BALTYLUM HOUDINI

http://www.greyhound-data.com/d?l=1682004

beaten a Derby winner, a top class hurdler, and some wins at massive prices

Liege Bastogne Liege 2014 Preview



Coming hot on the heels of last weekend’s Amstel Gold Race, and Wednesday’s Fleche Wallone, we have Liege-Bastongne-Liege this Sunday. Known as the “Old Lady of Classics” or “La Doyenne”, this year’s version is the 100th version of the race. King Philippe of Belgium (the actual King, not Gilbert) will see the riders off, and the route has been designed to take in some of the classic climbs of the race’s history.

La Doyenne Des Classiques

These Ardennes Classics are where the punchers and climbers come to the fore, and several of these will look to join the list of famous names that have won the race, including Gilbert, Vinoukourov (twice), Valverde (twice) and Andy Schleck in recent years. The race has as much climbing as many Alpine Stages of the Tour de France, and with its daunting climbs and terrifying descents, Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a fearsome test.

Almost all the climbs vary in gradient from section to section, making a balance between power and stamina a must, and gear choice crucial. There are two climbs towards the closing kilometres. The penultimate climb is with about 5k to go is 1.2k at 8.6%. The finish at Ans is at the top of a climb, the last 1.5k averages 5.3% but in reality the last half kilometre are just false flat, and the section before that is steeper.

Martin wins LBL last year

Last year Dan Martin won, beating off Purito Rodriguez after following his attack then attacking past him once it flattened out towards the line. Watch the final few kilometres of Dan Martin's 2013 win here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4O5bb2XDdc

Past winners
2013   
MARTIN Daniel
RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
VALVERDE Alejandro

2012
IGLINSKIY Maxim
NIBALI Vincenzo
GASPAROTTO Enrico

2011   
GILBERT Philippe
SCHLECK Fränk
SCHLECK Andy
Gilbert wins in 2011

2010   
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
KOLOBNEV Alexandr
VALVERDE Alejandro
GILBERT Philippe

2009   
SCHLECK Andy
RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
REBELLIN Davide

2008   
VALVERDE Alejandro
REBELLIN Davide
SCHLECK Fränk

2007   
DI LUCA Danilo
VALVERDE Alejandro
SCHLECK Fränk

2006   
VALVERDE Alejandro
BETTINI Paolo
CUNEGO Damiano

2005   
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
VOIGT Jens
BOOGERD Michael

2004   
REBELLIN Davide
BOOGERD Michael
VINOKOUROV Alexandre

2013 Liege Bastogne Liege Placings
1    MARTIN Daniel
Garmin Sharp
6:38:07
2    RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
Team Katusha
0:03
3    VALVERDE Alejandro
Movistar Team
0:09
4    BETANCUR Carlos
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
5    SCARPONI Michele
Lampre-Merida
,,
6    GASPAROTTO Enrico
Astana Pro Team
0:18
7    GILBERT Philippe
BMC Racing Team
,,
8    HESJEDAL Ryder
Garmin Sharp
,,
9    COSTA Rui
Movistar Team
,,
10    GERRANS Simon
Orica GreenEDGE
    ,,
11    VAUGRENARD Benoit
Equipe Cycliste FDJ
    ,,
12    ANTON Igor
Euskaltel - Euskadi
,,
13    BARDET Romain
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
14    NOCENTINI Rinaldo
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
15    NORDHAUG Lars Petter
Blanco Pro Cycling Team
,,
16    HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
Sky Procycling
,,

Liege Bastogne Liege 2014: The Climbs
•    Km 70.0 - Côte de La Roche-en-Ardenne2.8 kilometre-long climb at 6.2%
•    Km 123.0 - Côte de Saint-Roch1 kilometre-long climb at 11.1%
•    Km 167.0 - Côte de Wanne2.8 kilometre-long climb at 7.2%
•    Km 173.5 - Côte de Stockeu1 kilometre-long climb at 12.4%
•    Km 179.0 - Côte de la Haute-Levée3.6 kilometre-long climb at 5.6%
•    Km 201.0 - Côte de la Vecquée3.1 kilometre-long climb at 6.4%
•    Km 218.5 - Côte de La Redoute2 kilometre-long climb at 8.9%
•    Km 231.5 - Côte des Forges1.9 kilometre-long climb at 5.9%
•    Km 243.5 - Côte de La Roche-aux-Faucons1.5 kilometre-long climb at 9.3%
•    Km 257.5 - Côte de Saint-Nicolas1.2 kilometre-long climb at 8.6%

