Classics 2016
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A lot of the others look to be running at the wrong trip.
Roderic O'conner is a real nice horse but will need 1 1/4m to be fully effective
Native Khan although he won at a mile the race was weak and time will prove hes a 7f horse.
Casamento looks a real staying type (if he wasn't a godolphin horse now i'd still give him a chance on a straight mile)
Dream ahead looks a sprinter
That leaves Pathfork a straight mile will be ideal he has the perfect blend of pace and stamina(on fast ground).He will probably
run second to Frankel. unfortunately the odds reflect this- for this reason i doubt i will have a bet on the race.
Roderic O'conner is a real nice horse but will need 1 1/4m to be fully effective
Native Khan although he won at a mile the race was weak and time will prove hes a 7f horse.
Casamento looks a real staying type (if he wasn't a godolphin horse now i'd still give him a chance on a straight mile)
Dream ahead looks a sprinter
That leaves Pathfork a straight mile will be ideal he has the perfect blend of pace and stamina(on fast ground).He will probably
run second to Frankel. unfortunately the odds reflect this- for this reason i doubt i will have a bet on the race.
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Would Pathfork really be favourite if Frankel was not around? I can't see it myself.
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tradefair, who would your fav be without frankel?
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I for one think Pathfork has it in him to really put it up to Frankel. Im very hopeful he will be in the frame ( im on 10-1 Ew )...the price of around 5-2 without the fav is very fair imo.
Unbeaten in 3 as a year old, in which he showed an excellent cruising speed, toughness and plenty of class. The faster the better for him and the trip is HIS trip, on quick ground i cant see him out the first 3 in a race that lacks strength in depth. I make it there ll be roughly 9 to 12 runners of which half have no form to speak of.With It being trained by Harrington you know it ll be 100 % on the day where with AOB who really knows if rod o conner will be ready as even though its a classic he often uses it as a stepping stone to teh derby. If pathfork was trained by say Stoute he d be 7-2 imo and the only danger to Frankel...i think the 2 are much the best. Good luck all. |
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Having reviewed the videos again i stand by the orginal views except for pathfork. He's clearly a good horse
but doesn't have the pyhsic of a top class horse and may not improve much. The fast pace may burst his finishing kick. Casamento would have beat him in a few more strides and his stamina was running out at 7f though this was on softish ground. I've had a close look at Fury and feel he could be the one. He has a powerful physic ideally suited to a fast run straight mile. He looks unexposed having won cosily on GF at Newbury he then won a decent sales race quite well, the potenial enhancement is that he was inconvienced by the soft ground yet still won. The down side to him are that hes not clocked a decent time and needs strong handling. I don't know who's due to ride him but I would have thought it could be spencer. He'll hold him up of a fast pace and hopefully force him through to 2nd place. |
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I think Frankel will win but if Pathfork was trained by AOB or Bolger it would be half the odds. a line through Glor Na Rama leaves Frankel only a little ahead and dont forget its only run 3 times. stable vibes seems to be strong too. its hard to see who else can get near the favourite.
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think murtagh will ride Fury
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Wooten Basset would have been my choice they must be gutted he doesn't go.
Howver lets face it Frankel will win and backing something to be 2nd is the most sensible bet to have. No sense in throwing away the win part of an ew bet. Pathfork is a top class colt and in any other year he'd be very short to win this. The biggest danger to Pathfork has got to be Native Khan unless it rains. KF thinks he's very underrated and I have to agree. He caught my eye the first time I saw him and Fallon was on board. One second he seemed to be going nowhere and the next Fallon picked him up and he took off like a rocket. The distance he put between himself and the others in 1/2 dozen strides was unreal. KF incidentally thinks he's grossly underrated and thinks he'll go very close or as close as you can expect with Frankel in the race. I think what could happen to Pathfork here is a repeat of what happened to Dream Ahead in the Dewhurst when he tried to go with Frankel and burst like a balloon. That could make him easy pickings for the likes of Native Khan who could be more of a Derby type and be more likely to come late to pick up the pieces. Native Khan for me. |
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Repeating myself[:x] I need a secretary
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Casamento ;)
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I am convinced that Frankel will further enhance his reputation. He strikes me as a horse still playing around with the opposition. One thing that sticks in my mind was the look on Henry Cecils face after the Greenham. He was smiling so much, that I thought he was on something. He could hardly contain himself, stating that Frankel was only about 80% fit. Now when the best trainer around reacts in such a way, then we should all take notice. I look forward to watching this crazy horse devour them on Saturday. Mouthwatering stuff. Roderic may be the one to chase him home. at a distance of course!
