Horse Antepost
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Now that the Prestige Stakes and the Moyglare Stud Stakes are out of the way, this seems an opportune moment to review the two year old fillies with an eye on the 1000 Guineas market. Heres a list of the main contenders in the Guineas betting, with a summary of their form and current Racing Post Ratings (RPR):
Seta (L.M.Cumani) (RPR 95) -1: generally 7/1-8/1, 10/1 in a place. Highly regarded, won her maiden at HQ by 8 lengths in the style of a filly thats likely to make her mark in pattern company. Likely to run next in the May Hill Stakes en route to the Fillies Mile.
Lady Of The Desert (B.J.Meehan) (RPR 112) -1611: generally 8/1-10/1, 12/1 in a place. Only defeat came in the Queen Mary when she tried to match strides with the very fast Jealous Again. Improved form when stepped up to 6f in the Princess Margaret and visually even more impressive when winning the Lowther by 3 lengths from highly regarded maiden winner who was nicely clear of the third. Bred to get a mile and likely to head for the Cheveley Park Stakes.
Lillie Langtry (A.P.OBrien) (RPR 107) -21213: generally 8/1-12/1. Showed a smart turn of foot over 6f at Naas on first two starts (including in defeat on debut) before finding only Habaayib too quick in the Albany Stakes. Looked a smart filly when winning the Debutante Stakes over 7f on yielding ground but was totally unsuited by the very heavy ground next time in the Moyglare.
Special Duty (C.Head-Maarek) (RPR 112) -212: generally 10/1-12/1, but not quoted by some firms. Very fast and progressive filly, showed considerable promise on debut and then beat the highly rated Siyouni in a fast time in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin. Again showed loads of pace before being collared on the line in the Gr.1 Prix Morny over 6f in a very fast time. Stays 6f well and bred to stay a mile in time. May run next in the Cheveley Park Stakes.
Cabaret (A.P.OBrien) (RPR 106) -211: generally 12/1-14/1. Beaten by the smart Termagant on debut and showed expected improvement when winning next two races, including Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes by 4½ lengths. A resolute galloper who is well suited by yielding ground, she shapes as though she will stay much further.
Termagant (K.Prendergast) (RPR 109) -11: generally 12/1-16/1, 20/1 in a place. Beat the smart Cabaret on debut before overcoming very testing ground to win the Moyglare in a very slow time, showing a good cruising speed. May not run again this season and trainer talking about Irish Guineas next season.
Misheer (C.E.Brittain) (RPR 108) -1121: generally 14/1-16/1, 20/1 in a place. Smart sprinting filly, her only defeat was at the hands of Jealous Again in the Queen Mary. Last time won the Cherry Hinton in fine style, running on strongly in the final furlong to score by over 3 lengths from the smart Habaayib. Pulled out of the Moyglare because of the testing ground, she may head for the Cheveley Park Stakes. Speedily bred and not certain to stay a mile.
Habaayib (E.A.L.Dunlop) (RPR 105) -3112: generally 16/1-25/1. Very progressive filly in first three starts, culminating in victory over Lillie Langtry in the Albany Stakes. Was reportedly coming into season when finishing runner-up to Misheer in the Cherry Hinton last time. Quite speedily bred, likely to get 7 furlongs but not certain to stay a mile.
Walk On Water (H.R.A.Cecil) (RPR 94) -11: generally 20/1-25/1, 33/1 in a place, not quoted by all firms. Speedily bred filly, unbeaten in two starts over 6 furlongs, including impressive win in conditions race at Chester last time. No big entries at this stage.
Long Lashes (Saeed Bin Suroor) (RPR 105) -114: generally 25/1-33/1? Smart filly, won Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes in taking style on second start before becoming unstuck in testing conditions in the Moyglare. Reportedly likely to be aimed at UAE Guineas and Oaks early next year.
Of the fillies listed above, Seta is current favourite for the 1000 Guineas on the basis of an impressive maiden win and a tall home reputation. An anticipated win in the May Hill next time is already factored into her price, though shes likely to shorten up even more in the betting if she impresses at Doncaster. Followers of Luca Cumani and his training methods will realise that this filly is probably Group 1 class, as it is rare for one of his juvenile fillies to win first time out at a Grade 1 course and even rarer for one to win so impressively. She has a lot going for her as a prospective Guineas filly, as she will definitely get the mile and is not short of speed. There is a slight concern if she runs in the Fillies Mile, as it has been such a poor guide to the Guineas in recent years. Of the other 7f fillies we have seen, Lillie Langtry had looked the best of them before her run in the Moyglare and she remains a good prospect on better ground. Termagant clearly handles heavy ground very well but may be flattered by her convincing Moyglare win: she does not appeal as a Newmarket Guineas filly at this stage and may have the Irish Guineas as her main objective next year. Cabaret is a powerful galloping sort who is bred to go further than a mile next year and the suspicion must be that she will be more of an Oaks type than a Guineas filly. Long Lashes looked smart in the Sweet Solera but got tired in the heavy ground in the Moyglare and will surely now be given a break. She is reportedly being aimed at the UAE Guineas and Oaks at Meydan, which is hardly the ideal preparation for the Newmarket Guineas.
Of the 6f fillies we have seen, Special Duty, Lady Of The Desert and Misheer have shown the smartest form to date. All three could end up going for the Cheveley Park Stakes later this season. On breeding Misheer is a doubtful stayer, but she ran on very strongly in the final furlong when winning the Cherry Hinton last time and shapes as though 7f will be no problem. Special Duty should get a mile on breeding but has shown so much speed over 5½ and 6f that there must now be doubts about her getting a mile: connections were even talking about a possible tilt at the Abbaye over 5f next time if she doesnt go for the Cheveley Park. She will clearly have to learn to settle a lot better in her races if shes to stay a mile, but she wasnt stopping at the end of the Morny. Lady Of The Desert is bred to get the mile so it is very encouraging that she has shown so much tactical speed in her races: she was particularly impressive last time in the Lowther and is a very smart filly. Habaayib may be better than she showed in the Cherry Hinton and remains an interesting prospect, though there are doubts about her getting a mile. Walk On Water is quoted by some bookmakers for the Guineas but shes a very fast 6f filly and there must be doubts about her getting a mile.
Apart from those already mentioned, Dolled Up (RPR 110) was only about a length behind Special Duty in the Prix Morny and is progressing nicely. Being by Whipper she has prospects of getting a mile in time and holds an entry in the Cheveley Park, but she has already run six times and is trained by R**(not noted for cross-channel raids in recent years). Jealous Again (RPR 115), now with Godolphin, is the highest rated filly but is very very fast and surely has no chance of getting a mile. Walk On Bye (RPR 106) had looked a smart filly before meeting with her first defeat in the Phoenix Stakes, where she looked a bit onepaced. Sent From Heaven (RPR 101) just prevailed in a four-way blanket finish in the Prestige Stakes, but its anyones guess which of those four would come on top next time.
There are several unexposed fillies worth a mention. Olvia (RPR 97), trained by Carlos Laffon-Parias, is unbeaten in two races and possesses a smart turn of foot: we may see her next in the Prix DAumale as a prep for the Prix Marcel Boussac, but she doesnt appeal as a potential Guineas filly if shes good enough shes more likely to stay at home for the Pouliches. Hungry Heart (RPR 96), trained by Andre Fabre, was only beaten a nose by Olvia last time on her second start and is potentially smart. Conniption (RPR 90), trained by Brian Meehan, was an impressive winner of a Newbury maiden over 6f on debut and looks a smart prospect. She holds entries in the Cheveley Park, Fillies Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac. Barry Hills filly Champagnelifestyle (RPR 85) won nicely on debut at Newmarket on soft ground, but the form was let down to some extent by the runner-up Qaraaba. She holds an entry in the Fillies Mile and is one to keep an eye on. Tabassum (RPR 80), trained by Sir M Stoute, created a nice impression when winning a 7f maiden at Newmarket on debut , but the form doesnt look that strong (the runner-up was beaten at Folkestone next time) and she doesnt hold any big race entries.
As far as the 1000 Guineas is concerned I am a big fan of Seta, Lady Of The Desert and Special Duty. Unsurprisingly, they are all trading at fairly short prices, but I managed to back all three at much longer odds than are now available. Misheer would also appeal if she had a miling pedigree. Cabaret may come into the reckoning if she takes her chance in either the Fillies Mile or the Prix Marcel Boussac, but she strikes me as a 10f filly in the making. Of the unexposed fillies I particularly like Conniption but have no idea how she compares at home with Lady Of The Desert.
Id welcome any comments on the above. What do other people fancy for the 1000 Guineas? Any dark horses to keep an eye on?
Seta (L.M.Cumani) (RPR 95) -1: generally 7/1-8/1, 10/1 in a place. Highly regarded, won her maiden at HQ by 8 lengths in the style of a filly thats likely to make her mark in pattern company. Likely to run next in the May Hill Stakes en route to the Fillies Mile.
Lady Of The Desert (B.J.Meehan) (RPR 112) -1611: generally 8/1-10/1, 12/1 in a place. Only defeat came in the Queen Mary when she tried to match strides with the very fast Jealous Again. Improved form when stepped up to 6f in the Princess Margaret and visually even more impressive when winning the Lowther by 3 lengths from highly regarded maiden winner who was nicely clear of the third. Bred to get a mile and likely to head for the Cheveley Park Stakes.
Lillie Langtry (A.P.OBrien) (RPR 107) -21213: generally 8/1-12/1. Showed a smart turn of foot over 6f at Naas on first two starts (including in defeat on debut) before finding only Habaayib too quick in the Albany Stakes. Looked a smart filly when winning the Debutante Stakes over 7f on yielding ground but was totally unsuited by the very heavy ground next time in the Moyglare.
Special Duty (C.Head-Maarek) (RPR 112) -212: generally 10/1-12/1, but not quoted by some firms. Very fast and progressive filly, showed considerable promise on debut and then beat the highly rated Siyouni in a fast time in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin. Again showed loads of pace before being collared on the line in the Gr.1 Prix Morny over 6f in a very fast time. Stays 6f well and bred to stay a mile in time. May run next in the Cheveley Park Stakes.
Cabaret (A.P.OBrien) (RPR 106) -211: generally 12/1-14/1. Beaten by the smart Termagant on debut and showed expected improvement when winning next two races, including Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes by 4½ lengths. A resolute galloper who is well suited by yielding ground, she shapes as though she will stay much further.
Termagant (K.Prendergast) (RPR 109) -11: generally 12/1-16/1, 20/1 in a place. Beat the smart Cabaret on debut before overcoming very testing ground to win the Moyglare in a very slow time, showing a good cruising speed. May not run again this season and trainer talking about Irish Guineas next season.
