Greyhounds
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Destroying of Lifes.....
No point in formbooks, no point in time trials, not point in speed ratings, no point in any of it.
Market checks says it all - 4 or 5 or 6th best on the clock, 4th or 5th or 6th best on class, 4th, 5th 6th best on recent form............ Price it up if its a 6/1 shot on your tissue, record the price 5 minutes before the off, 5.6 on here, avalance of money comes goes off 3.2 - Hacks up.............. This happens no less then 93.45% of the time based on 40,000 race samples on greyhounds and horse racing................ There is a lot of "result already known" going on here, its amazing!! you can spend all that time trying to find an edge, enjoying anlysising form, crunching numbers, looking at how it will unfold, then you relaise your easting your time, because the industries are playing out just a flamming story, u can only win at this game if you bore your life away following the market and even then u have to be flamming quick to get on, but by the time the market has shifted the price is sooooo bad that u need to make sure u get all of them to win long term, plus you have to get that mindset of trust, trusting an sport that is riddled with untrustworthy charchters.
I love sport but over 30yrs of racing,,,,,,,,,,, i've just come to realise it isnt a sport it's a story board played out by the industry to prey on punters boredom!!
No point in formbooks, no point in time trials, not point in speed ratings, no point in any of it.
Market checks says it all - 4 or 5 or 6th best on the clock, 4th or 5th or 6th best on class, 4th, 5th 6th best on recent form............ Price it up if its a 6/1 shot on your tissue, record the price 5 minutes before the off, 5.6 on here, avalance of money comes goes off 3.2 - Hacks up.............. This happens no less then 93.45% of the time based on 40,000 race samples on greyhounds and horse racing................ There is a lot of "result already known" going on here, its amazing!! you can spend all that time trying to find an edge, enjoying anlysising form, crunching numbers, looking at how it will unfold, then you relaise your easting your time, because the industries are playing out just a flamming story, u can only win at this game if you bore your life away following the market and even then u have to be flamming quick to get on, but by the time the market has shifted the price is sooooo bad that u need to make sure u get all of them to win long term, plus you have to get that mindset of trust, trusting an sport that is riddled with untrustworthy charchters.
I love sport but over 30yrs of racing,,,,,,,,,,, i've just come to realise it isnt a sport it's a story board played out by the industry to prey on punters boredom!!
Show More
Irishone - Nope fella - if you believe the formbook have any bearing on the markets then your just lying to yourself.
No I definitely don't follow the form. You have stats that show 93% of races are won by greyhounds that are backed in ???. 40000 races is about a year and a halfs worth of races , what period of time are you talking about.Where were these races run ? Sorry but that surely cannot be your hypothesis ?
Lifes, anlysising, flamming, charchters, 93.45% , 30 years of racing, never mind I admire his passion.
if its 93% of the time how the hell can you not get on thats like a 1/12 chance ,classic
Sorry TOP3MAN, but this is completely untrue... (and that's the polite version !!!)
Across my 3 very large monitors i can see RPost shows from Ladbrokes/Hills, video feeds, betfair market, Timeform, ATR, race/form cards from the track, BetAngel, today's results ... with one of the screens dedicated to my own 3 year analysis excel spreadsheets of every single race taken from the Betfair SP pages (not for sale - it's taken me years and years of hard graft) which looks at trends (favs, market moves, time between appearances, age, going, sex, trap numbers ... you name it, i've got it) and your claims just don't stand up to any sort of analysis.
There HAS been a recent trend which is explainable though. Money on Betfair (which you can see lining up on BetAngel before it hits your limited 3 columns of lays, 3 columns of backing on Betfair) is now influencing the bookies pricing more than ever, which in turn influences backers on Betfair, which in turn makes the bookies change their odds.
In a nutshell, market moves have become MUCH more exaggerated over the last 3 weeks - but this is because the bookies are led by Betfair and some punters backing on Betfair are led by movements in the bookies odds.
