Woodys BAGS thread

5/4 winner. Opened 6/4, probably a fair bit bigger on here, Betfair.

5/2 3rd.

Just seeing if i can still pick winners on BAGS

If you could make punting BAGS pay why did you stop? Surely you made a living from being a journalist not from BAGS?

Correct, BAGS journalist. Said before why i stopped. Only time i'd have a bet when they were doing unplaced dogs through the card, not very often, although i won prizes for picking most winners, even well above the Sporting Life.

I know there's an Irish bookie that bets on unplaced dogs. I phoned to open an account but he said he didnt accept debit cards and i'd have to send him a 100 cheque to open an account!

So you could make BAGS racing pay but constantly rubbish it and say it's a lottery and pot luck? Is your name Tim?

It doesn't really add up.

Cashmans are the bookie who do that, from Cork.

No, cant make BAGS racing pay. It was pre-betting exchanges days. Still think BAGS betting is mainly pot luck with the odd little gem here and there. I've never been a heavy gambler, never had time to bet when working, 10am until midnight shifts. Just been keeping records of betting balances over the past 6 years or so

never had time to bet when working

people who choose writing about it, commentating or presenting it on tv, have big egos and obviously cant pick winners because if they could they wouldnt be any of the above would they ?   

I wouldn't necessarily agree with that. There could be good judges doing those jobs who would rather have the safety net of a steady and guaranteed income.

Many would choose to write about it but are unable . The big egos you mention presenting on tv like Newbon are clueless, they get by on personality. I can just see you on telly Irish. You'd say, sh*t first to show with *rsehole bringing up the rear!

if they needed a safety net they lack confidence in their own ability

Woody no offence but you are a right t1t

endlessly trying to pick winners, cant even do that regardless of price let alone show a profit! that's bottom rung stuff i am afraid

Oh well, i can see i'm not going to get many Christmas cards this year

The books at crayford must of being doing their dough to put the poet in at 5s.

Did i not read on here before that Dave Johnson (i think that's his name) has a brilliant strike rate on those BAGS SIS 500 comps and was a ridicolous amount in front on them.

So by your theory he obviously can't pick winners or he wouldn't be writing about dogs?


As i said there can be good judges writing about certain sports.

Good man Dave "the Dog" Johnston. Hard working and has a keen eye for spotting things

if you work yer nuts off at the bags there is money to be made
but i bet you put less than two hours work into any of those meetings that you put up reviews for on here woody
how long did it take you to come up with those two tips today .... five minute scan through the cards at most i bet !
it doesn't matter if its bags or open racing you have to put the hours in
and for me woody most journalist tipsters are fly by night characters living by the seat of their pants
and i reckon you fitted right into that category

Blimey, i only put up a couple of BAGS fancies!

dave does put the hours in so does hugh on atr and there's a fellah on the western evening news or something like that, and prob paul lawrence, sully at wimbledon without the judges on here.

pf would you rather go into work and get told what to do or go down the bookies and cop your wages when you felt like it ?

Irish, how much time do you really think Dave Johnston's got to scrutinise each race? Take two 12 race morning meetings, two 12 race afternoon meetings and two 12 race evening, all BAGS meetings. Thats 72 races multiplied by 6 dogs in each race, that equals 432 dogs. You have to work out tips and betting, then write different things about them all. That's what i used to do anyway

agree with most of what you say in theory Irish, but its not like going down the bookies and copping when you feel like it lol

i must do a 60-70 hour week in my head and need the bank of knowledge constantly updated it ain't poker... although sometimes wish it was

Woody that's what you still do isn't it?

Hardly ever bother with BAGS now. I'm a form student on the opens nowadays, less work and more exciting

afternoons are 14 races, evenings vary btw

If you look at any jounalist Naps table 80% of those in it are in a LOSS situation. Very few make a profit at the end of the season.

You on the other hand,you have "won prizes for picking most winners, even well above the Sporting Life".... Woody I find that difficult to believe

True as night follows day. In those days it was all about strike-rate though. We would work out the tissue for each race and tip 1, 2, 3 in betting order. Think most still do, old habits die hard. Look at Fernhill Jess, 21 wins? Nobody says how many times she was short prices, do they?

