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comingupthehill
24 Jul 11 21:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Jul 05
| Topic/replies: 7,547 | Blogger: comingupthehill's blog
to get the winner of this,we need
a speed ratings expert
a grade ratings expert
a sprint king
someone who lives near goodwood who as a lawn
a hcper
a trend anaylaiser
someone whos lucky

a bit like the dirty dozen or the magnificent seven,its traditionally punters hardest race to find the winner,so lets have a crack at it.

any trends guys ,has anyone won the stewards cup ,but previous to winning it has anyone got beat in it first,in other words were all winners attempting race for first time.

until decs are out ,i ve made a start on first 10 in betting.

HOOF IT
looked good on sat,top weight won a big hcp easy -  errm,a little look deeper paints a different picture, 19 horses that finished behind hoof it,so was hoof it good or did they make hoof it look good,a good measure is how many of sats runners had won a class 2 ,at 6f on good ground - this would show what sort of a bunch they were,between the 19 horses they d won 3 races ,it was a collection of class 3 and 4 ,5f, or soft going winners.it wins on flat tracks,so goodwood wont suit - will run to RPR 104

MACS POWER
its gone from 90 to 100 this season ,but not won,not your typical fanshawe hcper,it looks exposed and well weighted,wont want ground drying out ,again wants a flat track - will run to 105

EDINBURGH KNIGHT
looks like he wants a bit of cut,not to classy,a bog standard hcper,will nee4d to improve alot to win,again flat tracks,alot against it,- will run to 90

HAWKEYETHENOO
wins on g/f and and g/s,2 good 6f wins ,but now resorted to searching the 7f division to get a win,up 54lb from its first hcp win,might be a bit of good race planning,3 of its last 4 wins were april/may ,when most horses arent fit,likes undulations, will run to 97

PASTORAL PLAYER
looks a bit better,likes good,likes undulations,only won 1 race of any note ,in may ,half the field were first time out,only up 13lb from first hcp,21st out of 27 last yr,but as a 3 yr old,a bit unexposed,but is it classy enough.ran to 92 first time out as a 2 yr old(frankel ran to 95),its beat hoof it twice - so far sets the bench mark,will run to 106.

WAFFLE
as with all the others listed above ,no goodwood form and more worrying ,neither mum or dad of all of them had won at goodwood 6f,might be a bottler,been beat by under 3 l 12 times out of its 16 runs,it cant battle a finish,and its one and only win ,first time out as a 2 yr old - 6 runners,dosent bode well,yet got some great form in big hcps,all its best runs were either 5f,on soft ,or first time out at its local track,will run to - 106

VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR
a big gun,ran in some big hcps,finishing in the frame,up 18lb from first hcp win,its best figures on good at goodwood/undulating,beat hoof it as a 2 yr old,looks to have more improvement ,looks unexposed,looks to have been layed out for this ,finished virtually last in wokingham.i like this one,will run to - 112

EVENS AND ODDS
2nd in it 2 yrs ago ,won it last yr,targetted for it again,first hunch is ,it will be too old,past it,but keep your options open,its achieved an RPR rating of 100 plus every year for last 5 yrs,a consistenet preformer,likes track and going, - will run to - 104

LEXIS HERO
never ran at goodwood,but dad won twice at 6f good,interesting,clearly still improving,its our first 3 yr old,unexposed,trained by ryan,looks a serious attempt by ryan to land this,significantly never ran against older horses,i always think its harder against other 3 yr olds and they surprise when stepping up,alot of g/f and soft form but its best 2 runs are on good at  6f,a definate contender ,will run to - 109P theres more to come.
Pause Switch to Standard View stewards cup goodwood 6f - we need to...
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Report Far From Trouble July 24, 2011 11:17 PM BST
Nasri looks plotted to the max imo, just hoping he runs Mischief
Report comingupthehill July 25, 2011 1:26 AM BST
DAFEEF
absent for 319 days,seems to have appeared from out of the blue in the betting,never ran in a race of more than 12 runners,won on good,dad won on good and twice at goodwood,never been beaten by more than 3l,its only ever ran in hcp company twice - it walked it on both occaisions,it beat decon blue and bated breath(2nd in darley cup g1),this is a typical haggas big hcp horse,messed about with its races,could be easily a group 1 winner,heard nowt about it - will run to - 112P ,could run 120

