoenix, I've only got minimal involvement in this one, and don't mind losing.

Just including the Pattern races for interest, as they're not h'caps.

RACE 26B

4.05 Navan

Vintage Crop Stakes
1m5f GOOD

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage Points
48 Roses For The Lady
32 End Of The Affair
26 Merchant Of Dubai
22 Zaralabad
22 Mid Mon Lady
20 Grace O'Malley
8 Celtic Soprano

Dam's GSV [2005]
75.81 Roses For The Lady
75.68 End Of The Affair
73.65 Merchant Of Dubai
73.45 Mid Mon Lady
71.98 Grace O'Malley
69.86 Zaralabad
62.73 Celtic Soprano


MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.15 Grace O'Malley
0.04 Roses For The Lady
0.23 Mid Mon Lady
0.50 Zaralabad
0.59 End Of The Affair
0.62 Merchant Of Dubai
1.25 Celtic Soprano

CMP index
0.67 Merchant Of Dubai
0.74 End Of The Affair
0.77 Mid Mon Lady
0.77 Celtic Soprano
0.83 Roses For The Lady
1.04 Grace O'Malley
1.25 Zaralabad

RP Sire Index
Roses For The Lady - Sadler's Wells 11.3 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
Grace O'Malley - Refuse To Bend 8.9 / Darshaan 11.3
Zaralabad - Fantastic Light 10.7 / Last Tycoon 9.5
Celtic Soprano - Celtic Swing 9.1 / Dr Devious 10.6
End Of The Affair - Indian Ridge 7.7 / Sadler's Wells 11.3
Merchant Of Dubai - Dubai Destination 9.8 / Green Desert 7.9
Mid Mon Lady - Danetime 6.7 / Green Desert 7.9

NO BET.

I hope Pandorama doesn't blame me for poor jockeyship.

RACE 26A result


Bath 15:50
1st 4.Sherman Mccoy 4.60 10/3
2nd 1.Cool Strike (UAE) 3.36 2/1F
7 ran
Status: Weighed In

AW bank £160.44
Turf bank £78.77

[each started with £100]


I'll get on with the next races straightaway, as the rest of today's races, Lansdown excepting, don't hold any interest for me.

RACE 26B result

Betfair Industry
Navan 16:05
1st 7.Roses For The Lady (IRE) 2.70 6/4F
2nd 2.Merchant Of Dubai 3.49 15/8
7 ran
Status: Result

As mentioned elsewhere, Merchant Of Dubai has a Chester Cup entry.

RACE 26C

Sagaro Stakes
2m
Ascot

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage Points
36 Mojave Moon
26 Electrolyser
24 Yes Mr President
22 Akmal
22 Montaff
22 Balkan Knight
18 Aajel
16 Askar Tau
16 Oasis Knight
14 Illustrious Blue


Dam's GSV [2005]
76.93 Electrolyser
76.73 Yes Mr President
72.40 Montaff
70.49 Mojave Moon
70.22 Aajel
69.76 Balkan Knight
68.86 Akmal
68.84 Illustrious Blue
66.54 Askar Tau
61.89 Oasis Knight

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage Centre of Distribution
-0.17 Yes Mr President
-0.03 Mojave Moon
0.14 Balkan Knight
0.14 Illustrious Blue
0.23 Electrolyser
0.31 Oasis Knight
0.33 Askar Tau
0.41 Montaff
0.73 Akmal
1.06 Aajel
1.25 Classic Contours

CMP index
0.46 Askar Tau
0.65 Yes Mr President
0.68 Oasis Knight
0.73 Mojave Moon
0.81 Montaff
0.85 Illustrious Blue
0.92 Electrolyser
1.05 Aajel
1.29 Balkan Knight
1.50 Akmal

RP Sire index
Askar Tau - Montjeu 11.6 / Acatenango 11.2
Electrolyser - Daylami 11.4 / Sadler's Wells 11.3
Yes Mr President - Montjeu 11.6 / Caerleon 10.7
Montaff - Montjeu 11.6 / Gulch 9.1
Mojave Moon - Singspiel 10.6 / Kris 9.9
Balkan Knight - Selkirk 8.9 / Mtoto 11.5
Oasis Knight - Oasis Dream 7.2 / Generous 11.9
Aajel - Aljabr 9.5 / Arazi 9.6
Akmal - Selkirk 8.9 / Swain 9.3
Illustrious Blue - Dansili 9.1 / Efisio 7.8


Just indulging my Anal Retentive tendency, before posting the Musselburgh race.

Gosh, anal ain't a banned word, as in TT, you anal**

Gosh, r e t a r d is a banned word.

RACE 27

Friday 30 April 2010

4.35 Musselburgh
1m6f
GOOD
Class 5 (0-70)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage Points
28 Oddsmaker
24 Los Nadis
22 Park's Prodigy
22 Silent Lucidity
22 Petella
20 Smarties Party
12 Classic Contours
8 Kyber

Dam's GSV [2005]
78.48 Silent Lucidity
71.35 Los Nadis
70.70 Kyber
66.08 Oddsmaker
65.71 Park's Prodigy
65.52 Classic Contours
60.56 Petella
50.62 Smarties Party

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage Centre Of Distribution
-0.29 Los Nadis
-0.18 Oddsmaker
-0.14 Petella
0.10 Smarties Party
0.23 Park's Prodigy
0.38 Kyber
0.68 Silent Lucidity
1.25 Classic Contours

Conduit Mare Profile index
0.62 Los Nadis
0.75 Oddsmaker
0.79 Kyber
0.80 Park's Prodigy
0.91 Smarties Party
1.05 Petella
1.15 Silent Lucidity
1.23 Classic Contours

Racing Post Sire Index
Smarties Party - Tamure 13.2 / The Parson 14.2
Petella - Tamure 13.2 / Petoski 10.3
Los Nadis - Hernando 12.3 / Desert King 10.2
Oddsmaker - Barathea 9.5 / Ela Mana Mou 12.3
Classic Contours - Najran 12.1 / Tabasco Cat 9.5
Park's Prodigy - Desert Prince 9.2 / Barathea 9.5
Kyber - First Trump 8.6 / Groom Dancer 10.0
Silent Lucidity - Ashkalani 8.6 / El Gran Senor 8.9


Some books arrived yesterday. One of them was Well-Handicapped Horses by Jon Gubby. Haven't read it yet, but I've flicked through it. The Chester Cup favourite Bernie The Bolt is one of the case studies. I'll try reading the book tomorrow evening, instead of drinking too much and placing silly bets on Australian races. Gubby uses the RP indices to help indicate horses that will improve for stepping up in distance. I suppose that is what we've been trying to do here, without too much success on the turf so far. I'll try and incorporate some of his ideas over the course of the weekend.


There isn't an exciting unexposed horse in this race, for sure.

Silent Lucidity has had 6 runs for 1 win. However, it has has two undistinguished runs over this distance.

Petella has had 10 runs, 2 over 2m including once when coming 2nd, but none over 1m6f. Is having her seasonal debut, and maybe needs further.

Smarties Party has had 3 runs on the Turf, and 4 on the AW, and 5 of these runs have been over today's trip. Smarties Party came 2nd on the AW to both Broughton's Point and Bold Adventure, who have both won since. He also came 2nd to Dan Buoy in the JF, who went on to be 2nd in the PM. Maybe this horse's form has been under rated a little?

Oddsmaker has been dropped 3 lbs since coming 2nd in a Seller here 3 weeks ago. Oddsmaker was 5/4 and beaten by a 16/1 shot, 14 lbs inferior. However, the pair were 8 lengths clear, and his conqueror has since won a h'cap off a 7 lb higher mark.

Park's Prodigy went up 10 lbs for winning at Catterick in the Soft last Autumn. Came 2nd last week, in a good time, but was beaten 4 lengths. Am taking a view to ignore this, as there was a fast pace set by Avoir Choisi.

£6 Oddsmaker, £3 Smarties Party, £1 Petella, just in case.

Whoops. I forgot the minimum stake is £2. I'll take it off Oddsmaker, as I have a sneaking feeling for Smarties Party.

£5 Oddsmaker, £3 Smarties Party, £2 Petella.

. He also came 2nd to Dan Buoy in the JF

Just realised I wrote that. Didn't come 2nd, came 5th. Also, he's a she! Anyway, I willing to write that race off. Was over further.

ttt

If I was picking one out it would be Kyber, Jim Goldie can get them ready in April and he's put a good jockey up which we don't see very often with this horse.

Interesting little race. Classic Contours would be the one for me. This represents his easiest task in a while, and should do better than last time when making his seasonal debut and racing freely enough. Travelled pretty well there and, as a 4-year-old, is open to a bit more improvement, which can't be said of the others. Better ground and right-handed should suit. Good luck.

4 April 2010

"Because of the bad weather, my horses generally aren't as far forward as usual," said Goldie.

Okay, we're nearly in May . . .

I'd like to see money for Kyber before I back it. Drifting like a barge today. Had a stake saver on Oddsmaker at 7.0, which looks too big. Solid money for Los Nadis but not one for me.

Good luck guys :)

When's the next AW race on this thread? :(

Thought Oddsmaker deserved to win there.

