Classics 2016
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24 Jul 11
21:09
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10 Jul 05
to get the winner of this,we need
a speed ratings expert
a grade ratings expert
a sprint king
someone who lives near goodwood who as a lawn
a hcper
a trend anaylaiser
someone whos lucky
a bit like the dirty dozen or the magnificent seven,its traditionally punters hardest race to find the winner,so lets have a crack at it.
any trends guys ,has anyone won the stewards cup ,but previous to winning it has anyone got beat in it first,in other words were all winners attempting race for first time.
until decs are out ,i ve made a start on first 10 in betting.
HOOF IT
looked good on sat,top weight won a big hcp easy - errm,a little look deeper paints a different picture, 19 horses that finished behind hoof it,so was hoof it good or did they make hoof it look good,a good measure is how many of sats runners had won a class 2 ,at 6f on good ground - this would show what sort of a bunch they were,between the 19 horses they d won 3 races ,it was a collection of class 3 and 4 ,5f, or soft going winners.it wins on flat tracks,so goodwood wont suit - will run to RPR 104
MACS POWER
its gone from 90 to 100 this season ,but not won,not your typical fanshawe hcper,it looks exposed and well weighted,wont want ground drying out ,again wants a flat track - will run to 105
EDINBURGH KNIGHT
looks like he wants a bit of cut,not to classy,a bog standard hcper,will nee4d to improve alot to win,again flat tracks,alot against it,- will run to 90
HAWKEYETHENOO
wins on g/f and and g/s,2 good 6f wins ,but now resorted to searching the 7f division to get a win,up 54lb from its first hcp win,might be a bit of good race planning,3 of its last 4 wins were april/may ,when most horses arent fit,likes undulations, will run to 97
PASTORAL PLAYER
looks a bit better,likes good,likes undulations,only won 1 race of any note ,in may ,half the field were first time out,only up 13lb from first hcp,21st out of 27 last yr,but as a 3 yr old,a bit unexposed,but is it classy enough.ran to 92 first time out as a 2 yr old(frankel ran to 95),its beat hoof it twice - so far sets the bench mark,will run to 106.
WAFFLE
as with all the others listed above ,no goodwood form and more worrying ,neither mum or dad of all of them had won at goodwood 6f,might be a bottler,been beat by under 3 l 12 times out of its 16 runs,it cant battle a finish,and its one and only win ,first time out as a 2 yr old - 6 runners,dosent bode well,yet got some great form in big hcps,all its best runs were either 5f,on soft ,or first time out at its local track,will run to - 106
VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR
a big gun,ran in some big hcps,finishing in the frame,up 18lb from first hcp win,its best figures on good at goodwood/undulating,beat hoof it as a 2 yr old,looks to have more improvement ,looks unexposed,looks to have been layed out for this ,finished virtually last in wokingham.i like this one,will run to - 112
EVENS AND ODDS
2nd in it 2 yrs ago ,won it last yr,targetted for it again,first hunch is ,it will be too old,past it,but keep your options open,its achieved an RPR rating of 100 plus every year for last 5 yrs,a consistenet preformer,likes track and going, - will run to - 104
LEXIS HERO
never ran at goodwood,but dad won twice at 6f good,interesting,clearly still improving,its our first 3 yr old,unexposed,trained by ryan,looks a serious attempt by ryan to land this,significantly never ran against older horses,i always think its harder against other 3 yr olds and they surprise when stepping up,alot of g/f and soft form but its best 2 runs are on good at 6f,a definate contender ,will run to - 109P theres more to come.
a speed ratings expert
a grade ratings expert
a sprint king
someone who lives near goodwood who as a lawn
a hcper
a trend anaylaiser
someone whos lucky
a bit like the dirty dozen or the magnificent seven,its traditionally punters hardest race to find the winner,so lets have a crack at it.
any trends guys ,has anyone won the stewards cup ,but previous to winning it has anyone got beat in it first,in other words were all winners attempting race for first time.
until decs are out ,i ve made a start on first 10 in betting.