Watching carefully you can distinguish quite easily (by timings) between genuine money and the "sheep" money which is following market moves... but because of the exaggeration of market moves you are getting a situation where layers are more careful and quicker to remove (downprice) on Betfair which makes the resilience against market moves weaker.
It has always been excellent advice that if you are laying a greyhound in a race at say 6/1 and you can see a bet trying/waiting to get on of say £200 (easily done with BetAngel) then be VERY cautious and VERY sure of your analysis of the race. If the price is going down because of loads and loads of bets of £10 - £20 then you can usually work out why people are backing it - it could be tipped on RPGTV or napped in the Post etc etc or just priced over generously. The other night a trainer tipped one of his own dogs on RPGTV and within 30 seconds the price had gone from 8.5 to 5.3 on Betfair -- it ran completely to form (in fact a better time than usual) and came 3rd (not even a close 3rd) -- but there's often a very good reason for a market move apart from people being "in the know"
Whilst we are talking about trends ... we've just had a 12 week "lay-off" ... try looking at the form of bitches when they come back after being in season - that will show you how long, and the pattern of how long it takes a greyhound to return from such a lay-off ... then apply that pattern across the board and most importantly look at the historical form going right the way back to a greyhounds very first race.
Of course, if you ARE correct in what you post then why not just back the market movers and lay the market drifters - after all, you claim "This happens no less then 93.45% of the time based on 40,000 race samples" ? However, do that and i can guarantee you'd be broke within a month
If i remember past posts .. aren't you a favourite backer ? We disproved your previous claims long ago and i'm unsure why you've come back with this new one.
Across my 3 very large monitors i can see RPost shows from Ladbrokes/Hills, video feeds, betfair market, Timeform, ATR, race/form cards from the track, BetAngel, today's results ... with one of the screens dedicated to my own 3 year analysis excel spreadsheets of every single race taken from the Betfair SP pages (not for sale - it's taken me years and years of hard graft) which looks at trends (favs, market moves, time between appearances, age, going, sex, trap numbers ... you name it, i've got it) and your claims just don't stand up to any sort of analysis.
There HAS been a recent trend which is explainable though. Money on Betfair (which you can see lining up on BetAngel before it hits your limited 3 columns of lays, 3 columns of backing on Betfair) is now influencing the bookies pricing more than ever, which in turn influences backers on Betfair, which in turn makes the bookies change their odds.
In a nutshell, market moves have become MUCH more exaggerated over the last 3 weeks - but this is because the bookies are led by Betfair and some punters backing on Betfair are led by movements in the bookies odds.
Watching carefully you can distinguish quite easily (by timings) between genuine money and the "sheep" money which is following market moves... but because of the exaggeration of market moves you are getting a situation where layers are more careful and quicker to remove (downprice) on Betfair which makes the resilience against market moves weaker.
It has always been excellent advice that if you are laying a greyhound in a race at say 6/1 and you can see a bet trying/waiting to get on of say £200 (easily done with BetAngel) then be VERY cautious and VERY sure of your analysis of the race. If the price is going down because of loads and loads of bets of £10 - £20 then you can usually work out why people are backing it - it could be tipped on RPGTV or napped in the Post etc etc or just priced over generously. The other night a trainer tipped one of his own dogs on RPGTV and within 30 seconds the price had gone from 8.5 to 5.3 on Betfair -- it ran completely to form (in fact a better time than usual) and came 3rd (not even a close 3rd) -- but there's often a very good reason for a market move apart from people being "in the know"
Whilst we are talking about trends ... we've just had a 12 week "lay-off" ... try looking at the form of bitches when they come back after being in season - that will show you how long, and the pattern of how long it takes a greyhound to return from such a lay-off ... then apply that pattern across the board and most importantly look at the historical form going right the way back to a greyhounds very first race.
Of course, if you ARE correct in what you post then why not just back the market movers and lay the market drifters - after all, you claim "This happens no less then 93.45% of the time based on 40,000 race samples" ? However, do that and i can guarantee you'd be broke within a month
If i remember past posts .. aren't you a favourite backer ? We disproved your previous claims long ago and i'm unsure why you've come back with this new one.
