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Classics 2016
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The Totesport Mile is the big handicap on day 4 of Glorious Goodwood, Friday 29th July. This is a strong trends race with in-form horses aged 3 to 5 that are rated 100+ drawn low heavily favoured.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (http://t.co/AyNsTlp):
Age
3yo: 2-6-27
4yo: 4-10-67
5yo: 3-7-51
6yo: 1-4-25
7yo+: 0-3-29
9 of 10 winners (last 5) were aged 3 to 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 1-7-54, gaining just 1 win despite the fact they have represented almost 28% of the total runners.
Weight
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-17
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-48
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-13-73
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 3-11-56
No very strong trend regarding weights over the past 10 years, though in the past 4 years 11 of 16 places have gone to horses carrying between 8-12 and 9-6.
Horses carrying a penalty: 040000200632414001 (2-6-18)
In last 5 years, the 7 penalised runners to go to post have gained 2 wins and 3 places
Top weight: 09001500750 (1-0-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 5-9-56
Horses rated 90 to 99: 4-14-106
Horses rated 89 or lower: 1-7-32
5 of 10 winners (last 3) were officially rated 100 or higher, despite representing less than 29% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 5 last time out (both exceptions were unplaced in valuable big-field class 2 handicaps)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or higher last time
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 30 days
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run 3 to 6 times that season
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M or 1M 1F
6 of 10 winners (last 4) had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were 2nd in a listed race)
6 of 10 winners had won a race worth 18K+ (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in a race worth 18K+)
9 of 10 winners had contested a group or listed race (exception won the class 2 International Stakes at Ascot on previous start)
Other Races
Britainnia Stakes winner (Sagramor): 90419 (1-1-5)
Epsom Investec Mile winner (Dance And Dance): 30760 (0-1-5)
Ladbrokes.com H'cap winner (Confront): 09 (0-0-2)
Whitsun Cup winner (Dunn'o): 000 (0-0-3)
Coral Challenge winner (Highland Knight): 096 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Whitsun Cup H'cap, finishing 302
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 405
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Britannia Handicap, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Coral Challenge Handicap last time, finishing 65
2 of 10 winners ran in TurfTV handicap at Newmarket, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Windsor Stakes, finishing 26
Trainers
Roger Charlton (2-1-3) has gained 2 wins and a place from his 3 runners in the race.
Saeed Bin Suroor’s (1-1-2) two runners in past 10 years have finished 1st and 2nd.
Richard Fahey (1-0-10) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Marcus Tregoning’s (0-1-1) only runner was beaten a head into 2nd in 2008.
Draw (data updated for new stall ordering)
Horses drawn 1-6: 9-13-60
Horses drawn 7 to 12: 0-10-60
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-7-74
9 of 10 winners were drawn in the bottom 6 stalls
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently (2 exceptions were slowly away)
Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Only one winner has gone off bigger than 12/1 in past 10 years.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.00 over the past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 to 5
• Horses carrying a penalty do well
• Officially rated 100 or higher
• Finished in first 5 in a class 3 or higher in the last 30 days
• Won over 1M or 1M 1F
• Run in 12 or fewer handicaps
• Won or placed in a race worth 18K+
• Won a class 2 or higher
• Contested a listed or group race
• Trained by Roger Charlton or Saeed Bin Suroor
• Drawn 1 to 6
• Tends to race prominently
• From first 5 in the betting
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (http://t.co/AyNsTlp):
Age
3yo: 2-6-27
4yo: 4-10-67
5yo: 3-7-51
6yo: 1-4-25
7yo+: 0-3-29
9 of 10 winners (last 5) were aged 3 to 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 1-7-54, gaining just 1 win despite the fact they have represented almost 28% of the total runners.
Weight
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-17
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-48
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-13-73
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 3-11-56
No very strong trend regarding weights over the past 10 years, though in the past 4 years 11 of 16 places have gone to horses carrying between 8-12 and 9-6.
Horses carrying a penalty: 040000200632414001 (2-6-18)
In last 5 years, the 7 penalised runners to go to post have gained 2 wins and 3 places
Top weight: 09001500750 (1-0-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 5-9-56
Horses rated 90 to 99: 4-14-106
Horses rated 89 or lower: 1-7-32
5 of 10 winners (last 3) were officially rated 100 or higher, despite representing less than 29% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 5 last time out (both exceptions were unplaced in valuable big-field class 2 handicaps)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or higher last time
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 30 days
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run 3 to 6 times that season
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M or 1M 1F
6 of 10 winners (last 4) had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were 2nd in a listed race)
6 of 10 winners had won a race worth 18K+ (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in a race worth 18K+)
9 of 10 winners had contested a group or listed race (exception won the class 2 International Stakes at Ascot on previous start)
Other Races
Britainnia Stakes winner (Sagramor): 90419 (1-1-5)
Epsom Investec Mile winner (Dance And Dance): 30760 (0-1-5)
Ladbrokes.com H'cap winner (Confront): 09 (0-0-2)
Whitsun Cup winner (Dunn'o): 000 (0-0-3)
Coral Challenge winner (Highland Knight): 096 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Whitsun Cup H'cap, finishing 302
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 405
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Britannia Handicap, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Coral Challenge Handicap last time, finishing 65
2 of 10 winners ran in TurfTV handicap at Newmarket, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Windsor Stakes, finishing 26
Trainers
Roger Charlton (2-1-3) has gained 2 wins and a place from his 3 runners in the race.
Saeed Bin Suroor’s (1-1-2) two runners in past 10 years have finished 1st and 2nd.
Richard Fahey (1-0-10) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Marcus Tregoning’s (0-1-1) only runner was beaten a head into 2nd in 2008.
Draw (data updated for new stall ordering)
Horses drawn 1-6: 9-13-60
Horses drawn 7 to 12: 0-10-60
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-7-74
9 of 10 winners were drawn in the bottom 6 stalls
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently (2 exceptions were slowly away)
Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Only one winner has gone off bigger than 12/1 in past 10 years.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.00 over the past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 to 5
• Horses carrying a penalty do well
• Officially rated 100 or higher
• Finished in first 5 in a class 3 or higher in the last 30 days
• Won over 1M or 1M 1F
• Run in 12 or fewer handicaps
• Won or placed in a race worth 18K+
• Won a class 2 or higher
• Contested a listed or group race
• Trained by Roger Charlton or Saeed Bin Suroor
• Drawn 1 to 6
• Tends to race prominently
• From first 5 in the betting
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Replies: 3
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Green Destiny ain;'t much of a price but he looks nailed on for this to me
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Also of much importance
Ridden by a jockey with blue eyes 18/20 Ran no less that 7 times as a 2yo 16/20 Foaled before 13th March 16/20 Bred in UK or ireland 19/20 Trained by someone with the letter "e" in their forename 8/!0 owned by someone aged under 50 years old 17/20 Only kidding Racecaller08; your research is simply awesome |
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Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently (2 exceptions were slowly away) GD draw could prove to be his undoing given that he is dropped out and can meet trouble as at Ascot. |