Totesport Mile 10-Year-Trends

The Totesport Mile is the big handicap on day 4 of Glorious Goodwood, Friday 29th July. This is a strong trends race with in-form horses aged 3 to 5 that are rated 100+ drawn low heavily favoured.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (http://t.co/AyNsTlp):
Age
3yo: 2-6-27
4yo: 4-10-67
5yo: 3-7-51
6yo: 1-4-25
7yo+: 0-3-29
9 of 10 winners (last 5) were aged 3 to 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 1-7-54, gaining just 1 win despite the fact they have represented almost 28% of the total runners.

Weight
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-17
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-48
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-13-73
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 3-11-56
No very strong trend regarding weights over the past 10 years, though in the past 4 years 11 of 16 places have gone to horses carrying between 8-12 and 9-6.
Horses carrying a penalty: 040000200632414001 (2-6-18)
In last 5 years, the 7 penalised runners to go to post have gained 2 wins and 3 places
Top weight: 09001500750 (1-0-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 5-9-56
Horses rated 90 to 99: 4-14-106
Horses rated 89 or lower: 1-7-32
5 of 10 winners (last 3) were officially rated 100 or higher, despite representing less than 29% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 5 last time out (both exceptions were unplaced in valuable big-field class 2 handicaps)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or higher last time
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 30 days
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run 3 to 6 times that season
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M or 1M 1F
6 of 10 winners (last 4) had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were 2nd in a listed race)
6 of 10 winners had won a race worth 18K+ (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in a race worth 18K+)
9 of 10 winners had contested a group or listed race (exception won the class 2 International Stakes at Ascot on previous start)

Other Races
Britainnia Stakes winner (Sagramor): 90419 (1-1-5)
Epsom Investec Mile winner (Dance And Dance): 30760 (0-1-5)
Ladbrokes.com H'cap winner (Confront): 09 (0-0-2)
Whitsun Cup winner (Dunn'o): 000 (0-0-3)
Coral Challenge winner (Highland Knight): 096 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Whitsun Cup H'cap, finishing 302
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 405
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Britannia Handicap, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Coral Challenge Handicap last time, finishing 65
2 of 10 winners ran in TurfTV handicap at Newmarket, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Windsor Stakes, finishing 26

Trainers
Roger Charlton (2-1-3) has gained 2 wins and a place from his 3 runners in the race.
Saeed Bin Suroor’s (1-1-2) two runners in past 10 years have finished 1st and 2nd.
Richard Fahey (1-0-10) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Marcus Tregoning’s (0-1-1) only runner was beaten a head into 2nd in 2008.

Draw (data updated for new stall ordering)
Horses drawn 1-6: 9-13-60
Horses drawn 7 to 12: 0-10-60
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-7-74
9 of 10 winners were drawn in the bottom 6 stalls

Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently (2 exceptions were slowly away)

Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Only one winner has gone off bigger than 12/1 in past 10 years.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.00 over the past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 3 to 5
•    Horses carrying a penalty do well
•    Officially rated 100 or higher
•    Finished in first 5 in a class 3 or higher in the last 30 days
•    Won over 1M or 1M 1F
•    Run in 12 or fewer handicaps
•    Won or placed in a race worth 18K+
•    Won a class 2 or higher
•    Contested a listed or group race
•    Trained by Roger Charlton or Saeed Bin Suroor
•    Drawn 1 to 6
•    Tends to race prominently
•    From first 5 in the betting