RACE 27 result

Musselburgh 16:35
1st 4.Park's Prodigy 4.40 3/1
2nd 2.Oddsmaker (IRE) 4.55 7/2
3rd 8.Petella 27.93 20/1
8 ran
Status: Weighed In


Steep learning curve with these stayers - downwards. :D

AW bank £160.44
Turf bank £68.77

RACE 28

Saturday 1 May 2010
2.15 Goodwood
1m6f GOOD
Class 4 (0-85)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage Points
32 Curacao
30 Uncle Eli
30 Just Rob
30 Mykingdomforahorse
28 Admirable Duque
28 Red Hot Desert
24 Rowan Tiger
22 Devil To Pay
22 Relative Strength
16 Gargano
14 Highland Legacy
12 Morar
6 Rock'N'Roller

Dam's GSV [2005]
81.28 Admirable Duque
76.98 Mykingdomforahorse
75.36 Just Rob
73.36 Curacao
69.28 Rowan Tiger
69.14 Devil To Pay
65.43 Red Hot Desert
61.89 Highland Legacy
61.33 Uncle Eli
61.10 Rock'N'Roller
59.58 Relative Strength
58.59 Gargano
57.76 Morar

Admirable Duque's dam won the Prix Imprudence.

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage Centre Of Distribution
0.00 Gargano
0.03 Curacao
0.08 Morar
0.14 Relative Strength
0.17 Rowan Tiger
0.20 Uncle Eli
0.33 Mykingdomforahorse
0.36 Devil To Pay
0.40 Just Rob
0.50 Rock'N'Roller
0.54 Red Hot Desert
0.61 Admirable Duque
0.71 Highland Legacy

Conduit Mare Profile index
0.28 Uncle Eli
0.44 Rowan Tiger
0.45 Gargano
0.69 Just Rob
0.70 Devil To Pay
0.73 Relative Strength
0.83 Curacao
0.90 Red Hot Desert
0.95 Highland Legacy
1.00 Mykingdomforahorse
1.14 Rock'N'Roller
1.17 Admirable Duque
1.21 Morar


Racing Post Sire Index
Rock'N'Roller - Sagacity 14.5 / Dancehall 10.0
Morar - Kalanisi 11.9 / Electric 11.6
Mykingdomforahorse - Fantastic Light 10.7 / Caerleon 10.7
Highland Legacy - Selkirk 8.9 / Generous 11.9
Curacao - Sakhee 9.5 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
Just Rob - Robellino 10.2 / Alzao 10.3
Rowan Tiger - Tiger Hill 11.2 / Zilzal 8.4
Gargano - Galileo 11.2 / Sallust 7.8
Relative Strength - Kris Kin 11.0 / Mujtahid 7.7
Devil To Pay - Red Ransom 8.9 / Marju 9.2
Uncle Eli - Raintrap 10.4 / Sicyos 7.3
Admirable Duque - Selkirk 8.9 / Nureyev 8.1
Red Hot Desert - Green Desert 7.9 / Polar Falcon 8.5


Only one of these hasn't run this year. Unfortunately, that is the one that interests me. Mykingdomforahorse has some finishing speed that will always make him dangerous in this class. I intend to back him every time he runs this season. He is only 3 lbs higher than his last winning mark.

I'll have another look at the race later, primarily at Rowan Tiger's credentials.

I don't understand why Devil To Pay is favourite.

Just Bob has run once at 14f on the AW, but the furthest on turf is 11f. However, there is no reason why he should improve for the step up in trip.

Morar should improve on her AW debut, but there is no reason to back her.

Rock'N'Roller is weighted to win, but has run badly over hurdles.

Not a full summary of the contenders, just the few notes I made.


The racing world was rocked to the core yesterday, when one of life's certainties didn't happen. Oddsmaker didn't lead from the stalls. I'm going to keep the stakes up, as I'm sure that most of you will roll on the floor laughing if I trainwreck the turf bank down to zero, and so will I, so

£4 win Mykingdomforahorse

I don't understand why Devil To Pay is favourite.

Okay, I've just watched his race at Newbury, and now understand. Sill sticking with bet though.

Curacao would be my pick, should beat the fav, good race though. Balding's is also interesting as is Swinburn's first time on turf.

Interesting race at Goodwood, for sure. The favourite travelled like a dream last time, but I think that may have been a case of Hughes looking like he had more in the tank than he actually did. He was fit that day so probably isn't going to improve a lot.

Several of these could have more to come this year. I'm willing to chance the progressive-looking Rowan Tiger on the turf. Can forgive all of his turf efforts to date, and his all-weather form is very solid. Keen when returning from a break last time and looks a nice big horse, so sure to strip fitter for the race. Runs like a stayer, has the ability to travel well and definitely worth a bet at double-figures IMO.

Still doing the last at Doncaster.

Haven't started the Donny race yet . . .

RACE 28 result

Starting Prices
Betfair Industry
Goodwood 14:15
1st 2.Just Rob 29.23 20/1
2nd 4.Curacao 6.20 9/2
3rd 5.Devil To Pay 3.20 2/1F
11 ran NR 1, 3
Status: Result


Well, I did the simple bit of identifying Just Rob as a horse attempting the trip on turf for the first time. Now need to do the vastly more difficult task of idebntifying why these horses might win.

Mykingdomforahorse traded as short as 6/4, without ever getting within 3-4 lengths of the lead. Looks like a good horse to back, and then lay in running.

RACE 29

8.20 Doncaster
1m 6f 132 y

Gd to Fm, Gd in places
Class 4 (0-85)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
38 Sri Kuantan
32 Lady Hestia
22 Royal Trooper
20 Maraased
18 Chocolate Caramel
18 Twist Again
18 Kimberley Downs
12 Veloso

Dam's GSV
77.61 Sri Kuantan
75.19 Royal Trooper
70.22 Lady Hestia
69.66 Maraased
69.54 Kimberley Downs
67.87 Chocolate Caramel
67.53 Twist Again
67.49 Veloso

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
0.18 Sri Kuantan
0.20 Maraased
0.22 Twist Again
0.32 Royal Trooper
0.42 Veloso
0.50 Chocolate Caramel
0.78 Kimberley Downs
0.81 Lady Hestia

CMP index
0.64 Chocolate Caramel
0.67 Veloso
0.77 Royal Trooper
0.81 Twist Again
0.83 Sri Kuantan
1.05 Maraased
1.09 Lady Hestia
1.11 Kimberley Downs

RP Sire Index
Chocolate Caramel - Storm Creek 12.8 / Baynoun -
Veloso - Kaldounevees 11.5 / Exit To Nowhere 10.1
Maraased - Alhaarth 10.2 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
Royal Trooper - Hawk Wing 9.0 / Sadler's Wells 11.3
Sri Kuantan - Spinning World 9.1 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
Kimberley Downs - Giant's Causeway 9.5 / Vigors 10.0
Twist Again - Sakhee 9.5 / Marju 9.2
Lady Hestia - Belong To Me 8.0 / Arazi 9.6


A couple of friends of the thread running here - Veloso & Chocolate Caramel. However, pought to be looking for horses unexposed at the distance. A few cans of Stella will help with that project. With only 8 runners, I know I ought to be compiling a Speed Map. I'll learn how to do that tomorrow.

It's an interesting one. Don't fancy the top horse, Kimberley Downs. I don't think she's a stayer and won a 2m race at Ascot last year by outsprinting some plodders. She didn't show a thing on her debut for this yard.

Fallon's come up here for one ride, that's on Twist Again. He's got the right profile, but Paul Howling hasn't had a winner since February - that's SIXTY runners. Have to swerve that one given this stat, particularly given that he's going to be short.

Chocolate Caramel bombed last time out and Sri Kuantan looks to have totally lost his way.

Royal Trooper should run his race, but that was a pretty awful affair he ran in last time out. Lady Hestia is solid but the price is uninspiring. Never been that keen on the horse.

Perhaps Maraased? Returning from a break which is not ideal, but the booking of Spencer bodes well and he rode a winner for this yard last month. Will stay the trip fine and still unexposed on the turf. Not a nailed on good thing by any means, but one with a solid chance in an open race who could surprise.

he rode a winner for this yard last month

Was last Saturday, and was Gollings' last runner before today.

Not too keen to have a thread bet myself, but 10 is enticing.

Not too sure Chocolate Caramel should be written off just because of 1 bad run. Hasn't run on turf since July 08 though, and is 10 lbs lower now.

Bets are £4 Maraased, £2 Chocolate Caramel.

Thanks for the analysis Phoenix!

1st of May today, so it was last month technically. ;-) Let's hope for a good run.

I'm beginning to realise why I am 47 year old, and I've never been interested in punting in these kind of races.

RACE 29 result

Betfair Industry
Doncaster 20:20
1st 8.Lady Hestia (USA) 5.00 7/2
2nd 4.Twist Again (IRE) 3.29 2/1F
3rd 6.Royal Trooper (IRE) 5.47 4/1
7 ran NR 2
Status: Result


Two races tomorrow, and I'm sure liking of ground conditions will be a factor at Salisbury.

Good grief! Just noticed that Macarthur is running in a h'cap.