NASRI
lead out horse for evens and odd,best figures at 7f,allthough its not useless at 6f,its best 3 figures at tracks are at ascot - STIFF,newmarket -STIFF,mussleboro - STIFF,again as ran well here once ,but it didnt run on,which it wont if it needs a stiff track,led its side in wokingham and blew up,it was on 90 rating so had to win to get in this,it won a class 3 ,not sure about this one ,will run to - 100.
Report DABHAND July 25, 2011 12:49 PM BST
FAR FROM TROUBLE
NASRI RUNS
Report redbag July 25, 2011 5:57 PM BST
I LIVE 5 MINS FROM GOODWOODCool

baking hot day and ground should be perfect
Report comingupthehill July 25, 2011 10:17 PM BST
a few basic criteria

1)winner has rpr rated 105 to 109 previously
2)last 5 yr winners had all ran in class 2 hcps
Report comingupthehill July 25, 2011 11:02 PM BST
MEDICAN MAN
couldnt win a class to of 10lb lower,also not certain about 6f,its got lower figures will run to - 96

ANCIENT CROSS
wrong dist,up too much in weight,no chance - ,it ran in a class 6 seller 2 years agoit will run to - 95

COLONEL MAK
got a good chance this ,its only 4 ,not to exposed,its back on a winning weight and on 6f good can win this - will run to 105

CROWN CHOICE
could sneek a place won at goodwood,6f g/f,not to high in the weights - will run to - 103
Report Micky Finn July 26, 2011 11:40 PM BST
I have a lawn & live near Goodwood, I also have a dart & a copy of the runners if this helps.
Report comingupthehill July 27, 2011 3:08 PM BST
DOCOFTHEBAY
looks to have some good runs latest,not been beat by far ,but dosent have the figures plus last 2 over 7f ,i know horses dropping down 7 to 6 can surprise ,but they tend to be group horses,dream ahead,delegator ,ex guinea horses,plus hes 7 - so no ,will run to - 98

DUBAI MEDIA
best figure 98 ,dosent look good enough,i m going to have 2 wild cards in my final bunch ,this could be one,theres something about it,ran 2nd to anne of kiev who then came 4th in workoingham,classy but not shown it yet - figures say will run to 97$

DUNGANNON
not good enough,2 class 3 ,will run to - 97

HUMIDOR
2 - 2 at goodwoog 5f and 6f ,never ran in a class2 ,last few runs at 5f ,too much against him will run to - 100

