St Nicholas Abbey

I thought that was quite satisfactory.travelled nicely

Terry Venables 21 Mar 18:07
Interested in a couple here, Cape Blanco & Fencing Master

i thought age of aquarius worked well in that group,although cant get to carried away

I spent the 20 mins freezing my bum off at the Curragh.

First of all St Nicholas Abbey was the most relaxed off the bunch other than Rip Van Winkle. He was foaming from the mouth but that is usual as they were all at it. He looked well and i from the big screen he seemed to do plenty well enough but you can comment better than that on me as i was a long way away.

The very first horse in his bunch was**ers....was kicking out and causing all sorts of trouble and St Nick was very very composed.

As for the others its hard to tell they all looked fit and well but nothing really stood out.

I was at the gate when Jonny came in on Cape Blanco and said "He's some horse"

From the ATR point of view what did Gary say?

Nufing!!!!!!!!!!

:)

CAPE BLANCO, was reported to stay on without quickening by one pundit. how did you see things JM/JM?

I saw JohnM geting really serious with him but he picked up and did it well in the end.

That ground would not suit him and it would be pretty worn after 7 races over it.

As i said Johnny was happy with that and bullish.

thanks for that JM/JM, i have him for both guineas and derby along with SNA, was feeling a little less hopeful after reading one report of the gallop on here.

Well Johnny riding that of all the horse's is a clue in its self i would have imagined.

Rip van Winkle also looked very well...and is very similar to St Nick. They curl their head inwards when they walk around the paddock. Only 2 horses to do that which i think shows their fantastic tempremant

I saw it on ATR (didnt know they were going to show it).

Thanks for comments, ATR said something said in here already by someone that's it's a day out and shows they've four legs and a tail.

He touched 5/2 briefly this afternoon in here and now gone near 11/4 again but has been 3s and over.

So we'll wait, at least we'll know he's wintered OK.

SNA is very short for both classics,he's hardly going to repeat the feat of STS is he?would he not be more suited to the Derby?

why can he not repeat that feat?

Sometimes very good horses do come along at the same time,just because we had STS last year does not mean SNA cant be as good this year.Look back and you will see its happened many times.

Nijinsky
Mill Reef

oh so sharp
dancing brave

it would be great to see if it did happen

Zarkava
Sea the Stars

mr sykes,yes it would be great,I too think the Derby for SNA but I also think he has the speed and class to win the Guineas on the way!

2nd in both the Guineas and Derby.

To what then Kirk?

1m2f will be his trip and he will prefer a bit of cut. Looks a weak year outside the leading contenders for the Guineas but can see Canford Cliffs beating him for toe off a fast pace.

Am also looking forward to seeing Kingsfort he is a true miler imo though we wont know how Godolphin have done with him probably until the day.

Kirk: what about Arcano, already beaten CC?

Kirk,I dont think CC will stay the mile at HQ esp'in the Guineas,with a horse who stays the mile and has a clear turn of foot,Kingsfort well as hes Godolphins I cant really see him doing anything till later in the year.But as you think he is a miler then he may thrash the mighty Steinbeck in a soft GR1............only time will tell.

It isnt ability that is preventing them running Steinbeck.

Hope it backfires and they pay the price and think Canford Cliffs will take him out on quickish ground. The Derby it is early days and as we saw with Celtic Swing there are likely to be quite a few in contention when that extra half mile needs getting.

St Nicholas Abbey looked good yesterday. I was at Donny for the RP Trophy and even since then he seems to have grown and filled out a fair bit. He's a beautiful looking 3YO colt.

For me he'll be very hard to beat in the Guineas.

