timeford have frankel 14lbs superior to canford cliffs

timeform not d

Do you think Frankel could give Canford 14lbs in a handicap?

Canford Cliffs will beat Frankel in the Sussex, even with the wfa allowance

Seriously, has anyone actually heard either Henry Cecil or Teddy G say that Frankel is DEFINITELY going to the Sussex and not the Juddmonte? I haven't. I've only heard a suggestion from Queally and a quote from TG saying it's the "obvious race to go for". TG got Workforce's targets wrong last year and I'm waiting for Cecil to come out and say where he goes..

see   frankel on track for goodwood thread on horse racing, but again its tg quoting

Do you REALLY think CC is four lengths better than Frankel?? Do you?

IN THE SUSSEX STAKES CC HAS TO GIVE FRANKEL 8LB

a) CC won't turn up  - easier grade 1s to be had and he stays 10f now and coole more have an interest in improving his breeding profile and keeping him unbeaten this year

b) Ridden properly, Frankel will eat CC for breakfast - his kick is devastating.

c) I love CC, but he 'ain't no' pegasus and he'd need to be to out-kick Frankel +8lb

d) We don't know still if one or both will be there

Somerset_Moan 26 Jun 11 21:13 


a) CC won't turn up  - easier grade 1s to be had and he stays 10f now
---------

how do you know he stays 10f?

I've always thought Canford Cliffs would get 12 furlongs and was pretty surprised when there was no mention of him at least trying.

There is now but that has only come about because of Frankel so let's not kid ourselves about that.

I'm in a kinda awkward position as I've been raving about Canford Cliffs ever since he bolted with Hughsie at Ascot as a 2 year old and had the man using the word "Freak" before Frankel had even seen a racecourse.

I'm a huge fan of the Hannon horse but one has to be realistic. He would have to give weight to Frankel which may prove to be impossible.

I suppose it's all down to which horse has the greater acceleration and of course the tactics.

A study of the sectionals bring up an interesting fact. When Frankel beat Treasure Beach and co on softish ground in the Royal Lodge at Ascot he actually recorded an almost identical time over the last 2 furlongs as Canford Cliffs did on good ground when beating Dick Turpin.

Considering his tender age and the fact he was on his ownsome all the way up the straight that has to be taken seriously.

I was a bit peeved that Henry didn't listen to those who reckoned the quickest way to get Frankel beaten was to continue with those Guineas tactics.

Was pretty obiious to me if Duwabi Gold and Native Khan could run him down to 4 lengths he could be in trouble if he tried those tactics with better animals. Ok so they got away with it again,just, but against a horse who wouldn't blow wind up CC's backside.

None of that reflects on how good Frankel could be if they get the nonsense out of their heads.

If they restrain him until 2f out with wfa I would expect Frankel to win, try it any other way and he will be beaten IMO

Canford Cliffs has enough raw speed to lay up with anything and keeps on finding that bit more to get his head in front, he won the QA a lot more comfortably than the winning margin suggested, and he seems to do just enough

Chances are Frankel isn't going to race like he has this season in this, but he'll still be the first to play his hand, giving Canford something to aim for and catch, which I believe he inevitably will do.

As long as people keep underestimating Canford Cliffs then i'm happy as i'll get a better price. He's a MUCH better horse than he is given credit for

Mightymoyes- it's all a matter of personal opinion... BUT...

a) Look at his entries
b) Listen to the trainer
c) WATCH HIS RACES

Were you at Ascot? I was - he outstayed cityscape and Goldie... but was not going away.

He wants further now and will get chewed up by Frankel at 8f once they ride him properly.. Don't get me wrong, I love CC... but he ain't Pegasus... and giving weight to Frankel he'd need to be

Far from trouble - how close were you to the rails at Ascot?

Goldie didn't fire, Peslier was 2lb overweight, but still CC had to work to get by

He's a lovely horse but he'll need to be a lot better than that to give Frankel weight

I'm not sure one or both wil turn up at Goodwood... but Ascot for the QE11 is the REAL test this year and I'd love to see them both in training next

Canford Cliffs always runs the same though. Hughesy gets to work it takes him a fair few strides to get going, he gets in full flight then he gets to the front and just does enough

Frankel may well be his toughest test to date, but i'm a massive fan of CC and it surprises me that more people can't see how much class he oozes

I'm not even considering weight for age allowance, totally irrelevant

Well we're all entitled to an opinion, but from a BETTING perspective, the Wfa allowance is everything.

You MIGHT consider CC a better horse, even three lengths better... but in the Sussex he gives 8lb, which - strictly speaking -is 4 lengths, so Frankel "Should" win by a length...