LUI REI
big player,2nd on wrong side in wokingham on soft ,all its wins on good,dropped in weight,5 runs on class 2 6f hcps - will run to 106
Report CROPSICK July 27, 2011 4:04 PM BST
Think Mon Cadeux will run abig race if he runs
Report liberator of the oppressed July 27, 2011 4:31 PM BST
I don't study form and like nice names and the big Colonel Mak will win.
Report 1st time poster July 27, 2011 8:37 PM BST
hill you may be right but i put docofthebay up as my unluckiest loser of the whole week at newmarket,think it will be to sharp and short and hope it doesnt run but i,ll have to have a loyalty wager,my 3 against the fiekd would be,
tiddlewinks.
johannes,
docofthebay
Report THE LEGEND July 27, 2011 9:57 PM BST
Atlantic Sport.........drop back inm trip will suit will be coming home strong...hope it gets a middle draw....big chances if it does...against age stats but relatively lightly raced..
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK July 27, 2011 10:09 PM BST
macs power been little unlucky he won his side at ascot where they where winning all week till that day, i think he win but dont wont the ground drying like some said on here had a few quid on fanshawe came back this year big time think he might have a winner tomorrow too
Report stevo1 July 28, 2011 9:34 AM BST
Dafeef if shows?
Report selina July 28, 2011 5:41 PM BST
Personally I'm siding with the high drawn horses of which my pick is Colonel Mak, seems to be running into form and taking lines through the likes of Tajneed, Roker Park & Irish Heartbeat comes out a little in front of likely favourite Hoof It (at the weights).
Report comingupthehill July 28, 2011 11:12 PM BST
if anyones passing or bored ,can someone cut and past thee runners in rating order ,deleting non runners,aint got time.
Report comingupthehill July 28, 2011 11:27 PM BST
interesting trend iv e found 8 out  of last 10 winners ,had all won at either newmarket,ascot or york,most of them had won at 2 tracks - so dissmiss the hamilton/windsor and sandown only winners.
Report PHS July 29, 2011 11:32 AM BST
No    Draw    Runner    Trainer    G    Sire
1    18    Hoof It    M W Easterby    g    Monsieur Bond 
2    12    Jimmy Styles    C Cox    g    Inchinor   
3    2    Dafeef    William Haggas    g    Medicean   
4    26    Tiddliwinks    Kevin Ryan    g    Piccolo   
5    28    High Standing    William Haggas    g    High Yield 
6    24    Pastoral Player    H Morrison    g    Pastoral Pursuits 
7    11    Quest For Success    R A Fahey    g    Noverre   
8    17    Tajneed    D Nicholls    g    Alhaarth   
9    14    Evens And Odds    D Nicholls    g    Johannesburg   
10    15    Victoire De Lyphar    D Nicholls    g    Bertolini   
11    23    Ancient Cross    M W Easterby    g    Machiavellian   
12    1    Mac's Power    James Fanshawe    g    Exceed And Excel
13    9    Atlantic Sport    Mick Channon    c    Machiavellian   
14    8    Brave Prospector    R A Fahey    c    Oasis Dream 
15    5    Secret Asset    J Chapple-hyam    g    Clodovil   
16    25    Docofthebay    D Nicholls    g    Docksider   
17    27    Nasri    D Nicholls    g    Kyllachy   
18    22    Lui Rei    Robert Cowell    g    Reinaldo
19    6    Crown Choice    W R Swinburn    g    King's Best 
20    10    Edinburgh Knight    P D'Arcy    g    Selkirk   
21    16    Fitz Flyer    B Smart    g    Acclamation   
22    3    Mon Cadeaux    A Balding    g    Cadeaux Genereux 
23    20    Kanaf    Ed Dunlop    g    Elnadim   
24    21    Colonel Mak    T D Barron    g    Makbul   
25    4    Global City    S bin Suroor    c    Exceed And Excel
26    13    Tax Free    D Nicholls    g    Tagula   
27    19    Cape To Rio    R Hannon    c    Captain Rio 
28    7    Fathsta    D M Simcock    g    Fath
Report PHS July 29, 2011 11:35 AM BST
Draw Order - highest (stand side) first

No    Draw    Runner    G    Sire    Trainer
5    28    High Standing    g    High Yield      William Haggas
17    27    Nasri    g    Kyllachy       D Nicholls
4    26    Tiddliwinks    g    Piccolo       Kevin Ryan
16    25    Docofthebay    g    Docksider       D Nicholls
6    24    Pastoral Player    g    Pastoral Pursuits      H Morrison
11    23    Ancient Cross    g    Machiavellian       M W Easterby
18    22    Lui Rei    g    Reinaldo    Robert Cowell
24    21    Colonel Mak    g    Makbul       T D Barron
23    20    Kanaf    g    Elnadim       Ed Dunlop
27    19    Cape To Rio    c    Captain Rio      R Hannon
1    18    Hoof It    g    Monsieur Bond      M W Easterby
8    17    Tajneed    g    Alhaarth       D Nicholls
21    16    Fitz Flyer    g    Acclamation       B Smart
10    15    Victoire De Lyphar    g    Bertolini       D Nicholls
9    14    Evens And Odds    g    Johannesburg       D Nicholls
26    13    Tax Free    g    Tagula       D Nicholls
2    12    Jimmy Styles    g    Inchinor       C Cox
7    11    Quest For Success    g    Noverre       R A Fahey
20    10    Edinburgh Knight    g    Selkirk       P D'Arcy
13    9    Atlantic Sport    c    Machiavellian       Mick Channon
14    8    Brave Prospector    c    Oasis Dream      R A Fahey
28    7    Fathsta    g    Fath       D M Simcock
19    6    Crown Choice    g    King's Best      W R Swinburn
15    5    Secret Asset    g    Clodovil       J Chapple-hyam
25    4    Global City    c    Exceed And Excel     S bin Suroor
22    3    Mon Cadeaux    g    Cadeaux Genereux      A Balding
3    2    Dafeef    g    Medicean       William Haggas
12    1    Mac's Power    g    Exceed And Excel     James Fanshawe
Report Far From Trouble July 29, 2011 11:51 AM BST
Nasri - plotted up for same connections as Evens and Odds, fast paced 6f ideal, ran ok at Goodwood before and a few decent runs this year. good 6f race at Doncaster early in the season and ran big races in the Viccy Cup and Bunbury albeit over 7f

decent price gl
Report comingupthehill July 29, 2011 7:11 PM BST
thanks for posting the ratings ,but i meant the ones i d given them - i find mine alot more reliable than offical ratings.
Report notoriousp.i.g. July 29, 2011 7:53 PM BST
BRAVE PROSPECTOR  took 70 on BF  seems value
Report PHS July 30, 2011 12:36 AM BST
Runner.............................    CUTH RATING
   
VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR112
a big gun,ran in some big hcps,finishing in the frame,up 18lb from first hcp win,its best figures on good at goodwood/undulating,beat hoof it as a 2 yr old,looks to have more improvement ,looks unexposed,looks to have been layed out for this ,finished virtually last in wokingham.i like this one,will run to - 112   
   
DAFEEF    112
absent for 319 days,seems to have appeared from out of the blue in the betting,never ran in a race of more than 12 runners,won on good,dad won on good and twice at goodwood,never been beaten by more than 3l,its only ever ran in hcp company twice - it walked it on both occaisions,it beat decon blue and bated breath(2nd in darley cup g1),this is a typical haggas big hcp horse,messed about with its races,could be easily a group 1 winner,heard nowt about it - will run to - 112P ,could run 120   
   
LUI REI    106
big player,2nd on wrong side in wokingham on soft ,all its wins on good,dropped in weight,5 runs on class 2 6f hcps - will run to 106
   
PASTORAL PLAYER106
looks a bit better,likes good,likes undulations,only won 1 race of any note ,in may ,half the field were first time out,only up 13lb from first hcp,21st out of 27 last yr,but as a 3 yr old,a bit unexposed,but is it classy enough.ran to 92 first time out as a 2 yr old(frankel ran to 95),its beat hoof it twice - so far sets the bench mark,will run to 106.    106
   
MACS POWER    105
its gone from 90 to 100 this season ,but not won,not your typical fanshawe hcper,it looks exposed and well weighted,wont want ground drying out ,again wants a flat track - will run to 105
   
COLONEL MAK105
got a good chance this ,its only 4 ,not to exposed,its back on a winning weight and on 6f good can win this - will run to 105
   
HOOF IT104
looked good on sat,top weight won a big hcp easy -  errm,a little look deeper paints a different picture, 19 horses that finished behind hoof it,so was hoof it good or did they make hoof it look good,a good measure is how many of sats runners had won a class 2 ,at 6f on good ground - this would show what sort of a bunch they were,between the 19 horses they d won 3 races ,it was a collection of class 3 and 4 ,5f, or soft going winners.it wins on flat tracks,so goodwood wont suit - will run to RPR 104
   
EVENS AND ODDS104
2nd in it 2 yrs ago ,won it last yr,targetted for it again,first hunch is ,it will be too old,past it,but keep your options open,its achieved an RPR rating of 100 plus every year for last 5 yrs,a consistenet preformer,likes track and going, - will run to - 104   
   
CROWN CHOICE103   
could sneek a place won at goodwood,6f g/f,not to high in the weights - will run to - 103   
   
NASRI    100
lead out horse for evens and odd,best figures at 7f,allthough its not useless at 6f,its best 3 figures at tracks are at ascot - STIFF,newmarket -STIFF,mussleboro - STIFF,again as ran well here once ,but it didnt run on,which it wont if it needs a stiff track,led its side in wokingham and blew up,it was on 90 rating so had to win to get in this,it won a class 3 ,not sure about this one ,will run to - 100.   
   
DOCOFTHEBAY    98
looks to have some good runs latest,not been beat by far ,but dosent have the figures plus last 2 over 7f ,i know horses dropping down 7 to 6 can surprise ,but they tend to be group horses,dream ahead,delegator ,ex guinea horses,plus hes 7 - so no ,will run to - 98   
   
ANCIENT CROSS95
wrong dist,up too much in weight,no chance - ,it ran in a class 6 seller 2 years agoit will run to - 95
   
EDINBURGH KNIGHT90
looks like he wants a bit of cut,not to classy,a bog standard hcper,will nee4d to improve alot to win,again flat tracks,alot against it,- will run to 90
   
