**** NFL 2012/13 Dog punters thread ****

Have snaffled up the 4/5 Chicago -6.5 on here for Sundays game vs St. Louis A 17 point win forecasts "The system"
Hopefully they will take out their frustrations from last weeks Green Bay defeat on the Rams.

washington for me tonight,

- 2-1/2 (5/7) bt 536
- 1-1/2 (4/6) will ills
take your pick,

but dont think it will be as close as that

nice little earner for you there dave.

skins in another shootout,
dont know what to make of Robert Griffin III,
what he brings to the offence the defence gives back
and a bit more.

but a bit of sunshine out of miami makes up for it

My idea is to generally stick to the better teams from last season that I had success with when the match ups are right.
Atlanta (who you put me onto last year),Houston, Cincinnati and Chicago are the first teams I look at.
I'd be a little wary of Chicago, as Cutler was pretty poor last night. The rest of the team carried him.
I go down my list of forecast handicaps, read a few reviews, look at my team notes &  then smash it on!

Very luckily, I even avoided tailing you in on Carolina in week one. The deposit went through on the website, but the bet was not placed! How lucky was that? I watched the whole game thinking I'd done it in, then checked the website and found the deposit still on the website unplaced. I decided to chuck the money at Denver instead that night & they copped!

So I have had 5 bets & 5 winners. I'm running on last seasons stats till week or 6. They are standing up well. The new improved "system" equation has nine factors. If they all line up, the forecast handicaps can be too high, but they are flying so far.

The system says Green Bay by 11 tonight, but I have not studied the game & don't plan to bet.

just put the shocks down to early season form amounting to very little,
ever season the same,
all teams fit and healthy,just like our football,
(promoted teams can start like a house on fire),

notice some of the high scoring games,
(crap scoring 30 points)

the season does not realy get going till the 5th  round onwards so its watch and learn,
keep bets to minimum stakes,
best way to learn is have money on it,you take more notice,
like you say bet the best teams,
but the crap teams will also keep losing,
its the middle of the road teams that cost you,

ps
forget carolina as dark horses,
something not right in the house.

I don't think there's much excuse for them not to be ready. They have three pre season games, even though they don't play the big names for 3 full games. I watched some pre season games with the game pass & found that gave me a bit of a head start. I have been playing pretty full stakes from the start. I did the same last season and it worked out ok.
While I appreciated the massive difference between handicaps for example of - 7 and - 6.5, I reckon it's best not to make a habit of betting below 5/6. If you consider the strike rate required at the 4/6 type odds, it is much harder to make it pay imo.

This Wednesday NFL midweek special is worth recording. A 1 hour programme with highlights of 2 games. (not re-runs of the Sunday games) Two absolutely dreadful commentators though.

The NFL reached an eight-year agreement with the NFL Referees Association on Wednesday night to end the lockout, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said the refs will be back on the field starting Thursday night.
Goodell temporarily lifted the lockout so officials can work Thursday night's game between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens

ravens will win comfortably,
but - 11.1/2 might be a touch to much,so no bet tonight

Chaps, we need your selections. Some of us are clueless lol

Don't like the matchups on the early games. have thrown a few quid at Atlanta -7

Some firm bet in running. The way Michael Turner is running, Carolina will need to score a lot of points to hold Atlanta.
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-atlanta-falcons/point-spread

time for the real green bay to turn up.

- 6.1/2 bet 536 --- or
- 6 w ills

chicago -4 1/2  on here will be my bet tonight

where have all you nfl fans gone,
does nobody play anymore?

arizona - 4 1/2( on here)will do for me tonight

I've been to Spain & came back late last night. I backed Jacksonville & San Diego in week 5 (1 won 1 lost) and left it alone last night, as I was travelling home. I normally run my database using last season's stats till week 5 or 6 and then switch over.

I ran the database for week 6 using last season's stats and then ran it again using this season's stats.