Kirk,I did back fire on them last year with Steinbeck,you see Footsteps'with his first runners needed a talking horse,so Aidan talks up S'beck with the birds in the trees c,rap,runs him early he wins but at the same time buggers himself up ..............so they have to wait ages the season was almost over a run at HQ a forth in a below ave'Dewhurst,as ive said before he is a puff of nothing and I think time will show us this,they are not running him at NMKT because they know SNA will whip his god damn ass but they can set the Irish up for him.

soldieroffortune
Its good to hear the news of St Nicholas' progress. I remember thinking years ago that when you wait for ages to get a great horse, and last year we obviously got one - the first maybe since Dubai Millenium - you then get another quickly afterwards.
The Racing post Trophy was the best 2yo race of the season, the form through the second from the Acomb stakes looked very strong (looked even stronger after Vale Of York won at the Breeders cup.)
St Nicholas Abbey had no easy task at doncaster. But he absolutely thrashed a quality field and won with apparently plenty in hand. I am still holding a bet for him winning the triple crown ( As Sea The Stars should have done), and given that the connections have little else that they haven't achieved so far, I reckon if he did the first 2 legs he would be a very likely contender and a very short price to do the job for me.
As far as I can see, St Nicholas Abbey has the credentials to be a great horse.

RISH DERBY LOOKS A BETTER TARGET THAN EPSOM FOR ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

I don't often have cause to praise a big bookmaker, but I think Ladbrokes deserve a good deal of credit for not pricing up ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (38) in their 2000 Guineas betting after his impressive win in the Racing Post Trophy. They clearly share my view that it would be misleading and unethical to make what is an obvious non runner a short priced favourite in an ante-post market.

If you have any doubt that St Nicholas Abbey won't line up at Newmarket consider these two stats: First, Aidan O'Brien's Racing Post Trophy runners have gone on to contest 14 Group 1's over a mile or less at three without once reaching the first four. They've done so 22 times out of 45 at longer distances. Second, so far 24 horses older than two sired by St Nicholas Abbey's sire Montjeu have tried to win a Group 1 over less than ten and a half furlongs. They all failed.

St Nicholas Abbey was certainly impressive. He sat last all the way until the sprint for home began off a slowish early gallop three furlongs out. He then picked up the leaders and quickened clear, totally dominating his rivals and simply running away from them in the final furlong.

For me the interesting question about St Nicholas Abbey is not the frankly silly speculation that he might run in the Guineas but whether or not he will handle Epsom.

The obvious concern about St Nicholas Abbey in regards to Epsom is that big, raking stride of his. We got the chance to see it properly for the first time at Doncaster thanks to the sprint finish. Watching this run you do have to wonder how well he's going to come around Tattenham Corner.

The other concern is that, like a lot of Monteju's, St Nicholas Abbey may need a bit of juice in the ground to produce his best at three. This is not often forthcoming at Epsom and is more likely at the Curragh. Add to this the easier, more galloping nature of the Curragh and I'm inclined to think that the Classic St Nicholas Abbey is most likely to win is the Irish Derby rather than the one at Epsom.

I had to invoke my sectional timing formula to give St Nicholas Abbey a proper speed rating. But even taking his strong finish into account leaves this run a length per mile off what he achieved off a stronger early pace in the Beresford Stakes last time. This is another indication that a greater test of stamina will bring out the best in the horse.

It should be noted that St Nicholas Abbey is closely related to Ballingarry and Aristotle (later re-named Our Aristotle). Both these horses won Group 1's at two over long trips and looked terrific prospects. But although they both performed well at three neither were Champions or anything like. So it could well be that St Nicholas Abbey will prove to be just another two year old that makes less than average physical improvement over the Winter and fails to be as dominant at three as he was as a juvenile.

All that said, this was a terrific performance, as was St Nicholas Abbey's previous one in the Beresford Stakes. He'll deserve his place at the top of the Free Handicap.

Glad I saw this. Laying the conkers off this one.

Authorized and Motivator, and last years Derby 2nd, all sired by Montjeu, Epsom should not be a problem.

The criticism around Epsom has nothing to do with Montjeu, it is to do with his stride.

