Has the weight trend been blew out the water now?

Dawn FRENCH

Agrees

:)

On good ground and with a compressed handicap its clear a reasonable weight can now be carried to success. Id say it might be different in a genuine soft ground National

I am not a fan of these "trends" at all. I saw Craig Thake had to state in his column yesterday that the French bred trend had had to be ruled out as it had become unreliable or words to that effect. If you spot or read a trend like the one about no more than 12lbs higher than the lowest weight ot no more carried that 11 stones 1 lb etc etc, its okay to consider it but sensibly you have to understand why such a trend exists. The sensible stuff above on this thread about how the behaviour of the handicapper has broken the trend is a bit after timing .
My own view is that the best horse at the weights in a particualr race will win most races and that this applies to the National just as much as any race. What is unique about the national though, is the effect tha weight has. An extra 5lbs weight is worth more in distance at the finish in the national than any other horse race. This is because the trip is extreme and because the fences are so big it takes out more energy from a horse.

In the past I am unconvinced that the handicapper has taken this on board at all, with the weights, albeit a bit compressed, still based largely on 3 mile handicap form. The has made weight concession very hard and favoured the lower weighted horses - hence the long terms trend.