Misheer (C.E.Brittain) (RPR 108) -1121: generally 14/1-16/1, 20/1 in a place. Smart sprinting filly, her only defeat was at the hands of Jealous Again in the Queen Mary. Last time won the Cherry Hinton in fine style, running on strongly in the final furlong to score by over 3 lengths from the smart Habaayib. Pulled out of the Moyglare because of the testing ground, she may head for the Cheveley Park Stakes. Speedily bred and not certain to stay a mile.
Habaayib (E.A.L.Dunlop) (RPR 105) -3112: generally 16/1-25/1. Very progressive filly in first three starts, culminating in victory over Lillie Langtry in the Albany Stakes. Was reportedly coming into season when finishing runner-up to Misheer in the Cherry Hinton last time. Quite speedily bred, likely to get 7 furlongs but not certain to stay a mile.
Walk On Water (H.R.A.Cecil) (RPR 94) -11: generally 20/1-25/1, 33/1 in a place, not quoted by all firms. Speedily bred filly, unbeaten in two starts over 6 furlongs, including impressive win in conditions race at Chester last time. No big entries at this stage.
Long Lashes (Saeed Bin Suroor) (RPR 105) -114: generally 25/1-33/1? Smart filly, won Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes in taking style on second start before becoming unstuck in testing conditions in the Moyglare. Reportedly likely to be aimed at UAE Guineas and Oaks early next year.
Of the fillies listed above, Seta is current favourite for the 1000 Guineas on the basis of an impressive maiden win and a tall home reputation. An anticipated win in the May Hill next time is already factored into her price, though shes likely to shorten up even more in the betting if she impresses at Doncaster. Followers of Luca Cumani and his training methods will realise that this filly is probably Group 1 class, as it is rare for one of his juvenile fillies to win first time out at a Grade 1 course and even rarer for one to win so impressively. She has a lot going for her as a prospective Guineas filly, as she will definitely get the mile and is not short of speed. There is a slight concern if she runs in the Fillies Mile, as it has been such a poor guide to the Guineas in recent years. Of the other 7f fillies we have seen, Lillie Langtry had looked the best of them before her run in the Moyglare and she remains a good prospect on better ground. Termagant clearly handles heavy ground very well but may be flattered by her convincing Moyglare win: she does not appeal as a Newmarket Guineas filly at this stage and may have the Irish Guineas as her main objective next year. Cabaret is a powerful galloping sort who is bred to go further than a mile next year and the suspicion must be that she will be more of an Oaks type than a Guineas filly. Long Lashes looked smart in the Sweet Solera but got tired in the heavy ground in the Moyglare and will surely now be given a break. She is reportedly being aimed at the UAE Guineas and Oaks at Meydan, which is hardly the ideal preparation for the Newmarket Guineas.
Of the 6f fillies we have seen, Special Duty, Lady Of The Desert and Misheer have shown the smartest form to date. All three could end up going for the Cheveley Park Stakes later this season. On breeding Misheer is a doubtful stayer, but she ran on very strongly in the final furlong when winning the Cherry Hinton last time and shapes as though 7f will be no problem. Special Duty should get a mile on breeding but has shown so much speed over 5½ and 6f that there must now be doubts about her getting a mile: connections were even talking about a possible tilt at the Abbaye over 5f next time if she doesnt go for the Cheveley Park. She will clearly have to learn to settle a lot better in her races if shes to stay a mile, but she wasnt stopping at the end of the Morny. Lady Of The Desert is bred to get the mile so it is very encouraging that she has shown so much tactical speed in her races: she was particularly impressive last time in the Lowther and is a very smart filly. Habaayib may be better than she showed in the Cherry Hinton and remains an interesting prospect, though there are doubts about her getting a mile. Walk On Water is quoted by some bookmakers for the Guineas but shes a very fast 6f filly and there must be doubts about her getting a mile.
Apart from those already mentioned, Dolled Up (RPR 110) was only about a length behind Special Duty in the Prix Morny and is progressing nicely. Being by Whipper she has prospects of getting a mile in time and holds an entry in the Cheveley Park, but she has already run six times and is trained by R**(not noted for cross-channel raids in recent years). Jealous Again (RPR 115), now with Godolphin, is the highest rated filly but is very very fast and surely has no chance of getting a mile. Walk On Bye (RPR 106) had looked a smart filly before meeting with her first defeat in the Phoenix Stakes, where she looked a bit onepaced. Sent From Heaven (RPR 101) just prevailed in a four-way blanket finish in the Prestige Stakes, but its anyones guess which of those four would come on top next time.
There are several unexposed fillies worth a mention. Olvia (RPR 97), trained by Carlos Laffon-Parias, is unbeaten in two races and possesses a smart turn of foot: we may see her next in the Prix DAumale as a prep for the Prix Marcel Boussac, but she doesnt appeal as a potential Guineas filly if shes good enough shes more likely to stay at home for the Pouliches. Hungry Heart (RPR 96), trained by Andre Fabre, was only beaten a nose by Olvia last time on her second start and is potentially smart. Conniption (RPR 90), trained by Brian Meehan, was an impressive winner of a Newbury maiden over 6f on debut and looks a smart prospect. She holds entries in the Cheveley Park, Fillies Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac. Barry Hills filly Champagnelifestyle (RPR 85) won nicely on debut at Newmarket on soft ground, but the form was let down to some extent by the runner-up Qaraaba. She holds an entry in the Fillies Mile and is one to keep an eye on. Tabassum (RPR 80), trained by Sir M Stoute, created a nice impression when winning a 7f maiden at Newmarket on debut , but the form doesnt look that strong (the runner-up was beaten at Folkestone next time) and she doesnt hold any big race entries.
As far as the 1000 Guineas is concerned I am a big fan of Seta, Lady Of The Desert and Special Duty. Unsurprisingly, they are all trading at fairly short prices, but I managed to back all three at much longer odds than are now available. Misheer would also appeal if she had a miling pedigree. Cabaret may come into the reckoning if she takes her chance in either the Fillies Mile or the Prix Marcel Boussac, but she strikes me as a 10f filly in the making. Of the unexposed fillies I particularly like Conniption but have no idea how she compares at home with Lady Of The Desert.
Id welcome any comments on the above. What do other people fancy for the 1000 Guineas? Any dark horses to keep an eye on?
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Kieren Fallon has decided to ride Seta in the StanJames.com 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 2.
The former champion jockey has plumped for the Luca Cumani-trained filly over Music Show, on whom he rode to victory for Mick Channon in the Nell Gwyn Stakes last week. Channon has acted swiftly by booking reigning champion Ryan Moore for the Jaber Abdullah-owned daughter of Noverre.
"Kieren had to make a decision and he told me that he was going to ride Seta," said the West Ilsley trainer.
"Ryan Moore will ride Music Show. I'm happy to have any champion on my horse."
Music Show is second favourite for the fillies' Classic at around 6-1, while Seta, who was third to Pollenator in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster on the second of her two starts, is a top-priced 10-1 fourth best in the market.
The former champion jockey has plumped for the Luca Cumani-trained filly over Music Show, on whom he rode to victory for Mick Channon in the Nell Gwyn Stakes last week. Channon has acted swiftly by booking reigning champion Ryan Moore for the Jaber Abdullah-owned daughter of Noverre.
"Kieren had to make a decision and he told me that he was going to ride Seta," said the West Ilsley trainer.
"Ryan Moore will ride Music Show. I'm happy to have any champion on my horse."
Music Show is second favourite for the fillies' Classic at around 6-1, while Seta, who was third to Pollenator in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster on the second of her two starts, is a top-priced 10-1 fourth best in the market.
"We already knew that if Seta was going to run he would be on it. Can't see much of a price change on Seta but you never know. If he'd broken his agreement with Luca and rode Music Show that would have seen a drift for definate."
Ryan Moore will ride Music Show BTW..
Can't see much of a price change?
Given that there was still a slight chance she wouldn't run, and that Fallon would be on Music Show, was factored into her price, expect her to go off much shorter.
Ryan Moore will ride Music Show BTW..
Can't see much of a price change?
Given that there was still a slight chance she wouldn't run, and that Fallon would be on Music Show, was factored into her price, expect her to go off much shorter.
Between 5-8s on oddschekker stake.
Not a layer generally but if I can lay evens or shorter a place I would be tempted.
Not a layer generally but if I can lay evens or shorter a place I would be tempted.
Price will be dependent on going imo, defo place lay on fast conditions...
I think you need to consider 2 things even if Seta does appear too short.
1) Fallon has chosen her over Music Show. That will not be because of loyalty. It will be because he believes he has a better chance of winning.
2) The field could really cut up, or at least be full of useless rags in the final decs.
Be careful.
1) Fallon has chosen her over Music Show. That will not be because of loyalty. It will be because he believes he has a better chance of winning.
2) The field could really cut up, or at least be full of useless rags in the final decs.
Be careful.
Atasari (IRE) 3 - J S Bolger
Blue Maiden 3 - P J McBride
Devoted To You (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Distinctive 3 - B Smart
Dubai Media (CAN) 3 - D M Simcock
Emulous 3 - D K Weld
Famous (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Gile Na Greine (IRE) 3 - J S Bolger
Gold Bubbles (USA) 3 - J S Bolger
Green Dandy (IRE) 3 - E J O'Neill
Habaayib 3 - E A L Dunlop
Hibaayeb 3 - Saeed Suroor
Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 3 - H R A Cecil
Jira 3 - C E Brittain
Joanna (IRE) 3 - J C Rouget
Lady Darshaan (IRE) 3 - J S Moore
Lady Of The Desert (USA) 3 - B J Meehan
Misheer 3 - C E Brittain
Music Show (IRE) 3 - M R Channon
Nurture (IRE) 3 - R M Beckett
Pipette 3 - A M Balding
Pollenator (IRE) 3 - R Hannon
Puff (IRE) 3 - R M Beckett
Queen Of Troy (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Rumoush (USA) 3 - M P Tregoning
Sent From Heaven (IRE) 3 - B W Hills
Seta 3 - L M Cumani
Special Duty 3 - Mme C Head-Maarek
Tabassum (IRE) 3 - Sir Michael Stoute
You'll Be Mine (USA) 3 - A P O'Brien
30 remaining in at forfeit stage.
Blue Maiden 3 - P J McBride
Devoted To You (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Distinctive 3 - B Smart
Dubai Media (CAN) 3 - D M Simcock
Emulous 3 - D K Weld
Famous (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Gile Na Greine (IRE) 3 - J S Bolger
Gold Bubbles (USA) 3 - J S Bolger
Green Dandy (IRE) 3 - E J O'Neill
Habaayib 3 - E A L Dunlop
Hibaayeb 3 - Saeed Suroor
Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 3 - H R A Cecil
Jira 3 - C E Brittain
Joanna (IRE) 3 - J C Rouget
Lady Darshaan (IRE) 3 - J S Moore
Lady Of The Desert (USA) 3 - B J Meehan
Misheer 3 - C E Brittain
Music Show (IRE) 3 - M R Channon
Nurture (IRE) 3 - R M Beckett
Pipette 3 - A M Balding
Pollenator (IRE) 3 - R Hannon
Puff (IRE) 3 - R M Beckett
Queen Of Troy (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Rumoush (USA) 3 - M P Tregoning
Sent From Heaven (IRE) 3 - B W Hills
Seta 3 - L M Cumani
Special Duty 3 - Mme C Head-Maarek
Tabassum (IRE) 3 - Sir Michael Stoute
You'll Be Mine (USA) 3 - A P O'Brien
30 remaining in at forfeit stage.