PS ... there's also another reason for large market moves the opposite way which ALSO aren't about anyone being "in the know"
There was a dog the other night that drifted from 3/1 to 12/1.
It was drawn in Trap 5 when there was a definite visible bias towards inside tracks.
The other runners were all improving and moving up the grades but had never yet won in that particular grade
Trap 5 was the only winner in that grade BUT in 3 years it had never finished in the top 3 in ANY race above the grade it was running in.
Trap 5 was the only dog to have won its last race
Trap 5 was obviously priced based on being the only dog that had ever won at that grade (and recently) but this ignored the fact that the others were improving and had only been beaten by decent other dogs and Trap 5 had reached it's plateau (found its level)
Trap 5 was a a poor starter but late finisher (on a night when there was bias against the outside traps it was never going to get the traction it needed to get past/through the others)
All of Trap 5's wins had come when the track was dry (check the time adjustment figures) and tonight the track was wet
Trap 5's times in the dry were lower than other dogs' times in the wet !!
I'd priced the dog on my sheet at 10/1 outside of the six.
I understood why a cursory glance at the limited Racing Post "stats" had made it look a better prospect than it was
I took out every price from 3/1 to 9/1 in one shot (yes, i have the money need to do that in the working account i have) and kept on taking everything that cropped up at or under 9/1
Betfair price lengthened VERY quickly (solely down to me)
Therefore the bookies price drifted accordingly .. because they were following Betfair .. but Betfair was never going to go below 9/1 because i was mopping up everything that cropped up below that
When i'd got to a certain point in terms of liability i stopped laying it. You would expect people to come back and back it but in the current climate (Betfair drifting and therefore bookies drifting) no-one would touch it
Was this due to anyone being "in the know" ? No
Was this due to someone with inside knowledge knowing that the dog had looked lethargic at home ? No
Was this due to ANYTHING rather than some maniacal old geezer sat at home watching and analysing for 14 hours a day taking and sticking by his opinion and his own trust in his reading of the form ? No
Now, i'm sure there are others out there doing the same but backing dogs rather than laying them. So "being in the know" doesn't necessarily account for that much if you know the tracks you specialise in (and the grades) when it comes to market moves.
Some of the above will come as a shock to those who know that i usually only back in HCaps -- ie when i can pitch my reading of the form against that of another fallible human being (ie the racing manager / grader). Me against him, my knowledge against his knowledge .. BRING IT ON !!
But there ain't no HCaps at the moment.
There was a dog the other night that drifted from 3/1 to 12/1.
It was drawn in Trap 5 when there was a definite visible bias towards inside tracks.
The other runners were all improving and moving up the grades but had never yet won in that particular grade
Trap 5 was the only winner in that grade BUT in 3 years it had never finished in the top 3 in ANY race above the grade it was running in.
Trap 5 was the only dog to have won its last race
Trap 5 was obviously priced based on being the only dog that had ever won at that grade (and recently) but this ignored the fact that the others were improving and had only been beaten by decent other dogs and Trap 5 had reached it's plateau (found its level)
Trap 5 was a a poor starter but late finisher (on a night when there was bias against the outside traps it was never going to get the traction it needed to get past/through the others)
All of Trap 5's wins had come when the track was dry (check the time adjustment figures) and tonight the track was wet
Trap 5's times in the dry were lower than other dogs' times in the wet !!
I'd priced the dog on my sheet at 10/1 outside of the six.