In those days it was all about strike-rate though

jeez, anybody who is betting and thinks like that should not be allowed carry money

what's better to level stakes:

back 10 winners all at even money = 100% strikerate
back 9 losers and 1 winner at 20/1 = 10% strikerate

total bowlox though isn't it woody ?
on rpgtv they say "plenty of winners tonight" most of which were odds on or very short, like your sels on here
in actual fact you could not make a living on their tips and neither do they its all show, all fur coat and no nickers mate
great strike rate though but no fecking profit ?

I know PF. That's why i've already been called a dinosaur on here. People dont believe me but discounting this year, ive made a profit on the 5 or so preceeding years on opens. No great shakes, but profit nevertheless.

Also, you dont go tipping 20/1 dogs when youre writing for the National Press, one quick way out of a job

Why is that?

lol cant wait to here this...

Firstly, you work out the betting guide. If you make something 3/1fav tip it and it starts at 20/1, dont look good

Ok, sometimes big prices are tipped, but that's just the jokers on Sky when they are chasing shadows in the tipping competition, desperate going for big outsiders, in other words

do you think your tips sold more newspapers woody ?

Is that a leading question? Been nice chatting but gotta go now, now i've sold ice to all you Eskimos. Byeee!

he's learning

Morning everyone. Wakey-wakey, rise and shine, half the day has gone! .

Been burning the midnight oil and here are my two for this morning, both at Hall Green.

12.18 Ballymac Vidic (T2)
12.42 Denwill Rocket (T3)

Good luck!

Oops, Denwill Rocket was 12.42 at Newcastle but sure you gathered that, unlucky 2nd 2/1

Ballymac Vidic 2nd also 5/2.

Nothing for hard lines in this game!

are you having a laugh or what?

you've fecked off all the open race boys, now you're doing it at bags

there is one bags thread per day, "wednesday bags" for example, it aint your thread and you don't need to create a new one, its a community thread for everyone to share their opinions

some of us have been here a lot longer than you so don't embarrass yourself trying to reinvent the wheel

Okay Wonder. I get nothing but flak off people like you. I dont dictate what you do or critisize anyone, so kindly return the compliment. Thank you. If you dont want a Woodys BAGS thread, get a petition together. I will go with majority verdict, not just with you coz i rattle your cage. Cant say fairer than that

I get nothing but flak off people like you

you get more flak than a fecking Messerschmitt you cant

Far too much negative energy from you Irish and Wonder. The pair of you should join kill-joys anonymous!

Not studied today. Got the cold, not well at all

lets hope its nothing trivial eh woody ? 

Normal service should be resumed Monday.

Bigger fish to fry in Dublin this weekend.

Thanks for bearing with me.

Amazing night in Dublin, but back to the breadn butter stuff here.

Fancy a fair few this morning, mainly at Sheffield:

11.28 Stepaside Merc (T3)
11.42 Giro (T2)
11.57 Fast Defector (T2)

Whilst at Hall Green:

12.04 Kielduff Shaw (T6)

The very best of luck!

,,, dice were out then

I might be a bit loud like you Irish but unlike you, the noises i make arent all wrong.

Why dont you try laying them big then!

One winner
Two seconds
One third

Unlucky but still very little harm done

what exactly are you trying to do here? you are relentless lol

a sucker for punishment you are woody, but phisherman extraordinaire

TBF a winner is a winner , at 7/4 as well.... you will be able to pay for another losing night at shelbourne soon Woody !

Keep it up Woody, fantastic tippping

Sorry no selections today, too busy

Morning, well, it probably will be by the time you read this.

Stayed up late, wadings through lots of races and nothing much to write home about at Hall Green, imo.

Forcussed on Newcastle next, but too many guaranteed short ones in the BAGS Championship, so left it alone.

Therefore, fell back on "old faithful" Belle Vue and came up with:

4.37 Jorjen Jak (T5)

Good luck!

wd on your winner

just out of interest, why is this not on the "wednesday bags" thread?

Woody has special needs Wonders 

Give the man a break, you'd moan if he clogged up some other threads so leave him to put his selections up on this thread if he wishes, nobody need look in.

irish very much so

PF, he IS clogging up other threads, the entire fecking forum in fact

S

Feel like throwing this laptop through the living room window, it's a bag of sh*te.

Some decent runners in Romford's BAGS inter-tracks to go for:

3.07 Courts Ad Nina (T5)
3.28 Millwards Sheena (T3)
4.27 Ramodi (T3)

Good luck!

