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starship
06 Aug 23 12:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 3,002 | Blogger: starship's blog
you make a dog 4/6 what price do u bet it at
you make a horse evens what ptice do y bet it at
and the same with
6/4
2/1
5/2
3/1
chee
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Report Rigsby August 7, 2023 3:29 PM BST
I am unclear as to whether you are seeking a personal strategy answer or a mathematical one.

Personal: each of us has our own opinion of “Value” which is very subjective. In theory, any price above the price in your tissue should be value to you. The problem is that it does not make it a winning bet.
Let us suppose you think the likely winner of a race is between trap 1 and trap 2. Your tissue says Tp.1 is 6/4, Tp.2 is 5/2. The market odds are 5/4 and 3/1. What do you do? How do you feel if Tp.1 wins unbacked?

Mathematically: a bookmaker prices up a race to 135% (or any % for that matter). If you then re-calculate those prices to a 100% book, should the resultant price for your selection be the minimum price you should bet at?

I specialise in soccer overs. It is purely mathematical and a two runner race. My tissue knows what the price should be, and how it changes with decay as the game progresses. My strategy is based on my perception of value at any particular time of the game.
Report ItsMeSwaddle August 9, 2023 10:36 PM BST
Is a good thread, I would bet an evens shot 100% make 4/7 books, and would bet it 8/11 tissue on ear. 4/5 prob if despo for action.
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