Fallon on Seta is an entirely predictable development and her odds being slashed is a massive over-reaction, imo.
Fallon isn't stupid he said he'd be on Cumani's horse if it turned up, he also said there was nothing between Seta and Music Show but that Seta hadn't filled out yet. He was never gonna upset Cumani by riding Channon's because he could be potentially losing out on a lot of great rides through the summer. If he believes there to be not much between them then this way he isn't upsetting the more powerful stable that is likely to have a lot more good horses for the whole year and not just potentially one or two. It's a bit of a no brainer for me with the whole season in mind.
^^^ Absolutely correct.
Le sorcier, your 1) is absolute cobblers
Le sorcier, your 1) is absolute cobblers
Here are the 30 possible runners with their latest Racing Post Rating and a summary of their form and prospects.
Special Duty (117) 2121-3: last years champion juvenile filly; winner of Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin on second start (green, raced keenly, led over a furlong out, ridden out to score by 1½ lengths from top-class colt Siyouni); just edged out close home in the Gr.1 Prix Morny next time (led, driven final furlong, caught last strides); impressive winner of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (made most, ridden when challenged over a furlong out, ran on well inside final furlong) by nearly 3 lengths from Misheer, Lady Of The Desert and Puff; slightly disappointing beaten odds-on favourite on seasonal reappearance in the Gr.3 Prix Imprudence (led, still in front 1½ furlongs out, quickly headed a furlong out, no extra, beaten a length), but needed the race and may have been found out by combination of soft ground, 7f trip and lack of fitness; promises to stay at least 7f on breeding and well suited by fast ground; hard to beat if able to reproduce last seasons form and last out the mile.
Music Show (114) 1101-1: surprise winner of Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes last autumn (ran on strongly to lead close home, by a neck from Atasari and Tabassum); winner of the Nell Gwyn on reappearance (gave 3lbs and a half length beating to the useful Blue Maiden), having to come right round the field to deliver her challenge; goes particularly well at Newmarket and holds sound each-way claims in the Guineas (especially in view of the fact that her trainer thought she would need the race first time out).
Joanna (113) 12113-1: smart filly, won Gr.3 Prix du Calvados and third in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac as a juvenile; showed she had trained on well when winning Gr.3 Prix Imprudence on seasonal return (travelled smoothly, ran on well); intended runner in the Poule dEssai des Pouliches and will reportedly miss the Guineas.
Lady Of The Desert (112) 16113-3: smart 6f filly last year, won Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (in impressive fashion); may have been slightly below her best when third in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (pulled hard, every chance, no extra inside final furlong, beaten 3 lengths); showed trademark turn of foot at Newbury on seasonal return over 7f but failed to get home (possibly needed the race); has prospects of getting a mile, but there are some doubts on that score, and she reportedly goes for the Poule dEssai des Pouliches (will only run in the Guineas if something untoward happens to Music Show).
Hibaayeb (110) 3221-: smart and progressive juvenile, excellent second in Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (every chance, beaten half a length) and won Gr.1 Fillies Mile (short of room, squeezed through to lead entering final furlong, hung left, kept on); purchased by Godolphin during the winter; likely to stay further than a mile (by Singspiel) and may step up to 10f in an Oaks trial rather than run in the Guineas.
Blue Maiden (110) 2125-2: progressive juvenile in first three starts, excellent second in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (slowly into stride, stayed on, beaten a length); well below form on final juvenile start in Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes (weakened final furlong, beaten nearly 8 lengths) after interrupted preparation (injured foot); excellent reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (short of room, lost place, last with 2f to run, stayed on well, beaten ½ length) and appears to have trained on well; very useful filly, reportedly likely to be better with some give in the ground and may miss Guineas in favour of Irish Guineas.
Misheer (109) 112192-4: smart and consistent sprinting juvenile filly; runner-up in Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes, won Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (ran on strongly, went clear) and runner-up to Special Duty in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (outpaced, hung right, stayed on, no chance with winner); shaped like a sprinter when fourth on seasonal return at Newbury over 7f (pulled hard, led, headed approaching final furlong, weakened close home); looks a doubtful stayer on what we have seen so far and will be hard pressed to reverse form with Special Duty.
Puff (109) 14242-1: smart sprinting juvenile filly; progressed from well beaten fourth in Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (outpaced, kept on, beaten nearly 8 lengths) to excellent fourth in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (held up, headway over 2f out, ran on, not reach leaders, beaten nearly 4 lengths); below par on final juvenile start (second in Listed Bosra Sham Stakes); came out best of the Cheveley Park runners on seasonal return in the Fred Darling at Newbury (held up in touch, headway over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, hard driven to take narrow lead final half furlong, held on well); speedily bred (trainer had doubts about her getting 7f at Newbury), so there must be doubts about her getting a mile in the Guineas.
Atasari (109) 6105122-8: showed nothing special in first five starts last term (won Gowran nursery off a mark of 82) but seemed to improve massively on final two starts (second in Listed race over a mile, then excellent second in Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes); ran poorly on reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (weakened and eased final furlong, beaten 11 lengths, needed the race); she was beaten only a neck by Music Show in the Rockfel and would have a chance if returning to her best form.
Habaayib (108) 31128-2: smart and progressive early season juvenile, won Gr.3 Albany Stakes in good style (well on top at finish); reportedly in season when runner-up in Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (chased winner, well held); over the top when tailed off last in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes; returned to form on reappearance at Newbury on first attempt at 7f (quickened inside final furlong, upsides near finish, outpaced close home); not certain to stay a mile and appears to be owners possible third string.
Lady Darshaan (108) 3132-: smart and progressive juvenile, third to Misheer and Habaayib in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (beaten 3½ lengths), later runner-up to Hibaayeb in Gr.1 Fillies Mile (every chance entering final furlong, hit on nose by winning riders whip inside final furlong, carried left, kept on); will need to progress again but has been pleasing her trainer this year.
Tabassum (108) 113-: smart and lightly raced filly, impressive winner (by 4 lengths) of the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes on second start (led 3f out, ridden and hung left from over a furlong out, ran on well); slightly disappointing beaten odds-on favourite on final start in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (broke well, soon led, ridden over a furlong out, headed and no extra final 75 yards, beaten about a length); smallish filly who goes well fresh (final start came too soon for her); reportedly not pleasing on the gallops and may miss the Guineas.
Pollenator (107) 62211-: smart and progressive juvenile, won at fourth attempt in maiden company at Newmarket (ran on well, hung left towards finish, scored by 3¼ lengths), then won Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (slightly hampered when making her run, led last 75 yards) by half a length from Hibaayeb and Seta; goes well on good or faster ground; likely to get further than a mile (by Motivator out of a dam who was placed over 12f) and may be vulnerable to speedier types in the Guineas.
Rumoush (106) 1-1: lightly raced, unbeaten filly with plenty of scope for improvement; half-sister to last years Guineas winner Ghanaati; promising debut win last November in all-weather maiden over a mile (slowly into stride, ridden to challenge over a furlong out, led entering final furlong, ran on well); showed plenty of pace and stamina on seasonal return in Listed Feilden Stakes over 9f (dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, led over a furlong out, edged right, ran on); there are slight doubts about the value of the Feilden form (the runner-up was only rated 83) and the trainer was considering stepping her up (rather than down) in trip, but she clearly goes well at Newmarket and has the scope to develop into a high-class filly.
Youll Be Mine (105) 413-9: shaped like a middle distance performer last year, winning 7f maiden on yielding ground before finishing third in the Gr.1 Fillies Mile (ridden and switched left just inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten 2¼ lengths); very disappointing effort on seasonal return in the Gr.3 Park Express Stakes (ridden 2f out, no impression over a furlong out, weakened final furlong, beaten 11½ lengths); needed the race last time and likely to show considerable improvement next time, but likely to miss the Guineas.
Sent From Heaven (105) 1314-: very useful and consistent filly last year; third in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (slowly into stride, held up, stayed on, beaten 2½ lengths) before landing Gr.3 Prestige Stakes in blanket finish (made all, stayed on, just held on); fourth in Gr.1 Fillies Mile on final start (led, ridden and headed entering final furlong, squeezed out and snatched up inside final furlong, lost third towards finish, beaten nearly 3 lengths); needs to make significant improvement to reverse Ascot form with Hibaayeb and Lady Darshaan.
Devoted To You (104) 3312-2: progressive juvenile, won Galway maiden by 9 lengths (soft/heavy), then finished runner-up to Lillie Langtry in Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (ridden to lead under a furlong out, soon headed by winner, kept on same pace); very promising reappearance in Gr.3 Park Express Stakes over a mile (kept on well under pressure, just failed, beaten a head); yet to race on a fast surface; plenty of scope for improvement and seems likely to be Ballydoyles main Guineas runner.
Famous (104) 241524-0: best performance to date (by far) when runner-up to Termagant in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes on heavy ground (led, ridden halfway, headed 1½ furlongs out, kept on); beaten a long way on her reappearance in the Gr.3 Park Express Stakes (ridden to challenge 2½ furlongs out, no extra over a furlong out, weakened, beaten 14½ lengths); needed the race last time, but on balance of her form looks outclassed.
Green Dandy (103) 2254-: still a maiden after four starts in France, but a very useful one; best effort when fifth in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac (pushed along 2f out, kept on steadily, nearest at finish, beaten nearly 4 lengths); shouldnt be good enough, but is arguably the pick of the big outsiders.
Nurture (103) 5232-: still a maiden after four starts, but very progressive form last year; close third in valuable sales race over a mile in Ireland (stayed on well, not quite reach first two), then beaten a nose by Timepiece (the pair clear) in Listed Montrose Stakes (led narrowly over a furlong out, hard driven, headed well inside final furlong); shapes like a middle distance performer and unlikely to find enough improvement over a mile to get competitive in the Guineas.
Seta (102) 13-: highly regarded filly, made big impression on debut when winning Newmarket 7f maiden by 8 lengths, showing plenty of dash; slightly disappointing (beaten odds-on favourite) next time in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes behind Pollenator and Hibaayeb (tracked leaders, headway to lead 2f out, edged right entering final furlong, driven and edged left, headed and no extra final 75 yards, beaten 1½ lengths); showed a good turn of foot at Doncaster and will benefit from being ridden with more restraint in future; still lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement.
