Horse Antepost
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14/1 for this one is way to big and I can see it going of around 8s tomorow.
Heres the thing. This is an ultra competative race with the front 5 in the betting filling 1st 2nd 3rd 4th and 6th in the welsh national.
Our boy was 5th that day and even though he has a turnaround in the weights of 10lbs with D A, 8lbs SBN and 9lbs LBB that wouldnt get him the 20L he needed to be on tem that day.
That said there is one big difference tomo. That race was over 4M and even after hitting the 3rd last Bally was still within 10L of the leader comming till the last and IMO didnt get home.
I feel that Twiston Davis was worried that he might not get home and for the reason sat him in the middle of the pack to try and get the trip. I doubt he will have any worries about tomorows trip and I think he will be allowed to take up the lead early.
LTO he made only 2 mistakes jumping better than we have seen for a while.
Out the front on very testing ground of a nice weight and jumping aswell as last time I cant see him out of the 3. That said unless he makes 3 mistakes I cant see him not winning.
GL
Heres the thing. This is an ultra competative race with the front 5 in the betting filling 1st 2nd 3rd 4th and 6th in the welsh national.
Our boy was 5th that day and even though he has a turnaround in the weights of 10lbs with D A, 8lbs SBN and 9lbs LBB that wouldnt get him the 20L he needed to be on tem that day.
That said there is one big difference tomo. That race was over 4M and even after hitting the 3rd last Bally was still within 10L of the leader comming till the last and IMO didnt get home.
I feel that Twiston Davis was worried that he might not get home and for the reason sat him in the middle of the pack to try and get the trip. I doubt he will have any worries about tomorows trip and I think he will be allowed to take up the lead early.
LTO he made only 2 mistakes jumping better than we have seen for a while.
Out the front on very testing ground of a nice weight and jumping aswell as last time I cant see him out of the 3. That said unless he makes 3 mistakes I cant see him not winning.
GL
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It is no doubt a talented horse however one of those that makes too many mistakes.
True one day it will pop up at 33/1 but wait for smaller field less competitive stuff than this to get involved! |
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Thought Welsh Nat was over 3 Miles 5F?
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WN is 3m5.5 f
Jumping would be a big worry for me. In a small field over fences he can get away with it but in a 15 runner field I dunno. Mind you the fences at Haydock are not that testing now so who knows. |
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Would love to see him win, I have a TTF list with him in that's on the leader board at the moment, and a Ballyfitz win would probably get me into the top 50 or so.
But he's going to lose a couple of lengths a fence to Our Vic, and I don't think you can get away with that in this kind of ground. Jumping a major concern for me with this horse. |
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Sorry guys ment 3m5f, I feel he was bang there till the last Lto and it was his best jumping performance yet. bar one bad mistake mid race and the 3rd last pwck he jumped rally well imo.
If he can be handy and get a clear sight at his fences I have a feeling he could go round blemish free. If so i think he wins, up to 3 mistakes he places any more and hes done for. |
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by the way I actually put another post up saying the reason I put this up today is I have a feeling he might be prizewised tomo and its not been added??
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Can see it going off 8's!!!!!!!!!! I can see it unseating
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The weight Pull this horse has is definitely enough to turn the form around imo. It is a slog over 3m's +. It's just his jumping that's the concern. But you have a decent price so worth a poke. gl Abbott.
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my 2 quid is on
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had a few quid to Win actually because of the weight pull.
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Think it should be in the frame, and would love to see it win.
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cant see it being 8s now. really though there would have been confidence behidn him today.
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3.35 - We run both Ballyfitz (Paddy Brennan) and Hello Bud (Sam Twiston-Davies). Ballyfitz put up a good performance to be 5th in the Welsh National, staying on quite well towards the end on ground that was probably softer than even he enjoys! Today's slightly faster ground should help him and he has a strong each way chance. Hello Bud would probably prefer better ground but todays ground shouldn't inconvenience him and he still retains the ability to be more than competitive. Possible each way hopes too at long odds.
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Big chance if he jumps well,but will he??
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Im happy to think he will. As said above his last run was his best round of jumping yet and bar 1 bad mistake mid race and the 3rd last he was perfect for the rest.
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well 8s on the tv thats the first bit right and hes up in a good position :)
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bloody fences :(
thats some winner |
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Yeah, who'd have predicted there would be fences to jump eh? You just can't legislate for that can you?
Thought Ballyfitz jumped much the best he has all season actually, until that one bad blunder. Might turn out to be a blessing because he wouldn't have beaten the winner today but might have messed up his handicap without the mistake by being a clear second. There's still every chance he could pop up at a big price somewhere, but he's running out of time this season. Has tended to go better at Cheltenham than anywhere else though, so might have a fair chance in the WH, especially if he gets a couple of pounds off his mark for today. And he just might, because I think Our Vic will be the benchmark today. As I've been saying all week, Our Vic was a cracking EW bet, can't understand his odds at all. What a round of jumping he put in. If he could teach Ballyfitz to jump NTD might have to run 2 in the Gold Cup. |
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I love Ballyfitz & NTD
on the 13/3/2008 If you were at Cheltenham at the time, you would had heard 2 bald feckers going absolutely mental when he beat the favourite that day. I know the horse inside out, the horse is bred to win a top class chase over 3m4f+, but he doesn't not jump well enough. He may on one day jump well enough to be their in a finish over chases. But horses don't always follow the guide, his best chance will be the pertemps sadly. Roger the music man & jenny mould are great owners. |
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Surely Jenny Mould died several years ago ?
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Charrrrrrgggggeeeee! :)
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Good bet not to get round ! Imo
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so the all say, heard it all before though. Last Suspect for instance....
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Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer: "He has made the odd mistake, but we have done a lot of intensive schooling with him."
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Look everyone here has him. If he wins the national we should have an antepost day out. 66/1 is just too much imo.
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