HOOF IT
looked good on sat,top weight won a big hcp easy - errm,a little look deeper paints a different picture, 19 horses that finished behind hoof it,so was hoof it good or did they make hoof it look good,a good measure is how many of sats runners had won a class 2 ,at 6f on good ground - this would show what sort of a bunch they were,between the 19 horses they d won 3 races ,it was a collection of class 3 and 4 ,5f, or soft going winners.it wins on flat tracks,so goodwood wont suit - will run to RPR 104
MACS POWER
its gone from 90 to 100 this season ,but not won,not your typical fanshawe hcper,it looks exposed and well weighted,wont want ground drying out ,again wants a flat track - will run to 105
EDINBURGH KNIGHT
looks like he wants a bit of cut,not to classy,a bog standard hcper,will nee4d to improve alot to win,again flat tracks,alot against it,- will run to 90
HAWKEYETHENOO
wins on g/f and and g/s,2 good 6f wins ,but now resorted to searching the 7f division to get a win,up 54lb from its first hcp win,might be a bit of good race planning,3 of its last 4 wins were april/may ,when most horses arent fit,likes undulations, will run to 97
PASTORAL PLAYER
looks a bit better,likes good,likes undulations,only won 1 race of any note ,in may ,half the field were first time out,only up 13lb from first hcp,21st out of 27 last yr,but as a 3 yr old,a bit unexposed,but is it classy enough.ran to 92 first time out as a 2 yr old(frankel ran to 95),its beat hoof it twice - so far sets the bench mark,will run to 106.
WAFFLE
as with all the others listed above ,no goodwood form and more worrying ,neither mum or dad of all of them had won at goodwood 6f,might be a bottler,been beat by under 3 l 12 times out of its 16 runs,it cant battle a finish,and its one and only win ,first time out as a 2 yr old - 6 runners,dosent bode well,yet got some great form in big hcps,all its best runs were either 5f,on soft ,or first time out at its local track,will run to - 106
VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR
a big gun,ran in some big hcps,finishing in the frame,up 18lb from first hcp win,its best figures on good at goodwood/undulating,beat hoof it as a 2 yr old,looks to have more improvement ,looks unexposed,looks to have been layed out for this ,finished virtually last in wokingham.i like this one,will run to - 112
EVENS AND ODDS
2nd in it 2 yrs ago ,won it last yr,targetted for it again,first hunch is ,it will be too old,past it,but keep your options open,its achieved an RPR rating of 100 plus every year for last 5 yrs,a consistenet preformer,likes track and going, - will run to - 104
LEXIS HERO
never ran at goodwood,but dad won twice at 6f good,interesting,clearly still improving,its our first 3 yr old,unexposed,trained by ryan,looks a serious attempt by ryan to land this,significantly never ran against older horses,i always think its harder against other 3 yr olds and they surprise when stepping up,alot of g/f and soft form but its best 2 runs are on good at 6f,a definate contender ,will run to - 109P theres more to come.
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Nasri looks plotted to the max imo, just hoping he runs
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DAFEEF
absent for 319 days,seems to have appeared from out of the blue in the betting,never ran in a race of more than 12 runners,won on good,dad won on good and twice at goodwood,never been beaten by more than 3l,its only ever ran in hcp company twice - it walked it on both occaisions,it beat decon blue and bated breath(2nd in darley cup g1),this is a typical haggas big hcp horse,messed about with its races,could be easily a group 1 winner,heard nowt about it - will run to - 112P ,could run 120 NASRI lead out horse for evens and odd,best figures at 7f,allthough its not useless at 6f,its best 3 figures at tracks are at ascot - STIFF,newmarket -STIFF,mussleboro - STIFF,again as ran well here once ,but it didnt run on,which it wont if it needs a stiff track,led its side in wokingham and blew up,it was on 90 rating so had to win to get in this,it won a class 3 ,not sure about this one ,will run to - 100. |
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FAR FROM TROUBLE
NASRI RUNS |
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I LIVE 5 MINS FROM GOODWOOD
 baking hot day and ground should be perfect |
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a few basic criteria
1)winner has rpr rated 105 to 109 previously 2)last 5 yr winners had all ran in class 2 hcps |
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MEDICAN MAN
couldnt win a class to of 10lb lower,also not certain about 6f,its got lower figures will run to - 96 ANCIENT CROSS wrong dist,up too much in weight,no chance - ,it ran in a class 6 seller 2 years agoit will run to - 95 COLONEL MAK got a good chance this ,its only 4 ,not to exposed,its back on a winning weight and on 6f good can win this - will run to 105 CROWN CHOICE could sneek a place won at goodwood,6f g/f,not to high in the weights - will run to - 103 |
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I have a lawn & live near Goodwood, I also have a dart & a copy of the runners if this helps.