RACE 30

Sunday 2 May 2010

4.15 Hamilton
1m 5f 9y

GOOD, Gd to Fm in places
Class 3 (0-90)


4 of these ran in the Musselburgh Gold Cup (RACE 11), so I ought to watch that race again.

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
32 Prince Picasso
28 Valdan
26 Alcalde
22 Planetarium
22 Hawk Mountain
22 Black Jacari
18 Kimberley Downs
18 Gordonsville
18 Wicked Daze
16 Kames Park
14 Proud Times

Dam's GSV [2005]
79.84 Hawk Mountain
75.28 Valdan
75.08 Kames Park
72.85 Gordonsville
71.39 Planetarium
70.30 Prince Picasso
69.90 Wicked Daze
69.54 Kimberley Downs
69.37 Black Jacari
66.73 Alcalde
56.62 Proud Times


MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.56 Prince Picasso
-0.22 Gordonsville
-0.12 Alcalde
0.05 Hawk Mountain
0.27 Black Jacari
0.33 Wicked Daze
0.45 Planetarium
0.64 Valdan
0.75 Kames Park
0.78 Kimberley Downs
0.86 Proud Times

CMP index
0.58 Gordonsville
0.59 Black Jacari
0.62 Hawk Mountain
0.64 Planetarium
0.77 Wicked Daze
0.88 Alcalde
0.95 Valdan
0.96 Proud Times
1.00 Prince Picasso
1.00 Kames Park
1.11 Kimberley Downs

RP Sire Index
Planetarium - Fantastic Light 10.7 / Kahyasi 12.8
Gordonsville - Generous 11.9 / Kris S 11.3
Prince Picasso - Lomitas 10.8 / Shirley Heights 12.3
Alcalde - Hernando 12.3 / Nashwan 10.0
Wicked Daze - Generous 11.9 / Groom Dancer 10.0
Hawk Mountain - Halling 10.4 / Lear Fan 10.3
Kames Park - Desert Sun 9.1 / Persian Bold 10.4
Kimberley Downs - Giant's Causeway 9.5 / Vigors 10.0
Black Jacari - Black Sam Bellamy 9.9 / Danehill 9.1
Valdan - Val Royal 9.1 / Danehill 9.1
Proud Times - Proud Citizen 6.8 / Big Pistol 6.0


Have hit upon the idea of only writing comments about horses that are making their first appearance in this thread. That means I'll only have to struggle once to say something interesting about a horse. Also, any horses having their first run at 13f+ will be amongst them.


Alcalde only tried this distance once, when blew out in the Melrose at York, on 6 days comeback. I think I have a general policy of opposing Johnston horses when they're favourite, and backing them when they're not. However, this seems a sensible one to bet.

Hawk Mountain was competitive off this mark last two runs last season, and just needs to have improved a bit from 4 to 5yo.

Black Jacari hasn't run since last Summer. may have been injured, or may have been given a nice break after a Summer hurdling campaign.

Kames Park hasn't won at Hamilton, and apart from an initial victory in a 5 runner race at Musselburgh, has a poor record beyond 12f:- 137578. However, won at 14f at Wolverhampton in January. Last three wins have been with Jimmy Quinn on bard, but has the interesting Billy Cray of Dan Buoy fame on instead. Cray's record on the horse is 125. His 5 lb allowance cancels out the 5 lb raise for winning at Beverley last time.

Proud Times has run once at 11f and at 12f, and its breeding immediately puts me off.

Valdan Only run on turf beyond 12f was 21f at Goodwood! Encouraging return to turf lto, when Analysis says the race was over by the time he got daylight.

I thought Prince Picasso travelled well for most of the race lto, so I'd like to give him a go. With Alcalde, Kames Park, Valdan, Prince Picasso, and possibly Gordonsville ready to give of his best, it may be wise not to have a bet at all. Alternative strategy would be to bet whichever of them is at a nice price.

RACE 31

4.40 Salisbury

1m 6f 21y
Gd to Sft, becoming SOFT?

Class 3 (0-95)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
32 Swiss Act
30 Dayia
20 Penang Princess
18 Lethal Glaze
18 Puzzlemaster
16 Woolfall Tresure
16 Art Man
14 Highland Legacy
2 It's A Date

Dam's GSV [2005]
76.03 Swiss Act
75.89 Dayia
75.67 Woolfall Tresure
68.21 Penang Princess
67.70 Lethal Glaze
61.89 Highland Legacy
55.74 It's A Date
53.16 Art Man
50.99 Puzzlemaster


MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.44 Puzzlemaster
-0.20 Dayia
-0.20 Penang Princess
0.00 It's A Date
0.25 Swiss Act
0.44 Woolfall Tresure
0.50 Art Man
0.71 Highland Legacy
0.83 Lethal Glaze

CMP index
0.73 Swiss Act
0.85 Puzzlemaster
0.88 It's A Date
0.91 Dayia
0.95 Highland Legacy
1.00 Woolfall Tresure
1.00 Art Man
1.00 Lethal Glaze
1.11 Penang Princess

RP Sire Index
Dayia - Act One 11.6 / Caerleon 10.7
Puzzlemaster - Lomitas 10.9 / Rock Hopper 11.3
Woolfall Tresure - Daylami 11.4 / The Minstrel 9.9
Highland Legacy - Selkirk 8.9 / Generous 11.9
Swiss Act - Act One 11.6 / Machiavellian 9.2
Penang Princess - Act One 11.6 / Dolphin Street 8.8
Art Man - Dansili 9.2 / Batshoof 10.0
Lethal Glaze - Verglas 9.1 / Lion Cavern 7.8
It's A Date - Kyllachy 6.4 / Bold Arrangement 8.1


Lethal Glaze has won 3 times on Soft, but was favourite each time, and two of the victories were by a sh and a nose, and the other was in a 5 runner race.

Woolfall Treasure has won a novice hurdle on Soft, but was 1/5 favourite. 2 lbs higher than when winning this race last year. Seems to prefer a sound surface?

Swiss Act 4th in Dazinski's race.

Dayia has class and stamina, and handles easy ground, but seasonal debut.

Highland Legacy likes cut, and has had a run.

It's A Date ?

Art Man All wins have been on the AW.

Puzzlemaster is favourite. Won a Novice Hdle at Cheltenham lto. Has won a small runner race on Heavy. First run beyond 12f, and is 3 lbs lower.

Penang Princess has wandered a couple of times. Won over 2m as a 3yo, so she ought to have strengthened up and improved over the winter?

Couple of interesting ones today, although with recent results I'm far from optimistic.

Salisbury race is interesting. One of the 4-year-olds will probably win, but both Puzzlemaster and Penang Princess are priced correctly. Lethal Glaze won at 2 so probably less improvement to come from him compared with the others.

I'm taking a chance on Woolfall Treasure to repeat his win in this last year. Don't think soft ground will be a problem and he's no hurdler, so can excuse his latest run, particularly as he'd run poorly the previous time he'd worn cheekpieces. Back on the flat, blinkers back on, course and distance winner - he'll keep grinding away.

The Hamilton race is very tricky. Still looking at it.

Hamilton
Gordonsville finished well when 5th in the Dazinski race, so I'm making him my main bet. Also doing Prince Picasso and Valdan, because they are nice prices.

£4 Gordonsville, £2 Prince Picasso & Valdan.

Worry for me with Gordonsville would be stable form. 1 winner this year, I think. Hawk Mountain has never won in the grade. Alcalde is solid but hung badly when he last went right handed.

PP, Valdan and Wicked Daze were my longshot shortlist. Think PP probably fluked that Wolves win - soft lead, slow time - and isn't that well handicapped. Wicked Daze will do better on this faster going but not sure he's a true turf horse. Valdan was 4th in a good race at this track last year off a far higher mark. He bolted up last year at Thirsk off this rating and shaped with promise last time out. He'll do for me, although not a big bet as he might be a bit outclassed. We'll see. Good luck.

Popping out to the off-licence. Been chasing my tail all afternoon. Didn't realise until 15 minutes ago that whenever I was checking my profit & loss for the day it was including the £130 I lost on the Kentucky Derby, as it occurred after 23:00.

Allo, c'est moi.

Puzzlemaster is drifting. By Lomitas, like Picasso Prince.

Haven't had a proper think about the race, but I might as well post the horses I've had a bet on.

£2 Puzzlemaster, £2 Dayia.

Gosh, got the Trifecta.

Hamilton 16:15
1st 9.Prince Picasso 9.20 8/1
2nd 4.Gordonsville 5.19 7/2
3rd 11.Valdan (IRE) 18.00 14/1
10 ran NR 2
Status: Weighed In

Betfair Industry
Salisbury 16:40
1st 6.It's A Date 22.31 16/1
2nd 5.Highland Legacy 4.93 10/3F
3rd 9.Penang Princess 5.80 9/2
9 ran
Status: Result


AW bank £160.44
Turf bank £66.35

Despite the 8/1 winner, the Turf bank still leaked money over the 4 races of the weekend.

ffs, Banks Holidays. They're taking the urine. First of all there is a 1m4f 134y h'cap at Warwick which falls into my domain, unless custardcreamkid wants to claim it, and then the 2m h'cap at Chepstow has two divisions, instead of simply eliminating the horses at the bottom. Makes four races for the thread in total. And there was I thinking I could do a bit of catching up.