Shark12 29 Mar 20:51
Montjeu - Search period 01/01/2004 to 29/03/2010

3yo stats only

5f - 0/2 0%
6f - 0/11 0%
7f - 3/37 8%
8f - 9/131 7%
9f - 12/83 14%
10f - 55/403 14%
11f - 14/104 13%
12f - 66/387 17%

Ive mentioned this before but for this reason alone I cant have SNA at 5/2 or 2/1...no value whatsoever.

Sweet Baby Jesus. Very glad I saw this too!

Great, i am on Jan Vermeer .

GL Storm!

:)

Thanks, they will probably send him for the French version knowing my luck :p

Montjeu's Group 1 winners over 12 furlongs:

Scorpion
Hurricane Run x 2
Frozen Fire
Fame & Glory
Authorized
Motivator
Montmatre

Not much dross there!!!

What about Grp 1 winners over 1m2f ? ( Are there any ) ?

Authorized (Juddmonte International) but thats it im afraid according to the software im using.

Got plenty of Grp 1 winners over 1 mile, but they are all 2yos.

Authorized
Motivator
SNA
Jan Vermeer

His only Group 1 winners at 2.

Galileo also has 4 Group 1 wins to his name courtesy of Teofilo and New Approach.

Authorized should have won 2 group 1's over 1m 2f if Frankie would have walked the course at Sandown for The Eclipse like Ryan Moore didbefore winning on Notnowcato

Juddmonte is 10 1/2f.

I have a lot of respect for Nick Mordin's reports, but on the question of St Nicholas Abbey (written in his October 2009 report, quoted above) I believe he was fundamentally mistaken. For a start, he was adamant that SNA would not run in the Guineas. We now know that the horse is being aimed at the Guineas and that at this stage there is a good likelihood that he will turn up at Newmarket on 1 May with a favourite's chance. Secondly, it's no secret that after his Beresford Stakes win SNA was being touted by his connections as a Derby prospect - the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial was mentioned as a likely early target this season. There was certainly no talk of the Guineas at that stage. But his performance in the Racing Post Trophy changed everything. He showed such impressive speed and acceleration at Doncaster that Aidan knew he had a potential Guineas/Derby winner on his hands.

It doesn't surprise me, looking at his pedigree, that SNA has the speed to win a Guineas: after all, his dam (who never raced) was bred to be a smart miler, and although Montjeu does have an exceptional record with top-class middle distance performers he does also get winners over all sorts of distances. In fact, there must be a slight doubt whether SNA will get the full Derby trip (especially at the Curragh). His full sister stayed 10f but not 12f. I don't rule out the possibility that SNA may get beaten in the Guineas by a horse with greater speed and an even better turn of foot, but at this stage he appears to be much the likeliest winner. As far as the Derby is concerned, I saw nothing at Doncaster to suggest that he would have problems at Epsom. Really firm ground could be a problem, and he may not last out the final two furlongs, but I don't see why he shouldn't handle the track.

SNA is entered in the Dante. Is this a precaution in case AOB comes to his senses and realises he won't win the 2000 Guineas?

oh mich you seem to know little about aiden & his entry approach.

Michrich 31 Mar 20:34
SNA is entered in the Dante. Is this a precaution in case AOB comes to his senses and realises he won't win the 2000 Guineas?

You dont know how Coolmore/Ballydoyle work do you ,I cant see what will beat him at HQ.

I know money is no object and they just cover all bases, I was being flippant.

OK I understand,Regardless of what people say,if he runs at NMKT he will win,then Coolmore/Ballydoyle will do the TC.

Regardless of what people say, if he runs at Newmarket he will not win.

Oh wont he!dont ell me Canford Cliffs then

*tell*

I have no idea who will win but I am betting SNA won't.

Then if I were you id change my bet,open your eyes and ears,this year will be a great one.

Any Ballydoyle news on Midas Touch? Have backed him for Derby at 25s as caught my eye last season

Sorry no,not one of the early sorts.

ok cheers

Corre Caminos won 2006 Prix Ganay Longchamp 1m 2f 110yds. Hurricane Run won 2006 Tattersalls Gold Cup Curragh 1m 2f 110yds. Both sons of Montjeu.

