Classics 2016
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14 Jun 11
20:38
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20 Sep 06
I'm going to take a gamble and say take him on, with the brilliant Planteur. we saw today with Frankel how hype can just overwhelm
common sense in horse racing. The commentators were almost in tears that he didn't win by 10 lengths, when there was in reality
nothing wrong with his performance.
Theres probably even more hype surrounding this So You Think. According to Aiden O'Brien, this is the best horse he's ever trained.
Hmmm where have we heard this before? Last year it was St Nicholas Abbey, who apparently could do things other horses could only dream
about. Before that it was Rip Van Winkle, and so on. Of course So You Think is a very good horse indeed, but according to the media they might
as well give him the race already.
The main reason i'm taking him on is this Planteur. According to Mordin he's one of the quickest horses in the last few years. While not being
a great expert on speed ratings, Mordin did pick the winner of the oaks at a huge price so perhaps we should sit up and listen.
Watch a video of the Prix Ganay, where Planteur broke the track record, then watch a video of the Tattersalls Gold Cup that So You Think won,
and ignoring the hype around the favourite for one minute, tell me which was the most impressive. I don't think there's much in it. Certainly not
enough to explain the discrepancy in price, 1.43 for So You Think and 5.6 something for Planteur.
Rather than lay So You Think, I recommend a back of the French horse.
common sense in horse racing. The commentators were almost in tears that he didn't win by 10 lengths, when there was in reality
nothing wrong with his performance.
Theres probably even more hype surrounding this So You Think. According to Aiden O'Brien, this is the best horse he's ever trained.
Hmmm where have we heard this before? Last year it was St Nicholas Abbey, who apparently could do things other horses could only dream
about. Before that it was Rip Van Winkle, and so on. Of course So You Think is a very good horse indeed, but according to the media they might
as well give him the race already.
The main reason i'm taking him on is this Planteur. According to Mordin he's one of the quickest horses in the last few years. While not being
a great expert on speed ratings, Mordin did pick the winner of the oaks at a huge price so perhaps we should sit up and listen.
Watch a video of the Prix Ganay, where Planteur broke the track record, then watch a video of the Tattersalls Gold Cup that So You Think won,
and ignoring the hype around the favourite for one minute, tell me which was the most impressive. I don't think there's much in it. Certainly not
enough to explain the discrepancy in price, 1.43 for So You Think and 5.6 something for Planteur.
Rather than lay So You Think, I recommend a back of the French horse.
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Replies: 49
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Yeah I wouldn't bother laying it as nothing else will beat it except Planteur.
The way he beat Sarafina was impressive. He's in with a bigger chance than the odds suggest. |
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I won't hear of defeat tomorrow.
I think Twice Over might be value in the W/O market. |
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well we'll see. if so you think is the horse
they think he is, then we'll see a great display and I won't mind losing money. however I just don't think you can possibly argue that he's a value price. |
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Debussy @ 200/1 is an insult for an Arlington Million winner.
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So You Think has ran to RPRs of 128 and 129 in each of his last 4 runs. Two of those performances were in Ireland when nowhere near at his peak and had only been doing half speeds at home. There will be improvement tomorrow.
Planteur has never posted a figure as high as 128. So You Think is a stone cold certainty |
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dont forget so you think has been the best horse in a country that is beginning to show itself as the worlds best racing centre. racing in england is boring and pedestrian. i do concede however that you produce better stayers, but sprinters and classic distance races would be at the mercy of australian invaders if the prizemoney in england wasnt so meagre.
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B_H_B
14 Jun 11 23:25 Joined: 25 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 34 | Blogger: B_H_B's blog So You Think has ran to RPRs of 128 and 129 in each of his last 4 runs. Two of those performances were in Ireland when nowhere near at his peak and had only been doing half speeds at home. There will be improvement tomorrow. Planteur has never posted a figure as high as 128. So You Think is a stone cold certainty there are no such thing as certainties. |
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Agree with reasoning also sire is questionable on this track 0/30 at course and 2/41 on ny course if the horse is five or older..
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tbh the horses he has beaten i have either never heard of or are proven handicappers/Group 3 at best standard.
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the couch gave him his *NAP of the week*.
he'll have to be good to win now!  |
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If you got the $7 i did which was offered by some mug for SYT on the ante post, you wouldn't care who bloody wins.[;)]
Whilst i certainly would not be saying this is a "dead cert" for SYT, betting the near 6 for Planteur and laying under 1.50 for SYT would not be a bad bet if you target these kinds of price discrepancies over the long term, must be a positive expectation play. |
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Today will obviously be the day when we see how good this horse is.