Using last season's stats, the picks were San Diego Chargers(play tonight), New York Jets(won), Miami Dolphins (lost on hcap, won game) and New England Patriots.(lost)

Using this seasons stats, the picks were Baltimore Ravens(lost on hcap, won game), Minnesota Vikings(lost), Houston Texans(lost), Tampa Bay Buccaneers(won) and Arizona Cardinals(lost). I do need to have a thorough check as the forecast handicaps were very high. There's data from around 10 spreadsheets, so it's easy to miss something, particularly as I was doing it remotely from Spain. As it's pretty complex, I need to re-discover how it works out each year.

It's tricky to decide when to switch over with the stats. My instincts tell me that there needs to be 6-7 weeks worth to work with. Also, I believe last season's stats seem to work for around the 1st 5 weeks. So, I planned to avoid betting in week 6 (worked well with my holiday) and probably be cautious in week 7, before getting back to normal stakes in week 8.

small bet on the Bills -4 @ 10/11

stay with green bay - 4

starting to get on a roll now

A small bet on Chicago Bears (-3.5) to start (6pm)
The system says Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) are the best bet (1.30 am)
The system also suggests Tampa Bay. Not sure on this one yet. (9,05 pm)

Cutler is absolutely useless. He thinks he has all day in the pocket, he holds the ball at waist height for what seems like an eternity. Thank f for Chicago's superb defence. Looks like the game will be largely painful viewing.

think there is only me and you left dave,
so will not do a bit of after timing on you,

got a feeling about tony romo and the cowboys tonight
but would not bet the cowboys if it was a free bet,

so will have a little bet on the n.y.giants - 2-1/2

All hail the system and it's modest designer!

what you modest dave never

now if you can just have a go on the lottery tomorrow
with your luck you will scoop the lot and be able to by the stow  

I have thrown another score at the lottery, giving us another 20/76275360 (2.62*10^-7) of getting the Stow back with a single outright win or half of it.
(Luck is looking good, I also backed New Orleans last night, won £250 on the Breeders cup and had a £125 double Man U & West Brom @ 8/11 & 3/4)

This weeks system pick is MIAMI(NB) (-6). The "all conquering" system forecasts an 18 pt win

The system also suggests Pittsburgh Steelers(NAP), Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots (in this order), but all are rejected on my golden rule:-
"THOUGH SHALL NOT GIVE UP OVER SEVEN POINTS ON THE HANDICAP ON THE NFL UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES"

ps 849 view count

only one of yours on my short list this week dave,
thats new england and the start will be to big to play but

have a close look at indi  tonight  - 2.1/2

seeing as your a bit down in the dumps after todays match,
i will cheer you up dave,

i will pose you a little conundrum

the one man team is no longer a one man team,
and you can fill your boots

answer.
the one man team is the Pittsburgh Steelers,and big Ben is the one man,

it was going to be a classic against the ravens,
but with the second string quarter back playing against the ravens defense,it will take a miracle for the steelers to win tonight,
and there season might even go into meltdown.
Baltimore - 2.1/2 fill your boots

I've backed the Indianapolis Colts @ 3 figure prices on here and took some 80/1 with the books too. They have a tough game tonight in Foxboro and then 2 divisional games against the Texans but bar them i think they can win the rest of their games. They are 6-3 at the moment and i think they can easily get to 10-7 which will be good enough for a wildcard spot in the AFC, 9-8 could even be enough and if they could win those 2 massive game against the Texans they could top the division but that is a longshot.

Andrew Luck has been so impressive so far in my opinion and the more games he plays the better he will get with the offence. It's a longshot but i fully expect them to make the play offs and then who knows, i think the price is big anyway.

I never rated Big Ben. Troy Polamalu is the key to their team and Rashard Mendenhall, Hines Ward and Mike Wallace make them a long way from a one man team.
No system pick this week, Atlanta Falcons are the pick & are rejected on hcap. I am still doing some head scratching on a game or two.I have tailed you in. Shame that's the late game.