Going back to RACE 31, where I put a ? next to It's A Date, because I couldn't work out what to write about the horse, a similar thing happened in the Ponty Maathon:-


Fair Spin
Hasn't run for 5 months, and for nearly 2 years on the Flat. Ffs, what am I supposed to write? The RP spotlighters can always write "one to keep an eye on in the market", but I don't do that.



Both nice prices as well.

RACE 32

Monday 3 May 2010

4.05 Chepstow
2m 49y
GOOD, Gd to Sft in places??
Class 6 (0-60)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
26 Eastwell Smiles
22 Mustajed
20 Whitcombe Spirit
18 Googoobarabajagal
16 Intersky Music
14 Dansimar
14 Sweet Request
14 Hassadin
12 Mountain Forest
10 Tiffany Lady
4 Picot De Say

Dam's GSV - [2005]
77.88 Whitcombe Spirit
75.17 Mustajed
71.67 Googoobarabajagal
69.18 Eastwell Smiles
68.47 Intersky Music
66.49 Mountain Forest
66.11 Hassadin
64.72 Dansimar
63.08 Tiffany Lady
59.68 Picot De Say
52.47 Sweet Request

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.40 Tiffany Lady
0.21 Hassadin
0.21 Dansimar
0.25 Mountain Forest
0.44 Whitcombe Spirit
0.46 Eastwell Smiles
0.50 Picot De Say
0.61 Googoobarabajagal
0.64 Sweet Request
0.77 Mustajed
0.81 Intersky Music

CMP index
0.50 Mountain Forest
0.60 Tiffany Lady
0.65 Intersky Music
0.76 Whitcombe Spirit
0.85 Hassadin
1.00 Dansimar
1.00 Sweet Request
1.09 Googoobarabajagal
1.13 Mustajed
1.33 Picot De Say
1.42 Eastwell Smiles

RP Sire Index
Tiffany Lady - Generous 11.9 / Master Willie 9.6
Dansimar - Daylami 11.4 / Bering 10.1
Mountain Forest - Tiger Hill 10.9 / Konigsstuhl 10.5
Eastwell Smiles - Erhaab 10.3 / Beau Genius 10.5
Googoobarabajagal - Almutawakel 9.3 / Unfuwain 10.7
Hassadin - Reset 8.3 / Croco Rouge 11.4
Mustajed - Alhaarth 10.2 / Green Desert 7.9
Whitcombe Spirit - Diktat 8.2 / Danehill 9.1
Intersky Music - Victory Gallop 7.4 / Thunder Gulch 9.6
Picot De Say - Largesse 7.9 / Superlative 8.9
Sweet Request - Best Of The Bests 8.0 / Claude Monet 7.3


Mustajed - only tried this trip once before, on Heavy.
Dansimar - never been beaten by more than 6 l in 4 attempts at 2m+ (turf)
WS - maiden
ES - Another maiden
Moountain Forest - hattrick seeking. Gone up 6 lbs each time. Jimmy Quinn keeps the ride.
Picot De Say - First attempt beyond 13f on Turf. Is only 3 lbs higher than when winning here, 12f, Heavy, last Summer
Intersky Music - This could be the one if Jonjo is wanting his missus to put out tonight
Sweet Request - Doesn't stay, don't it?
Googoobarabajagal - Fit from Hurdling, where getting placed. Is now a 4yo, so good chance of a place or win.
Hassadin - Won a Selling Hurdle latest. Anyone au fait with Channel islands form? Came 3rd at Les Landes last Summer.
Tiffany Lady - First run on Turf, and first run beyond 12f. Fairly abysmal form.

RACE 33

4.30 Kempton
2m AW

Class 5 (0-75)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
32 Annie The Doc
24 Coda Agency
24 Babilu
18 Haldibari
16 Pearl
16 Mr Plod
12 Soundbyte

Dam's GSV [2005]
79.30 Annie The Doc
73.30 Haldibari
70.48 Pearl
70.05 Coda Agency
68.53 Mr Plod
59.98 Soundbyte
52.69 Babilu


MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.06 Haldibari
0.16 Annie The Doc
0.31 Mr Plod
0.42 Soundbyte
0.56 Pearl
0.58 Coda Agency
0.67 Babilu

CMP index
0.56 Mr Plod
0.62 Haldibari
0.63 Coda Agency
0.84 Annie The Doc
0.96 Pearl
1.32 Babilu
1.33 Soundbyte

RP Sire Index
Haldibari - Kahyasi 12.8 / Darshaan 11.7
Pearl - Daylami 11.4 / Salse 10.4
Babilu - Lomitas 10.9 / Persian Bold 10.4
Annie The Doc - Nayef 11.0 / Chief's Crown 10.1
Mr Plod - Silver Patriarch 10.7 / Cadeaux Genereux 7.8
Soundbyte - Beat All 8.8 / Celtic Swing 9.1
Coda Agency - Agnes World 8.0 / Al Hareb 9.1


Soundbyte - gone up 3 lb for winning CD on first attempt at trip.
Coda Agency - horse is on same mark as when winning CD Feb. H'capper must think he knows this horse, as it has run 11 times CD. Horse also won off this mark last June, so I don't really understand what the H'capper is playing at. Those were both 14 runner affairs with with a good Topspeed figure, so it looks like the horse needs a strong pace, and gets outpaced late on in slow run races.
Mr Plod - first attempt at trip. 5 lbs higher than when winning 5 weeks ago.
Babilu - Only had 2 AW runs. Has won at 2m in Soft on Turf. Very well h'capped based on 2nd on AW debut in 2008. Has been hurdling, which seems a waste of time to me, but at least we know the mare is fit.
Annie The Doc - previous AW attempt was 8f as a 2yo. Has been hurdling, but not very well. Very well treated on Flat and AW form.
Haldibari - Runner-Up in the Ponty marathon last year. Only one previous attempt on the AW, over 12f last year.
Pearl - 3lb oh, and is effectively 5 lb higher than when nearly beating Bold Adventure lto. (Has a 7 lb apprentice aboard to compensate today.) In good form, having won a Hdle race in march. Is still well h'capped, compared with 30 months ago.

Soundbyte - track leaders
Coda Agency - tracks leaders
Mr Plod - Held up
Babilu - Held up
Annie The Doc - tracks leaders
Haldibari - Prominent / leads
Pearl - various

Looks like Haldibari will lead, at his own slow speed. This won't suit Coda Agency. Neither of these two will win. Pearl is the fly in the ointment, as she has been ridden several different ways, and has a 7lb claimer on board today. Several well-treated horses in the race, and difficult to work out which one will win.

RACE 34

4.35 Chepstow
2m 49y
GOOD, Gd to Sft in places


**les comes from a non-Thoroughbred or unregistered background.

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
34 Ocean Bright
26 Sangfroid
24 Act Three
22 Any Given Moment
22 Telling Stories
22 Zaffeu
12 Salontyre
10 Robbmaa
8**les


Dam's GSV - [2005]
80.10 Any Given Moment
73.94 Ocean Bright
71.21 Zaffeu
67.94 Telling Stories
67.31 Act Three
65.47 Sangfroid
59.60 Salontyre
54.35 Robbmaa
35.73**les


MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-1.00**les
-0.33 Act Three
0.03 Ocean Bright
0.23 Sangfroid
0.36 Telling Stories
0.50 Robbmaa
0.75 Salontyre
0.86 Any Given Moment
1.05 Zaffeu

CMP index
0.60 Act Three
0.64 Telling Stories
0.68 Ocean Bright
0.73**les
0.74 Robbmaa
0.92 Any Given Moment
0.96 Zaffeu
1.06 Salontyre
1.20 Sangfroid

RP Sire Index
**les - Karinga Bay 12.6 / Infantry 10.3
Sangfroid - With Approval 9.8 / Hernando 12.3
Any Given Moment - Alhaarth 10.2 / Alleged 11.6
Ocean Bright - Cozzene 10.2 / Sadler's Wells 11.3
Robbmaa - Cape Cross 8.7 / Be My Native 11.7
Zaffeu - Zafonic 8.6 / Trempolino 11.7
Act Three - Beat Hollow 9.6 / Robellino 10.2
Telling Stories - Lucky Story 8.3 / Roanoke 10.3
Salontyre - Pentire 9.9 / Tirol 8.6


Comments will have to be missed, as racing is just about to start.


I was going to push the 1m4f 134y race at Warwick onto custardcream's side of the desk whilst he wasn't looking, but it only has six runners, and they are 3yos, so it should be interesting for the future. Race isn't until 5.40, so plenty of time to do it.

Okay, betting boots. Have learnt best not to bet on Bank Holidays, but never mind . . .

RACE 32 - £10 Mountain Forest (close eyes).

RACE 33 - Difficult, as any of 5 could win. Just £2 win each on the mares Babilu and Annie The Doc, as they are the ones at big prices. Don't want to get too involved with this one.

RACE 34 - NO BET. Haven't actually looked at it yet, and any bet I'm going to have is off-thread.

Excellent work yesterday, me2 - well done.