In my humble opinion beating Zipping, a 9 year old gelding, by half a length the last twice they met doesn't look all that great. Add to the the fact that Capanologist has been beaten by everything except the milkman's horse and the 1.4 may be too short. There is also the fact that most of his form appears to be on softer ground. Won't be soft today. Now is when I sound like a muppet because I have backed Jan Vermeer at 80s. AOB said he f u c k e d him up last year so stopped with him in July. Derby favourite and doesn't stay the 12f so 10f on faster ground plus the possibility he may make the running is very interesting for me. GL all. |
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While I know he is very good, I have been surprised to see So You Think him win Group 3 and Group 1 races so easily over there.
It raises the possibility that he has actually improved with his new environment/trainer. Any concerns he won't handle hard tracks should be forgotten too. You don't get a record like he's got racing in Australia if you don't handle fast ground. Although I do think he is too short, the media hype/Aiden O'Brien's comments have influenced his price today as much as his two European performances. |
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Zipping is a very very good horse who has got better with age
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No doubting it is a very good horse, but until I see it beat anything other than glorified donkeys I can't take 1.4.
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I'd certainly rather lay than back at current prices. The oppostion aren't mugs: Twice Over 3-time G1 winner over 10f and the Lockinge will have put him spot on.; Rewilding after a long break as well, could be very interesting.
If SYT does happen to pulverise the field as a lot of people expect, then kudos to him. |
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I'm going for Twice Over. You can discard the last run over a mile as thats not his trip and he got no sort of run in Dubai. Take those pieces of form out and he would be a 5/1 chance
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I agree Zipping looks decent in Oz but for a 9 year old gelding to win 2 Group 1s and placed in 2 from about 6 starts tells the form over there at this time may not be great. He finished just in front of Holberg, Maninghar and Illustrious Blue and previously behind Profound Beauty. He may have improved but at 9, I doubt it.
I have a feeling faster ground and better opposition will undo SYT today. I could be wrong. |
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LADDIES GO BIGGEST PRICE , OMINOUS FOR FAV BACKERS
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For those interested. Currently So You Think is paying 1.04 for the win and money back the place on my local tote here in New South Wales (-:
Current odds for the win Planteur 22.10 and Twice Over 75.20 LOL I'm sure these odds will tighten up closer to start time but interesting none the less. |
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1.04!!! now thats value!
so you think may well win but don't know if i'd have the balls to pile in on him at 1.45... even less so at 1.04 [smiley:crazy] good luck to those who do. theres been quite a lot of money for rewilding today. |
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Can I have that 21.1/1 about Planteur?
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Sporting bet Australia took a bet of $200,000 at $1.40 on Monday
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Yeah fixed odds are different:
So You Think 1.3 Planteur 5.0 Twice Over and Rewilding 16.0 |
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Was only kidding, Planteur must surely start bigger than 5.0 on NSW tote though?
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100% of the money on the Aussie tote would be for SYT, hence the ridiculous odds, he will start at around 1.15 over here i think.
If you fancy the other horses i suggest you get one of you pommy mates on holiday over here to stick some on, you may get great odds. |
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Best horse to race in Oz since Might and Power. Rewilding the pick of the challengers today but unless he can sprint up 600 in 33 (he can't) he won't get near that magnificent b@stard
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Things are tightening up a bit, Planteur now 16.40
As a guide, in yesterday's King Stand, Star Witness started 3.80, the winner Prohibit paid 12.70 on the tote. |
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Best horse to race in Oz since Might and Power. Rewilding the pick of the challengers today but unless he can sprint up 600 in 33 (he can't) he won't get near that magnificent b@stard
The more I look into the opposition, the more I'm inclined to agree. So You Think has very few weaknesses, he's a tough nut to crack. |
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if anything is going to be able to outsprint the aussie horse, it's planteur, not rewilding.
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if anything is going to be able to outsprint the aussie horse, it's planteur, not rewilding.
Have to disagree, can't see past SYT with Rewilding around half a length behind with Planteur in 3rd |
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nope you were right.
correct about so you think being overhyped, just chose the wrong one to take him on with last time I listen to nick moron  |
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Adan O'brien, i have spot on the muppet show for you.
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If there is an excuse he was sent for home a long long way out in comparison to when he would have been let go in Oz...
Smart horse Rewilding, 70's matched for the Arc in the last fortnight, massive overs |
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couch napped it and carson said put ur house on it
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fwiw i thought ryan went way to soon, no doubt hes over hyped tho.
cracking race |
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couch napped it and carson said put ur house on itLaugh
Lmao bet he feels a muppet |
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couch napped it and carson said put ur house on itLaugh
Lmao bet he feels a muppet |
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I wonder what horse they'll hype up next?
the next unbeatable superstar? surprised anyone listens to this ballydoyle garbage anymore. |