Andrew luck potential super star,
but reminds  me of Michael Vick,

like to have a anti post to,
but have still not seen a team i can honestly bet with confidence
this season,
And still think it is 10/1 the field,and would not rule out the colts,

Dallas look good tonight but like i said before would not bet them with a free bet,

The system picks the Patriots, but I must say the hcap looks all wrong on that gamr and I's be surprised to see the patriots cover it.

If the Bears had a decent QB I'd be on them. Cutler looks poor. I see he's out this week.

Have thrown a little at the Bengals

https://twitter.com/stowjudge/status/270242280542183425/photo/1

Another small bet this time New Orleans Saints -5.5

Jags blow a 14pt 4th quarter lead against the Texans, bunch of ****s. That would have been a good result for the Colts

That game is still going 3 hrs 45 mins so far

Jags intercertion!!! Surely they must win now

they interceted Schaub i mean came out wrong

Houston TD

Jags lose, you can't facking make that up, what a pack of losers

whoever made the call to go for it on 4th and 10 on the Texans 49 should be sacked in the morning, shocking call

Nice one Starr. Just a push for me as I got on at -3. Still a fine weekend's NFL work here though.

but with the second string quarter back playing against the ravens defense,it will take a miracle for the steelers to win tonight,

well they got there miracle in the first 30 seconds,
and still could not win,only scoring 3 points after,

if ben had been playing it would have been a different story,(but then would not have bet the ravens)
dont know if got lucky or not,
Leftwich was hurt while falling into the end zone on his touchdown run in the first minute,
but then proceded to play the entire game injured,
(who's fault was that)his or the side line for not pulling him,
only know it was a long fu----g night watching,

1/2 a point dave worth its weight in gold.
at least you didn't lose,am glad about that

Small bets on Minnesota Vikings +6 and Pittsburgh Steelers 1.9 on the money line

no bet for me tonight,
just can not find one that stands out,

sorry to aftertime you dave but said last week the one man team will go into meltdown,hope they can turn it round for you
so will just root for my 2 anti post bets

Houston Texans - 6.5 20/23 Nanny or Slybet looks the pick of the early games to me

Cincinnati Bengals - 1 will be my bet tonight

the one man team will lose again

and dallas will record a win

Andrew Luck what a comeback. Colts 8-4 now, post season here they come!!

Invested some €€€€€ on the New York Giants @ 13.5 for the Superbowl.

It looks like I may need another factor in my NFL ratings .....

Sleeping Your Way to the Top
To Get an Edge, NFL Teams Meddle With Player Sleep Patterns; the 68-Degree Hotel Room

For decades, the NFL has taken many measures to make sure talent is spread around the league evenly and that every team can have a fighting shot. It's natural, then, for teams to try almost anything, no matter how wild, to gain the slightest advantage.

This season, however, at least three teams have decided to tackle one of the simplest competitive issues imaginable: making sure their players get enough sleep before games.

The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers spent the summer tearing through sleep studies—some of them commissioned by the U.S. military—looking for ways they might help their players improve their performance by sleeping more like teenagers. "We've looked at quite a few of them," said San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh.

Prior to a 1 p.m. game against the Jets in New Jersey this season, San Francisco moved its entire team to a hotel outside of Youngstown, Ohio—not because they had any particular reason to be in Ohio, but to give the team a chance to get acclimated to Eastern time.

And after sleep specialists visited the Jets earlier this year, linebacker Bryan Thomas said the team has made an extreme effort to make sure everyone is sleeping properly. This includes pre-setting all temperatures in the team hotel rooms to the sleep-therapy recommended 68 degrees and recommending players sleep in pitch-black rooms.

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh, Jim's brother, has begun to take measures to combat jetlag on long trips: Before the Ravens fly west to play San Diego on Nov. 25, their plan is to stay at home but simply start practices and meetings later until they are operating on West Coast-time while in Baltimore.

Football teams that want their players to sleep like teenagers before games aren't an exotic species—bed checks may be as old as the sport itself. Ultimately, though, each player has been left alone to devise their own sleep strategy—and the result is a hodgepodge of theories.

