teolane tomorrow- looks a big lay for me.

I have her a huge 16lbs ahead on figures, MP, but obviously she's up against some lightly raced fillies who are likely to improve a great deal. You never know with these Bolger 2yos, he campaigns them hard, some can take it, some can't. Banimpire ran a very big figure on her 2nd start last year then went off the boil, until returning to form again this year. I think basically it's a question of whether Teolane will hold her form or not.

yeah that's a long way ahead mate but we've seen with these horses' that like to lead,
that when they don't get an easy lead they can throw there toys out of the pram.

anyway sticking with that lay cus after a rubbish couple of days i'm fed up with backing shorties,
going to lay them instead. i'm shrewd.

also laying this together as she always seems to find one too good.

my only back tomorrow is nathaniel. got great form with treasure beach on a track that wouldn't have suited
it at all and one of the few horses to have ever given frankel a race.

gl mate [;)]

Teolane is currently trading at around 7/4 and I won't be laying her unless she shortens up significantly (i.e. to around 5/4).  She should cope with yielding ground (most of her family handle cut well) and she has the form in the book.  Inetrobil, Sajwah and Switcher are all interesting (the latter is a particularly nice filly - big and strong, more like a colt).  Lily's Angel and Sweet Chilli have already shown a useful level of form and shape as though they will be suited by the step up to 6f.  But Teolane is still the likeliest winner.

well I laid teolane at 2.56 and she's now 2.8 something. I also laid this together at 5.5 and she's now 6.2...
could back them both back again for a profit but can't be bothered. call me arrogant but tbh i'd be amazed if either won.

mythical prince-any link for footage of nathaniel? looks a decent back

Bolger told Thommo or Rishi she's as good as Cuis Ghaire - not looked at race yet, but you have to take that on board.

i'd rather take my own opinion on board that listen too much to what trainers are saying. obrien on
so you think is a case in point.

rarely know bolger to do anything but big up his own horses. like from the clive brittan/ twiston davies school of media thought. maybe thats where obrien gets it from, as he trained under bolger.

the comparison with cuis ghaire is one of the reasons i'm laying teolane. I backed cuis ghaire in this race a few years back at a very similar short price to what teolane is.

The big difference is that cuis ghaire was far more impressive to my eyes than this filly has been. yet teolane is the same sort of short price, underservedly so in my view. she's nothing like as good as cuis ghaire was. of course I could be wrong. but in racing you have to form opinions, you can't be wishy-washy and sit on the fence.

Mr tea, I suggest you try and go on the sportinglife website. they have free video form for all racing uk tracks. barring that, try the attheraces website which cover races from ascot, etc.

Cheers mp

I do agree with you MP that you have to form your own views and back up your betting with your own opinion. My own thought is that Sir Jim hasn't been wrong or been made to look silly on too many occasions in recent years when being bullish about their ability. New Approach, Teofilo, Lush Lashes, Cuis Ghaire, etc. They normally justify his expectations within reason. Especially when running New Approach in the Derby, imagine the creditability he would have lost within the racing industry if after everything that had been said and done, the horse lost the race.

I never really understood why so many people got on his back, whether or not people believed he genuinely left the horse in at the declaration stage by mistake or not (which I do), the horse was available to back at 13/2 on the morning of the Derby when he was arguably more like a 5/2 chance given his form and breeding - it could be argued he did people a favour! People who bet antepost always run the risk so backers of other horses for the Derby that year should have just taken it on the chin in my view - I backed Mezmaar in this years Coventry at massive prices antepost but he got drawn in 1 and may as well have stayed in his horsebox - that's the way it goes, get over it.

For the record I think 7/4 for Teolane is a fair price tomorrow and any rain should only assist her chances as she would already get a mile standing on her head and at this stage in her career the stiff 6 tomorrow should be right up her street. I remember Cuis Ghaire was very well backed and went off odds on, I think Teolane will also be well backed but not as short, I would guess that she will go off around 11/8.

If she loses I will take it on the chin and think fair play with your lay MP - it's all about opinions like you say.

I'm no blind follower of trainer comments myself m p but he was far less effusive about his other runner tomorrow (which is a much bigger price to be fair) and absolutely spot on with Banimpire.

Won't be playing in the race anyway, just need to decide whether to include fav in placepot perm. Just checked and Cuis Ghaire went off at 8/11 - you may have got an early price of course, but it'll take a major gamble for Teolane to go off that short.

Don't think Bolger's in the same class as O'Brien and NTD for bigging up his horses - not least because he does n't get the same opportunity.

yes that's right. it'll hardly kill me if she wins anyway. if your judgement is good over time you will take some hits but you'll get it right more often than not.

I just think one thing i've learnt over time following horse racing is to trust your own opinions and not that of anyone else, I mean by all means take on board what is written in the media but remain sceptical. theres just so much hype in the game, that otherwise you end up being some ballydoyle drone or pricewise sheep like so many on here.

I don't think teolane has been particularly hyped, but I just don't think she's that great. I do think she's got a much better chance with the rain that's fallen though, as you've pointed out. I'd be very confident indeed of getting her beat on quick ground as I don't really think she's that quick. but on soft ground her battling qualities come well become important.

as for her rivals, inetrobil looks the most interesting. she's a huge great thing that will power through the ground, and indeed could pass for a colt.

Mythical - i would not lay a filly of Bolgers in group races - i really liked the long galloping srides of this mare in Naas the last day and whilst she didn't beat alot i think she'll improve for the step up in class - his other Filly Claoimh solis must be an outstanding EW bet

I don't think teolane has been particularly hyped, but I just don't think she's that great. I do think she's got a much better chance with the rain that's fallen though, as you've pointed out. I'd be very confident indeed of getting her beat on quick ground as I don't really think she's that quick. but on soft ground her battling qualities come well become important.
I think you're spot on with those comments, mythical.  I have watched all her races and (to my eyes at least) she hasn't actually 'quickened' in any of them - she seems to be just a very good staying type of filly who gallops the opposition into the ground rather than a filly with a sharp turn of foot.  A middle distance prospect for next year and therefore vulnerable to speedier types over tomorrow's trip of 6f.

Nice one, MP, Bolger's agressive campaigning doesn't suit all his horses.

thank you figgis. although if I really had some skill I would have backed the winner.

to be fair to bolger he hardly hyped it up- he simply said she was a filly she liked and
was "probably as good as cuis ghaire"

just think the market made her way too short.

wd

Missed the place lay though.

Very nice lay.

yeah but I only realised that after the race stu, as
I don't normally lay horses! [;)]

yep, well done - mp - you never even had a moment's worry.

thank you rease.

nathaniel