The point of this thread is to see if i can make BAGS betting pay

The reason it's not on the regular thread, because i dont think it belongs there. It would get lost amidst all the backing just to lay at slightly less odds that goes on etc (arbers thread). Not designed for that, although some may use it for those purposes if they see fit

Thank you

I've been accused of not having a Scoobie etc and that BAGS is the real game where you gotta know your onions and work hard for big dividends. Of course, that could well be true if people didnt back with a view just to lay at slightly lesser odds merely for a kwik penny!

Woody do yourself a favour and stop branding all those who bets on bags as arbers and they may get off your case too.

[i]"Feel like throwing this laptop through the living room window"[/i


well you would be doing us all a favour there now Woody !

Yeah, i know. Just bugs me when they think they know it all and get accounts closed, for what? Just that backing and laying all the time would my head in.

Our friend Addy recently said he sometimes waits until a minute before the off and if he can back three and lay three at evens what he thinks a 4nd /7 shot, he will do it. Nothing wrong though, good luck to him though

and

Irish did a one-man show once with a £50 pot. He seemed pleased with something like a 15% profit, but as i pointed out, it was like his backing a 1/5 winner of something.

People dont get the point with me sometimes and i certainly dont get the point with them?

Its all about Return.On.Investment Woody ..... others call it "Value" ! 

PS ...just a little tiny bit of advice , you certainly will not make Bags betting pay in general, by tipping up favourites all the time

Addy is not arbing, he is saying if he makes 3 dogs coupled 4/7 and he can bet them at evens he will do so.

In other words he thinks between the 3 of them they will win the race 63.64% of the time but the market is only saying they will win between then 50% of the time hence the evens being value and a bet.

On the other side if he can lay 3 runners are evens that he makes a 7/4 shot he will do so.

In other words he thinks between them they will win the race 36.36% of the time but the market says they will win 50% of the time hence the price being too short.

I'll call your bluff and we will see then Irish. Yes, you cant win backing all the favs but if you choose the right ones, you can as my friend Track Record will tell you

you have absolutely no idea about bags or what most people on here are doing

PF is right, its laughable that you wonder why people have always got an issue with you all I have done is trying help you, remember when you were bleating out a load of times at notts, I told you back in the autumn about their going, do you think I have just plucked this out of the sky? its called putting the hours in to get an edge over people who haven't put the work in I'll just let you make the same glaring ricks in future

Thanks for trying to explain it PF. Sure you all know what your doing, but i'd rather just have a straight bet

it is a straight bet ffs!! he "makes" 3 dogs 4/7 on his tissue, he can bet them at evens on here, so he backs all 3, he's not laying or arbing

Youre right Wonder, i have no idea what youre all doing but you can give and take money off each other all you like. On the nose the way to bet, imo

You have tipped 7 favs up on this "BAGS" thread alone, 4 have lost, i think you will find T R's strike rate is a lot better than that , and he doesn't always tip the favourite !

AS for arbing , you total d1ckhead this was one of your first posts ....


woodmanchester  29 Aug 11 06:46
The point is the bookmakers got it wrong and there is money to be made backing at 6/1 and laying at sp 7/2. Same applies to my comment about Taylors Sky and Longwood Fantasy, who was available at 12/1 but returned 6/1!

Wonder, it means he's got interest on 6 dogs, thats making life difficult for yourself in my book, instead of picking just one. It's only 1 dog that wins the bet

Here the some odds for a fair dice:

1. 3-1
2. 11-2
3. 11-2
4. 11-2
5. 11-2
6. 11-2

only 1 number can come up - how many bets are you having?

No idea Wonder, too complicated for me. Lay 3 dogs, back 3 dogs is 6 bets to me

Bloody hell Irish, you must have an in-depth profile on me, are you "plod"?

Woody i'll explain, they all have the same chance of happening. So you have 6 possibilities and they all have equal chance. 100 % 6 = 16.666666666666666 - let's say 16.67 for ease, they should all be 5/1.

