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casemoney
06 Jun 15 22:23
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Aug 06
| Topic/replies: 41,658 | Blogger: casemoney's blog
1 Ibeta Rocks
2 Quitely
3 riverside pat
4 Geelo Vegas
5 Salonika
6 Diego Flight

1 bad moon rising
2 paradise maverick
3 JT Berlin
4 Teds last
5 Coolavanny ****
6 Droopys Nidge

1 swift keith
2 evanta fantasy
3 evanta evita
4 Jolly tricks
5 Leam Turbo
6 wot no fizz

1 on alert
2 kentish man
3 ascot wooodie
4 Lenson sanches
5 Making paper
6 clares wonder

1 farloe blitz
2 coolavanny gooch
3 newinn yolo
4 eden the kid
5 Ballymac Loch
6 Boyneside fun

1 glenpadden lord
2 roxholme kid
3 millwards davy
4 here we go
5 Roxholme Ted
6 Romany Rouge

1 go ahead
2 rio quattro
3 Blone Nipper
4 Lenson Tiggy
5 Tynwald Bish
6 shot gun harley

1 Droopys ward
2 gay time hawk
3 bubbly Beuaty
4 Jetstream sound
5 Viking Jack
6 Jt Jet
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Report Addy_D June 9, 2015 1:25 PM BST
has to be.

actual prices at the track and earlies much shorter than your 100% projection? dont bet then ffs.

an outcome of an even can only happen 100% of the time. i cant get heads 11 times if i only flip the coin 10 times ffs.

if you cant beat the price on earlies, or at the track, you dont bet its as simple as that, unless you are doing it for fun and have no asperations or expectations to win as a punter long term.

i dont just price to 100% then bet from there. all prices, me, pf, you, odds compilers, are a guestimate. no one can know how often something will truly happen. therefore i use an "edge" or a "margin of error". i wont bet 11/10 something i made evens to 100% - i need a bigger edge than the 2%. i would need 5/4 minimum, for a one point bet. evens dictates 50% chance. 5/4 44% so i have the 5% edge built in. i would then approximately need a further 3% for each point bet. 6/4 would be required (40%) for me to have a 2pt bet. 7/4 required (36%) for a 3pt bet. 2/1 (33%) for a 4pt bet etc.
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 1:27 PM BST
Think i need a degree in mathematics to understand that little lot! Laugh. Maybe you would like to educate me over a beer at Wimbo next Tuesday?
Report Winja June 9, 2015 1:38 PM BST
worldcitizen  • June 9, 2015 7:06 AM BST 
Are you coming out Mr Woodmanchester ?

Opportuning again woody!!
Report Addy_D June 9, 2015 1:40 PM BST
tbh woody absolutely anyone can pick winners - apart from me over the weekend it seems - not many know how to punt properly or bet properly. the whole point of betting is because bookmakers think an outcome has X percentage chance of winning. if you think its greater the odds are in your favour. you might not win but if you did it 1000 times you should.

knowing how to punt i would say is far more important. how many times do people have winning run, increase their stakes because they feel good and feel they have plenty, have bets they wouldnt do normally, then have a bad run when they lose it all and bet bigger so they lose even more and are worse off than when they started the run. its far more important.
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 1:42 PM BST
Did respond but my post got deleted! Best way to find out is ask the 50 or so woman friends ive had, if i'm gay or not Laugh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 9, 2015 1:43 PM BST
playa Grin
Report Addy_D June 9, 2015 1:46 PM BST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jF9ZFDLvm8
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 1:51 PM BST
Yes Addy, i know the betting percentages but would rather bet what i fancy, rather than mathematically one better than another. Having a good year if i break even. Gets me out visiting tracks and i find greyhound racing fun and exciting. Especially when what i consider to be the best dogs winning, usually bet 8/10 towards top end of the market
Report noflapleft June 9, 2015 2:11 PM BST
Can't have ward @ evens nuts
I made jack 11/8 ward 9/4
He must be evens to lead round
Even ward will have to go some to peg him back