I happen to think Frankel is at least as good as CC, so with the WFA I shall be wading in on Frankel - ANYTHING above 4/6 on Frankel is just a licence to print money  IMHO...

We'll just see... although I'm far from convinced one or both will go to Goodwood

SURPRISE SURPRISE!! It's you again, Somerset_Moan, going on about ths BS 8lb WFA being 4 lengths...
Oh I better not forget though, you were there, at Ascot, (with binoculors)

Someone said Goldi didn't fire, I disagree, that is as good as she is and Canford won snug imo, he is an underrated horse.

canford is a miler, he will not say 10f against top class staying animals.

as for a mile and a half.. a son of tagula?

gl

i dont think canford is underrated at all, sure he was fav until just before the off against a 3 times breeders cup mile winner..underrated?

hes also started fav  for all but 2 of his races and that was the guineas and his QA win. who is underrating this colt? everyone knows hes a machine, look at his record!

people are still entitled to have questions and doubts about taking on horses he hasnt yet faced.

just like there are still questions with frankel such as will he get further than a mile (which i believe he will if they allow him to settle), doesnt mean hes underrated, we all know hes a machine too!!

canford is not underrated imo, everyone raves about him (for obvious reasons).


all the best!

sorry one final point.

i dont think the weight allowence makes much of a difference personally.

its there for a reason, frankel isnt simply geting weight, hes a year younger which accounts for the older horse having an advantage regarding filling out and general experience and growth. i realise frankel is a powerhouse anyway but fundamentally he is still a year younger  and with respect to this he is entitled to receive weight. the weight he receives wont entitle him to beat canford it'll be whether hes good enough!


morning!

Sorry ILWAB, I didn't mean in betting terms, I meant more in terms of ya know great horses. We know for example that Goldi will be remembered as a great racing mare, I would just hope that Canford is remembered in the same way. I think he is a great miler and I wouldn't be surprised if he beat Frankel, I won't bet on it though, I kind of feel that Canford needs one more big win to cement his legacy with the public, I reckon, whatever wins out of Canford and Frankel will be second only to STS in the last couple of years in terms of greatness. Maybe it is because he didn't win the Guineas at Newmarket, maybe it is the way Hughes rides him these days with the only just do enough style, maybe it was the timing of the Queen Anne, maybe it was the SYT debacle or Goldi carrying overweight, but I don't really feel he got the credit he deserves, He is probably the best out and out specialist miler I have seen, It is just a gut feeling.

yes canford is a fantastic horse.

like u i think frankel would have too many guns for him if ridden with restraint and confidence but impossible to be confident.

funny i always thought MAKFI was underrated. he beat both goldi in soft and canford on good. fair and square and i think its fair to say he did not like ascot as many horse dont. i feel he has not got the recognition he deserved.

his guineas win was impressive and came from exactly the same place as canford. hes rarely mantioned in the same breath as the others even tho hes beat them.

Ya a good horse, but I think hughes said Canford was taking the piss a small bit, he seemingly needs to be shaken up quite vigourously these days and Hughes maybe didn't realise it at the time.

Makfi is definetly underrated I agree, It might be the fact that he was a Tregonning cast off and the Luvvie British media don't like reminding his ex trainer about his subsequent exploits.

Makfi was found wrong after Ascot (sore throat or summat) but Canford Cliffs had improved no end by then

Makfi a fine horse in his own right

i dont think the weight allowence makes much of a difference personally.

its there for a reason, frankel isnt simply geting weight, hes a year younger which accounts for the older horse having an advantage regarding filling out and general experience and growth. i realise frankel is a powerhouse anyway but fundamentally he is still a year younger  and with respect to this he is entitled to receive weight. the weight he receives wont entitle him to beat canford it'll be whether hes good enough!

Absolutely spot on ILWAB,and as Canford has better form and proved he can beat the best he is a worthy fav,and Frankel has it all to prove.

wfa makes a huge dif in my opinion


look at the top all aged group 1's over the years and a good 3 year has a huge advantage over a good older horse. in this race 6 of the last 10 have been 3year olds.

some horses obviously improve with age, but the results show that 3year olds do have an advantage at the weights.

and the 8lb frankel is receiving here will make him very hard to beat. if he hasn't bottomed himself out

Agree with Buddelia re WFA

It is fair enough: it makes it a test of speed rather than a test of strength , in which the older horse would have an advantage.

Wrong to talk about the race like it is a handicap.