3/1 - says it has a 25% chance of happening (great lay then)
11/2 - says it has a 15.38% chance of happening (so you're getting better odds than it's chance)

However Wonders dice may be loaded so i'm not playing

the 3-1 is a bit of value PF

"Bloody hell Irish, you must have an in-depth profile on me, are you "plod"? "

Yeah woody, helps me to suss out the people on here who are serious and not total nutters like yerself. I am sure you are on a wind up, somebody who worked in the game (allegedly) as long as you ?  must know all about betting percentages... either that or you are totally thick and special needs. I'd bet on the latter currently but every time you contradict yerself like today the odds on you fisching come tumbling down .

1st 6/4
4th 9/4
2nd evens

Unlucky yet again but this is very typical of the small fractions involved, when assessing BAGS races

WAFLOB Woody .......

Didn’t you do well today Woody ? one winning favourite, out of 3 chosen favourites. You really do need to use the proper bags thread, nobody will bite you and you might learn something. Three winners for me this morning 8/1 , 9/2 and 5/2 , not one fav amongst them




panda•December 6, 2012 11:47 AM GMT  11.48 bet 2n5 also laid 3…… 2         WON 8/1
irishone•December 6, 2012 11:48 AM GMT  on 2                       ………………  WON  8/1
yorky•December 6, 2012 12:57 PM GMT
9/2 trap 1 jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez christmas come early
Irishone December 6, 2012 12:57 PM GMT with yorky  TRAP 1           …………………WON 9/2
irishone•December 6, 2012 1:12 PM GMT  on 2sheff                       ….. 3rd 7/2
irishone•December 6, 2012 1:21 PM GMT like 5 save 1n2 …..                  ALL   LOST
irishone•December 6, 2012 1:35 PM GMT… on1n2  ….                           2 WON 5/2

Glad youre all enjoying yourselves and seemingly doing well.

Do you think Farloe Tango will win tonight Irish?

TBH I'm too old and keep getting warhawk mixed with tango and ironman
...... how can you expect people to take you seriously when you come out with statements like "Farloe Tango has as much pace as any dog in training".
Its hardly a provable hypothesis is it ?

What does provable hypothesis mean please?

it means you are making a statement that has very little substance, what facts would you put up to support your view that the dog has as much pace as any dog in training ?

i think jumeirah has probrably got better pace up

would it beat lil risky to the bend or that other thing that came over last week ?

Irish my friend, youre comparing sprinters there. Think nearly everyone else on the forum knew what i meant.

I was only saying why i thought it a race to watch only.

Youre good at your stats and calculations and i know the dogs themselves. Let's leave it like that and call a truce instead of nit-picking all the time. It's all getting very tedious now

sorry thought tango was a sprinter

Winding this thread dowsn now to join the hoards on the regular thread.

Round-up at time of close: 12 selections, 4 winners, 5 seconds.

To a £1 level stake, total stakes £12, winnings £10.50, leaving
a balance of -£1.50, not bad for 5 days entertainment

Woody  you came on here with this statement , (see above), "How hard can BAGS be when you did it decades for a living"

In the last 9 days you have selected 12 greyhounds, 10 of which started as favourite or joint favourite. Four of them won at prices of 5/4. 7/4,2/1 and 6/4.

I seriously doubt that you ever made a living out of BAGS , you may have made a living out of writing about BAGS but you clearly  dont know anything about profiting from Bags and it shows you how hard it is when basically you have shown you have not got a clue. Worse still you showed a lot of disrespect opening up your own bags thread not to mention "-£1.50, not bad for 5 days entertainment".

Hope you have enjoyed your entetainment, as you call it , to me you have just shown yourself up to be a bigger d!ck than you were 9 days ago !

Its impossible to pick a guaranteed fav when you put dogs up as early as me. I dont wait until 1 minute before the off. I weigh up the form and the make-up and pick a dog i think got a chance, so usually towards the sharp end of the market. I'm wasting my breath with you Irish, you dont listen and are totally unreasonable and nasty.

So, anyway, its with a heavy heart i need to block you

i'm gutted

Dec 7, 2012 -- 8:31AM, woodmanchester wrote:

Winding this thread dowsn now to join the hoards on the regular thread.Round-up at time of close: 12 selections, 4 winners, 5 seconds.To a £1 level stake, total stakes £12, winnings £10.50, leavinga balance of -£1.50, not bad for 5 days entertainment

thanks for listening to other people, this thread was pointless

how the fcuk did i miss this thread

woody takes it well though to be fair

.... he deserves it to be fair