Thought go ahead could pick up the leader in messy race
Roxholme kid looks to have good chance
Clare's wonder with a 1-6 saver
GL peeps
Report noflapleft June 9, 2015 2:13 PM BST
LOL only 50 woody you need to get out more Surprised
Report lanza June 9, 2015 2:48 PM BST
im not sure if its good or bad, this aint shelbourne park after all that myslef and pf are thinking simialr this round LaughCoolDevil on clares wonder and vj.  Would have beaten patrick, knocking over the poor soul in the wheelchair myself when i saw 5/2 vj.

if woody doesnt get you, pf will. LaughCoolDevilShockedSadWink

haha.
Report Winja June 9, 2015 3:32 PM BST
im not saying it wouldn't be interesting to delve into the murky world of woodies wicked ways (with the ladies) but in truth im more interested in who wants your tissue early in the morning........surely not irishone!!!!
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 3:58 PM BST
My dog racing friend. Just a guide. Been pretty much spot on with earlies lately. Jennifer, Alison, Phillipa, Sue, i wrote this song for you! Laugh
Report hunglikeadonkey June 9, 2015 3:59 PM BST
lol winja Laugh
Report hunglikeadonkey June 9, 2015 4:03 PM BST
Richard Birch and Pat Kelly currently disputing favoritism in Woodys 'friend' market.
Report noflapleft June 9, 2015 4:08 PM BST
Funny I was watching porno flick bloke had Man City hat on
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 5:04 PM BST
Well, I've turned 50 now Flappy, reckon by the time PF reaches that milestone, he'll have more tales to tell than me! Laugh. 50 females is bragging. A fair few nearer the mark but I'm a one-women man now Happy
Report worldcitizen June 9, 2015 5:28 PM BST
"I'm a one-women man now"  surely you mean "A one-woman man" Mr Woodmanchester , is that in a drag act ?
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 6:02 PM BST
Think it means I'm a man who's only interested in one woman?
Report patrick starr June 9, 2015 7:14 PM BST
thread of the derby so far!  LaughCrazy
Report patrick starr June 9, 2015 7:18 PM BST


pf explaining VALUE to woody...again
Report lanza June 9, 2015 7:26 PM BST
Laugh
Report everton-fc June 9, 2015 8:11 PM BST
Laugh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 9, 2015 8:30 PM BST
Plain
Report patrick starr June 9, 2015 8:36 PM BST
Laugh
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 8:40 PM BST
Isn't she that Japanese car chief? Nika Mowta! Laugh
Report patrick starr June 9, 2015 8:41 PM BST
Laugh
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 8:42 PM BST
Thief not chief! Laugh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 9, 2015 8:54 PM BST
Is oddschecker not displaying anything under ante post greyhounds for anyone else?
Report lanza June 9, 2015 8:58 PM BST
fine for me
Report lanza June 9, 2015 8:59 PM BST
only messing, nout for me either.
Report woodmanchester June 9, 2015 9:07 PM BST
Fine for me headed by Munster Derby then Barrys Tea
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 9, 2015 9:08 PM BST
It's back now, wish they'd update though seen as more firms have the heats priced up
Report patrick starr June 9, 2015 10:50 PM BST
woody turns up a little over-dressed for pf's class

Report casemoney June 9, 2015 10:56 PM BST
People on here HAVE DONE A LOT WORSE PAT Laugh Derby night at the Don he would have a Queue Laugh
Report patrick starr June 9, 2015 11:24 PM BST
case Laugh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 9:08 AM BST
Laugh alright fella
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 11:12 AM BST
Is it me, or is this thread going slightly off-topic?! Laugh
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 11:50 AM BST
Dont know how anyone can fancy Roxholme Kid? Pretty sure wont bolt out again and it's obvious Glenpadden Lord going to move off from T1 run-up into the middle of the track, hampered Kid in T2. Lay!

7/4 Quattro long gone. Want him through but looking at 5/1 PF's highly-rated Bish now! Laugh. Little bet 14/1 Badmoon, each-way, also
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 11:59 AM BST
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knew I should have saved him
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 12:00 PM BST
Want him through but looking at 5/1 PF's highly-rated Bish now!