Distinctive (102) 3117-6: impressive winner of Gr.3 Firth of Clyde Stakes over 6f on third start (well drawn, finished very strongly), but below form on final juvenile start in Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (raced keenly, weakened final furlong, beaten 10 lengths); better effort on reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (short of room, switched left, stayed on under pressure, beaten nearly 5 lengths); needs to make plenty of improvement to make an impact in the Guineas.
Gold Bubbles (99) 123466-: best effort last year in Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (fourth, beaten 2¼ lengths), but beaten a long way on last two starts (sixth in Gr.2 Lowther, beaten 16 lengths, and sixth in Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, beaten 19 lengths); looks very exposed and well below Guineas standard.
Pipette (98) 13-1: stepped up on winning debut to finish close third in Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury (stayed on at the finish, just failed to take second); won conditions race over a mile at Kempton on seasonal return (quickened to lead approaching final furlong, pushed along, readily); goes well on soft ground, yet to race on a fast surface; shapes as though she will get further than a mile (related to several middle distance performers); reportedly will miss the Guineas unless there is some give in the ground.
Jira (96) 417148435-46: useful early season 6f juvenile, winning Listed Empress Stakes (narrowly), finishing fourth in Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and later fourth in Listed Dick Poole Stakes; limitations exposed several times, most recently in valuable 10f sales race at Newmarket (beaten 9 lengths); outclassed.
Queen Of Troy (93) 821647-73: well beaten in several Listed/Gr.3 events since winning minor 5f race at Dundalk last year; best effort when fourth to Lady Springbank in Gr.3 CL Weld Park Stakes; open to improvement on good or faster ground (has only raced once on such a surface), but outclassed on all known form.
Jacqueline Quest (91) 217-7: looked a smart prospect on her first two starts as a juvenile (runner-up to the useful Queens Grace in a Newbury maiden, then won Chester maiden easily by 9 lengths), but ran poorly on soft ground on final start in Listed Radley Stakes (weakened final furlong, beaten 13 lengths); well beaten on seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn (led halfway, headed over a furlong out, weakened, beaten 8 lengths); although shes bred to get at least a mile and won over 7f as a juvenile, she has shaped in her two most recent starts like a sprinter, and her form is well short of Guineas standard.
Gile Na Greine (84) 15-2: highly regarded filly, full sister to Cuis Ghaire, won 7f Curragh race (soft/heavy) on debut, but well below form in boggy ground two weeks later in Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes; runner-up on reappearance over a mile at Dundalk (beaten for pace final furlong); has a lot to prove, but likely to improve significantly on fast ground.
Emulous (80) 1-: won Curragh 7f maiden on soft ground (led 1½f out, ridden and strongly pressed, kept on well); the runner-up was beaten again subsequently and the form looks nothing special; very highly regarded filly, reportedly quite likely to be kept for the Irish Guineas.
Dubai Media (77) 74-5: lightly raced maiden, showed promise over 7f at Newmarket recently behind Eldalil (hampered over a furlong out, short of room inside final furlong, ran on), but officially rated only 73 and completely outclassed.
CONCLUSION
At the time of writing, Lady Of The Desert, Joanna and Tabassum are reportedly very doubtful runners. Of Aidan OBriens entries, Youll Be Mine, Famous and Queen Of Troy are thought to be less likely to run than Devoted To You. Blue Maiden and Pipette would prefer some give in the ground and may not run if the ground is riding on the fast side.
An open-looking race, with a number of fillies that showed smart form in the top two-year-old races last year. Special Dutys victory in the Cheveley Park Stakes represents arguably the best form, but her defeat in the Prix Imprudence raised questions about whether she would be ready for this and whether she will get the mile (on breeding she should get the trip). Music Show proved in the Nell Gwyn that she had trained on well, should improve for the run, goes well on the track and must hold sound claims. Atasari was only beaten a neck by Music Show last year and would come into the reckoning if able to recapture her Rockfel form, but she ran poorly on her seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn (needed the race) and has a lot to prove now. There is not much to choose between Pollenator, Hibaayeb, Seta and Lady Darshaan on last years May Hill and Fillies Mile form: Seta is the least experienced of the four and showed a good turn of foot at Doncaster, which could enable her to reverse May Hill placings with the first two (if ridden with more restraint). Misheer shapes like a sprinter, has had her limitations exposed and will be hard pressed to reverse Cheveley Park form with Special Duty. Puff did well to win the Fred Darling at Newbury, but her trainer has doubts about the mile trip, and similar comments apply to Habaayib, narrowly beaten by Puff at Newbury. Devoted To You ran well on her seasonal reappearance (at a time when the OBrien horses were badly needing the run) but will need to find plenty of improvement. Rumoush needs to step up considerably on the bare form of her comfortable Feilden Stakes victory but is open to considerable improvement and should cope fine with the drop back in distance to a mile.
Special Duty is the likeliest winner, provided she stays the mile and finds the necessary 7lbs or so improvement from her Imprudence run: on breeding she should get the trip, but she has so much speed that there must be some doubts about her stamina, although she is reportedly much more relaxed this year and she will probably be held up off the pace to give her the best possible chance of getting the trip. Music Show and Seta are both highly respected and look sure to go well, although there may be some worries for Seta backers if the ground becomes really firm. Rumoush is being thrown in at the deep end and might just find everything happening too quickly for her. Pollenator, Hibaayeb and Lady Darshaan will have their supporters, but all look a bit short of speed to win a Guineas. Puff, Habaayib and Misheer look doubtful stayers. Devoted To You is the most interesting of the Ballydoyle contingent and could run well at a big price.
Special Duty (117) 2121-3: last years champion juvenile filly; winner of Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin on second start (green, raced keenly, led over a furlong out, ridden out to score by 1½ lengths from top-class colt Siyouni); just edged out close home in the Gr.1 Prix Morny next time (led, driven final furlong, caught last strides); impressive winner of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (made most, ridden when challenged over a furlong out, ran on well inside final furlong) by nearly 3 lengths from Misheer, Lady Of The Desert and Puff; slightly disappointing beaten odds-on favourite on seasonal reappearance in the Gr.3 Prix Imprudence (led, still in front 1½ furlongs out, quickly headed a furlong out, no extra, beaten a length), but needed the race and may have been found out by combination of soft ground, 7f trip and lack of fitness; promises to stay at least 7f on breeding and well suited by fast ground; hard to beat if able to reproduce last seasons form and last out the mile.
Music Show (114) 1101-1: surprise winner of Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes last autumn (ran on strongly to lead close home, by a neck from Atasari and Tabassum); winner of the Nell Gwyn on reappearance (gave 3lbs and a half length beating to the useful Blue Maiden), having to come right round the field to deliver her challenge; goes particularly well at Newmarket and holds sound each-way claims in the Guineas (especially in view of the fact that her trainer thought she would need the race first time out).
Joanna (113) 12113-1: smart filly, won Gr.3 Prix du Calvados and third in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac as a juvenile; showed she had trained on well when winning Gr.3 Prix Imprudence on seasonal return (travelled smoothly, ran on well); intended runner in the Poule dEssai des Pouliches and will reportedly miss the Guineas.
Lady Of The Desert (112) 16113-3: smart 6f filly last year, won Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (in impressive fashion); may have been slightly below her best when third in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (pulled hard, every chance, no extra inside final furlong, beaten 3 lengths); showed trademark turn of foot at Newbury on seasonal return over 7f but failed to get home (possibly needed the race); has prospects of getting a mile, but there are some doubts on that score, and she reportedly goes for the Poule dEssai des Pouliches (will only run in the Guineas if something untoward happens to Music Show).
Hibaayeb (110) 3221-: smart and progressive juvenile, excellent second in Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (every chance, beaten half a length) and won Gr.1 Fillies Mile (short of room, squeezed through to lead entering final furlong, hung left, kept on); purchased by Godolphin during the winter; likely to stay further than a mile (by Singspiel) and may step up to 10f in an Oaks trial rather than run in the Guineas.
Blue Maiden (110) 2125-2: progressive juvenile in first three starts, excellent second in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (slowly into stride, stayed on, beaten a length); well below form on final juvenile start in Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes (weakened final furlong, beaten nearly 8 lengths) after interrupted preparation (injured foot); excellent reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (short of room, lost place, last with 2f to run, stayed on well, beaten ½ length) and appears to have trained on well; very useful filly, reportedly likely to be better with some give in the ground and may miss Guineas in favour of Irish Guineas.
Misheer (109) 112192-4: smart and consistent sprinting juvenile filly; runner-up in Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes, won Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (ran on strongly, went clear) and runner-up to Special Duty in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (outpaced, hung right, stayed on, no chance with winner); shaped like a sprinter when fourth on seasonal return at Newbury over 7f (pulled hard, led, headed approaching final furlong, weakened close home); looks a doubtful stayer on what we have seen so far and will be hard pressed to reverse form with Special Duty.
Puff (109) 14242-1: smart sprinting juvenile filly; progressed from well beaten fourth in Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (outpaced, kept on, beaten nearly 8 lengths) to excellent fourth in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (held up, headway over 2f out, ran on, not reach leaders, beaten nearly 4 lengths); below par on final juvenile start (second in Listed Bosra Sham Stakes); came out best of the Cheveley Park runners on seasonal return in the Fred Darling at Newbury (held up in touch, headway over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, hard driven to take narrow lead final half furlong, held on well); speedily bred (trainer had doubts about her getting 7f at Newbury), so there must be doubts about her getting a mile in the Guineas.
Atasari (109) 6105122-8: showed nothing special in first five starts last term (won Gowran nursery off a mark of 82) but seemed to improve massively on final two starts (second in Listed race over a mile, then excellent second in Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes); ran poorly on reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (weakened and eased final furlong, beaten 11 lengths, needed the race); she was beaten only a neck by Music Show in the Rockfel and would have a chance if returning to her best form.
Habaayib (108) 31128-2: smart and progressive early season juvenile, won Gr.3 Albany Stakes in good style (well on top at finish); reportedly in season when runner-up in Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (chased winner, well held); over the top when tailed off last in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes; returned to form on reappearance at Newbury on first attempt at 7f (quickened inside final furlong, upsides near finish, outpaced close home); not certain to stay a mile and appears to be owners possible third string.
Lady Darshaan (108) 3132-: smart and progressive juvenile, third to Misheer and Habaayib in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (beaten 3½ lengths), later runner-up to Hibaayeb in Gr.1 Fillies Mile (every chance entering final furlong, hit on nose by winning riders whip inside final furlong, carried left, kept on); will need to progress again but has been pleasing her trainer this year.
Tabassum (108) 113-: smart and lightly raced filly, impressive winner (by 4 lengths) of the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes on second start (led 3f out, ridden and hung left from over a furlong out, ran on well); slightly disappointing beaten odds-on favourite on final start in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (broke well, soon led, ridden over a furlong out, headed and no extra final 75 yards, beaten about a length); smallish filly who goes well fresh (final start came too soon for her); reportedly not pleasing on the gallops and may miss the Guineas.