I understood why a cursory glance at the limited Racing Post "stats" had made it look a better prospect than it was
I took out every price from 3/1 to 9/1 in one shot (yes, i have the money need to do that in the working account i have) and kept on taking everything that cropped up at or under 9/1
Betfair price lengthened VERY quickly (solely down to me)
Therefore the bookies price drifted accordingly .. because they were following Betfair .. but Betfair was never going to go below 9/1 because i was mopping up everything that cropped up below that
When i'd got to a certain point in terms of liability i stopped laying it. You would expect people to come back and back it but in the current climate (Betfair drifting and therefore bookies drifting) no-one would touch it
Was this due to anyone being "in the know" ? No
Was this due to someone with inside knowledge knowing that the dog had looked lethargic at home ? No
Was this due to ANYTHING rather than some maniacal old geezer sat at home watching and analysing for 14 hours a day taking and sticking by his opinion and his own trust in his reading of the form ? No
Now, i'm sure there are others out there doing the same but backing dogs rather than laying them. So "being in the know" doesn't necessarily account for that much if you know the tracks you specialise in (and the grades) when it comes to market moves.
Some of the above will come as a shock to those who know that i usually only back in HCaps -- ie when i can pitch my reading of the form against that of another fallible human being (ie the racing manager / grader). Me against him, my knowledge against his knowledge .. BRING IT ON !!
But there ain't no HCaps at the moment.
PPS ... don't for one moment think it's easy to make a living at this game... but that's because of the mental fortitude and discipline needed and the amount of time and effort required
Do you know how difficult it can be to sit watching live races for 12 hours (and analysing tomorrow's form) and perhaps not have a single involvement for example ?
Could you walk away from a loss and not chase it (perhaps for 2 or 3 days) until another golden opportunity came up ?
Can you not get fed up and depressed when your "sure thing" gets taken out by some rogue on the home straight deciding to try and bite it as happened last weekend when your dog was about to pass it at twice it's speed ?
That's enough for now ... anyway, i disagree ... pick your class of races, concentrate on a few set tracks (your choice it doesn't matter) and IN MY OPINION on that basis it's all about 80% form/history etc .. 15% luck in running .. 5% being "in the know"
The form i can do
The "luck in running" you can account for and bring down substantially
The "being in the know" is something i have no control over ... but if you read all of the above carefully you can learn to spot it and take account of it.
Time for me to crawl back into the shadows ... be lucky all.
Do you know how difficult it can be to sit watching live races for 12 hours (and analysing tomorrow's form) and perhaps not have a single involvement for example ?
Could you walk away from a loss and not chase it (perhaps for 2 or 3 days) until another golden opportunity came up ?
Can you not get fed up and depressed when your "sure thing" gets taken out by some rogue on the home straight deciding to try and bite it as happened last weekend when your dog was about to pass it at twice it's speed ?
That's enough for now ... anyway, i disagree ... pick your class of races, concentrate on a few set tracks (your choice it doesn't matter) and IN MY OPINION on that basis it's all about 80% form/history etc .. 15% luck in running .. 5% being "in the know"
The form i can do
The "luck in running" you can account for and bring down substantially
The "being in the know" is something i have no control over ... but if you read all of the above carefully you can learn to spot it and take account of it.
Time for me to crawl back into the shadows ... be lucky all.
jesus this guy makes me feel like im a complete novice at the game
Not really shiner, his way or your way , you end up with a view.
Last thing a successful punter needs is publicity.
Discipline doesnt stop at punting
Leaving the shadows and planting seeds like those above suggests a charitable motive perhaps , but I can't help wondering why one would advertise a successful route to profit having spent so much time and stress trying to get there .
Last thing a successful punter needs is publicity.
Discipline doesnt stop at punting
Leaving the shadows and planting seeds like those above suggests a charitable motive perhaps , but I can't help wondering why one would advertise a successful route to profit having spent so much time and stress trying to get there .
Shiner ... IrishOne is quite correct. There are so many ways to approach this game. If something works for you then stick with it. My way isn't necessarily the correct way - it's just what i said ... "my way". I posted it because i don't believe at all what the original poster said. I don't believe there's any mass conspiracy and i don't think the sport is as crooked as he makes out.
In fact i'd go further than that and say that in over 90% of races (forget sprint races in this) then if AFTER the race you watched the video with the full form in front of you you can identify (with hindsight) exactly why the winner won or why it ran as it did. To me that alone proves that being "in the know" isn't the important thing.