Yes a moderate / decent sprinter who just about gets 4 bends when on the bunny, I rate him really highly
Report hectoratoratora June 10, 2015 1:53 PM BST
Can anyone price this up to 100%.Is Woody
(a)a harmless buffoon
(b)a world class fisherman
Report lanza June 10, 2015 1:59 PM BST
...../......
...../......
Report lanza June 10, 2015 1:59 PM BST
Laugh
Report lanza June 10, 2015 2:00 PM BST
ooppps

pats knocked the poor wheelchair user over for the top. Laugh
Report lanza June 10, 2015 2:03 PM BST
pf's just taken the 1/5 the top, the money is just pouring in.

wonders just took the 1/4 the top

irish took the 1/10 the top...


woody... the forum has spoken...i think you are a buffoon. LaughDevilCoolWink
Report lanza June 10, 2015 2:04 PM BST
lucky i had hills limit's in place.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 2:05 PM BST
Angry their limit!!
Report lanza June 10, 2015 2:09 PM BST
yeah, took even £5 off pat and cut it. He always gets the value that bloke.

10 at 1/2 pf    *not 1/5  quick but not quick enough

wonders brought out the wheelbarrow at 1/4,  but hills limit was £1/£4

Irish, happy to bet 1/10's if they would turn up, had a tenner on.

On reflection, Thinking i might palp Pat now aswell.
Report hectoratoratora June 10, 2015 2:26 PM BST
Tops off.Too bad Woody didnt get on as he loves a short fav.Probably busy servicing the hareem.
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 2:43 PM BST
What odds the battery conks in my spinning bow-tie?

PF, i was being sarcastic about Bish. Know your not keen but a 28.17 dog over c/d at his best Wink
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 2:56 PM BST
Oh, waiting for best price Geelo Vegas, each-way too, currently 8/1. Doubt I'll get 14/1 like last time Happy
Report darkie returns June 10, 2015 3:01 PM BST
Think Jolly Tricks in the 3rd heat looks overpriced
Report darkie returns June 10, 2015 3:01 PM BST
Think Jolly Tricks in the 3rd heat looks overpriced
Report darkie returns June 10, 2015 3:01 PM BST
Think Jolly Tricks in the 3rd heat looks overpriced
Report darkie returns June 10, 2015 3:02 PM BST
don't fancy it that much though!!!!!
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 3:15 PM BST
I had a sticking keyboard like that once. All the smart alecs on here said it was spud-juice! Laugh
Report lanza June 10, 2015 3:15 PM BST
Laugh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 3:16 PM BST
you can have 10s Geelo Vegas with me
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 3:22 PM BST
Thanks, what price place only please? Happy
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 3:24 PM BST
evens
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 3:34 PM BST
Nah, 5/2 you might have a deal thanks
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 3:37 PM BST
5/2 Geelo Vegas in the I am a big fanny market Silly
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 3:40 PM BST
2.50euro each-way your mickey mouse money at 12/1?
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 3:44 PM BST
Reckon would get your 10/1 or bigger matched on the exchanges. Dont give much away, do you?! Laugh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 3:49 PM BST
I offer you 10s which is bigger than anywhere on offer so you then ask for 5/2 in the place market which I offer so you now ask for 12/1 e/w, if I had a pitch here I would say, fack off away and stop wasting my time Grin
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 3:55 PM BST
Didnt think you serious and laying  when you said big f*nny market! Laugh. I said i was waiting for best price Geelo and if that be exchanges, so be it. 2.50euro at 12/1 is still on the table, though Happy
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 3:57 PM BST
Oh, i only said 5/2 place might have a deal Wink
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 4:07 PM BST
Just for all you seething Blake backers the champ reappears this Saturday at SPK Grin
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 4:09 PM BST
No harm done if Blitz wins! Happy
Report worldcitizen June 10, 2015 4:17 PM BST

Jun 9, 2015 -- 12:02PM, woodmanchester wrote:


Think it means I'm a man who's only interested in one woman?


When you are dead, you may feel nothing but many of those around you get upset.

Its the same when you are stupid.

Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 4:19 PM BST
Tears of a clown, i suppose
Report worldcitizen June 10, 2015 4:20 PM BST
If you are a "one woman man" why are you approaching so many men on here asking them to meet you for a drink ?
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 4:21 PM BST
1 woman, multiple men Grin
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 4:24 PM BST
tbh World, dont know why i bother. Met Fatty and that and good to watch and talk dogs at tracks. Not restricted to men, if Panda or any other ladies want a drink, i'll be there (all being well)
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 4:25 PM BST
worldcitizen is just jealous we don't invite her to our sausage fest Woody Grin
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 4:30 PM BST
Thought you preferred kebabs! Laugh. Had some great nights when speaking with women trainers like Kelly Macari, Diane Henry, Julie Bateson and June McCombe. I'm happily with a nice lady, though
Report dr . atkins June 10, 2015 4:31 PM BST
you can keep your sausage fest pf what you irish get up to is down to you.  back to the derby rio quattro best drawn dog in the 3rd round have played MAX
Report dr . atkins June 10, 2015 4:33 PM BST
back to the graded on rptv tonight
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 4:55 PM BST
Heard B*yles went up 3/1 Quattro, was it a palp. Believe 7/4 now but cant find it on their site?
Report worldcitizen June 10, 2015 5:00 PM BST
More of a chipolata orgy I suspect Mr Fantasy.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 10, 2015 5:04 PM BST
touche worldcitizen Grin

Rio Quattro has a great draw as long as he out traps Go Ahead (which he should) as he goes straight middle
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 5:24 PM BST
11/8 with B*yles as well now. 7/4 hardly existed. Atkins must have beaten me to it, but still got a small bet Bish Happy
Report woodmanchester June 10, 2015 5:25 PM BST
No need to worry too much about chipolatas when youve got a strap-on tool! Laugh
Report Kronie June 11, 2015 9:39 AM BST
I'm all over Viking Jack at 9/4 with hills, needs to lead of course but looks certain too.
Make Wardy a danger running on but can see him finiding trouble again at the bend.
Report patrick starr June 11, 2015 12:49 PM BST
anyone know if this round is on sky or rpgtv or both pls?
Report hillcrest June 11, 2015 12:50 PM BST
RPGTV
Report patrick starr June 11, 2015 12:59 PM BST
thanks hillcrest Happy
Report woodmanchester June 11, 2015 2:38 PM BST
Not sure but heard Sky red button, too
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 11, 2015 5:06 PM BST
3rd  bet of the 3rd round


Roxholme Ted @ 2/1 - he just has to lead out wide this time surely, 4 and 6 both no good to the corner he leads them easy. On the inside Glenpadden Lord moves off the fence which causes problems for both Roxholme Kid and Millwards Davy, Ted traps he should lead all and he has ran 2 real good races in defeat in the opening rounds.

I priced it

Glenpadden Lord 5/1
Roxholme Kid 7/2
Millwards Davy (m) 16/1
Here We Go (m) 25/1
Roxholme Ted (w) 6/4
Romany Rough (w) 3/1
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 11, 2015 5:15 PM BST
that was 13/2 Romany Rouge Blush just cannot see him winning the race, will qualify no doubt
Report lanza June 11, 2015 5:17 PM BST
been trying to dump my rouge green.
Report casemoney June 11, 2015 5:27 PM BST
that was 13/2 Romany Rouge  Shocked
Report woodmanchester June 11, 2015 5:48 PM BST
2.50euro each-way Rouge at 13/2 and same stake each-way Vegas at 12/1, please! Happy
Report casemoney June 11, 2015 5:58 PM BST
What race is that one in PF ? Laugh
Report lanza June 11, 2015 6:05 PM BST
Laugh
Report woodmanchester June 11, 2015 6:06 PM BST
Would rather stick pins in my eyes! Laugh
Report woodmanchester June 12, 2015 9:33 AM BST
As said, got the top 3 in heat 7 of death but fear most for Eden The Kid. Reckon Gooch will give enough room to Blitz to show his excellent early pace up and think Yolo can come through for a top 3 finish. Eden, however, is going to have Ballymac Loch leaning left into him and compared to some speedy types still left in the Derby, Eden hasn't got tremendous early sizzle to escape, imo. Hoping bumping not too bad and he stays on to go through, though. Last time i had 3 in the same heat only Yolo qualified with Brogan and Trigger going out (but only two went through). Would very much appreciate clean a race as possible then no worries, thank you very much!
Report woodmanchester June 12, 2015 11:56 AM BST
Stand at ease. No, they havent swopped the races about. Obviouly, meant heat 5. Was doing it from memory Happy
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y June 12, 2015 1:23 PM BST
Grin sure I put up all the wrong prices anyway Laugh it was

5
4
12
40
6/4
13/2
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