WFA will make a difference at this stage of the season, 3yo are growing at a faster rate than older horses but having said that i don't believe Frankel will need the 8lbs to beat Canford & will have to much pace for him. Goodwood will also suit Frankel much better with a mainly downhill finish. Canford is a brilliant horse but if TQ gives Frankel a better ride there can only be one result IMO.

Well as he is yet to prove himself against the top milers imo it is hard to say with confidence that there can be only one result,but like you say its your opinion.
Imo CC deserves to be fav,and beating Goldikova amongst others is far better than the average 3yr olds beaten by Frankel.Well thats what i think the 3yr olds are this year.
He will need every ounce of the allowance imo,but if they do meet it will be some race i reckon.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/0...

Oops!

Frankel impressed the Newmarket work watchers on Wednesday morning.

Henry Cecil's colt, brilliant winner of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes, worked on the Racecourse Side with two stable companions.

Newmarket correspondent Tony Elves told At The Races: "Frankel had the companionship of two lead horses, Bullet Train and Tranquil Tiger. He sat out the back and was beautifully settled and when Shane Featherstonhaugh asked him to go he just glided past and finished about four lengths in front.

"It was a brilliant bit of work, didn't take anything out of him, and was just what you want going into the Sussex Stakes."

Frankel is 11-10 with Sky Bet for the Glorious Goodwood showpiece in which he faces a mouthwatering clash with Canford Cliffs.

Think Timeform will have to either bump up CC rating after this race or take a lump off Frankels imo

Anyway where do you get the 14lb difference from?

1    FRANKEL
Sir Henry Cecil     141    
2    BLACK CAVIAR
Peter Moody             135    
3    SO YOU THINK
Aidan O'Brien             134    
4=    CANFORD CLIFFS
Richard Hannon             133

has to give him weight for age!

weight for age is accounted for in the ratings, the ratings are what the horses would be (granted maturity in line with the wfa scale) when fully mature.  As the wfa allowance for 3yo's at the time of the race over a mile is 8lbs and they have Frankel 8lbs above Canford Cliffs, they rate Frankel the same now as a 3 yr old as Canford Cliffs is now that he is fully mature.

i have a strong feeling timeform will be proved wrong

Anything that happens from now on will not prove Timeform wrong about past performances on the clock, there is NO DOUBT whatsoever that Frankel has superior figures SO FAR time-wise to anyone who does speed ratings.  Canford Cliffs last 4 wins have a highest winning distance of 1¼ lengths, therefore he cannot earn a speed figure much more than the horse finishing second, if Frankel produces a performance time-wise akin to his guineas run then Canford Cliffs will have to put up a speed figure perfomance way above what he's achieved so far, if that happens then Canford Cliffs rating will shoot up rather than Frankels figure coming down.  The times of the other round course races on that day will place the performances into the right context.

My own personal speed ratings put the average of Frankels top 4 performances on 97 on my scale, Canford Cliffs I have at 91.  These are lengths per mile and work out at a difference of 19lbs.  These also take wfa into account and as currently Frankel receives 8lb the real level weights difference I have at 11 lbs.

The question is how much higher a perfomance can Canford Cliffs achieve if he's set a harder task as his running style is such that he only does just enough to win, another question is what sort of performance will we get from Frankel at Goodwood.  I suspect we'll see Frankel kick for home between the 4f and 3f pole, and as he tied up 1f out after kicking 5f out in the St Jamess Palace maybe he will run right up to the line and post an economic performance.

who cares about weight for age. frankel should have to give canford cliffs weight, not the other way round! [;)]

ok,put it this way,if CC beats Frankel as i think,then the ratings that timeform have stated will need to be altered.

Not necessarily, it all depends on whether Frankel's performance is somehow 4 or 5 lengths inferior to his best runs. Like i said, the other round course performances will put the race into its context.  It will either need a much improved time performance from Canford Cliffs or a regressed run from Frankel in order for Canford Cliffs to finish ahead of Frankel, or a combination of both.

The wet week ahead if it runs into early the week after could see Canford pulled out imo.

If they both put in performances similar to their last races i fully expect CC to win.Of course they may well not do that but i still think CC is the better miler,he has beaten much better milers.Not Frankels fault of course,he can only beat whats put against him,but the likes of Goldikova are different league.
Hopefully they will both turn up with everything in their favour,then we will know.
By the way i think Canford is well capable of improved time performance if he needs to,again hopefully we will find out soon.

You CC followers had better check how many horses have won Sussex twice!
or
How many Queen Anne winners have won Sussex.

Are we looking at a Warning? (1989)

I am looking forward to a race to remember. Personally I am in Frankels corner. IMO no matter what Hughesie does on CC, I see Frankel pulverising them all. Queally should not be too eager to blast off four furlongs from home though. Set sail two out and it will be one almighty demolition. NOW THATS FIGHTING TALK! Lets all hope they all run to their best and come home sound.