Also remember that i'm not a purist ... i don't back or lay in Open Races (there are too many unknowns for me) ... in fact give me (at the moment because there ain't no handicaps) an A4, A5, or A6 at a crappy track and i'm as happy as a pig in muck
In fact if you read it all then all i have done is what many many others do intuitively ... it's just that i've processed it down in this post to illustrate a narrative to the methodology most form backers use.
I bet you can look at a dog, look at its form and think to yourself "that's too short" or "that's too long" when you look at the odds. What you are doing is probably exactly what i'm doing without actually realising it.
What i don't get out of betting on greyhounds is something i'm jealous of most on here. I don't get enjoyment from it and haven't for over 20 years now. It's a job. I treat it as a job and since i have no kids and the missus passed away a long time ago it's a way of staying sane and solvent and i have the time to spend "too much time" on it.
As i alluded to ... i USUALLY make my money by backing in Greyhound Handicaps. My judgement versus that of the grader/racing manager (and i haven't mentioned what my approach is on those races) .. it's a battle of wits as far as i can see it.
In fact i'd go further than that and say that in over 90% of races (forget sprint races in this) then if AFTER the race you watched the video with the full form in front of you you can identify (with hindsight) exactly why the winner won or why it ran as it did. To me that alone proves that being "in the know" isn't the important thing.
Also remember that i'm not a purist ... i don't back or lay in Open Races (there are too many unknowns for me) ... in fact give me (at the moment because there ain't no handicaps) an A4, A5, or A6 at a crappy track and i'm as happy as a pig in muck
In fact if you read it all then all i have done is what many many others do intuitively ... it's just that i've processed it down in this post to illustrate a narrative to the methodology most form backers use.
I bet you can look at a dog, look at its form and think to yourself "that's too short" or "that's too long" when you look at the odds. What you are doing is probably exactly what i'm doing without actually realising it.
What i don't get out of betting on greyhounds is something i'm jealous of most on here. I don't get enjoyment from it and haven't for over 20 years now. It's a job. I treat it as a job and since i have no kids and the missus passed away a long time ago it's a way of staying sane and solvent and i have the time to spend "too much time" on it.
As i alluded to ... i USUALLY make my money by backing in Greyhound Handicaps. My judgement versus that of the grader/racing manager (and i haven't mentioned what my approach is on those races) .. it's a battle of wits as far as i can see it.
Shiner ... IrishOne is quite correct. There are so many ways to approach this game. If something works for you then stick with it. My way isn't necessarily the correct way - it's just what i said ... "my way". I posted it because i don't believe at all what the original poster said. I don't believe there's any mass conspiracy and i don't think the sport is as crooked as he makes out.
In fact i'd go further than that and say that in over 90% of races (forget sprint races in this) then if AFTER the race you watched the video with the full form in front of you you can identify (with hindsight) exactly why the winner won or why it ran as it did. To me that alone proves that being "in the know" isn't the important thing.
Also remember that i'm not a purist ... i don't back or lay in Open Races (there are too many unknowns for me) ... in fact give me (at the moment because there ain't no handicaps) an A4, A5, or A6 at a crappy track and i'm as happy as a pig in muck
In fact if you read it all then all i have done is what many many others do intuitively ... it's just that i've processed it down in this post to illustrate a narrative to the methodology most form backers use.
I bet you can look at a dog, look at its form and think to yourself "that's too short" or "that's too long" when you look at the odds. What you are doing is probably exactly what i'm doing without actually realising it.
What i don't get out of betting on greyhounds is something i'm jealous of most on here. I don't get enjoyment from it and haven't for over 20 years now. It's a job. I treat it as a job and since i have no kids and the missus passed away a long time ago it's a way of staying sane and solvent and i have the time to spend "too much time" on it.
As i alluded to ... i USUALLY make my money by backing in Greyhound Handicaps. My judgement versus that of the grader/racing manager (and i haven't mentioned what my approach is on those races) .. it's a battle of wits as far as i can see it.