Whats that all about WDW?

im with you charlton, wont win guineas

what point are you making?

Good stuff EJ.

;)

my arse.

You make a good case Mich but I think I'll stick with my plan.

Sorry, you make a good case Prima...

Im a SNA doubter too.

Simply cant have him at the current prices. Montjeu simply does not have a good enough record with milers at 3yo to be backing a 9/4-2/1 shot in the first Classic of the season.

Incidentally he also has a terrible strike rate with his runners at Newmarket...dunno why but i'll throw that into the pot too :)

5/1 + maybe, 8/1 (ala Sea the Stars) definitely, 9/4-2/1 no thank you.

just wondering after someone mention sna with entry for dante, has a coolmore ever sent a top class performer for this trial,

Charlton earlier in thread it was said Montjeu had several Group 1 winners over 8f and 12 f, but only had Authroised as a Group 1 winner at 10f, but the other two both won over 10f, or to be precise 22 yards further than Authroized.

I think the point that Shark was making when he posted those figures was that over a mile at 3 Montjeu could not produce a G1 winner. In fact he could only produce one at 10f. And what you have said doesn't change that

:)

Elis they tend to send Derby 2nd /3rd strings for the Dante certainly not their main hope as far as I can recall.
With regards to the earlier poster re Midas Touch he worked after racing @ the Curragh in the
St Nicholas Abbey group & travelled really well on the outside(orange cap) finishing upsides Fame & Glory & Age Of Aquarius

Septimus and Frozen Fire both went for it EJ although it's arguable either were top class.

Geoff, mind if I ask how you are playing the 2000?

downallstar 22 Mar 12:21
Cape Blanco for me.
SNA is a lay.
Will give reasons later.


Stand by this.

Down :)

Charlton not a problem for me. I'm not with SNA. His price is too short still 5 weeks from the race with only gallops to go on. Plus the last English 2-y-o Group 1 winner to win the Guineas was Rock of Gibraltar in 2002, and the last Racing Post winner to win the Guineas, I can remember, was High Top in 1972.

GL WDW, looks like we're both against him

:)

Hi Charlton after seeing SNA in his 1st 2 runs id marked him down as a Derby horse as hed been given 2 nice easy runs over a mile without being woken up by Murtagh & when he turned up prior to the R.Post trophy I was still convinced he was a derby horse in the making & probably wouldnt have the sharpness /experience for the GNS.
What we saw in the R.P trophy changed all that.
It was the manner in which
a) Murtagh rode him like he was on a machine
b) When he pressed the button how quickly he went from lengths down to in front pulling away.

It was the short space of time & the ease it was accomplished that impressed & gave the impression he could have delivered that performance over 7 furlongs

Whilst the others may well be stayers & not milers they had all won on their previous outing & only a top class horse can leave others for dead that quickly.

As there has been a fair bit of ease in the ground on all his runs his only achilles heel imo is reproducing that performance on quick ground in the gns.

As mainly a layer I still have him well onside but for financial reasons theres 1/2 a dozen more id like to see beat him but I cant see it happening.

Actually outsiders I like @ big prices are his stable companions Beethoven & Alfred Nobel not quite got the class but battle hardened & on their day can run a far better race than their price suggests altho you never know if they are both going to run or French 2000 may be an option

jamesp

your analysis is identical to mine. He has more than enough speed and a decent cruising speed too. He will be hard to beat.
I also agree with your assessment of his pedigree too. Although he may well get 12 furlongs he isn't actually certain to do so. He does seem to be blessed though with an ability to switch off during his race and then produce his amazing turn of foot, so Im expect he'll be okay at middle distances.