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DOCOFTHEBAY
looks to have some good runs latest,not been beat by far ,but dosent have the figures plus last 2 over 7f ,i know horses dropping down 7 to 6 can surprise ,but they tend to be group horses,dream ahead,delegator ,ex guinea horses,plus hes 7 - so no ,will run to - 98 DUBAI MEDIA best figure 98 ,dosent look good enough,i m going to have 2 wild cards in my final bunch ,this could be one,theres something about it,ran 2nd to anne of kiev who then came 4th in workoingham,classy but not shown it yet - figures say will run to 97$ DUNGANNON not good enough,2 class 3 ,will run to - 97 HUMIDOR 2 - 2 at goodwoog 5f and 6f ,never ran in a class2 ,last few runs at 5f ,too much against him will run to - 100 LUI REI big player,2nd on wrong side in wokingham on soft ,all its wins on good,dropped in weight,5 runs on class 2 6f hcps - will run to 106 |
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Think Mon Cadeux will run abig race if he runs
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I don't study form and like nice names and the big Colonel Mak will win.
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hill you may be right but i put docofthebay up as my unluckiest loser of the whole week at newmarket,think it will be to sharp and short and hope it doesnt run but i,ll have to have a loyalty wager,my 3 against the fiekd would be,
tiddlewinks. johannes, docofthebay |
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Atlantic Sport.........drop back inm trip will suit will be coming home strong...hope it gets a middle draw....big chances if it does...against age stats but relatively lightly raced..
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macs power been little unlucky he won his side at ascot where they where winning all week till that day, i think he win but dont wont the ground drying like some said on here had a few quid on fanshawe came back this year big time think he might have a winner tomorrow too
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Dafeef if shows?
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Personally I'm siding with the high drawn horses of which my pick is Colonel Mak, seems to be running into form and taking lines through the likes of Tajneed, Roker Park & Irish Heartbeat comes out a little in front of likely favourite Hoof It (at the weights).
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if anyones passing or bored ,can someone cut and past thee runners in rating order ,deleting non runners,aint got time.
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interesting trend iv e found 8 out of last 10 winners ,had all won at either newmarket,ascot or york,most of them had won at 2 tracks - so dissmiss the hamilton/windsor and sandown only winners.
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No Draw Runner Trainer G Sire
1 18 Hoof It M W Easterby g Monsieur Bond 2 12 Jimmy Styles C Cox g Inchinor 3 2 Dafeef William Haggas g Medicean 4 26 Tiddliwinks Kevin Ryan g Piccolo 5 28 High Standing William Haggas g High Yield 6 24 Pastoral Player H Morrison g Pastoral Pursuits 7 11 Quest For Success R A Fahey g Noverre 8 17 Tajneed D Nicholls g Alhaarth 9 14 Evens And Odds D Nicholls g Johannesburg 10 15 Victoire De Lyphar D Nicholls g Bertolini 11 23 Ancient Cross M W Easterby g Machiavellian 12 1 Mac's Power James Fanshawe g Exceed And Excel 13 9 Atlantic Sport Mick Channon c Machiavellian 14 8 Brave Prospector R A Fahey c Oasis Dream 15 5 Secret Asset J Chapple-hyam g Clodovil 16 25 Docofthebay D Nicholls g Docksider 17 27 Nasri D Nicholls g Kyllachy 18 22 Lui Rei Robert Cowell g Reinaldo 19 6 Crown Choice W R Swinburn g King's Best 20 10 Edinburgh Knight P D'Arcy g Selkirk 21 16 Fitz Flyer B Smart g Acclamation 22 3 Mon Cadeaux A Balding g Cadeaux Genereux 23 20 Kanaf Ed Dunlop g Elnadim 24 21 Colonel Mak T D Barron g Makbul 25 4 Global City S bin Suroor c Exceed And Excel 26 13 Tax Free D Nicholls g Tagula 27 19 Cape To Rio R Hannon c Captain Rio 28 7 Fathsta D M Simcock g Fath |
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Draw Order - highest (stand side) first