JIMMY STYLES   
   
TIDDLIWINKS   
   
HIGH STANDING   
   
QUEST FOR SUCCESS   
   
TAJNEED   
   
ATLANTIC SPORT   
   
BRAVE PROSPECTOR   
   
SECRET ASSET   
   
FITZ FLYER   
   
MON CADEAUX   
   
KANAF   
   
GLOBAL CITY   
   
TAX FREE   
   
CAPE TO RIO   
   
FATHSTA
Report comingupthehill July 30, 2011 12:38 AM BST
stillm some horses to do ,but this is the top few so far

dafeer 120(got excited here will revise)
victorie de lyphard 112
lui rei 106
pastoral player 106
macs power 105
colnel mak 105
hoof it 104
evens and odd 104
crown choice 103
docoofthebay 103 (revised up)
ducai media(wild card entry)

i ll  check the rest,and post tomorrow.
Report comingupthehill July 30, 2011 12:40 AM BST
cheers PHS
Report roadrunner46 July 30, 2011 12:55 AM BST
hoof it , guaranteed that horse is in form, like they say group 1 horse in making. place bet is a certainty.
Report Derbyshire Racing July 30, 2011 1:00 AM BST
Cape to Rio - Hannons 3 year old (yes stats against) massivley overr priced here - decent listed/group form and low weight, OK draw, better than 50/1 chance IMO...
Report PHS July 30, 2011 1:01 AM BST
^Like Green Destiny was ?
Report roadrunner46 July 30, 2011 1:07 AM BST
interview with w haggis, before race virtually told you it wasnt going to win,green destiny, if good reader of body language.
Report comingupthehill July 30, 2011 1:38 AM BST
JIMMY STYLES - 99   
   
TIDDLIWINKS - 100   
   
HIGH STANDING  - 104   
   
QUEST FOR SUCCESS - 103   
   
TAJNEED- 105   
   
ATLANTIC SPORT - 103   
   
BRAVE PROSPECTOR - 100   
   
SECRET ASSET  - 100 
   
FITZ FLYER - 110   
   
MON CADEAUX - 102   
   
KANAF - 100   
   
GLOBAL CITY - 103   
   
TAX FREE - 102   
   
CAPE TO RIO - 104   
   
FATHSTA - 105
Report comingupthehill July 30, 2011 1:45 AM BST
i ve totally messed up dafeer - make it 104 - off to bed -

if someone wants tidy the list up,put them in 3 groups draw high middle  low
Report comingupthehill July 30, 2011 7:08 AM BST
FINAL LIST

victorie de lyphard15 ...112
fitz flyer.........16....110
lui rei............22....106
pastoryal player...24....106
tjaneed............17....105
fatasha............7.....105
macs power.........1.....105
colonel mak........21....105
hoof it............18....104



first 3 home will be in that lot,tjaneed could surprise,lui reis due to win a big one - hoof it will make the frame,pastoral player is a group horse.


i ve lead you to water ,you choose your drink.
Report roadrunner46 July 30, 2011 11:00 AM BST
macs power has got no chance. lay IMO. race record is diabolical. unless its a late developer,
Report roadrunner46 July 30, 2011 3:51 PM BST
boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK July 30, 2011 3:56 PM BST
WELL done pat, gave it a great ride not!
ony jock make a good draw bad far to much to do!
Report Trusty July 30, 2011 4:12 PM BST
roadrunner46
30 Jul 11 11:00 Joined: 25 Apr 11 | Topic/replies: 143 | Blogger: roadrunner46's blog
macs power has got no chance. lay IMO. race record is diabolical. unless its a late developer,

AFTER THE RACE...he comes on with BOOM!

If a horse has NO CHANCE and comes 3rd out of 28 runners......then you have a strange definition of NO CHANCE.

Thank you for advising a 1/7 winner. WD.
Report roadrunner46 July 30, 2011 4:15 PM BST
hello trusty, look little further down i tipped the winner
Report comingupthehill July 30, 2011 4:42 PM BST
trusty - a poor effort by me there,this tinas spirit 4.50 hasnt had todays conditions,cos its not won its well hcped,its dad won new 6f g/f a few times and its mum did aswell,avon pearl andsafari storms dad both won 6f g/f new,its worth a swmall place bet
Report comingupthehill July 30, 2011 5:00 PM BST
mean goodwood not new
Report Trusty July 30, 2011 7:45 PM BST
well done road runner.....you tipped the fav for a place. back slaps all round...will make a note of your future posts.
Report Trusty July 30, 2011 7:49 PM BST
dont worry cuth, you have given more than your fair share of winners.
Report Trusty July 30, 2011 7:49 PM BST
dont worry cuth, you have given more than your fair share of winners.
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