Pollenator (107) 62211-: smart and progressive juvenile, won at fourth attempt in maiden company at Newmarket (ran on well, hung left towards finish, scored by 3¼ lengths), then won Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (slightly hampered when making her run, led last 75 yards) by half a length from Hibaayeb and Seta; goes well on good or faster ground; likely to get further than a mile (by Motivator out of a dam who was placed over 12f) and may be vulnerable to speedier types in the Guineas.
Rumoush (106) 1-1: lightly raced, unbeaten filly with plenty of scope for improvement; half-sister to last years Guineas winner Ghanaati; promising debut win last November in all-weather maiden over a mile (slowly into stride, ridden to challenge over a furlong out, led entering final furlong, ran on well); showed plenty of pace and stamina on seasonal return in Listed Feilden Stakes over 9f (dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, led over a furlong out, edged right, ran on); there are slight doubts about the value of the Feilden form (the runner-up was only rated 83) and the trainer was considering stepping her up (rather than down) in trip, but she clearly goes well at Newmarket and has the scope to develop into a high-class filly.
Youll Be Mine (105) 413-9: shaped like a middle distance performer last year, winning 7f maiden on yielding ground before finishing third in the Gr.1 Fillies Mile (ridden and switched left just inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten 2¼ lengths); very disappointing effort on seasonal return in the Gr.3 Park Express Stakes (ridden 2f out, no impression over a furlong out, weakened final furlong, beaten 11½ lengths); needed the race last time and likely to show considerable improvement next time, but likely to miss the Guineas.
Sent From Heaven (105) 1314-: very useful and consistent filly last year; third in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (slowly into stride, held up, stayed on, beaten 2½ lengths) before landing Gr.3 Prestige Stakes in blanket finish (made all, stayed on, just held on); fourth in Gr.1 Fillies Mile on final start (led, ridden and headed entering final furlong, squeezed out and snatched up inside final furlong, lost third towards finish, beaten nearly 3 lengths); needs to make significant improvement to reverse Ascot form with Hibaayeb and Lady Darshaan.
Devoted To You (104) 3312-2: progressive juvenile, won Galway maiden by 9 lengths (soft/heavy), then finished runner-up to Lillie Langtry in Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (ridden to lead under a furlong out, soon headed by winner, kept on same pace); very promising reappearance in Gr.3 Park Express Stakes over a mile (kept on well under pressure, just failed, beaten a head); yet to race on a fast surface; plenty of scope for improvement and seems likely to be Ballydoyles main Guineas runner.
Famous (104) 241524-0: best performance to date (by far) when runner-up to Termagant in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes on heavy ground (led, ridden halfway, headed 1½ furlongs out, kept on); beaten a long way on her reappearance in the Gr.3 Park Express Stakes (ridden to challenge 2½ furlongs out, no extra over a furlong out, weakened, beaten 14½ lengths); needed the race last time, but on balance of her form looks outclassed.
Green Dandy (103) 2254-: still a maiden after four starts in France, but a very useful one; best effort when fifth in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac (pushed along 2f out, kept on steadily, nearest at finish, beaten nearly 4 lengths); shouldnt be good enough, but is arguably the pick of the big outsiders.
Nurture (103) 5232-: still a maiden after four starts, but very progressive form last year; close third in valuable sales race over a mile in Ireland (stayed on well, not quite reach first two), then beaten a nose by Timepiece (the pair clear) in Listed Montrose Stakes (led narrowly over a furlong out, hard driven, headed well inside final furlong); shapes like a middle distance performer and unlikely to find enough improvement over a mile to get competitive in the Guineas.
Seta (102) 13-: highly regarded filly, made big impression on debut when winning Newmarket 7f maiden by 8 lengths, showing plenty of dash; slightly disappointing (beaten odds-on favourite) next time in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes behind Pollenator and Hibaayeb (tracked leaders, headway to lead 2f out, edged right entering final furlong, driven and edged left, headed and no extra final 75 yards, beaten 1½ lengths); showed a good turn of foot at Doncaster and will benefit from being ridden with more restraint in future; still lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement.
Distinctive (102) 3117-6: impressive winner of Gr.3 Firth of Clyde Stakes over 6f on third start (well drawn, finished very strongly), but below form on final juvenile start in Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (raced keenly, weakened final furlong, beaten 10 lengths); better effort on reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (short of room, switched left, stayed on under pressure, beaten nearly 5 lengths); needs to make plenty of improvement to make an impact in the Guineas.
Gold Bubbles (99) 123466-: best effort last year in Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (fourth, beaten 2¼ lengths), but beaten a long way on last two starts (sixth in Gr.2 Lowther, beaten 16 lengths, and sixth in Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, beaten 19 lengths); looks very exposed and well below Guineas standard.
Pipette (98) 13-1: stepped up on winning debut to finish close third in Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury (stayed on at the finish, just failed to take second); won conditions race over a mile at Kempton on seasonal return (quickened to lead approaching final furlong, pushed along, readily); goes well on soft ground, yet to race on a fast surface; shapes as though she will get further than a mile (related to several middle distance performers); reportedly will miss the Guineas unless there is some give in the ground.
Jira (96) 417148435-46: useful early season 6f juvenile, winning Listed Empress Stakes (narrowly), finishing fourth in Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and later fourth in Listed Dick Poole Stakes; limitations exposed several times, most recently in valuable 10f sales race at Newmarket (beaten 9 lengths); outclassed.
Queen Of Troy (93) 821647-73: well beaten in several Listed/Gr.3 events since winning minor 5f race at Dundalk last year; best effort when fourth to Lady Springbank in Gr.3 CL Weld Park Stakes; open to improvement on good or faster ground (has only raced once on such a surface), but outclassed on all known form.
Jacqueline Quest (91) 217-7: looked a smart prospect on her first two starts as a juvenile (runner-up to the useful Queens Grace in a Newbury maiden, then won Chester maiden easily by 9 lengths), but ran poorly on soft ground on final start in Listed Radley Stakes (weakened final furlong, beaten 13 lengths); well beaten on seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn (led halfway, headed over a furlong out, weakened, beaten 8 lengths); although shes bred to get at least a mile and won over 7f as a juvenile, she has shaped in her two most recent starts like a sprinter, and her form is well short of Guineas standard.
Gile Na Greine (84) 15-2: highly regarded filly, full sister to Cuis Ghaire, won 7f Curragh race (soft/heavy) on debut, but well below form in boggy ground two weeks later in Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes; runner-up on reappearance over a mile at Dundalk (beaten for pace final furlong); has a lot to prove, but likely to improve significantly on fast ground.
Emulous (80) 1-: won Curragh 7f maiden on soft ground (led 1½f out, ridden and strongly pressed, kept on well); the runner-up was beaten again subsequently and the form looks nothing special; very highly regarded filly, reportedly quite likely to be kept for the Irish Guineas.
Dubai Media (77) 74-5: lightly raced maiden, showed promise over 7f at Newmarket recently behind Eldalil (hampered over a furlong out, short of room inside final furlong, ran on), but officially rated only 73 and completely outclassed.
CONCLUSION
At the time of writing, Lady Of The Desert, Joanna and Tabassum are reportedly very doubtful runners. Of Aidan OBriens entries, Youll Be Mine, Famous and Queen Of Troy are thought to be less likely to run than Devoted To You. Blue Maiden and Pipette would prefer some give in the ground and may not run if the ground is riding on the fast side.
An open-looking race, with a number of fillies that showed smart form in the top two-year-old races last year. Special Dutys victory in the Cheveley Park Stakes represents arguably the best form, but her defeat in the Prix Imprudence raised questions about whether she would be ready for this and whether she will get the mile (on breeding she should get the trip). Music Show proved in the Nell Gwyn that she had trained on well, should improve for the run, goes well on the track and must hold sound claims. Atasari was only beaten a neck by Music Show last year and would come into the reckoning if able to recapture her Rockfel form, but she ran poorly on her seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn (needed the race) and has a lot to prove now. There is not much to choose between Pollenator, Hibaayeb, Seta and Lady Darshaan on last years May Hill and Fillies Mile form: Seta is the least experienced of the four and showed a good turn of foot at Doncaster, which could enable her to reverse May Hill placings with the first two (if ridden with more restraint). Misheer shapes like a sprinter, has had her limitations exposed and will be hard pressed to reverse Cheveley Park form with Special Duty. Puff did well to win the Fred Darling at Newbury, but her trainer has doubts about the mile trip, and similar comments apply to Habaayib, narrowly beaten by Puff at Newbury. Devoted To You ran well on her seasonal reappearance (at a time when the OBrien horses were badly needing the run) but will need to find plenty of improvement. Rumoush needs to step up considerably on the bare form of her comfortable Feilden Stakes victory but is open to considerable improvement and should cope fine with the drop back in distance to a mile.
Special Duty is the likeliest winner, provided she stays the mile and finds the necessary 7lbs or so improvement from her Imprudence run: on breeding she should get the trip, but she has so much speed that there must be some doubts about her stamina, although she is reportedly much more relaxed this year and she will probably be held up off the pace to give her the best possible chance of getting the trip. Music Show and Seta are both highly respected and look sure to go well, although there may be some worries for Seta backers if the ground becomes really firm. Rumoush is being thrown in at the deep end and might just find everything happening too quickly for her. Pollenator, Hibaayeb and Lady Darshaan will have their supporters, but all look a bit short of speed to win a Guineas. Puff, Habaayib and Misheer look doubtful stayers. Devoted To You is the most interesting of the Ballydoyle contingent and could run well at a big price.
Correction to earlier post: You'll Be Mine and Famous ran in the Gr.3 Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial last time out (not in the Gr.3 Park Express Stakes).
James P a cracking read
Agree with most things accept, i don't feel they will ride special duty with restraint, she only has one way of running and for me her chances will be far less, if ridden with restraint as she will just pull the riders arms out and lose all chance. If they had this in there minds she would of been held up on her reappearance so for me she will be up in the van and it will be catch me if you can.
Agree with most things accept, i don't feel they will ride special duty with restraint, she only has one way of running and for me her chances will be far less, if ridden with restraint as she will just pull the riders arms out and lose all chance. If they had this in there minds she would of been held up on her reappearance so for me she will be up in the van and it will be catch me if you can.
Criquette said in a recent interview on ATR that Special Duty is much more amenable to restraint this year - she has been able to settle in behind other horses in her work this year, whereas last year the stable didn't have a colt fast enough to lead her. If Stephane Pasquier is able to get her to relax he will settle her in behind horses, but if she refuses to settle he will have no choice but to let her run.
James i do respect you as a judge but if you think the filly can win dropped in you are a lesser judge than i thought.