In fact i'd go further than that and say that in over 90% of races (forget sprint races in this) then if AFTER the race you watched the video with the full form in front of you you can identify (with hindsight) exactly why the winner won or why it ran as it did. To me that alone proves that being "in the know" isn't the important thing.
Also remember that i'm not a purist ... i don't back or lay in Open Races (there are too many unknowns for me) ... in fact give me (at the moment because there ain't no handicaps) an A4, A5, or A6 at a crappy track and i'm as happy as a pig in muck
In fact if you read it all then all i have done is what many many others do intuitively ... it's just that i've processed it down in this post to illustrate a narrative to the methodology most form backers use.
I bet you can look at a dog, look at its form and think to yourself "that's too short" or "that's too long" when you look at the odds. What you are doing is probably exactly what i'm doing without actually realising it.
What i don't get out of betting on greyhounds is something i'm jealous of most on here. I don't get enjoyment from it and haven't for over 20 years now. It's a job. I treat it as a job and since i have no kids and the missus passed away a long time ago it's a way of staying sane and solvent and i have the time to spend "too much time" on it.
As i alluded to ... i USUALLY make my money by backing in Greyhound Handicaps. My judgement versus that of the grader/racing manager (and i haven't mentioned what my approach is on those races) .. it's a battle of wits as far as i can see it.
Shiner ... IrishOne is quite correct. There are so many ways to approach this game. If something works for you then stick with it. My way isn't necessarily the correct way - it's just what i said ... "my way". I posted it because i don't believe at all what the original poster said. I don't believe there's any mass conspiracy and i don't think the sport is as crooked as he makes out.
In fact i'd go further than that and say that in over 90% of races (forget sprint races in this) then if AFTER the race you watched the video with the full form in front of you you can identify (with hindsight) exactly why the winner won or why it ran as it did. To me that alone proves that being "in the know" isn't the important thing.
Also remember that i'm not a purist ... i don't back or lay in Open Races (there are too many unknowns for me) ... in fact give me (at the moment because there ain't no handicaps) an A4, A5, or A6 at a crappy track and i'm as happy as a pig in muck
In fact if you read it all then all i have done is what many many others do intuitively ... it's just that i've processed it down in this post to illustrate a narrative to the methodology most form backers use.
I bet you can look at a dog, look at its form and think to yourself "that's too short" or "that's too long" when you look at the odds. What you are doing is probably exactly what i'm doing without actually realising it.
What i don't get out of betting on greyhounds is something i'm jealous of most on here. I don't get enjoyment from it and haven't for over 20 years now. It's a job. I treat it as a job and since i have no kids and the missus passed away a long time ago it's a way of staying sane and solvent and i have the time to spend "too much time" on it.
As i alluded to ... i USUALLY make my money by backing in Greyhound Handicaps. My judgement versus that of the grader/racing manager (and i haven't mentioned what my approach is on those races) .. it's a battle of wits as far as i can see it.
In fact i'd go further than that and say that in over 90% of races (forget sprint races in this) then if AFTER the race you watched the video with the full form in front of you you can identify (with hindsight) exactly why the winner won or why it ran as it did. To me that alone proves that being "in the know" isn't the important thing.
Also remember that i'm not a purist ... i don't back or lay in Open Races (there are too many unknowns for me) ... in fact give me (at the moment because there ain't no handicaps) an A4, A5, or A6 at a crappy track and i'm as happy as a pig in muck
In fact if you read it all then all i have done is what many many others do intuitively ... it's just that i've processed it down in this post to illustrate a narrative to the methodology most form backers use.
I bet you can look at a dog, look at its form and think to yourself "that's too short" or "that's too long" when you look at the odds. What you are doing is probably exactly what i'm doing without actually realising it.
What i don't get out of betting on greyhounds is something i'm jealous of most on here. I don't get enjoyment from it and haven't for over 20 years now. It's a job. I treat it as a job and since i have no kids and the missus passed away a long time ago it's a way of staying sane and solvent and i have the time to spend "too much time" on it.
