Horse Antepost
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Okay, I'll baggsy these.
I'm not expecting to highlight many winners, so we'll reassess the situation after the year's highlight, the Pontefract Marathon, in case someone else thinks they can do a better job.
I'm not expecting to highlight many winners, so we'll reassess the situation after the year's highlight, the Pontefract Marathon, in case someone else thinks they can do a better job.
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I will deal with Flat races @ 2m6f or further :)
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It pays to specialise !
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I'll do all the "Royal Whips" then..................
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Seriously, I could deal with some of the big Irish handicaps if anyone's interested......
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What was the name of the horse that won the ponty marathon h'cap a few times ?
I think they named the race after him as well . |
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We need Mystic Meg to do them DI !!!!!
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CC,was it trained by Mrs S Larryman,blue colours i think ?
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Hi TT . I can't recall anything about the connections , my minds a complete blank - i feel like Trev !
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oh dear,things must be bad :^0
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Great As Gold was a standing dish around there, iirc :)
I will never forget Villago winning - that was the day of Cuth's treble. Villago, Major Magpie & Zomerlust :x |
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custardcream64 14 Mar 16:41
What was the name of the horse that won the ponty marathon h'cap a few times ? I think they named the race after him as well . Jamaican Flight. |
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Me2 :x that's the one,been bugging me for ages ;\
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Well, 40 minutes, anyway.
We ought to be able to make a bit of money here. There will be a few paceless, bad horses stepped up in trip to see whether they can win/stay. This should mean there is a little bit of deadwood in the betting. By setting ourselves the modest target of making 2% profit on each race, we can turn £100 into £5000 over the course of 198 races. 1 102.00 2 104.04 3 106.12 4 108.24 5 110.41 6 112.62 7 114.87 8 117.17 9 119.51 10 121.90 11 124.34 12 126.82 13 129.36 14 131.95 15 134.59 16 137.28 17 140.02 18 142.82 19 145.68 20 148.59 21 151.57 22 154.60 23 157.69 24 160.84 25 164.06 26 167.34 27 170.69 28 174.10 29 177.58 30 181.14 31 184.76 32 188.45 33 192.22 34 196.07 35 199.99 36 203.99 37 208.07 38 212.23 39 216.47 40 220.80 41 225.22 42 229.72 43 234.32 44 239.01 45 243.79 46 248.66 47 253.63 48 258.71 49 263.88 50 269.16 51 274.54 52 280.03 53 285.63 54 291.35 55 297.17 56 303.12 57 309.18 58 315.36 59 321.67 60 328.10 61 334.67 62 341.36 63 348.19 64 355.15 65 362.25 66 369.50 67 376.89 68 384.43 69 392.11 70 399.96 71 407.95 72 416.11 73 424.44 74 432.93 75 441.58 76 450.42 77 459.42 78 468.61 79 477.98 80 487.54 81 497.29 82 507.24 83 517.39 84 527.73 85 538.29 86 549.05 87 560.03 88 571.24 89 582.66 90 594.31 91 606.20 92 618.32 93 630.69 94 643.30 95 656.17 96 669.29 97 682.68 98 696.33 99 710.26 100 724.46 101 738.95 102 753.73 103 768.81 104 784.18 105 799.87 106 815.86 107 832.18 108 848.83 109 865.80 110 883.12 111 900.78 112 918.80 113 937.17 114 955.92 115 975.03 116 994.53 117 1014.43 118 1034.71 119 1055.41 120 1076.52 121 1098.05 122 1120.01 123 1142.41 124 1165.26 125 1188.56 126 1212.33 127 1236.58 128 1261.31 129 1286.54 130 1312.27 131 1338.51 132 1365.28 133 1392.59 134 1420.44 135 1448.85 136 1477.83 137 1507.38 138 1537.53 139 1568.28 140 1599.65 141 1631.64 142 1664.27 143 1697.56 144 1731.51 145 1766.14 146 1801.46 147 1837.49 148 1874.24 149 1911.73 150 1949.96 151 1988.96 152 2028.74 153 2069.31 154 2110.70 155 2152.91 156 2195.97 157 2239.89 158 2284.69 159 2330.38 160 2376.99 161 2424.53 162 2473.02 163 2522.48 164 2572.93 165 2624.39 166 2676.88 167 2730.42 168 2785.02 169 2840.72 170 2897.54 171 2955.49 172 3014.60 173 3074.89 174 3136.39 175 3199.12 176 3263.10 177 3328.36 178 3394.93 179 3462.83 180 3532.08 181 3602.72 182 3674.78 183 3748.27 184 3823.24 185 3899.71 186 3977.70 187 4057.25 188 4138.40 189 4221.17 190 4305.59 191 4391.70 192 4479.54 193 4569.13 194 4660.51 195 4753.72 196 4848.79 197 4945.77 198 5044.68 |
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The main feature I shall use is the Conduit Mare Profile Index. Haven't done much research yet, but I think if we set this to between 0.50 and 0.80 we catch most winners.