Add to which the interview you are talking about was before her run in the imprudence.
I'm just reporting what the trainer said (admittedly before the Imprudence). The jockey had little option in the Imprudence, with the small field and potential difficulty of trying to make up a few lengths in very soft ground. My guess is that in the Guineas (with the likely strong pace) Pasquier will aim to drop her in just behind the leaders, but if there's not a strong pace or the filly fails to relax he will quickly take her to the front.
Pollenator for me. Got checked about 5 times at Donny but still won, strong pace will play into her hands, Hannon has had a good start to the season, can get them ready FTO. 14/1 seems a decent price, considering IMO she would have beaten Seta and Hibaayeb by further with a clear run.
Pollenator does still appear to be reasonable value compared with Seta. Everyone backing Seta is hoping that it didn't run it's race when they met last but there is no guarantee of that. Seta's bare form isn't great IMO. She could still be anything but she could also only be as good as her last run.
Personally, I'm in no doubt at all that Seta ran below her best last time in the May Hill. The race came at a time when she was still growing and consequently rather weak - she came to win the race comfortably and then lost her action. She's almost certainly much better than that.
Anyone on here fancy Hibaayeb for the Guineas? I know that the Godolphin horses are running OK at the moment and that Hibaayeb is an intended runner, but some of these price changes are a bit drastic: 16 from 25 (L), 16 from 33 (T, VC), 20 from 25 (WH). Bearing in mind that Godolphin have been in two minds whether to run her in the Guineas or step her up in trip in an Oaks trial, I really don't fancy her chances in the Guineas - she surely won't have enough pace.
jamesp i am not looking for confrontation, especially with you but, i can't get my head round, why a maiden winner runs below it's best when just getting touched off in a group 2, it surely must have improved a bundle from its' first run. just asking. cheers.
i see the filly Evading Tempette, who just touched off Special Duty is entered for the Coronation Stakes at Ascot, it must be highly thought of. cheers.
Does that mean all the other 2 year olds Seta raced against had finished growing then?
I'm not a fan of horses that are tipped to reverse form for whatever reason when not in handicaps and their respective weights don't play a part. I don't like it cos I'm not a fan of guessing. For the most part I like to back the horse that won last time out because they tend to be better value and just as often as the previous form is reversed the previous form is franked. A recent example of this would be Khyber Kim and Zaynar. I'd love to see some stats on this but it'd be really hard to track, in my experience I've found that sticking with the form/value works quite well in these situations.
I'm not a fan of horses that are tipped to reverse form for whatever reason when not in handicaps and their respective weights don't play a part. I don't like it cos I'm not a fan of guessing. For the most part I like to back the horse that won last time out because they tend to be better value and just as often as the previous form is reversed the previous form is franked. A recent example of this would be Khyber Kim and Zaynar. I'd love to see some stats on this but it'd be really hard to track, in my experience I've found that sticking with the form/value works quite well in these situations.
I'm having **ney Rebel' feelings about Lady Darshaan
Improved with each run at 2 and price kept high by unfashionable trainer.
Placed at Group 1 level (Some say unlucky not to win) over a mile.
She may lack the turn of foot or touch of class to win this but 33s is a nice price I reckon. (I may well top up on course if the price holds :) )
**ney Rebel was available at the same price in the week before the race and went off @ 25s
I'm hoping for a similar result :)
Improved with each run at 2 and price kept high by unfashionable trainer.
Placed at Group 1 level (Some say unlucky not to win) over a mile.
She may lack the turn of foot or touch of class to win this but 33s is a nice price I reckon. (I may well top up on course if the price holds :) )
**ney Rebel was available at the same price in the week before the race and went off @ 25s
I'm hoping for a similar result :)
Just like to add that reading the above back that it looks somewhat sarcastic/pompous. Not looking for an arguement James you are an excellent poster and have some really interesting angles on this race. Also you deserve real credit for getting on Special Duty so early as you did, I wish I'd picked your threads up earlier.
Just trying to express my opinion. ;)
Just trying to express my opinion. ;)
Your worries are unfounded, cruise - it's good when people have different points of view, that's what makes the sport so interesting. Going back to my earlier post where I voiced the opinion that Seta 'ran below her best', what I mean to say is that the filly is almost certainly capable of significantly better than her finishing position suggests. Like you, I am generally sceptical when people claim that this horse or that horse should reverse placings, but in this particular case both Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon are adamant that we did not see the best of Seta in the May Hill. Fallon claims that the filly lost her action once she had cruised into the lead and he asked her to go away from the others. One can never be certain about these things, but I will be surprised if Seta does not turn out to be significantly better than Pollenator and Hibaayeb over a mile (although the Guineas will probably be the only time they will race against each other over the trip this year).
Can you recall Setas action from her debut?
I thought she looked awkward/ungainly despite romping home seemed to have a leg in suffolk & another in cambridgeshire.
Whether that was just pure inexperience/greeness im not usre but certainly looked strange.
Just with Cumani saying shes going to be better @ 4 just wondering whether shes had the experience needed?
I thought she looked awkward/ungainly despite romping home seemed to have a leg in suffolk & another in cambridgeshire.
Whether that was just pure inexperience/greeness im not usre but certainly looked strange.
Just with Cumani saying shes going to be better @ 4 just wondering whether shes had the experience needed?
I though last season that Seta would be the best filly over a mile for 2010. If she has strengthened up and matured, she will be a right proper horse.
Out of the fillies over here that is. I'm still hopeful on special Duty.
Devoted To You
Nice form boost in Navan listed race today.
Nice form boost in Navan listed race today.
It looks like it's going to be a fairly dry week although there has been some surprise rain today in East Anglia - don't know if it has hit Newmarket but bucketing down where I am right now, close to Cambridge.
If the Rowley Mile is quick, would Seta want that, being a Pivotal filly? Merely asking the question. I recall how ill as ease Rainbow View was last year...
If the Rowley Mile is quick, would Seta want that, being a Pivotal filly? Merely asking the question. I recall how ill as ease Rainbow View was last year...
Hopefully it has rained there..which will stop him from watering(some hope).
If the forecast is right, Seta will be longer on the day... LMC says she won't act on fast ground(as does her May Hill effort)...
But I'm not sure she 's that good anyway...Folk getting carried away with her connections imo.
If the forecast is right, Seta will be longer on the day... LMC says she won't act on fast ground(as does her May Hill effort)...
But I'm not sure she 's that good anyway...Folk getting carried away with her connections imo.
I read that the clerk at HQ had already started watering! I am dubious that he will let the Guineas start on fast ground, - expect good, or softer if it rains on watered ground.
Sir 25 Apr 17:39
Tabassum is the in or out please?
Well it was 27 this morning and is now 16 so I would presume it is in. From the betting I would say it's Hills chosen mount though I could be wrong.
Tabassum is the in or out please?
Well it was 27 this morning and is now 16 so I would presume it is in. From the betting I would say it's Hills chosen mount though I could be wrong.
Can't see it drifting like that for no reason. Non runner in my book.
according to stoute it was highly unlikeky to be a runner
on another thread, somebody mentioned that Makfi had a chance in the 2000 guineas, this horse did a slightly slower time than Special Duty in their respective trials. good going, ever hopeful. cheers.
bound to be good ground wont be rock hard like last yr had a good shower 2day some forecast in the week plus mr prossar watering. I feel Seta will win the guineas if she is able to stay up with the strong early pace bound to come special duty. Fallon needs to take the sting out of SD speed track the strong pace kick on 2 n a half furlongs out building momentum into the dip will take a good 1 to beat her if this happens. SD wont be able to maintain the constant speed she shows over a stiff mile but i see her class giving her 2nd place at least
5122-8 Atasari (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Bolger
2125-2 Blue Maiden 3 9-0 P J McBride
3312-2 Devoted To You (IRE) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien
3110-6 Distinctive 3 9-0 B Smart
41524-0 Famous (IRE) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien
15-2 Gile Na Greine (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Bolger
123466- Gold Bubbles (USA) 3 9-0 J S Bolger
31120-2 Habaayib 9-0 E A L Dunlop
3221- Hibaayeb 3 9-0 Saeed Suroor
210-0 Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 3 9-0 H R A Cecil
0435-46 Jira 3 9-0 C E Brittain
3132- Lady Darshaan (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Moore
12102-4 Misheer 3 9-0 C E Brittain
1101-1 Music Show (IRE) 3 9-0 M R Channon
5232- Nurture (IRE) 3 9-0 R M Beckett
13-1 Pipette 3 9-0 A M Balding
62211- Pollenator (IRE) 3 9-0 R Hannon
14242-1 Puff (IRE) 3 9-0 R M Beckett
1-1 Rumoush (USA) 3 9-0 M P Tregoning
1314- Sent From Heaven (IRE) 3 9-0 B W Hills
13- Seta 3 9-0 L M Cumani
2121-3 Special Duty 3 9-0 Mme C Head-Maarek
413-0 You'll Be Mine (USA) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien
2125-2 Blue Maiden 3 9-0 P J McBride
3312-2 Devoted To You (IRE) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien
3110-6 Distinctive 3 9-0 B Smart
41524-0 Famous (IRE) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien
15-2 Gile Na Greine (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Bolger
123466- Gold Bubbles (USA) 3 9-0 J S Bolger
31120-2 Habaayib 9-0 E A L Dunlop
3221- Hibaayeb 3 9-0 Saeed Suroor
210-0 Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 3 9-0 H R A Cecil
0435-46 Jira 3 9-0 C E Brittain
3132- Lady Darshaan (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Moore
12102-4 Misheer 3 9-0 C E Brittain
1101-1 Music Show (IRE) 3 9-0 M R Channon
5232- Nurture (IRE) 3 9-0 R M Beckett
13-1 Pipette 3 9-0 A M Balding
62211- Pollenator (IRE) 3 9-0 R Hannon
14242-1 Puff (IRE) 3 9-0 R M Beckett
1-1 Rumoush (USA) 3 9-0 M P Tregoning
1314- Sent From Heaven (IRE) 3 9-0 B W Hills
13- Seta 3 9-0 L M Cumani
2121-3 Special Duty 3 9-0 Mme C Head-Maarek
413-0 You'll Be Mine (USA) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien
I reckon we'll probably have about 16 runners. I expect Aidan O'Brien will only run one or two, Jim Bolger will probably only run one, Pipette and Blue Maiden won't run unless there is some ease in the ground.
Does Head- Maarek's form with first time out runners this year - 0 winners in last 3 weeks - suggest Special Duty actually ran really well in a tough race on bad ground or that her horses are behind and she will not be ready. My view is the fome.
Ran an excellent gallop at the weekend according to Lord G
Special Duty, the 7-2 favoruite with the sponsors for the StanJames.com 1000 Guineas, was today reported to be bang on target for Sunday's fillies' classic.