As i alluded to ... i USUALLY make my money by backing in Greyhound Handicaps. My judgement versus that of the grader/racing manager (and i haven't mentioned what my approach is on those races) .. it's a battle of wits as far as i can see it.
Blimey .. i have no idea why it posted that 3 times.
IrishOne ... i honestly don't think i've revealed anything really .. just a little bit about how to read form to counteract the daft original post
I started off all those years ago with one of those books you could buy at tracks "How to read Greyhound racing form" .... and then i started thinking about what each of the variables and bits of information could do to help you.
What i really really want is for more people to enjoy Greyhound racing and see that if you approach it methodically then it's not difficult to make money. That leads to stronger markets and more fairness all round
When Betfair says 5% of its punter regularly make money then most people think that's atrocious ... i don't. If there are 1 million Betfair users then 5% is 50,000 people
IrishOne ... i honestly don't think i've revealed anything really .. just a little bit about how to read form to counteract the daft original post
I started off all those years ago with one of those books you could buy at tracks "How to read Greyhound racing form" .... and then i started thinking about what each of the variables and bits of information could do to help you.
What i really really want is for more people to enjoy Greyhound racing and see that if you approach it methodically then it's not difficult to make money. That leads to stronger markets and more fairness all round
When Betfair says 5% of its punter regularly make money then most people think that's atrocious ... i don't. If there are 1 million Betfair users then 5% is 50,000 people
Blimey .. i have no idea why it posted that 3 times.
IrishOne ... i honestly don't think i've revealed anything really .. just a little bit about how to read form to counteract the daft original post
I started off all those years ago with one of those books you could buy at tracks "How to read Greyhound racing form" .... and then i started thinking about what each of the variables and bits of information could do to help you.
What i really really want is for more people to enjoy Greyhound racing and see that if you approach it methodically then it's not difficult to make money. That leads to stronger markets and more fairness all round
When Betfair says 5% of its punter regularly make money then most people think that's atrocious ... i don't. If there are 1 million Betfair users then 5% is 50,000 people
IrishOne ... i honestly don't think i've revealed anything really .. just a little bit about how to read form to counteract the daft original post
I started off all those years ago with one of those books you could buy at tracks "How to read Greyhound racing form" .... and then i started thinking about what each of the variables and bits of information could do to help you.
What i really really want is for more people to enjoy Greyhound racing and see that if you approach it methodically then it's not difficult to make money. That leads to stronger markets and more fairness all round
When Betfair says 5% of its punter regularly make money then most people think that's atrocious ... i don't. If there are 1 million Betfair users then 5% is 50,000 people
Okay .. i realise why it's posting multiples now ... okay ... last bit.
What is "making a living" at this game ? That's what newcomers always want to know
To me £30,000 a year profit is what people should be aiming for.
If you have a decent job at £40,000 a year then you'd take home £30,841.80 after tax and NI etc
So £30,000
Sound impossible ?
Work 6 days a week ... 50 weeks a year ... that's 300 days x £100/day = £30,000 a year
So you are trying to make £100/day
Working 10 hours at it a day then you are trying to make £10/hour
Are you honestly telling me that anyone can't get to the point where they can make £10 profit each hour out of greyhound racing when there may be (easily) over 10 separate races per hour ?
All it takes is a hell of a lot of hard work and most of all, above everything else ... discipline !!!!
So .. does someone really want a **** life sat in front of a computer screen watching race after race after race with all the fun removed ? To spend hours preparing for a race only to then find that everything you've expected in terms of the market is bollox ? ... and then be prepared to walk away from that ? and wait ... and not waste a single penny of that money you've worked hard for .. that £10/hour you grafted for ? Certainly not to throw it away on a feeling or a whim ?
Well that's where it gets difficult .... you can earn more working in an Amazon warehouse (@ £10 hour) ... but they won't give you 60 hours a week work and then the Government wants to take tax and NI from you.... and it'll kill you. And you can't drink tea all day, or smoke **** whenever you want, or talk to the dog, or kick the cat, or listen to music
What is "making a living" at this game ? That's what newcomers always want to know
To me £30,000 a year profit is what people should be aiming for.