On thing about the 2000 Guineas though. The race can be a bit of a lottery when 20 odd turn up and they split into a number of groups. Being drawn the wrong side can knacKer any horse's chances - remember Hawkwing?

cryoftruth, I agree - the draw is the biggest danger to SNA in the Guineas.

geoff m, spot on with the analysis. By the way, Alfred Nobel seems unlikely to make the Guineas - Aidan announced today that he expects his Guineas runners to come from the group SNA, Viscount Nelson, Fencing Master and Beethoven.

dynasty- anyone know anything bout this horse targets etc

Thanks a lot Geoff. I will certainly take these into account when finalising my position. Something I should have done after your advice on Zarkava. ;)

they've mentioned races like the Guineas, Derby etc.

ok ducan has any amount of scope for improvement can see this being a horse to follow will be value in either/both classics

you're the man, king jams

Heres a piece from Johnny Wards Value betting column in last Sundays Sindo, aka Sunday Independent

There seems to be little reason not run St Nicholas Abbey in the English 200 Guineas on May 1 and he is the standout pick.
With a view to his career in the paddocks, getting a Classic win over a mile will boost the son of Montjeus profile considerably, particularly as he is bred for middle distances. He is actually shorter in price for the Derby than the Guineas (6/1 for the double)

You had a reply covering every base ()if St Nick wins geoff m was right, if he doesnt geoff m wins) .. fook me the blind leading the blind ... Punjabi.

Charlton2005 01 Apr 19:07


Thanks a lot Geoff. I will certainly take these into account when finalising my position. Something I should have done after your advice on Zarkava.

Kirk, you make so much money at this game, why do you bother coming on here abusing the small fry like us?

1 month from today the English Guineas and just one question in my mind - by how many lengths does St Nicholas Abbey win this race - 4, 5, 6, more??

Gents this could turn into a re-run of Hawk Wing's Lockinge ;)

4

if Nashwan and Sea The Stars could manage only 1length and 1.5 lengths, i cant really see SNA winning by 3, 4, 5..

Guineas winning distances for the dreamers.

kirk st. moritz 28 Jan 20:44

Up to 1 length - 7 winners
Up to 2 lengths - 6 winners
Up to 3 lengths - 1 winner
Up to 3.5 lengths - 1 winner

You are extremely likely to see the winner win by up to 2 lengths.

In other words there is not much between the top milers each year.

soldieroffortune 01 Apr 22:35
1 month from today the English Guineas and just one question in my mind - by how many lengths does St Nicholas Abbey win this race - 4, 5, 6, more??

Gents this could turn into a re-run of Hawk Wing's Lockinge

or Hawk Wing's guineas ;)

Whats going to beat him them A-T?

I was just having a bit of fun. I'm sure you recall the somewhat unlucky circumstances of Hawk Wing's defeat.

I for one can't see what can beat SNA at Newmarket. The only doubt I have is if he really needs further than a mile, the race lacks pace an d he gets done in a last furlong rush.

Surely Coolmore will ensure that scenario doesnt occur.

Does anyone have any info about Fighting Brave's plans?

Anyone at all concerned that the only two horses to be backed to beat SNA are now both 40/1 for the race that he is 2/1 for? You can hear the excuses already as he runs unplaced in the 2000 and drifts to 12/1 for Epsom. "The RP wasn't that strong". Anyone ever seen a scenario like this before? Or I am I just a deluded fool?

:)

Torres.

I would assume Fighting Brave will go wher the ground is rattling fast although he ran a cracker in soft last weekend.

Its impossible to tell as they have so many horses....some wont run due to the fact they have other horse for races

JM

I was impressed with his run last wk-end too,I would've thought Newmarket would be more likely to have better ground than the Curragh or France??

Regarding SNA horses that can win both a Guineas and a Derby are pretty exceptional seems unlikely we'll get another one so soon. More probable that SNA is either a derby horse or perhaps a miler/10f type. Could put up a Generous-like showing in the Guineas maybe?

horses that can win both a Guineas and a Derby are pretty exceptional seems unlikely we'll get another one so soon

Are you saying that just because we had a good horse last year?
Just because we had a good one last year, does Not mean another cant be very good so soon after,but equally it does not mean SNA is going to great at all.