Trio of interesting races today. I am keen on Googoobarabajagal, whose two runs left-handed last season produced good efforts. Very promising return to action over hurdles last time and probably has untapped potential as a stayer, with Catlin just the man to get the job done. Can't have the favourite at the price for obvious reasons.

Conditions look perfect for Soundbyte at Kempton. Mr Plod has two ways of running. I looked at Pearl, but she looked as slow as a boat to me last time and could well be overmatched here.

Sangfroid is clearly interesting in the second handicap at Chepstow, but priced accordingly for me. Watched Salontyre's run last time; didn't look a stayer to me there. Act Three is definitely not a two miler. Any Given Day looks like he is; he's bred for it and he runs as though he needs a trip. This soft ground should bring out more improvement too. The market support for him on several starts to date suggest he is thought better than his mark, and I think he can start proving that today.

Good luck.

I was keen to have a big bet on Soundbyte as well, but I was scared of Mr Plod, who is stepping up in trip and had Frankie on board, which is why I chickened out and have just had small bets on the big-priced on instead. Maybe not logic to some, but its the way my brain works.


After the Chepstow result, it looks like the Turf bank will shortly have to give the AW a BJ to get some more funds. Hadn't been paying too much attention, so I didn't realise PDS was such a big price - I thought it was about 5/1.

RACE 32 result

Betfair Industry
Chepstow 16:05
1st 6.Picot de Say 12.20 8/1
2nd 1.Mustajed 4.78 7/2
3rd 10.Hassadin 14.35 10/1
10 ran NR 2
Status: Result

Good luck.

Have been having a losing day, as I've been betting when I shouldn't just for action.

Did a draw analysis at Kempton (Jubilee H'cap), using Raceform Interactive, 1m, 14 runners. Put £10 on draws 11 & 12. Didn't find out until the after the race that I had previously put £10 on betfair SP same race on draws 6 & 11. Draw 11 won, accidentally had £20 on. :D People can put this on the aftertiming thread, but I can produce the statistics to support both of those bets. Turned a losing day into a winning day!

Gosh, this Pace Analysis is difficult. Haldibari didn't make the running, which i thought would have been sense for him to do. Coda Agency did it, slowly, slowed again, and then kicked. Did he kick earlier than other frontrunners would do??? Didn't watch the race, and normally don't, so input would be appreciated. Bibilu traded very short . . .

Well done, Phoenix.

RACE 33 result

Kempton 16:30
1st 2.Coda Agency 6.75 9/2
2nd 4.Babilu 27.47 16/1
7 ran
Status: Result


RACE 34 result

Betfair Industry
Chepstow 16:35
1st 6.Any Given Moment (IRE) 3.35 9/4
2nd 4.Sangfroid 2.29 6/5F
3rd 5.Salontyre (GER) 11.82 15/2
9 ran NR 2
Status: Result

RACE 34

5.40 Warwick
SOFT
1m4f 134y
3yo Class 5 (0-70)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
36 Queen Of Wands
28 Gordon Flash
24 Head Hunted
22 Sounds Of Thunder
18 Blinka Me
14 Rose Alba

Dam's GSV - [2005]
76.35 Rose Alba
74.56 Sounds Of Thunder
74.43 Queen Of Wands
74.03 Head Hunted
71.25 Blinka Me
68.16 Gordon Flash

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.18 Sounds Of Thunder
-0.14 Gordon Flash
0.19 Queen Of Wands
0.33 Blinka Me
0.57 Rose Alba
0.58 Head Hunted

CMP index
0.36 Blinka Me
0.50 Head Hunted
0.75 Queen Of Wands
0.78 Sounds Of Thunder
1.09 Gordon Flash
1.18 Rose Alba

RP Sire Index
Gordon Flash - Alhaarth 10.2 / In The Wings 11.7
Sounds Of Thunder - Tobougg [b] 9.1 / Darshaan 11.7
Blinka Me - Tiger Hill [b] 11.2 / Diesis 9.5
Queen Of Wands - Sakhee [b] 9.5 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
Rose Alba - Verglas [b] 9.1 / Green Dancer 11.2
Head Hunted - Dubai Destination [b] 9.8 / Kris [b] 9.9


Rose Alba is God's (Terry Norman) Nap of the day. Needs 1m4f and Soft ground, apparently.

Apparently, if a horse needs 1m4f and Soft, it might just mean that it is no good and slow.

RACE 35 result


Warwick 17:40
1st 6.Blinka Me 12.31 17/2
2nd 3.Gordon Flash 5.24 4/1
6 ran
Status: Weighed In


AW bank £160.44
Turf bank £52.35

RACE 36

Tuesday 4 May 2010

5.00 Bath
2m1f 34y
GOOD
Class 4 (0-85)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
34 Calculating
22 Benedict Spirit
22 Wightgold
22 Baddam
20 Callisto Moon
20 Sally Forth
16 Rare Ruby

Dam's GSV - [2005]
80.37 Benedict Spirit
74.30 Calculating
70.24 Callisto Moon
66.71 Baddam
64.67 Wightgold
62.42 Rare Ruby
62.37 Sally Forth


MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage CD
-0.32 Baddam
0.06 Rare Ruby
0.32 Wightgold
0.41 Benedict Spirit
0.60 Callisto Moon
0.60 Sally Forth
0.76 Calculating

CMP index
0.67 Rare Ruby
0.67 Sally Forth
0.71 Benedict Spirit
0.84 Baddam
0.84 Callisto Moon
1.00 Calculating
1.05 Wightgold

Racing Post sire index
Callisto Moon - Mujahid 8.4 / Kahyasi 12.8
Wightgold - Golden Snake 11.5 / Main Reef 9.7
Baddam - Mujahid 8.4 / Ela Mana Mou 12.3
Sally Forth - Dubai Destination 9.9 / Doyoun 10.3
Rare Ruby - Dilshaan 10.1 / Gorytus 9.8
Calculating - Machiavellian 9.2 / El Prado 10.1
Benedict Spirit - Invincible Spirit 7.6 / Caerleon 10.7


Just rushing through tomorrow's two races, so that we can get to the Chester Cup, so there's no commentary.

Just remembered that one of those races was at Kempton.

Corrected bank totals:-

AW bank £156.44
Turf bank £56.35

RACE 37

7.30 Catterick
1m7f 177y
GD to FM
Class 6 (0-60)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
46 Front Rank
44 Daltaban
28 Drop The Hammer
24 They All Laughed
24 Harcas
22 Born To Perform
22 Park's Prodigy
20 Luna Landing
20 Sendali
18 Nayessence
14 Amir Pasha
12 Royal Flynn
10 Rare Coincidence
10 Weetfromthechaff
8 Obara D'Avril

Dam's GSV - [2005]
79.02 Nayessence
75.17 Harcas
74.11 Royal Flynn
72.67 Front Rank
71.87 Drop The Hammer
70.24 Luna Landing
69.15 Daltaban
68.33 They All Laughed
66.14 Rare Coincidence
65.71 Park's Prodigy
65.70 Weetfromthechaff
65.16 Amir Pasha
64.53 Sendali
64.15 Born To Perform
55.83 Obara D'Avril


MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.07 Drop The Hammer
0.00 Royal Flynn
0.02 Front Rank
0.02 Daltaban
0.23 Park's Prodigy
0.25 Obara D'Avril
0.30 Sendali
0.32 Born To Perform
0.36 Amir Pasha
0.40 Rare Coincidence
0.40 Weetfromthechaff
0.67 Nayessence
0.88 Harcas
0.95 Luna Landing
0.96 They All Laughed

CMP index
0.46 Obara D'Avril
0.68 Rare Coincidence
0.74 Born To Perform
0.76 Luna Landing
0.77 Drop The Hammer
0.80 Park's Prodigy
0.82 Daltaban
0.83 Amir Pasha
0.86 Front Rank
0.89 They All Laughed
0.90 Sendali
1.00 Nayessence
1.05 Weetfromthechaff
1.06 Royal Flynn
1.16 Harcas

RP Sire Index
Sendali - Daliapour 16.1 / Pink -
Obara D'Avril - April Night - / Olmeto -
Born To Perform - Theatrical 11.0 / Hansel 11.6
Front Rank - Sadler's Wells 11.3 / Alzao 10.3
Daltaban - Rainbow Quest 11.1 / Doyoun 10.3
Amir Pasha - Halling 10.4 / Lomond 10.1
Nayessence - Nayef 10.9 / Rahy 9.4
Luna Landing - Allied Forces 7.2 / Kahyasi 12.8
Drop The Hammer - Lucky Story 8.3 / In The Wings 11.7
Royal Flynn - Royal Applause 7.7 / Darshaan 11.7
Weetfromthechaff - Weet-A-Minute 10.8 / Common Grounds 8.0
Harcas - Priolo 10.9 / Green Desert 7.9
Park's Prodigy - Desert Prince 9.2 / Barathea 9.5
They All Laughed - Zafonic 8.6 / Royal Academy 8.5
Rare Coincidence - Atraf 7.7 / Lead On Time 7.8


Four of these horses ran in the race that Sendali won and Born To Perform was second in.

Right, we're back with the new forum, and hopefully some better results from myself.

At Goodwood, I like Swordsman and On Terms.  Both come here on the back of wins and should be shorter IMO, compared to the favourite anyway.  Provided it doesn't rain, both should go well.  Good luck.