PARADIGM Ran in the last 35 days. Placed last time out (except if Johnston's). CMP Index 0-50-0.80 Dosage Centre Of Distribution no higher than 0.80 ??? Course winner, especially on the All-Weather |
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Jamican Flight , thats the one !
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Just looked at the races for 20th March to 19th April last year. Included the non h'caps.
21 races. Biggest winner 8/1. That is GOOD, as we shouldn't be vulnerable to too many shock results. Only 3 winners older than 6. Additional Paradigm:- no Maidens, unless they're a 4yo. (Need to check how many winners this knocks out.) These were the CMP figures:- 0.75 0.63 0.75 0.73 0.80 1.20 0.58 0.55 0.65 0.79 1.32 0.68 0.58 (successive win) 0.53 0.87 0.65 (successive win) 0.58 0.68 0.83 1.24 0.77 The two highest, 1.32 and 1.24, were both sired by Daylami, so it looks like something weird is happening with his figures, and his stock can be excused boots for this measure. The other one out of whack, 1.20, was actually for the most famous race during this period - the Queen's Prize. The winner was a Course & Distance winner. Looks like I should stretch if from 0.50-0.80 to 0.50-0.90. |
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Only 3 horses, winners of 4 of the 21 races, had a Dosage Centre Of Distribution higher than 0.50
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''his stock can be excused boots for this measure''
you've lost me, pal. good luck |
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Duncan, this is from the front page of the Pedigree Query website:-
Conduit Mare Profiles Added We've just added Bill Lathrop's Modern Conduit Mare Profiles to our pedigree printouts. His system is similar to Steve Roman's Dosage indexes in that it attempts to measure speed and stamina influences in a pedigree. However, it differs from Roman's approach in that it uses female families rather than influential sires to analyze the pedigree. Bill publishes a book about the subject if you want to learn more about it. The conduit profiles will appear below the pedigrees for subscribers to the site only. I subscribe to Pedigree Query ($10 per month), so I get to see the Conduit Mare Profile figures. I can't explain in any further detail how the bloke works them out, as he became ill last year, and his website packed up, so I was unable to buy his book. His CMP Index is closer to how the Dosage Centre Of Distribution is worked out, rather than the Dosage Index. Figures higher than 1 are**towards Speed, and those lower than 1 to Stamina. In the 21 results I looked at for 20 March to 19th April last year, there were 3 winners with a CMP index bigger than 0.90. 2 of these 3 were sired by Daylami. As we know that Daylami can sire stayers, it seems best to ignore any figures his progeny get on this measure. "Excused boots" is an expression from the army, and I think is self-explanatory. Is that okay? |
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His CMP Index is closer to how the Dosage Centre Of Distribution is worked out, rather than the Dosage Index. Figures higher than 1 are**towards Speed, and those lower than 1 to Stamina.
By this I mean that the range doesn't go up to infinity; it seems to be between two and zero. The Dosage Centre Of Distribution range is plus 2 to minus 2. The Dosage Index range is zero to infinity, but I'm not bothering to use this measure. |
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To clear up another point, the Jamaican Flight H'cap is a couple of weeks before the Pontefract Marathon, and acts as a trial for it.
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I'm getting the feeling that the CMP figures are extremely good for the All-Weather, but that the Racing Post Sire Stamina figures work better for the Turf.
