Classics 2016
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Just The Judge - from a stable that will no doubt target and run in this classic, and who usually start fast with early wins at Donny and the Craven Meeting. She has strong on-course form, and havent got to the bottom of her ability yet.
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Stable start with a win on opening day of the flat, and JTJ now into 2nd Fav, at 9/1. Stable had a win the day before on AW too.
Not for me based on :
1. Her Dosage Index is lower than any winner of the past 10 years, 0.82 as opposed to 0.93 (Virginia Waters)
2. Her Centre Of Distribution is lower than any winner of the last 10 years (0.00), as opposed to 0.13 (Virginia Waters)
3. Charles Hills has had no winners of the race
4. The owner has had no winners of the race
5. Nothing appears on breeding on the sire or dam side to three generations in relation to the last 6 winners
Much more interesting to me are Certify, Moth and Vanity Rules
Certify
1. Meets all Dosage criteria
2. Her trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni won in 2011
3. The owner Godolphin has had 3 winners in the last 20 years
4. Mr Prospector is Great Grand Sire on the Sire side. Also appears in Ghanaati(2009)
Moth (not currently entered)
1. Meets all Dosage criteria
2. Her trainer Aidan O Brien won in 2005 and 2012
3. The owners Magnier/Smith/Tabor won in 2012, Magnier/Tabor in 2005
Vanity Rules
1. Meets all Dosage criteria, although his BIC total (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic)is a little low at 16 (only Natagora 2008 is lower with 8)
2. Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2000 (Lahan)
3. Grand Sire is Danehill (also Homecoming Queens 2012 Grand Sire). Has Sadlers Wells as Great Grand Sire too.
4. However the owner has had no winners of the race
Moth is very interesting after her Curragh win but the plans aren't solid yet
1. Her Dosage Index is lower than any winner of the past 10 years, 0.82 as opposed to 0.93 (Virginia Waters)
2. Her Centre Of Distribution is lower than any winner of the last 10 years (0.00), as opposed to 0.13 (Virginia Waters)
3. Charles Hills has had no winners of the race
4. The owner has had no winners of the race
5. Nothing appears on breeding on the sire or dam side to three generations in relation to the last 6 winners
Much more interesting to me are Certify, Moth and Vanity Rules
Certify
1. Meets all Dosage criteria
2. Her trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni won in 2011
3. The owner Godolphin has had 3 winners in the last 20 years
4. Mr Prospector is Great Grand Sire on the Sire side. Also appears in Ghanaati(2009)
Moth (not currently entered)
1. Meets all Dosage criteria
2. Her trainer Aidan O Brien won in 2005 and 2012
3. The owners Magnier/Smith/Tabor won in 2012, Magnier/Tabor in 2005
Vanity Rules
1. Meets all Dosage criteria, although his BIC total (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic)is a little low at 16 (only Natagora 2008 is lower with 8)
2. Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2000 (Lahan)
3. Grand Sire is Danehill (also Homecoming Queens 2012 Grand Sire). Has Sadlers Wells as Great Grand Sire too.
4. However the owner has had no winners of the race
Moth is very interesting after her Curragh win but the plans aren't solid yet
Really interesting theories Shrews.
Agree that MOTH was very taking, and on breeding I like her for The Oaks, and took the 20/1 last night.
Still keen on Just The Judge, for The Guineas, (though MOTH will be dangerous in this race too), as JTJ is a well made, strong looking filly, who travels well, and visually looked impressive enough on the track in the Rockfel over 7F, and will definitely improve for the extra furlong.
If she shows the pace she did at 2, to get a good posi, then the last 2F should be her strongest.
Ultimately I think a look in the pre-parade ring on 1000G day will tell me if I have a good chance for my 20/1 AP bet, or if she's not ready to deliver her best in early May.
Fingers well and truly crossed.
Agree that MOTH was very taking, and on breeding I like her for The Oaks, and took the 20/1 last night.
Still keen on Just The Judge, for The Guineas, (though MOTH will be dangerous in this race too), as JTJ is a well made, strong looking filly, who travels well, and visually looked impressive enough on the track in the Rockfel over 7F, and will definitely improve for the extra furlong.
If she shows the pace she did at 2, to get a good posi, then the last 2F should be her strongest.
Ultimately I think a look in the pre-parade ring on 1000G day will tell me if I have a good chance for my 20/1 AP bet, or if she's not ready to deliver her best in early May.
Fingers well and truly crossed.
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