Just spent the last hour trying to get my new computer online.  Problem with both of the USB wireless adapters I've tried installing is that afterwards, when I insert the dongle, the new hardware detected wizard doesn't pop up.  Tried uninstalling Norton, as I thought it might be pissarsing about with firewalls.  Anyway, I saved the posts from the past couple of days, and will append them.  Haven't done any work on the Goodwood race.  Stressed out, and want a lie down.

Not betting but went through them all and favourite looks to be justified, Gasalee and Commemoration Day were interesting ones.

Allo, c'est moi, from my other computer on the other side of the bed.  I am a lot happier bunny now.  Thought I had wasted £700 on a computer that I can't connect to the Internet.  I'll have a kip for a couple of hours now, and then do some work on getting this thread back up to date. 

Rather underwhelmed.  Thought we were getting a brand new forum, rather than them just changing platforms.

Damn, saw some smilies at the bottom, and when I moved towards them, they disappeared.

Jamaican Flight?

Good call Phoenix, Broughtons one for notebook I think.

Cheers Ben.  Don't think yours was trying particularly hard there.

Couple of races today.  There's a 3-year-old handicap at Nottingham, which was won by Darley Sun last year, but this looks a poor renewal.  Predictably given the stage of the season, they're all unproven at the trip and I'm not sure many of them will get it.  Rosewood Lad should do, based on his last run, so will take a small chance on him at 42 on here, given the others look uninspiring.

Jackday should win at Ripon if the ground stays fast, which surely won't suit Unawatuna.

Good luck.

Done both of the Chester Cup reserves in the Ascot race, as they ought to be fully fit.

I've backed Bell Island here at Warwick.  Think he'll get a nice sit, take it up 1.5f out and hopefully go on and win.  Good luck.

Ha! I backed Bell Island as well.  No Flat racing tomorrow, my new computer is up and running, and I've chucked 3 bags of rubbish out of my room, only one of which was Stella cans, so I really will start to get back on track on this thread.

I must confess I feel all at sea backing stayers, which is why I rely on the figures so much.  Bets are pretty much guesses.  So are the ones on my favourites - sprinters and staying chasers, but those are better-informed guesses.

Some posts from the Interregnum that I saved:-

Phoenix Rising 04 May 15:32
Races are coming thick and fast now. At Bath, even though she's pretty badly in at the weights, I'm going to take a chance on Wighthgold. Well backed and ran really well last time on her seasonal debut. She could be out of her depth and she's carrying a stone more than she ought, but she's about the only one who might improve. There are loads of races over staying trips for horses rated around 50, as she is, so interesting they are pitching her in here.

At Catterick, the ground looks to be too fast for Sendali to land the hat-trick. Born To Perform is solid but had a very hard race last time. Park's Prodigy is also solid, but I felt Oddsmaker may have beaten him with a better ride last time and he's up 6lb.

Two I like at prices are Rare Coincidence and Nayessence. Former looks to be coming to hand, down to a fair mark and conditions are ideal. Should run his race. I think the latter is definitely ahead of the handicapper. I don't think he does anything in front and was idling all the way up the straight at Wolves last time. The trip is a question mark though, but I think the double-figure price factors that in. The fact that these two are the only front-runners in the race is not lost on me and I am not too enamoured by the prospect of them cutting each others throats. As such, not quite sure what to do yet. Might lay off if it's apparent they're going too fast early on. Good luck.



Me2 04 May 15:55
Good luck to YOU, Phoenix.

Only just got home. Bought a computer and a television after work. Need to do the figures for tomorrow's races, so I'm giving today's races a miss. I'll listen to them though. Main bet(only bet) today is Bath 5.30, stalls 7 & 8 (taken a view) , and 13+. Not based on much data though, only 10 races.

Anything posted today and tomorrow morning will disappear when the new forum comes into operation supposedly Wednesday lunchtime, so I'll save whatever is posted here, and append it when the new forum is up and running.



Me2 04 May 17:17
RACE 36 result

Bath 17:00
1st 1.Callisto Moon 3.29 9/4F
2nd 6.Calculating (IRE) 11.39 8/1
6 ran NR 4
Status: Result


Hadn't looked at this race. Only realised afterwards that Callisto Moon was one of that stupid duo who went too fast and took each other on at Bath a couple of Sundays ago.



Me2 04 May 17:39
Main bet(only bet) today is Bath 5.30, stalls 7 & 8 (taken a view) , and 13+. Not based on much data though, only 10 races.

Betfair Industry
Bath 17:30
1st 12.West Leake (IRE) 29.00 16/1
2nd 10.Captain Kallis (IRE) 27.21 18/1
3rd 14.Avrilo 26.03 25/1
15 ran NR 11, 9
Status: Finished


Baked beans for supper. :(

Stalls 11, 6 & 16 , I think.

I think I'm definitely right to oppose the low draws, as they were behind after the first half furlong.



Me2 04 May 18:42
Thought the Bath sprint draw stuff might attract some interest, but maybe people want to keep quiet, so as not to destroy the prices.

RACE 38

Wednesday 5 May 2010

Chester Cup
2m 2f 147y
GOOD
Class 2

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
40 Raincoat
34 Tastahil
32 Ajaan
30 Swingkeel
28 Liszt
28 Som Tala
26 Mamlook
24 Fiulin
24 Nemo Spirit
20 La Vecchia Scuola
18 Halla San
18 Rangefinder
16 Desert Sea
16 Bernie The Bolt
16 Red Cadeaux
12 Majestic Concorde
8 Spring Jim

Dam's GSV - [2005]
80.42 Raincoat
75.86 Nemo Spirit
74.83 Halla San
73.45 Liszt
72.37 Majestic Concorde
71.75 Red Cadeaux
69.97 Som Tala
69.88 Desert Sea
68.44 Tastahil
66.48 Ajaan
66.25 Rangefinder
64.76 Swingkeel
64.14 Fiulin
61.59 Mamlook
60.07 Spring Jim
54.89 La Vecchia Scuola
49.83 Bernie The Bolt

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.25 Bernie The Bolt
-0.15 Tastahil
-0.07 Swingkeel
0.00 Liszt
0.15 Raincoat
0.17 Rangefinder
0.25 Nemo Spirit
0.38 Mamlook
0.39 Halla San
0.50 Red Cadeaux
0.50 Fiulin
0.55 La Vecchia Scuola
0.56 Ajaan
0.71 Som Tala
0.75 Desert Sea
0.88 Spring Jim
1.00 Majestic Concorde

I've already mentioned my selections on the main Chester Cup thread. Swingkeel, Desert Sea, Ajaan, with a saver on Bernie The Bolt. However, for the sake of this thread I was going to do my dubious kind of trends analysis. Would be a Dosage CD of 0.25 or less, G1 1m4f Damsire, Dam's GSV of 70+, previously won a Class 2 2m+ H'cap, and previously come placed at Chester. Doesn't fit that all, but I've decided the thread bet is £10 Raincoat. Have backed it up with an off-thread bet. Hasn't won at 2m+, and this is how he fared in the Ormonde Stakes:-
Held up in last place, not clear run from 2f out until headway over 1f out, switched left entering final furlong, gap soon closed and badly hampered, immediately eased (op 11-2 tchd 13-2 in a place)



CMP index
0.52 La Vecchia Scuola
0.53 Fiulin
0.61 Liszt
0.68 Tastahil
0.70 Rangefinder
0.71 Spring Jim
0.74 Som Tala
0.76 Majestic Concorde
0.86 Red Cadeaux
0.91 Bernie The Bolt
0.92 Nemo Spirit
0.94 Raincoat
0.96 Mamlook
1.00 Swingkeel
1.04 Ajaan
1.05 Halla San
1.20 Desert Sea

RP Sire Index
Bernie The Bolt - Milan 16.0 / Broken Hearted 10.1
Nemo Spirit - Daylami 11.4 / Sadler's Wells 11.3
Majestic Concorde - Definite Article 11.1 / Law Society 11.5
Ajaan - Machiavellian 9.2 / Hernando 12.3
Som Tala - Fantastic Light 10.7 / Alzao 10.3
Liszt - Galileo 11.2 / Spectrum 9.7
Rangefinder - Linamix 10.9 / Risen Star 10.0
Swingkeel - Singspiel 10.5 / Salse 10.4
Raincoat - Barathea 9.6 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
La Vecchia Scuola - Mull Of Kintyre 8.5 / L'Emigrant 10.4
Fiulin - Galileo 11.2 / Indian Ridge 7.7
Tastahil - Singspiel 10.5 / Shaadi 8.1
Halla San - Halling 10.4 / Green Desert 7.9
Red Cadeaux - Cadeaux Genereux 7.8 / Peintre Celebre 10.4
Mamlook - Key of Luck 9.2 / Brief Truce 8.6
Desert Sea - Desert Sun 9.1 / Gilded Time 7.9
Spring Jim - First Trump 8.6 / Dowsing 6.9



Me2 04 May 18:52
I've just seen wot I wrote on the other thread!

Raincoat
Ex Gosden/Juddmonte. 2nd to Authorized in the Dante. Unsuccessfully tried over hurdles. I doubt it stays 2 miles.