First race is on Wednesday, so I can afford to spend a few hours today looking at the figures for last May. |
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Just got 1p matched at 4.7 on Veloso! :D
Going for a kip, a bit of work on the race, and then I'll write up the 4.25 at Southwell tomorrow. |
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Wednesday 17th March 2010
1m6f Class 5 (0-75) 4.25 Southwell (Standard) 7 runners, none of whom are maidens. Veloso, Hi Dancer, My Fried Fritz and Lava Steps are course winners. Chocolate Caramel is almost a course winner, as he was only beaten a head, latest. MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS Dosage Points 34 Bushy Dell 26 Lava Steps 20 Heathyards Junior 18 Chocolate Caramel 14 Hi Dancer 12 Veloso 12 My Friend Fritz Dam's GSV [2005] 79.38 Lava Steps 68.11 Bushy Dell 67.87 Chocolate Caramel 67.58 Heathyards Junior 67.49 Veloso 66.77 Hi Dancer 59.44 My Friend Fritz MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA Centre Of Distribution 0.03 Bushy Dell 0.04 Lava Steps 0.42 Veloso 0.45 Heathyards Junior 0.50 Chocolate Caramel 0.92 My Friend Fritz 1.00 Hi Dancer Conduit Mare Profile Index 0.63 Bushy Dell 0.64 Chocolate Caramel 0.67 Veloso 0.95 Hi Dancer 1.05 My Friend Fritz 1.05 Lava Steps 1.44 Heathyards Junior This is the main tool I shall use on the All-Weather, and we are looking for horses with a CMP Index of between 0.50 and 0.90 roughly. Racing Post Stamina Indices Chocolate Caramel - Storm Creek 12.8 / Baynoun - Veloso - Kaldounevees 11.5 / Exit To Nowhere 10.1 Lava Steps - Giant's Causeway 9.5 / Sadler's Wells 11.3 Bushy Dell - King Charlemagne 8.6 / In The Wings 11.7 Hi Dancer - Medicean 8.8 / Inchinor 8.9 Heathyards Junior - Beat All 8.9 / Mining 7.8 My Friend Fritz - Safawan 8.1 / Mazilier 8.2 FORM Chocolate Caramel Beaten a hd CD latest, same mark. Hasn't run since 15 Jan, so he's either had a small setback, or they decided to rest him before the start of the Turf season. Veloso Won last week in his first race for 16 months. AW record is 7r 4w 2p. Hi Dancer Won a hdle race last week. My Friend Fritz 10yo. Only likely to win if everything else fails to fire. Heathyards Junior 4yo. Only run 7 times, furthest was 1m3f lto, staying on. Has a half-brother who won 12 times, but furthest was 12f. Looking at pedigree, I am going to use my lack of judgment to rule this one out. Lava Steps 4yo. Since winning his maiden, has been beaten twice in h'caps, so Official Handicapper might have him. Bushy Dell 3lbs lower than when won in September. Disappointed latest. I wouldn't be surprised if she won, but I'm not putting money on it. SELECTION(S) I'd prefer not to back the favourite, but Veloso fits the CMP profile. has recent form, and is single figures in the betting market. (There doesn't seem to be too many winners of these races bigger than 8/1.) £2 win, at about 13/8. I'm not too worried about bounce - this is the first race of 198, so its not the end of the world if the horse loses. Chocolate Caramel is an alternative selection if someone wants one. Bushy Dell is ruled out on price. Hi Dancer is the obvious danger, but marginally gets chucked on CMP. |
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Wednesday 17th March 2010
1m6f Class 5 (0-75) 4.25 Southwell (Standard) 7 runners, none of whom are maidens. Veloso, Hi Dancer, My Fried Fritz and Lava Steps are course winners. Chocolate Caramel is almost a course winner, as he was only beaten a head, latest. MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS Dosage Points 34 Bushy Dell 26 Lava Steps 20 Heathyards Junior 18 Chocolate Caramel 14 Hi Dancer 12 Veloso 12 My Friend Fritz Dam's GSV [2005] 79.38 Lava Steps 68.11 Bushy Dell 67.87 Chocolate Caramel 67.58 Heathyards Junior 67.49 Veloso 66.77 Hi Dancer 59.44 My Friend Fritz MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA Centre Of Distribution 0.03 Bushy Dell 0.04 Lava Steps 0.42 Veloso 0.45 Heathyards Junior 0.50 Chocolate Caramel 0.92 My Friend Fritz 1.00 Hi Dancer Conduit Mare Profile Index 0.63 Bushy Dell 0.64 Chocolate Caramel 0.67 Veloso 0.95 Hi Dancer 1.05 My Friend Fritz 1.05 Lava Steps 1.44 Heathyards Junior This is the main tool I shall use on the All-Weather, and we are looking for horses with a CMP Index of between 0.50 and 0.90 roughly. RP Stamina Indices Chocolate Caramel - Storm Creek 12.8 / Baynoun - Veloso - Kaldounevees 11.5 / Exit To Nowhere 10.1 Lava Steps - Giant's Causeway 9.5 / Sadler's Wells 11.3 Bushy Dell - King Charlemagne 8.6 / In The Wings 11.7 Hi Dancer - Medicean 8.8 / Inchinor 8.9 Heathyards Junior - Beat All 8.9 / Mining 7.8 My Friend Fritz - Safawan 8.1 / Mazilier 8.2 FORM Chocolate Caramel Beaten a hd CD latest, same mark. Hasn't run since 15 Jan, so he's either had a small setback, or they decided to rest him before the start of the Turf season. Veloso Won last week in his first race for 16 months. AW record is 7r 4w 2p. Hi Dancer Won a hdle race last week. My Friend Fritz 10yo. Only likely to win if everything else fails to fire. Heathyards Junior 4yo. Only run 7 times, furthest was 1m3f lto, staying on. Has a half-brother who won 12 times, but furthest was 12f. Looking at pedigree, I am going to use my lack of judgment to rule this one out. Lava Steps 4yo. Since winning his maiden, has been beaten twice in h'caps, so Official Handicapper might have him. Bushy Dell 3lbs lower than when won in September. Disappointed latest. I wouldn't be surprised if she won, but I'm not putting money on it. SELECTION(S) I'd prefer not to back the favourite, but Veloso fits the CMP profile. has recent form, and is single figures in the betting market. (There doesn't seem to be too many winners of these races bigger than 8/1.) £2 win, at about 13/8. I'm not too worried about bounce - this is the first race of 198, so its not the end of the world if the horse loses. Chocolate Caramel is an alternative selection if someone wants one. Bushy Dell is ruled out on price. Hi Dancer is the obvious danger, but marginally gets chucked on CMP. |
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Sorry about duplicate posting. Was told contained invalid data (cheeky sods), so I changed Racing Post to RP and tried again.