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Casamento needs a bit further but he's the 2nd best close with Roderic O'Connor.
If anything else gets near Frankel i will eat my hat. |
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Mayweather, you better cover on Casemento, just incase the great frankel isnt so great.
If you hurry you might get 33-1. |
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He has only backed about 5 so far ante-post, im sure if Frankel wins he cleans up???
No guesses who! |
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I am the master, I told you all months and months ago about Frankel.
WATCH THE GIANT GO! I TOLD YOU! ;-) |
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frankel has got to be a lay at the prices ,we dont know how he will react if he gets into a head to head no holds barred battle with something so its a lay for me .
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CASAMENTO
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Why is Casamento a larger price than Native Khan, he beat him last year. Frankel / Pathfork / Cassamento / Fury in that order
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Dutching Casemento and Roddy here ...
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Casamento looks the one to out stay Frankel in a truly run race imo
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1st FRANKEL (piss it)
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I like Casamento but he was a staying type 2 year old and is unlikely to have enough pace over 1 mile on
fast ground. An even bigger problem is that Godolphin now have him and their recent record with 2 y/o s they have purchased is poor; if he was still trained in Ireland and the ground was soft he'd have a big chance and could even shake up Frankel, trained by Godolphin on fast ground gives him little chance. |
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have to agree with you tinkler, hard to see him and RC having the pace. The only horses that can possibly beat Frankel are Pathfork and the unexposed Fury. Pathfork maybe a good each way bet to nothing but I'm hoping Frankel drifts in the market on the day to 8/11 or above, time to steam in then
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does anybody in the planet give saamidd a squeak except me[;)]
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if you forget Saamidd's last run he looked good before that. The poor run was too bad to be true on soft ground so can be excused.
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Pace analysis
Rerouted is a decent quality pacemaker who has enough pace to toe them along quickly. If the pressers follow him too closely they will get dragged along too quick and blow out late on. In circumstances like this you need a jockey good enough to make adjustments or a hold up horse. there is no better judge of pace than Dettori and Moore will have to make adjustments on roderic o'conner. Fury will have the race set up perfect, will he be good enough? We'll find out tommorrow. |
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Really think Saamidd is the overlooked horse here. Take Frankel out of the picture and to me the race looks a lot like the 1000G with the top 6 or so horses having a good shout (and with all but one not having yet run as a 3 y/o a lot of questions still to be answered).
Saamidd ran a stinker in the Dewhurst but performed well previously on better ground. 16/1 w/o Frankel looks good value to me compared with the prices of those ahead of him in the market and a decent E/W bet. |
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the problem with Saamid is that its trained by Godolphin. They dont have a good recent record in the race, stable are slow starters and Dettoti has rejected it. On the face of it however I agree with you
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loving spirit ew at 170/1
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Post race anaylsis
It was impossible to predict that Queally wouldn't be able to stop Frankel from bolting early. this led to a blistering early pace. dettori showed poor judgement in trying to chase it. The Irish horses showed that they weren't very good and very much overated. Fury looked unfit and was no where near good enough. Native khan showed he is a top class 1 mile horse. I did my money hope some of you did better. |
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Dear Race Fans
Read my comment above. What did I tell you Frankel would do in the 2000 Guineas??? Yes, I knew he would. |
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