:D

And some more:-

Me2 04 May 19:09
Just had a look at the Catterick market, and I like Amir Pasha's price, so I've had a bet off-thread. Surely a horse can be forgiven for not staying in the Ponty Marathon? Respect Micky Hammond, and I like the jockey booking.



Phoenix Rising 04 May 19:16
I'd be worried about that one on fast ground, personally. Rare Coincidence is out now, so Nayessence figures to get an easy lead. Will he stay? Who knows. Worth keeping an eye on when he returns to 12f if he doesn't get home tonight, however.



Me2 04 May 19:42
RACE 37 result

Betfair Industry
Catterick 19:30
1st 11.They All Laughed 16.00 12/1
2nd 15.Drop The Hammer 42.00 33/1
3rd 5.Amir Pasha (UAE) 16.00 12/1
12 ran NR 2, 14, 10
Status: Result



Me2 04 May 20:03
RACE 39

3.30 Southwell

1m6f AW
Class 5 (0-75)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
52 Saloon
40 Bivouac
30 Snow's Ride
26 Essej
26 Three Boars
22 Mehendi
22 Mustajed
18 Dawn Storm
18 Tifoso
16 Sarah's Boy

Dam's GSV - [2005]
80.63 Saloon
75.17 Mustajed
73.48 Essej
72.45 Three Boars
71.83 Bivouac
70.05 Sarah's Boy
69.46 Mehendi
66.77 Snow's Ride
62.71 Dawn Storm
59.71 Tifoso

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.17 Snow's Ride
0.00 Mehendi
0.28 Tifoso
0.38 Saloon
0.45 Bivouac
0.63 Sarah's Boy
0.67 Dawn Storm
0.73 Three Boars
0.77 Mustajed
0.92 Essej

CMP index
0.54 Mehendi
0.56 Snow's Ride
0.62 Three Boars
0.72 Bivouac
0.75 Tifoso
0.91 Dawn Storm
0.92 Sarah's Boy
1.05 Essej
1.13 Mustajed
1.28 Saloon

I'll have a look at this race tomorrow afternoon, and as it is Southwell, I'll concentrate on those with a CMP index of 0.75 or less. [Although having said that, I haven't been keeping track of how this measure has been performing at the different tracks. I'll have a quick check first.]

Racing Post sire index
Snow's Ride - Hernando 12.3 / Formidable -
Tifoso - Priolo 10.9 / Hickman Creek -
Saloon - Sadler's Wells 11.3 / Blushing Groom 10.5
Bivouac - Jade Robbery 9.6 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
Dawn Storm - City On A Hill 7.8 / Blushing Flame 12.8
Sarah's Boy - Nayef 11.0 / Barathea 9.5
Mehendi - Indian Danehill 8.8 / Groom Dancer 10.0
Essej - Aljabr 9.5 / Mr Prospector 8.7
Three Boars - Most Welcome 8.7 / Polish Precedent 9.4
Mustajed - Alhaarth 10.2 / Green Desert 7.9

Better list the races that are missing in some form:-

Wed 5 May 2010
RACE 38 Chester Cup
RACE 39 3.30 Southwell

Thurs 6th May
RACE 40 4.45 Goodwood

Fri 7th May
RACE 41A 2.25 Nottingham
RACE 41B Ormonde Stakes G3
RACE 42 8.30 Ripon

Sat 8th May
RACE 43 2.25 Nottingham
RACE 44 4.35 Ascot
RACE 45 6.50 Warwick

I'll try and fit them in, as and when.  Will definitely want to have a look at RACE 42 - 66/1 winner.

Didn't realise that I had saved a third set of posts:-

Thu May 06, 2010 5:27 am

Postby Gerald on Thu May 06, 2010 5:27 am
Me2 05 May 15:41
RACE 38 result

Chester 14:45
1st 6.Mamlook (IRE) 8.94 7/1F
2nd 1.Tastahil (IRE) 29.74 22/1
3rd 5.Halla San 11.85 9/1
4th 3.Majestic Concorde (IRE) 18.15 14/1
17 ran
Status: Weighed In


RACE 39 result

Betfair Industry
Southwell 15:30
1st 4.Bivouac (UAE) 4.60 10/3JF
2nd 6.Mehendi (IRE) 17.69 14/1
3rd 8.Sarah's Boy 4.70 10/3JF
9 ran NR 3
Status: Finished

Eseej has now hung left 4 times in a row at Southwell.



redal2 05 May 15:53
Surely right, me2?



Me2 05 May 19:37
Erm, yes, redal. Hung right. If we had the new forum, I could use one of those blushing faces.

I thought people had given up reading this, as it ain't generating any winners recently! I'm a bit busy and also tired at the moment, and just going through the motion of doing the numbers mumbo jumbo. Hopefully, once I've got my other computer working, and Raceform Interactive working properly, I'll feel better, and put more effort into this thread.

RACE 46

Monday 10 May 2010
3.30 Wolverhampton
1m 5f 194y
Class 6 (0-65)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
42    Kickahead
26    Dancing Sword
26    Lapina
26    Spume
24    Paint The Town Red
24    Laconicos
22    Barodine
20    Brad's Luck
14    Cozy Tiger
14    Zalkani
14    Dazzling Begum
10    Resplendent Ace
6    Carter

Dam's GSV [2005]
75.42    Kickahead
72.82    Paint The Town Red
72.19    Lapina
71.83    Dancing Sword
68.97    Resplendent Ace
68.35    Spume
68.15    Carter
66.21    Cozy Tiger
63.67    Zalkani
61.63    Barodine
60.62    Laconicos
60.48    Dazzling Begum
58.17    Brad's Luck

Zalkani is descended in the female line from Petite Etoile, which makes him a relative of some sort to Zarkava.  Second cousin once removed, or somefink - was never taught the terminology when at school.

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage Centre Of Distribution
0.35    Dancing Sword
0.36    Cozy Tiger
0.46    Paint The Town Red
0.46    Spume
0.46    Laconicos
0.50    Carter
0.50    Brad's Luck
0.57    Kickahead
0.60    Resplendent Ace
0.64    Dazzling Begum
0.68    Barodine
0.69    Lapina
1.07    Zalkani

Conduit Mare Profile index
0.50    Brad's Luck
0.71    Laconicos
0.82    Carter
0.90    Dazzling Begum
0.94    Lapina
1.00    Dancing Sword
1.00    Barodine
1.00    Zalkani
1.05    Kickahead
1.13    Spume
1.17    Paint The Town Red
1.19    Resplendent Ace
1.22    Cozy Tiger

Racing Post Sire Index
Zalkani    -    Cadeaux Genereux        7.8        /    Shardari        12.5   
Dancing Sword    -    Groom Dancer        10.0        /    Kris        9.9   
Cozy Tiger    -    Hold That Tiger        9.4        /    Cozzene        10.2   
Carter    -    Reset        8.3        /    Acatenango        11.2   
Resplendent Ace    -    Trans Island        8.3        /    Persian Bold        10.4   
Spume    -    Alhaarth        10.2        /    Royal Academy        8.5   
Paint The Town Red    -    Mujahid        8.5        /    With Approval        9.8   
Dazzling Begum    -    Okawango        11.7        /    Prince Sabo        6.6   
Kickahead    -    Danzig        7.9        /    Kris        9.9   
Barodine    -    Barathea        9.5        /    Cadeaux Genereux        7.8   
Lapina    -    Fath        6.9        /    El Prado        10.1   
Brad's Luck    -    Lucky Story        7.9        /    Eagle Eyed        8.6   
Laconicos    -    Foxhound        7.2        /    Tenby        9.1   


As often in these AW staying races, there ain't much traditional stamina on show.  In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king kind of job.

CD winners - Paint The Town Red, Kickahead
C,D winners - Resplendent Ace, Dazzling Begum
Course winners - Barodine, Zalkani
Distance winner - Lapina

Was thinking of using the Course winners to narrow the contenders down.  However, as this is an AW race, I thought it was incumbent upon me to have a look at the horses thrown up by the CMP numbers.  Brad's Luck is stepping down from 2m at the track, and Laconicos is stepping up from 12f.  RP prices are 20/1 and 12/1 respectively.  If I was to do just one, it would be Laconicos, but at the prices, I'm gonna chuck £5 at each.

Not sure whether those gaps in the RP Sire Indices are caused by the new platform or by Excel 2007, as I was previously using Open Office.

Stanstill has been bought for an attempt on the Melbourne Cup.  Only rated 95 at the moment, so has to improve almost a stone to get into the race.  Entered in the Yorvik, although the stated target is the Braveheart at Hamilton on Friday.

Good race for the grade today.  I like two at double-figure odds.

Paint The Town Red was really impressive here two starts ago.  He wasn't suited by the small field and slow pace on the start after that and bombed on turf last time.  He's won once on turf, but his other turf efforts have been abysmal so I'm willing to forgive that.  Back down in grade and back over a C&D he has won on, he can outrun his odds.

Other one is Dazzling Begum.  Likes the track, trip winner, on a good handicap mark and seemingly coming into form.

Good luck.