If you have a decent job at £40,000 a year then you'd take home £30,841.80 after tax and NI etc
So £30,000
Sound impossible ?
Work 6 days a week ... 50 weeks a year ... that's 300 days x £100/day = £30,000 a year
So you are trying to make £100/day
Working 10 hours at it a day then you are trying to make £10/hour
Are you honestly telling me that anyone can't get to the point where they can make £10 profit each hour out of greyhound racing when there may be (easily) over 10 separate races per hour ?
All it takes is a hell of a lot of hard work and most of all, above everything else ... discipline !!!!
So .. does someone really want a **** life sat in front of a computer screen watching race after race after race with all the fun removed ? To spend hours preparing for a race only to then find that everything you've expected in terms of the market is bollox ? ... and then be prepared to walk away from that ? and wait ... and not waste a single penny of that money you've worked hard for .. that £10/hour you grafted for ? Certainly not to throw it away on a feeling or a whim ?
Well that's where it gets difficult .... you can earn more working in an Amazon warehouse (@ £10 hour) ... but they won't give you 60 hours a week work and then the Government wants to take tax and NI from you.... and it'll kill you. And you can't drink tea all day, or smoke **** whenever you want, or talk to the dog, or kick the cat, or listen to music
ridiculous tat "smoke ****.s." got censored ...
"smoke cigs whenever you want". Okay Mr Censor ?
"smoke cigs whenever you want". Okay Mr Censor ?
I agree with you there on quite a few points.
Discipline is the key.
I went from backing at two quid a race to ten quid a race in 15 years, over a million bets.I
Never wanted any and never asked for any kudos and never would have expected any from the sharks on here that we swim with.
Got loads of stats and a bigger wi11ie than the o p with over 200,000 snippets of betfair info.
Spent most of the profit from winning years, at Cheltenham or Galway, two festivals I never miss,two places where one can ditch the discipline.
Fortunately in the background I had a wife saving pennies and paying off the mortgages.
Its is all about discipline, and it is a life long lesson.
Discipline is the key.
I went from backing at two quid a race to ten quid a race in 15 years, over a million bets.I
Never wanted any and never asked for any kudos and never would have expected any from the sharks on here that we swim with.
Got loads of stats and a bigger wi11ie than the o p with over 200,000 snippets of betfair info.
Spent most of the profit from winning years, at Cheltenham or Galway, two festivals I never miss,two places where one can ditch the discipline.
Fortunately in the background I had a wife saving pennies and paying off the mortgages.
Its is all about discipline, and it is a life long lesson.
on average you are saying you had around 200 bets a day for 15 years.....not sure how discipline can be your key.....
Yes I agree winja, its difficult to fathom. With bots you can hit up to 30\40 bets per race in the 5 minutes before the off. So 200 bets a day average would really be no problem. The discipline comes as mahoney alludes to with regard the boredom and the social factors. It is fecking boring watching up to one hundred dog races a day. I have had to keep an eye on the bots all day. A dysfunctional hare, or a dog turning round in a box are kinds of delays that can kill your overall profit in an instance. So its a case of having to watch whats going on.The social challenge comes from forums such as this , that can throw up information that you think you have'nt factored in. Or on rpgtv. Where you hear a pundit give out kennel info which immediately puts the kybosh on the bets you have been placing. Then theres racing tv , at the races going off on another screen , where you get information about a horse and its running right in front of you , do you walk away or do you chalk it up as a "leisure" expense if you come unstuck ? I admire the fellahs who spend their lives watching videos and looking for ricks from bookies, its just as hard as collecting the stats, setting up the algorithms and watching the bots. Its actually a great relief to hang out at cheltenham or galway and do what you like, backing yours or your mates opinion, enjoying any short term profit plus the banter and the beer, rather than a cup of tea and a highly researched profitable long term statistical edge.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539