Greyhounds
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Hi all,
I’ve been working on a data-driven greyhound model over the last year mainly focused on exchange betting rather than traditional tipping.
The goal isn’t to predict winners, but to identify runners that the market consistently overrates.
The model currently looks at:
Early pace vs race setup
Trap bias interaction with running style
Recent sectional consistency
Grade competitiveness
Layoff patterns
Win profile vs market position
One interesting pattern I keep seeing is that many short-priced favourites have strong recent finishing positions but very poor winning profiles at track/distance.
Example from yesterday:
Favourite flagged as highest risk runner:
0 wins from 14 at track
Slow early pace in front-loaded race
Market shortened late
Finished 5th.
I’m tracking results over a larger sample to see if the edge holds long-term.
Interested to hear from anyone here who focuses more on laying greyhounds rather than backing — what factors have you found most reliable?
Cheers.
I’ve been working on a data-driven greyhound model over the last year mainly focused on exchange betting rather than traditional tipping.
The goal isn’t to predict winners, but to identify runners that the market consistently overrates.
The model currently looks at:
Early pace vs race setup
Trap bias interaction with running style
Recent sectional consistency
Grade competitiveness
Layoff patterns
Win profile vs market position
One interesting pattern I keep seeing is that many short-priced favourites have strong recent finishing positions but very poor winning profiles at track/distance.
Example from yesterday:
Favourite flagged as highest risk runner:
0 wins from 14 at track
Slow early pace in front-loaded race
Market shortened late
Finished 5th.
I’m tracking results over a larger sample to see if the edge holds long-term.
Interested to hear from anyone here who focuses more on laying greyhounds rather than backing — what factors have you found most reliable?
Cheers.
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IF i was you look no further just lay anything less than 7/4 in 2 bend sprints and watch your bf balance go up pal
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backing/laying doesn't matter what you do just buy high sell low
stick to just 1 track ideally otherwise you might find what is an edge at 1 track isn't at another and yes 2 bends to 4 bends almost a completely different sport be lucky  |
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Thanks both — interesting points
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Thanks both — interesting points
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Agree on the short-price sprint angle — that’s actually something I’m trying to quantify rather than just apply as a blanket rule.
Early pace clashes seem to be the biggest issue in 2-bend races, especially when multiple dogs want the rail. Also tracking results by track separately as I’m seeing signals behave differently venue to venue. Out of interest — do you rate early pace higher than draw in sprints? |
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I’m seeing signals behave differently venue to venue
yes I thought you would |
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do you rate early pace higher than draw in sprints?
would be dictated by price so its on a race by race basis |