Since I posted that PTTR has drifted from about 17 to 40, so he won't be winning!  Not backed him yet, probably still will but with a reduced stake, but expecting an "always in rear" now.

There's plenty of money for Resplendent Ace, I notice.  Dangerously well handicapped now, "rider never picked up whip" in the comments last time, no surprise if this one wins.  And hopefully the stewards will have something to say if it does.

Race 46 result

Wolverhampton 15:30
1st     2.Cozy Tiger (USA)     7.48     11/2
2nd     9.Laconicos (IRE)     14.74     12/1
3rd     13.Dazzling Begum     17.00     14/1
    12 ran
    Status: Result



This is a harsh sector we're competing in, Phoenix.

test

this may be red

RACE 47

Tuesday 11 May 2010

5.20 Yarmouth
1m6f 17y
Gd to Fm
Class 5 (0-75)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
52    Ultimate Guest
46    Kazbow
22    Royal Premier
16    Lady Eclair
16    Mr Plod

Dam's GSV [2005]
77.15    Kazbow
76.36    Ultimate Guest
68.53    Lady Eclair
68.53    Mr Plod
64.96    Royal Premier

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.23    Royal Premier
-0.10    Ultimate Guest
0.07    Kazbow
0.31    Mr Plod
0.69    Lady Eclair

CMP index
0.50    Kazbow
0.56    Mr Plod
0.57    Ultimate Guest
0.78    Lady Eclair
1.00    Royal Premier

RP Sire Index
Royal Premier    -        King's Theatre            11.3        /        Mtoto            11.5   
Ultimate Guest    -        Rainbow Quest            11.1        /        Sadler's Wells            11.3   
Kazbow    -        Rainbow Quest            11.1        /        Alzao            10.3   
Mr Plod    -        Silver Patriarch            10.7        /        Cadeaux Genereux            7.8   
Lady Eclair    -        Danehill Dancer            8.0        /        Explodent            6.7   


I don't feel too comfortable with the Turf races.  I've half a mind to put the entire Turf bank on Kazbow.  First of all need to work out how much is left in the Turf bank though.  Will sleep on it.

Kazbow set too slow a pace last time.  Same jockey, and a couple of furlongs further.

I'll be quasi-sensible, and put £10 on Kazbow.  Don't like short-priced horses at all.  No point in putting a little money on, and I can't stand putting mega amounts on a horse.

Mr Plod for me.  Woefully inconsistent, but I think he might prove quite a bit better on turf.  His sire is 19% on turf compared to 12% on the all-weather.  Didn't stay last time, possibly bounced prior to that.  Taken some 8/1.  Good luck.

A lighthearted diversion.  Eseej is running again in a few minutes.  I'd have thought the Stewards would have banned it from running lefthanded after last week . . .

Eseej didn't move to the outer rail until the home straight this time.  We seem to be a little too laisser faire about this sort of thing here.  I'm sure that in Australia the respective State Racing Club's vets would examine the horse, but the BHA don't seem to employ vets.


RACE 47 result

1 Royal Premier 33/1
2 Kazbow 15/8F
3 Ultimate Quest 100/30

5 ran Distances: ¾l, 2l, 13l
TIME 3m 5.64s (slow by 5.64s)

Really need to dig out the figures regarding the profit/loss.
Maybe Fallon will be on Kazbow next time?  Also, Ultimate Quest a horse to keep an eye on.


RACE 48

Wednesday 12 May 2010

7.00 Bath
1m5f 22y
Gd to Fm
Class 6 (0-65)

Spinning Waters should go close, as he loves the ground.  Small horse - does that mean he won't have progressed much from 3 to 4?
The one that has caught my eye at a bigger price is Olivino.  Trainer has had a couple of winners in the past week or so.  Horse has a good win record both on the Flat in Germany and over Hurdles here.  Been off the course for 6 months though.
£5 win Olivino.

Party Palace is the one I like.  Not sure Saute will like the ground, and that goes for Cote D'Argent too.  Spinning Waters is solid but I don't think he's any value.

PP is on a mark she's won off, likes fast ground and acts on the track.  Ran really well last time when going too fast and should be primed to run a big race now, this being her third run off a lay-off.  Good luck.

RACE 48 result

Bath 19:00
1st     1.Cote d'Argent     16.11     10/1
2nd     5.Graylyn Ruby (FR)     12.23     8/1
3rd     3.War of The Roses (IRE)     12.82     10/1
    12 ran   NR 4, 12
    Status: Weighed In


I was actually asleep, so missed this race.  Cote d'Argent's dam is In The Groove, winner of numerous Group 1s.

I've got the figures for this race and RACE 49, but don't have the time to post them until Thursday afternoon (wage-slave).

RACE 49

Thursday 13 May 2010
4.55 York
2m2f
Gd to Fm
Class 4 (0-80)


I've had a quick look at the form for RACE 49, paying particlar attention to fast ground performers and it rather annoyingly points out why I'm not keen on looking at form religiously and systematically, because my selection turns out to be the favourite - Twist Again.  Main dangers seem to be Bold Adventure and Strikemaster, with Proud Times, Chocolate Caramel, Calculating and King In Waiting prominent in the supporting cast.  This seems to be a race in which horses return to perform well again in, but there are no previous placegetters this year.  Previously, Kayf Aramis has won it three times, Mighty Moon won and was placed, and Rose Bien was placed a couple of times, so it may be worthwhile remembering this race for next year.

Quite keen on former Ebor winner Mudawin myself, will have a small play at a big price.

Had a few quid on Spruzzo in the next.  Showed his first form ever when winning at Ripon at 66/1, but it didn't appear to be a fluke.  He's drifted to a price that compensates for that small doubt anyway.  This stiffer track should suit, he's a galloper, and he looked as though he might be a bit better suited by going left-handed last time.  Good luck.

No surprise this has dropped to the second page.  Some of the results this year have been unfathomable.  66/1, 40/1 and 80/1 winners in recent weeks.  New week though and a new start.

Wightgold is a massive price for me today.  I've taken some 6.0.  Ran a blinder from miles out of the handicap in a far better race last time.  Looked the winner there at one stage.  8lbs lower now and takes a big drop in class.  Conditions are ideal and she's relatively unexposed.  Irish Legend isn't proven on the ground.  Brave Bugsy and Brandy Butter are both very average horses.  Good luck.

Good luck Phoenix.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I've given up on this thread.  I found it a bit difficult to keep up, and these aren't the sort of races I normally bet in.  It didn't help having the forum server or whatever upgrading, me getting a new computer, and then opening my open office spreadsheet in Excel, and then it turning into goggledygook.

Look good for a while, managed to lay off my stake at 1.4.

Back the above post, how the **** has that winner won?  Actually angry about it.  Pulled up in a claiming hurdle last time, maiden after 25 starts, totally unproven on the ground, just nothing to recommend it.  Another baffling result.

Back to the grind.  Strikemaster and Ocean Bright at Nottingham and Musselburgh respectively.

445 bath today

like one in this Spiritonthemount very much on the upgrade in these cons whould make it a bit shorter than 6.2

I'm going to resurrect this, starting afresh after a little break.

Probably not going to start with a winner, but Prickles looks overpriced at Kempton tonight (currently 20, but scope to get bigger).  Taken a while to get fit, but is in form and improving now.  Shaped like a stayer last time out, Karen George is in brilliant form at the moment and proven on the all-weather.  Decent contest for the grade, but should outrun her price.

Good luck.

Pretty confident of Wightgold running a big race at Goodwood today.  Have been keeping an eye on this one since she was very well backed for her reappearance when finishing a close third.  Got outstayed there, and that's a general theme with her.  Her last two runs at Bath have been highly promising.  The first, from 14lbs out of the handicap, was a blinder.  She looked dangerous turning in there and would have been a clear second in a much better race than today's (off 11lbs higher than today) until her stamina ebbed away in the final furlong.  On her penultimate start, she breezed into the lead going best 2f out but again got outstayed by horses she had cruised past just a furlong earlier.  Her latest run was a poor one on the all-weather, but she again held a chance 3f out on a surface she doesn't enjoy.  Back on turf and dropped to this trip on a fast track, I can see her going well if she handles the undulations.  Good luck.

Taking a chance on Dayia here.  Ground too fast last time in a strongly run race; apart from herself and the winner, all of the prominent runners were thumped.  Hold ups, like the favourite tonight, may have been flattered there and Dayia will be really well suited by the return to an easier surface.  Previous win very impressive.  Taken some 11/2.

Back into battle.

A little short of the distance stated in the thread title, but whatever.  Bavarian Nordic looks well over-priced at around 30 or so on here.  Had a profitable season in 2008, but largely found the step up to Class 4 races beyond him last season.  He needs a Class 5 contest and a recent run, which he gets here.  Ran well on his penultimate start when still in need of the run and patently didn't stay last time.  I think 12f stretches him on turf, but he gets it fine on the all-weather.  Dropped to a very fair mark now, should be pitch perfect, conditions to suit and the yard remains in superb form.  Far too big a price in a weak race.

At Southwell tonight, Silent Lucidity is going to find this a lot easier than when running a good handicap at Doncaster last time, the form of which has worked out well.  Unproven on the surface, but these rivals are poor and he should be right there if he handles it.

Good luck.