The filly has already tasted success at Newmarket, having stormed to an impressive defeat of Misheer in the Group One Electrolux Cheveley Park Stakes in October.
She finished third on her seasonal reappearance at Maisons-Laffitte on April 8 but her trainer Criquette Head-Maarek is no stranger to 1000 Guineas success, having saddled Ma Biche (1983), Ravinella (1988) and Hatoof (1992) to victory.
Lord Grimthorpe, racing manager to Special Dutys owner Khalid Abdulla, said today:
The filly has already tasted success at Newmarket, having stormed to an impressive defeat of Misheer in the Group One Electrolux Cheveley Park Stakes in October.
She finished third on her seasonal reappearance at Maisons-Laffitte on April 8 but her trainer Criquette Head-Maarek is no stranger to 1000 Guineas success, having saddled Ma Biche (1983), Ravinella (1988) and Hatoof (1992) to victory.
Lord Grimthorpe, racing manager to Special Dutys owner Khalid Abdulla, said today:
if you look at Maarek-Heads runners this season nearly all of them have been 40/1 shots or bigger, not really expected to win, are they. cheers.
So who is actually going next Sunday? Me and the Mrs are going Premier enclosure with a seat for the first and last time for this. I'm not sure we'll fit in though ;).
I may still venture over to place a few bets with Barry Dennis purely cos I am so up with him at Newmarket, although that's largely due to Music Show in the Rockfel at 33s (a good omen to back with him again IMO). I have never been more excited for a race meeting before because of an antepost bet. I know it's an open race but I feel stupidly confident. Just hope they all get there safe and sound now.
I may still venture over to place a few bets with Barry Dennis purely cos I am so up with him at Newmarket, although that's largely due to Music Show in the Rockfel at 33s (a good omen to back with him again IMO). I have never been more excited for a race meeting before because of an antepost bet. I know it's an open race but I feel stupidly confident. Just hope they all get there safe and sound now.
"The ground is a big worry for me. If it doesn't rain by the end of the week I could be in trouble"
K Fallon
K Fallon
I will be there, only sunday this year and i definitely wont bet with Mr D (another story best not mentioned), love the guineas meeting, shame about having to dodge the drunks though. Hoping for a very SPECIAL result ;)
lol to be honest I usually don't bet with him cos you normally have to queue, it's just when I have I've done alright. Also at times the value is a little bit further down going away from the prem enclosure. Can't wait to get there again though, I'm quite liking the rest of the card too. I think Jonny Mudball looks a progressive type at what should be a good price in the race after the guineas. Can't wait!
8 of the last 20 1000 winners won a Gr1 as 2yo's. 3 were placed.
5 others won a Gr2. Of the 4 others Virginia Water won a Gr3 trial in Ireland just before the 1000, Wince won the Fred Darling.Ameerat easily beat Seyadah in her maiden then was snatched up on soft ground behind her in the Rockfel Gr2.That leaves Ghanaati who didn't run until Sept as a 2yo then won her maiden in october. Came into the race due to probable hold ups as a dark horse which is very unusual for the winner of this race.Conclusion.....Special Duty is the Gr 1 filly, is bred to get a mile on both sides. Criquette,s loser of this race Pas de Reponse was by Danzig who throws up a high proportion of sprinters.The dangers are Music show who won the Rockfel and the Nell Gwynn but do Channon's horses always run to form? Pollenator the May Hill winner and Hibaayeb the Fillies Mile winner. The latter 2 look as though a mile might be a little quick for them as 3yo's. Seta is a talking horse and Rumoush does't look good enough only winning an average Listed race.
5 others won a Gr2. Of the 4 others Virginia Water won a Gr3 trial in Ireland just before the 1000, Wince won the Fred Darling.Ameerat easily beat Seyadah in her maiden then was snatched up on soft ground behind her in the Rockfel Gr2.That leaves Ghanaati who didn't run until Sept as a 2yo then won her maiden in october. Came into the race due to probable hold ups as a dark horse which is very unusual for the winner of this race.Conclusion.....Special Duty is the Gr 1 filly, is bred to get a mile on both sides. Criquette,s loser of this race Pas de Reponse was by Danzig who throws up a high proportion of sprinters.The dangers are Music show who won the Rockfel and the Nell Gwynn but do Channon's horses always run to form? Pollenator the May Hill winner and Hibaayeb the Fillies Mile winner. The latter 2 look as though a mile might be a little quick for them as 3yo's. Seta is a talking horse and Rumoush does't look good enough only winning an average Listed race.
so u dont share the stamina doubts about special duty?
sire hennessy ran over a mile 1. dam was by distant view out of a nureyev mare so i guess you could say a mile should be ideal. certainly way she was running on at the end of the cheveley park was encouraging, could be another natagora, helpful to be up there out of trouble in the guineas with so many inexperienced fillies.
Thats right, Hennessey sired Johannesberg,Hernry hughes,Grand Armeeand and Sunrise Bachus who all won at 8 or 9 furlongs as 2yo's.
Her dam by Distant View begat Observatory who beat Giants causeway over a mile at 3, other 2yo mile winners Sightseek, Distant way, and Summer View, the list goes on and on.
Her dam by Distant View begat Observatory who beat Giants causeway over a mile at 3, other 2yo mile winners Sightseek, Distant way, and Summer View, the list goes on and on.
trial, that's what i like to hear, and with confidence, i may sleep a little better tonight, cheers.
From memory at least half of those horses didn't win as a 3 year old though did they? ;)
Winner at Chantilly today for Head Maarek with Skyteam second time out. Ran at same meeting as Special Duty on April 8th. Horses needing a run ? Right week to start coming into a bit of form.
Poor old Johannesberg was burnt out at 3 after 7 wins at two inc the 9f breeders cup,Henry Hughes won a Gr1 at 3, Grand Armee won 2 Gr1's at 3, Half hennessey won a Gr1 over 12f at 3,Sunrise Bacchus won a Gr1 at 4 over 8f. then those by Distant View Special Duty's dames sire, Observatory won the QE2 over a mile at 3.Siteseek won
4 Gr1's at 3. and Summer View won at 8f at 3.
4 Gr1's at 3. and Summer View won at 8f at 3.
cruise d, I've said before I'm with you on Music Show but do you really need to be going back in at around 6s when you've already had 33s or 40s or whatever? It may sound a bit boring but wouldn't a saver on Special Duty be a more sensible option at this point? Obviously, it's your call, good luck mate and here's hoping MS does the business.
Atasari, Gold Bubbles, Famous and You'll Be Mine have all been declared non-runners by their trainers, leaving a maximum field of 19 (final declarations tomorrow morning). Waiting to hear whether any of the following are intended starters: Distinctive, Habaayib, Jacqueline Quest, Jira, Pipette, Sent From Heaven.
Richie you are probably right. However if she looks right, I get the same impression I did from her last October and the ground is OK I can see myself having a few quid on her on the day as well. Wouldn't be much but just enough to then maybe roll any potential winnings over in to the Pretty Polly on the Gosden runner if she looks well.
I've always been all eggs in one basket type of gambler, it's just my way. Believe me I've trawled the form over and over again for weeks trying to convince myself to back a few others as a saver but I just can't get any confidence in anything else. Seta will be a superstar if she wins and I will be in awe of people that got huge prices on her but I just can't see her staying, Seta is too short as is Rumoush IMO and the one I was considering backing Pollenator has shortened so much that I just can't back her now.
I've always been all eggs in one basket type of gambler, it's just my way. Believe me I've trawled the form over and over again for weeks trying to convince myself to back a few others as a saver but I just can't get any confidence in anything else. Seta will be a superstar if she wins and I will be in awe of people that got huge prices on her but I just can't see her staying, Seta is too short as is Rumoush IMO and the one I was considering backing Pollenator has shortened so much that I just can't back her now.
^ I would agree with that summary cruise d, am in the same boat, did like Pollenator over Hibaayeb as a saver, but not now at the price. (presume you meant Special Duty not Seta will be a superstar...* ).
If it rains and turns the going to g/s or worse does Seta go off favourite
Well spotted Downstaller, yes I meant Special Duty. Must be getting senile!
i would agree Special Duty is the one they all gotta beat, top class form and im a backer.
Would Fallon have had the choice between Music Show and Seta? Not that his replacement jockey is a worry.
He did have the choice as such but has a verbal agreement to ride for Cumani this season whenever possible. Given the length of the season and the likely winners and class horses Cumani has Fallon was never gonna get off Seta. Fallon said along that if Cumani had a runner he'd be on it. He did also say that there was nothing to choose between Seta and Music Show which I'm sure is the case however he was never gonna talk down the chances of a horse that he was likely to be riding in a classic at that stage.
18 confirmed runners. No surprises among the defectors: Atasari, Gold Bubbles, Famous, You'll Be Mine, Jira. I was expecting Pipette to be an absentee on account of the fast ground, but with some rain forecast in the next 48 hours she will presumably take her chance.