No Draw Runner G Sire Trainer 5 28 High Standing g High Yield William Haggas 17 27 Nasri g Kyllachy D Nicholls 4 26 Tiddliwinks g Piccolo Kevin Ryan 16 25 Docofthebay g Docksider D Nicholls 6 24 Pastoral Player g Pastoral Pursuits H Morrison 11 23 Ancient Cross g Machiavellian M W Easterby 18 22 Lui Rei g Reinaldo Robert Cowell 24 21 Colonel Mak g Makbul T D Barron 23 20 Kanaf g Elnadim Ed Dunlop 27 19 Cape To Rio c Captain Rio R Hannon 1 18 Hoof It g Monsieur Bond M W Easterby 8 17 Tajneed g Alhaarth D Nicholls 21 16 Fitz Flyer g Acclamation B Smart 10 15 Victoire De Lyphar g Bertolini D Nicholls 9 14 Evens And Odds g Johannesburg D Nicholls 26 13 Tax Free g Tagula D Nicholls 2 12 Jimmy Styles g Inchinor C Cox 7 11 Quest For Success g Noverre R A Fahey 20 10 Edinburgh Knight g Selkirk P D'Arcy 13 9 Atlantic Sport c Machiavellian Mick Channon 14 8 Brave Prospector c Oasis Dream R A Fahey 28 7 Fathsta g Fath D M Simcock 19 6 Crown Choice g King's Best W R Swinburn 15 5 Secret Asset g Clodovil J Chapple-hyam 25 4 Global City c Exceed And Excel S bin Suroor 22 3 Mon Cadeaux g Cadeaux Genereux A Balding 3 2 Dafeef g Medicean William Haggas 12 1 Mac's Power g Exceed And Excel James Fanshawe |
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Nasri - plotted up for same connections as Evens and Odds, fast paced 6f ideal, ran ok at Goodwood before and a few decent runs this year. good 6f race at Doncaster early in the season and ran big races in the Viccy Cup and Bunbury albeit over 7f
decent price gl |
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thanks for posting the ratings ,but i meant the ones i d given them - i find mine alot more reliable than offical ratings.
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BRAVE PROSPECTOR took 70 on BF seems value
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Runner............................. CUTH RATING
VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR112 a big gun,ran in some big hcps,finishing in the frame,up 18lb from first hcp win,its best figures on good at goodwood/undulating,beat hoof it as a 2 yr old,looks to have more improvement ,looks unexposed,looks to have been layed out for this ,finished virtually last in wokingham.i like this one,will run to - 112 DAFEEF 112 absent for 319 days,seems to have appeared from out of the blue in the betting,never ran in a race of more than 12 runners,won on good,dad won on good and twice at goodwood,never been beaten by more than 3l,its only ever ran in hcp company twice - it walked it on both occaisions,it beat decon blue and bated breath(2nd in darley cup g1),this is a typical haggas big hcp horse,messed about with its races,could be easily a group 1 winner,heard nowt about it - will run to - 112P ,could run 120 LUI REI 106 big player,2nd on wrong side in wokingham on soft ,all its wins on good,dropped in weight,5 runs on class 2 6f hcps - will run to 106 PASTORAL PLAYER106 looks a bit better,likes good,likes undulations,only won 1 race of any note ,in may ,half the field were first time out,only up 13lb from first hcp,21st out of 27 last yr,but as a 3 yr old,a bit unexposed,but is it classy enough.ran to 92 first time out as a 2 yr old(frankel ran to 95),its beat hoof it twice - so far sets the bench mark,will run to 106. 106 MACS POWER 105 its gone from 90 to 100 this season ,but not won,not your typical fanshawe hcper,it looks exposed and well weighted,wont want ground drying out ,again wants a flat track - will run to 105 COLONEL MAK105 got a good chance this ,its only 4 ,not to exposed,its back on a winning weight and on 6f good can win this - will run to 105 HOOF IT104 looked good on sat,top weight won a big hcp easy - errm,a little look deeper paints a different picture, 19 horses that finished behind hoof it,so was hoof it good or did they make hoof it look good,a good measure is how many of sats runners had won a class 2 ,at 6f on good ground - this would show what sort of a bunch they were,between the 19 horses they d won 3 races ,it was a collection of class 3 and 4 ,5f, or soft going winners.it wins on flat tracks,so goodwood wont suit - will run to RPR 104 EVENS AND ODDS104 2nd in it 2 yrs ago ,won it last yr,targetted for it again,first hunch is ,it will be too old,past it,but keep your options open,its achieved an RPR rating of 100 plus every year for last 5 yrs,a consistenet preformer,likes track and going, - will run to - 104 CROWN CHOICE103 could sneek a place won at goodwood,6f g/f,not to high in the weights - will run to - 103 NASRI 100 lead out horse for evens and odd,best figures at 7f,allthough its not useless at 6f,its best 3 figures at tracks are at ascot - STIFF,newmarket -STIFF,mussleboro - STIFF,again as ran well here once ,but it