We all know it is the duel of the season apparently between a certain new up start called FRANKEL and the best miler of the season CANFORD CLIFFS .

For me, i have to go with CANFORD CLIFFS for this one, mainly on price alone but also the fact he is older, more battle hardened and his beating of GOLDIKOVA at Royal Ascot is right at the top of the tree imo!

There is one thing that does worry me though, and i am sure it is what FRANKEL fans and bettors are snatching onto. I think we learned alot with frankel lto, he can be held up, queally took it upon himself to go for home, he was told to wait and run a conventional race but he decided 4 out to change them and almost got done,
So for this reason i can see him leading this time on weds, theres no real pace maker is there but he will be wary of CC's finishing kick off a fast pace, so the q has to be, will he run him like in the guineas (which would be right up CC's street) or will he try dictating it slowly then sprint for home and use frankels speed at the end of the race to try and win it?
My opinion is i think if he does the speed thing early on, i.e in the guineas, CC wins, if he leads and sets a slow pace, then Rio or Rajsaman could take over then we'll see a carbon copy of frankel's lto run and set it up for CC.

I do not mention the weight for age thing on purpose because although i never thought about that when typing the above, i did before i clicked the post button but never changed it. The reason for this is because jockey will know about it (obviously yawn) and i do think we will see another attempt at what we saw in the Guineas or lto with frankel. He has looked to stop within the distance but not get caught in each of his 2 runs this season, just think he is a sitting duck to CC!

Isn't the Sussex a farce of a race-in-waiting? 4 runners ffs. Queally won't want to make it and set it up for Hughes to stalk him on CC so what can we expect? Both horses reined back after the stalls open and a furlong and a half of horses pulling off a dawdling, nonsense pace. Not sure the Sussex will decide anything bar who rides the better tactical race.

think frankel will win this ...timeform have him that far clear and there should be more improvement to come ,plus sir h.will have him spot on . will be backing frankel and anything near evens will be a decent bet imo

14lbs ? Really ? What about pace and the way it shapes a race ? I bet that Timeform still believe that collateral , pounds per length,  form in God ; in Father Christmas too.

Fact : Quelly got his fractions horribly wrong in the St. James's Palace , which led to by far the best horse in the race winning by a narrow margin. Do the same in the  Sussex and  CC'll probably nail them . But if TQ gets the splits right on Wednesday they'll only be one winner, imo : Frankel .

am I mad or is the French horse not that far behind canford on a couple of formlines?  cold be an interesting forecast bet with Frankel , I've had a little bet on him to win aswell

The adjusted Timeform ratings for the Sussex are 150 Frankel and 140 Canford Cliffs. This includes the 8lb allowance Frankel receives from CC, so in fact Timeform only rate Frankel at 2lbs superior to Canford Cliffs.

have these ratings ever been wrong? or will it be explained away by the way the race is run? imo think canford cliffs is still improving.

People too hung up on WFA, it's there to make races fair in terms of maturity, strength and experience. They've had a couple of hundred years to get it right, so my guess is that they're pretty near the mark. Whatever happens in the race will have nothing to do with WFA.
My view is that Frankel has never met anything of the quality of horse that CC is, or of the horses that CC has proved himself superior to and so will be up against it. At the prices he would normally be a lay, but then again he could be anything, so it's a race I'll swerve and no doubt kick myself when CC cuts him down.

Royal Ascot over 1 mile carrying the same weight,Frankel's time was 1min 39.34 & Canford Cliffs 1min 38.38.Are you telling me 8lb extra on Canfords back is not gonna make a difference?

cie,

You do realise one was the straight course, the other the round?
Unless I am mistaken,which is more than possible.

I'm on the French horse.

what a fckin horse!

wow Frankel... watching a legend in the making...

far from trouble really looks like a sucessful gambler too me!!!

he sure can pick a wnner!

gvng frankel 8lb & a "C" 4 length vctory!

CLEVER, CLEVER PUNTER YOU ARE ;)


lolololol

WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNN!!!!!

Yes I got this one wrong, but have made enough on Canford Cliffs this year in the Lockinge and Queen Anne so he owes me nothing regardless of today's outcome

Didn't think anything on this planet could do that to a horse as good as Canford. Frankel is a true phenomenon

ps my apologies for having an opinion BEFORE the race.

^


cant win em all fft, not to worry, theres always tomorrow as they say!

14lbs???  WILL BE MORE LIKE TWENTY FOUR by the end of next season...