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I thought this was for big races :D
Nice write up Me2, I'll offer no opinion because I don't bet at Southwell. |
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If I just restricted it to big races Ben, I'd get too bored waiting between races. Instead, I am using it as a study in betting and pedigree. Basically, trying to double money every 33 races.
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Ah I see, well good luck with this, I usually look out for the results so will keep an eye on it.
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RACE 1 RESULT
Starting Prices Betfair Industry Southwell 16:25 1st 2.Veloso (FR) 2.40 5/4F 2nd 5.Heathyards Junior 10.50 8/1 7 ran Status: Result I'll work these out at Betfair SP. £2 @ 2.40 = £4.80 £2.80 profit less 5% commission = 2.66 Bank stands at £102.66 Heathyards Junior stayed a bit better than I was expecting. Chocolate Caramel was third. |
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Me2 ;)
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I was thinking that maybe someone might pick me up on my staking. Say selections are 6/4, and I'm expecting a 50% strike-rate (which I ain't), and I want to grow at 2% per race. I ought to stake £8, so that after a winner and a loser, I am at my £104 target after two races. I couldn't really stomach that, because say the first horse lost, I'd have gone from £100 to £92 after the first race. Looks like the 2% growth rate is unattainable/unsustainable, so I'll just potter along and see what happens.
RACE 2 Pre-race Bank £102.66 Post-race Target £104.04 Friday 19th March 2010 7.20 Wolverhampton STANDARD 2m 119yds H'cap Class 4 (0-85) 6 runners. No 4yos. Sinbad The Sailor and Calculating are CD winners. Clear Sailing and Star Choice are course winners. Pedigree stuff in next post. |
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MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS
Dosage Points 34 Calculating 26 Dancing Sword 22 Gremlin 20 Clear Sailing 14 Sinbad The Sailor 14 Star Choice Dam's Genetic Strength Value [2005 figures] 74.30 Calculating 71.83 Dancing Sword 68.23 Clear Sailing 65.63 Gremlin 64.95 Sinbad The Sailor 64.57 Star Choice MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA CD 0.35 Clear Sailing [stamina] 0.35 Dancing Sword 0.71 Sinbad The Sailor 0.73 Gremlin 0.76 Calculating 1.21 Star Choice [speed] CMP Index 0.86 Sinbad The Sailor 1.00 Calculating 1.00 Dancing Sword 1.50 Gremlin 1.69 Star Choice CMP is the main determinant I am using on the All-Weather, and Sinbad The Sailor is the automatic selection, being the only one in the desired range. £2 win, unless he is odds on. 5yo, has won the last twice, but is now 15 lbs higher than when CD winner two runs ago. One is rather reminded of the Mordin quote about no horses staying beyond a mile nowadays. RP Stamina Indices Dancing Sword - Groom Dancer 10.0 / Kris 9.9 Calculating - Machiavellian 9.2 / El Prado 10.1 Gremlin - Mujahid 8.4 / Rousillon 10.6 Clear Sailing - Selkirk 8.9 / Tenby 9.1 Sinbad The Sailor - Cape Cross 8.7 / Irish River 9.3 Star Choice - Choisir 7.5 / Damister 9.2 I'll have another look at the race, when the betting comes out tomorrow evening. |
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Good luck Me2
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Left out Clear Sailing's CMP Index figure - it is 1.05
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Just noticed it's not this race coming up :D
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:D
I really need to learn to do more than 2 or 3 of these faces. |
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Here you are ;)
http://www.sma**on.com/GGs/BetfairSmileyFaces.htm |
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:x Ben
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