1 (14) 2125-2 Blue Maiden 16 3 9-0 Jamie Spencer
P. J. Mcbride
2 (5) 3312-2 Devoted To You (IRE) 40 3 9-0 Johnny Murtagh
A. P. O'Brien, Ireland
3 (7) 3117-6 Distinctive 16 3 9-0 Tom Eaves
B. Smart
4 (2) 15-2 Gile Na Greine (IRE) 21 3 9-0 K. J. Manning
J. S. Bolger, Ireland
5 (3) 31128-2 Habaayib 13 3 9-0 Tadhg O'Shea
E. A. L. Dunlop
6 (13) 3221- Hibaayeb 216 D1 3 9-0 Frankie Dettori
Saeed Bin Suroor
7 (4) 217-7 Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 16 3 9-0 Tom Queally
H. R. A. Cecil
8 (8) 3132- Lady Darshaan (IRE) 216 3 9-0 William Buick
J. S. Moore
9 (17) 112192-4 Misheer 13 3 9-0 Neil Callan
C. E. Brittain
10 (15) 1101-1 Music Show (IRE) 16 C2 3 9-0 Ryan Moore
M. R. Channon
11 (12) 5232- Nurture (IRE) 181 3 9-0 George Baker
R. M. Beckett
12 (10) 13-1 Pipette 27 D1 3 9-0 Jimmy Fortune
A. M. Balding
13 (16) 62211- Pollenator (IRE) 231 D1 3 9-0 Richard Hughes
R. Hannon
14 (11) 14242-1 Puff (IRE) 13 3 9-0 Jim Crowley
R. M. Beckett
15 (18) 1-1 Rumoush (USA) 16 C1 D1 3 9-0 Richard Hills
M. P. Tregoning
16 (6) 1314- Sent From Heaven (IRE) 216 3 9-0 Michael Hills
B. W. Hills
17 (9) 13- Seta 231 3 9-0 Kieren Fallon
L. M. Cumani
18 (1) 2121-3 Special Duty 22 C1 3 9-0 Stephane Pasquier
Mme C. Head-maarek, France
P. J. Mcbride
2 (5) 3312-2 Devoted To You (IRE) 40 3 9-0 Johnny Murtagh
A. P. O'Brien, Ireland
3 (7) 3117-6 Distinctive 16 3 9-0 Tom Eaves
B. Smart
4 (2) 15-2 Gile Na Greine (IRE) 21 3 9-0 K. J. Manning
J. S. Bolger, Ireland
5 (3) 31128-2 Habaayib 13 3 9-0 Tadhg O'Shea
E. A. L. Dunlop
6 (13) 3221- Hibaayeb 216 D1 3 9-0 Frankie Dettori
Saeed Bin Suroor
7 (4) 217-7 Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 16 3 9-0 Tom Queally
H. R. A. Cecil
8 (8) 3132- Lady Darshaan (IRE) 216 3 9-0 William Buick
J. S. Moore
9 (17) 112192-4 Misheer 13 3 9-0 Neil Callan
C. E. Brittain
10 (15) 1101-1 Music Show (IRE) 16 C2 3 9-0 Ryan Moore
M. R. Channon
11 (12) 5232- Nurture (IRE) 181 3 9-0 George Baker
R. M. Beckett
12 (10) 13-1 Pipette 27 D1 3 9-0 Jimmy Fortune
A. M. Balding
13 (16) 62211- Pollenator (IRE) 231 D1 3 9-0 Richard Hughes
R. Hannon
14 (11) 14242-1 Puff (IRE) 13 3 9-0 Jim Crowley
R. M. Beckett
15 (18) 1-1 Rumoush (USA) 16 C1 D1 3 9-0 Richard Hills
M. P. Tregoning
16 (6) 1314- Sent From Heaven (IRE) 216 3 9-0 Michael Hills
B. W. Hills
17 (9) 13- Seta 231 3 9-0 Kieren Fallon
L. M. Cumani
18 (1) 2121-3 Special Duty 22 C1 3 9-0 Stephane Pasquier
Mme C. Head-maarek, France
I'm really happy with Music Show's draw there. The pace will probably come from Misheer and being drawn high looks to be an advantage. I'm not sure 1 is the best for Special Duty though.
There seems to be plenty of pace among the low numbers: apart from Special Duty (1), who may be held up just off the pace, Jacqueline Quest (4) and Sent From Heaven (6) are likely to be prominent.
cruise d, fair play mate, it's your call! I just think Music Show and Special Duty are by far the most likely winners so as you'd got yourself into a great trading position you might want to hedge your bets a little. MS is still my main play anyway so here's hoping...
Looks like a fair bit of rain Saturday night/Sunday morning.
The only time Music Show has been beaten was on ground with give in it, not looking too good with all the rain forecast for Sunday.
The forecast that matters(John Kettley's) means it will be G/F (GOOD IN PLACES) Saturday.
Good (g/f in places) Sunday.
Good (g/f in places) Sunday.
Devoted to You
Still overpriced at 25/1.
No problem with soft ground or trip.
Decent prep run.
With the right stable.
Still overpriced at 25/1.
No problem with soft ground or trip.
Decent prep run.
With the right stable.
just put money on at 27 el apache and was about to post the same as you. surely an O'Brien 1st string wont be going off at that price?
also has some good form behind her. have backed Pollenator already but am happy to have devoted to you running at that price for me
also has some good form behind her. have backed Pollenator already but am happy to have devoted to you running at that price for me
Course Newmarket
Next Race Saturday 1st May
Report Date Saturday 1st May; 08:15
Going Good to Firm
GoingStick 8.7
Additional Information 3mm of rain from 4pm on Friday, Stalls: Stand Side Course 1000 Guineas and 12f Handicap centre. Remainder Stand side
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Bright and dry am with showers pm
Sunday: Rain overnight which will clear away mid morning 10mm
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
Next Race Saturday 1st May
Report Date Saturday 1st May; 08:15
Going Good to Firm
GoingStick 8.7
Additional Information 3mm of rain from 4pm on Friday, Stalls: Stand Side Course 1000 Guineas and 12f Handicap centre. Remainder Stand side
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Bright and dry am with showers pm
Sunday: Rain overnight which will clear away mid morning 10mm
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
Backed Devoted To You and Lady Darshaan EW with slybet who are paying four places. Small stakes as a jumps man.
The bookies will probably play on the misconception of seta needing cut. She doesn't need it, and would prefer good ground from what i've read.
have you not read into what King Kieran has said? How about the sire - have you read into the sire?? Pivitol's usually need a cut in the ground. Come on, the way she travelled when she finished 3rd, just looked she was a bit weak, still a big baby. If the rumours are true that she has wintered well and that the ground is right up her street. Right jockey, right trainer, has the form on the course, Seta at 5/1 is a cracking each way bet. You could trade out in running too..
Just about to set off for the Rowley Mile now.
Good luck all. I really hope mine and the likes of Special Duty run their race.
I'll try and get on when I get back if I'm not too sozzled.
Good luck all. I really hope mine and the likes of Special Duty run their race.
I'll try and get on when I get back if I'm not too sozzled.
Well done James SP a great result.
I feel absolutely gutted about Music Show. Clearly the ground was better on the stands side rail as the results showed. Nobody is mentioning it but Music Show beat all of them on her side and was really unlucky.
This is what Channon had to say:-
"What can you say? Music Show won her race on the far side, but that's no consolation," Channon said.
"On form with [Jacqueline Quest] and [fifth] Distinctive, they might have improved massively since the Nell Gwyn, we might have regressed, but I'm not having that. They've beaten us from a low draw and it was the draw that has meant we were well out of it from a long way out.
It's just one of those things and while I'd never say we would have definitely won, it's blatantly obvious that the draw favoured those on the stand side. You can't track across from so wide a draw in a Classic, that would be suicide."
He added on his website: "Ryan [Moore] was gutted, I'm gutted, but that's racing. It's nobody's fault, just our bloody luck.
"I'll tell you one thing though, I'd still have our filly over anything else in the race. It's a long season and I just want to take them all on again to see which filly is the best about because ours will take some beating."
I feel absolutely gutted about Music Show. Clearly the ground was better on the stands side rail as the results showed. Nobody is mentioning it but Music Show beat all of them on her side and was really unlucky.
This is what Channon had to say:-
"What can you say? Music Show won her race on the far side, but that's no consolation," Channon said.
"On form with [Jacqueline Quest] and [fifth] Distinctive, they might have improved massively since the Nell Gwyn, we might have regressed, but I'm not having that. They've beaten us from a low draw and it was the draw that has meant we were well out of it from a long way out.
It's just one of those things and while I'd never say we would have definitely won, it's blatantly obvious that the draw favoured those on the stand side. You can't track across from so wide a draw in a Classic, that would be suicide."
He added on his website: "Ryan [Moore] was gutted, I'm gutted, but that's racing. It's nobody's fault, just our bloody luck.
"I'll tell you one thing though, I'd still have our filly over anything else in the race. It's a long season and I just want to take them all on again to see which filly is the best about because ours will take some beating."
I agree that those drawn high had no chance (Channel 4's side-on camera showed that the high-drawn fillies were several lengths behind at one stage) and that Music Show ran a blinder. A very unsatisfactory race and I feel particularly sorry for Jacqueline Quest's owner Noel Martin: if Tom Queally had pulled his whip through to his right hand the result might have been different (we'll never know).
It was the same in every race where draw bias could come into it too. In the race before hand Honimere nearly stole it by running slone on the rail. The sprint after was won from stall 5 with 8 and 5 in 2nd and 3rd, also on one runner drawn high got into the top 8 (Genki ran a blinder to get 4th from 25). The maiden was won from stall 1 as well.
The more I think about it the worse I feel. The horses that finished in the top 5 in the guineas were rated as follows on their previous form.......
1st Special Duty 117 drawn in stall 1
2nd Jaqueline Quest 97 (upsides we'll say was the distance) stall 4
3rd Gile Na Greine 88 (a head down on special duty) stall 2
4th Sent From Heaven 105 (half a length off the 3rd) stall 6
5th Distinctive 102 (a further 5 lengths back) stall 5
6th Music Show 110 (3 quartes of a length back) stall 15
The proximety of some pretty ordinary horses to the winner yesterday means that either they all improved massively at the same time which is unlikely or that it was a below par guineas. I believe that Music Show had the beating of the field yesterday and that is hard to take when she would have been the biggest winner of my life by some way. She has already beaten Jaqueline Quest and Distinction easily in the Nell Gwynn easily whilst giving them weight.
At least it goes some way proving what I have been saying for the last month in that the race was a better form guide than it appeared to be on face value and that those trying to under rate it did so at their peril.
The more I think about it the worse I feel. The horses that finished in the top 5 in the guineas were rated as follows on their previous form.......
1st Special Duty 117 drawn in stall 1
2nd Jaqueline Quest 97 (upsides we'll say was the distance) stall 4
3rd Gile Na Greine 88 (a head down on special duty) stall 2
4th Sent From Heaven 105 (half a length off the 3rd) stall 6
5th Distinctive 102 (a further 5 lengths back) stall 5
6th Music Show 110 (3 quartes of a length back) stall 15
The proximety of some pretty ordinary horses to the winner yesterday means that either they all improved massively at the same time which is unlikely or that it was a below par guineas. I believe that Music Show had the beating of the field yesterday and that is hard to take when she would have been the biggest winner of my life by some way. She has already beaten Jaqueline Quest and Distinction easily in the Nell Gwynn easily whilst giving them weight.
At least it goes some way proving what I have been saying for the last month in that the race was a better form guide than it appeared to be on face value and that those trying to under rate it did so at their peril.
cruise d Joined: 15 Sep 04
Replies: 213 03 May 10 10:05
I believe that Music Show had the beating of the field yesterday and that is hard to take when she would have been the biggest winner of my life by some way. She has already beaten Jaqueline Quest and Distinction easily in the Nell Gwynn easily whilst giving them weight.
At least it goes some way proving what I have been saying for the last month in that the race was a better form guide than it appeared to be on face value and that those trying to under rate it did so at their peril.
Dyna Watlz has now beaten the really well regarded Timepeice in an Oaks trial and Sfina has won albeit a maiden. I'm still stewing over the Guineas[;)].
Replies: 213 03 May 10 10:05
I believe that Music Show had the beating of the field yesterday and that is hard to take when she would have been the biggest winner of my life by some way. She has already beaten Jaqueline Quest and Distinction easily in the Nell Gwynn easily whilst giving them weight.
At least it goes some way proving what I have been saying for the last month in that the race was a better form guide than it appeared to be on face value and that those trying to under rate it did so at their peril.
Dyna Watlz has now beaten the really well regarded Timepeice in an Oaks trial and Sfina has won albeit a maiden. I'm still stewing over the Guineas[;)].
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