didnt run on,which it wont if it needs a stiff track,led its side in wokingham and blew up,it was on 90 rating so had to win to get in this,it won a class 3 ,not sure about this one ,will run to - 100. DOCOFTHEBAY 98 looks to have some good runs latest,not been beat by far ,but dosent have the figures plus last 2 over 7f ,i know horses dropping down 7 to 6 can surprise ,but they tend to be group horses,dream ahead,delegator ,ex guinea horses,plus hes 7 - so no ,will run to - 98 ANCIENT CROSS95 wrong dist,up too much in weight,no chance - ,it ran in a class 6 seller 2 years agoit will run to - 95 EDINBURGH KNIGHT90 looks like he wants a bit of cut,not to classy,a bog standard hcper,will nee4d to improve alot to win,again flat tracks,alot against it,- will run to 90 JIMMY STYLES TIDDLIWINKS HIGH STANDING QUEST FOR SUCCESS TAJNEED ATLANTIC SPORT BRAVE PROSPECTOR SECRET ASSET FITZ FLYER MON CADEAUX KANAF GLOBAL CITY TAX FREE CAPE TO RIO FATHSTA |
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stillm some horses to do ,but this is the top few so far
dafeer 120(got excited here will revise) victorie de lyphard 112 lui rei 106 pastoral player 106 macs power 105 colnel mak 105 hoof it 104 evens and odd 104 crown choice 103 docoofthebay 103 (revised up) ducai media(wild card entry) i ll check the rest,and post tomorrow. |
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cheers PHS
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hoof it , guaranteed that horse is in form, like they say group 1 horse in making. place bet is a certainty.
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Cape to Rio - Hannons 3 year old (yes stats against) massivley overr priced here - decent listed/group form and low weight, OK draw, better than 50/1 chance IMO...
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^Like Green Destiny was ?
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interview with w haggis, before race virtually told you it wasnt going to win,green destiny, if good reader of body language.
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JIMMY STYLES - 99
TIDDLIWINKS - 100 HIGH STANDING - 104 QUEST FOR SUCCESS - 103 TAJNEED- 105 ATLANTIC SPORT - 103 BRAVE PROSPECTOR - 100 SECRET ASSET - 100 FITZ FLYER - 110 MON CADEAUX - 102 KANAF - 100 GLOBAL CITY - 103 TAX FREE - 102 CAPE TO RIO - 104 FATHSTA - 105 |
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i ve totally messed up dafeer - make it 104 - off to bed -
if someone wants tidy the list up,put them in 3 groups draw high middle low |
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FINAL LIST
victorie de lyphard15 ...112 fitz flyer.........16....110 lui rei............22....106 pastoryal player...24....106 tjaneed............17....105 fatasha............7.....105 macs power.........1.....105 colonel mak........21....105 hoof it............18....104 first 3 home will be in that lot,tjaneed could surprise,lui reis due to win a big one - hoof it will make the frame,pastoral player is a group horse. i ve lead you to water ,you choose your drink. |
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macs power has got no chance. lay IMO. race record is diabolical. unless its a late developer,
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boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom
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WELL done pat, gave it a great ride not!
ony jock make a good draw bad far to much to do! |
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roadrunner46
30 Jul 11 11:00 Joined: 25 Apr 11 | Topic/replies: 143 | Blogger: roadrunner46's blog macs power has got no chance. lay IMO. race record is diabolical. unless its a late developer, AFTER THE RACE...he comes on with BOOM! If a horse has NO CHANCE and comes 3rd out of 28 runners......then you have a strange definition of NO CHANCE. Thank you for advising a 1/7 winner. WD. |
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hello trusty, look little further down i tipped the winner
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trusty - a poor effort by me there,this tinas spirit 4.50 hasnt had todays conditions,cos its not won its well hcped,its dad won new 6f g/f a few times and its mum did aswell,avon pearl andsafari storms dad both won 6f g/f new,its worth a swmall place bet
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mean goodwood not new
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