Jets backup quarterback Greg McElroy said he heard about a study in which people under 25 years old operate best on nine hours and 15 minutes of sleep. He noted that that's basically impossible with an NFL schedule. "I don't know if I'll ever have the time to sleep 9:15," McElroy said.

The recent push to maximize sleep patterns is also part of an ongoing effort to combat a famous inequality on Sundays that even the almighty NFL cannot do anything about: time zones.

Because there are only a few time slots NFL teams can play in, a team from California can get stuck with starting times on the East Coast that are the equivalent of 10 a.m. in their hometowns. It's become a fairly desperate problem for West Coast teams. Of the four Pacific-time teams, three of them lost more than 75% of the time over the past decade when playing 1 p.m. games on the East Coast.

The 49ers are 2-15 in such games during that span, and only after Jim Harbaugh took action last season, when he first tried moving the entire team early before a game so they could adjust to Eastern Standard Time. The 49ers have been known to deal with leaving their practice facility early by staging elaborate scheme meetings in the parking lot behind a Holiday Inn.

"It's not necessarily traveling from East to West or West to East that is a deterrent in winning, it's really playing a 10 a.m. body clock game," said 49ers CEO Jed York, who said the Ohio move gives the team a better chance to win than flying out on Friday night when "you're still really on Pacific time."

49ers linebacker Ahmad Brooks says the team's sleep strategy is one of the keys to its early success this year. After the detour to Ohio, the 49ers moved on to New York where they thrashed the Jets 34-0. Brooks, who grew up in Virginia, said he frequently flies between the coasts and on the first night back on a new coast, can't sleep at all. Then, he said, he can't get to sleep until 5 a.m. the following night. He said sleep deficiencies have mental and physical effects: forgetting where to be on a specific play or, if you are there, struggling to keep up—at least early in the game.

"To wake up this early and play a game?" 49ers offensive lineman Alex Boone said of 1 p.m. starts, "you've gotta have your body clock ready or else you're going to be as tired as hell. It's hugely important."

Football is unique among major team sports in that there's very little travel involved. Professional basketball teams fly out after games, making for late arrivals but plenty of time for sleep before the next game. Baseball teams spend countless nights on the road, but are in the same city for three or four days, where their sleep schedules can be maintained and monitored by the team.

Of course, NFL players don't have to rely on their coaches for sleep advice. They can always just throw science out the window and rely on a simpler philosophy: It's probably better to go to bed before everyone else does. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady recently admitted he was in bed at 7:15 p.m. on a Monday night. "Trying to get bright-eyed and bushy-tailed," he said.

its got to be the n.y.giants for me tonight     - 31/2


the (one man) team welcomes there man back tonight,
if he can take a hit(wearing special padding for extra protection tonight)
you will see the real steelers

I have punted Tampa Bay -7 and Atlanta -3

I like both of your selections and the Bengals too

Backed the Colts, will stick the lot on the Giants when they win

Buccaneers 22 yards rushing, Eagles -4

the Colts playing like clowns if they get beat here by the Titans they will probably have to win one of the 2 games against the Texans and beat the Chiefs to get one of the wildcard spots

Athletico Madrid are 6-0 up and Falcao has 5 goals

I noticed earlier they were 2/9 with the fixed odds firms but the ht/ft was ca 1.74

some goalscorer that Falcao lad


Super Colts!!! 9-4 now, they'll make the playoffs now

Good night on the NFL front for me (unusual) and for my Superbowl bets

another night of upset wins,
makes tonights game between new england / houston must watch material
as we could be watching the superbowl winners elect,

but at this moment in time for me it is still 10/1 the field

got to be with miami tonight,- 51/2 ills or 563

Tampa +4 for me

Colts = 10.5 @ 4/5 + Giants @ evs - double

*Colts + 10.5 @ 4/5 + Giants @ evs - double*

A bit on Detroit

bloody hell the Giants where absolute gash

Tampa lost by more

the Giants will struggle to make the playoffs now, Redskins top the division and the Giants have a tough run in and the Eagles would love to fack them up in the last regular season game

Been a good day overall
165 spurs 8/11 won
65 west brom lost
99 tampa lost
bought 2 quid rodgers over cutler giving up 30yds  £££
bought total goals barca game 3.48 on here

messi makes it 3-1

ps goals in barca game for 40

Could do with the Steelers beating the Cowgirls now, would rather neither win to be honest but the Colts should be fine for a wildcard spot so rather them win than Dallas

I had my works xmas party on Thursday and stayed in a hotel overnight. So I did not run my database until Saturday morning. Guess who was top pick? Cincinnati Bengals by 12.5 pts more than the hcap. DOH No dough on

must be a sure bet taking on the Eagles these days anyway, we're hopeless

Another good shout by starr

coming down to the wire now,
would love to put up dallas,but the proverbial loser
tony romo(one of the most over rated quarter backs in history
will proberly f-c- it up again,so no bet there then,

have decided to back atlanta for the bowl outright,

and tonights bet for me will be chicago -51/2 (on here)

I am rooting for the Bengals & have had a couple of smallish stakes spread bets

I won a bit there. Lost around 50 on B.Green Ellis/J.Dwyer but won ca 119 on AJ.Green/M.Wallace.

Was tempted to do Baltimore passing yard over NYG off levels, but swerved it. I think home field advantage might swing it.;

H.Nicks/A.Boldin Rec Yards sold @ 5
V.Cruz/T.Smith Rec Yards bought@20
(Torey Smith left last weekend’s game with a concussion. Just play for a short while please )

tony romo trying to make me look a c--t,
but dont worry he will f--k up

and its goodnight from him(tony romo),

and its good night from me,

be lucky dave

it looks like its going to be a late late night for me tonight,
the nfl's preverbial loser,
my hero tony romo to f-c- it up again,
washington - 2.1/2------bet 653.

late on parade, Atlanta -2 @ 5/6 in running

just new tony wouldn't let me down,

getting down to the serious stuff now.

cincinatti @ houston
cin 6/2 away/hou 6/2 home
cin4/1 last 5 games/hou 2/3 last 5 games
close call no bet
---------------------------------------------
minisota @ green bay
min 3/5 away / g/bay 7/1 home
both teams 4/1 from last five

another shoot out just favour green bay,

total points over 45 looks good
---------------------------------------------

I fancy Houston and have had a few spread bets

nearly missed out last night with Christian Ponder missing for the vikings,realy changed the game senario,
green bay never out of 3rd gear.

could be the same tonight,

Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will miss Sunday's wild-card game against the Baltimore Ravens because he has been hospitalized after falling ill,
so will go with baltimore - 6 1/2,

it does make a difference when people are missing of the side lines,
imagin man u with no raging fregie on the side line

I favour Indy

I reckon Seattle are a good bet in the 2nd game and have also done M.Lynch over A.Morris Rush & Rec Yards

4/5 -2.5 with paddy power

seattle on the road are fu--ing ****,
if RG3 was not playing with a doggy knee
washington would be the bet of the round,
so no bet for me on this one,
will be rooting for you dave

seattle/atlanta possible shootout,no bet

new england will destroy houston
new england -9 worth a bet

going to state the obvious here.

San Francisco 49ers/New England Patriots
nice outright win double,

pays evens with ladcrooks,

Looking forward to tonight, hoping for a shootout in the 49ers / Falcons game

Great night of football we get the Harbaugh Bowl this year, came so close to it last year

Usually keep an eye on possible Superbowl teams at semi stage and nearly went for 2/1 49ers. My nephew used to play and he told me Baltimore could reach the final, think they have. He's such a big fan, he's going to the States with his girlfriend just to be in America at a Superbowl party, while the final's taking place. Know nothing but these players are athletes of the very highest calibre