2014 Liege Bastogne Liege Best Prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/liege-bastogne-liege/winner




The Contenders:

Alejandro Valverde 4/1 - Movistar



Valverde looked like he had another gear on Wednesday winning La Fleche Wallone up the wall of Huy. Twice a winner of LBL in 2006 and 2008, 2nd in 2007 and 3rd last year he is extremely hard to discount, especially in the form he is in. He won three stages and the GC of Vuelta Andalucia, the Vuelta Murcia, Roma Maxima, the Indurain Gran Premio, was 2nd in 3 stages of the Tour of the Basque Country and 4th in Amstel Gold Race before his win in Fleche Wallone on Wednesday.

Phillipe Gilbert - 5/1 BMC



Legend. Winner of this race in 2011 when he won the treble (also Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallone) he was also 3rd here in 2010 and 4th in 2009. He was only 9th in Fleche Wallone on Wednesday but the late crash caused mayhem, and he ended up in a terrible position. I'm convinced he would have been there or thereabouts without the crash, certainly no-one could live with his final kick on the Cauberg in Amstel Gold and it would be no surprise to see him win again here.

Michal Kwiatowski - 6/1 Quickstep



Signalled his intentions for this year's Classics by giving none other than Sagan a kicking on the final climb at Stade Bianchi. Before that he'd won Volta a Algarve, then was 2nd at the Tour of the Basque Country. He's been on the premises at both Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallone, coming 5th and 3rd, and he was 5th in this last year. The Pole is going to be an absolute star - he sprints, climbs and time trials. It would be no surprise to see him winning this in years to come but maybe not this year.

Dan Martin - Garmin 7/1

Won this in superb style last year after superb work by his teammate Ryder Hesjedal, when he followed Purito Rodriguez's attack on the last climb and then time trialled away from him on the flatter section. He was also 5th here in 2012. Before his win last year he advertised his form with a fast-finishing 4th in Fleche Wallone. On Wednesday the Irish climber took 2nd in Fleche Wallone behind Valverde and looked very strong, so that form means he must be a very serious player for this.

Vincenzo Nibali - Astana 20/1

Nibali has looked very strong in these classics. He rode very well for a long time in Amstel Gold and then rode for Gasparotto at Fleche Wallone. He's probably the best out-and-out climber in the race, and he was 2nd in this race in 2012. I really fancy him to go well in this and at the prices he's the one I want to be on.

Joaquim Rodriguez - Katusha 14/1



When the road gets very steep Purito is the best there is. He won Fleche Wallone in 2012 and was second in this behind Martin last year only getting caught late on. He was 2nd here back in 2009 as well, and if fit he would be high on the list. He crashed in Amstel Gold on Sunday and it remains to be seen whether he is over that. He raced Fleche Wallone on Wednesday and whilst his 70th place finish would suggest he isn't at 100%, he did seem to go well for a long way. Might be worth a tickle at the price.

Bauke Mollema - Belkin 28/1

Whilst he isn't as explosive a climber as some of these, Mollema is ultra-consistent, and in form. 7th in Amstel Gold and 4th in Fleche Wallone show you'll get a run for your money with Mollema, and there's a chance this might suit him best of all, using his strength as the gradient eases off to time trial to the finish if he can get himself on the premises, and although he was disappointing in this last year he was 6th in 2012.

Simon Gerrans - Orica 25/1



Gerrans is a top class puncher who on his day can trouble both fast men and climbers. He's ultra consistent and although his preparation for the Spring Classic season hasn't been ideal, he showed his form in the Brabant Arrow when working for his teammate Matthews. Then leading the team he was excellent in Amstel Gold when he was 3rd behind Gilbert. He didn't ride Fleche Wallone but does have a string of top finishes at LBL, with 5 top 20 finishes in the last 5 versions.

Jelle Vanendert - Lotto 25/1

Vanendert has been superb in this Ardennes Classics season, with 2nd in Amstel Gold when he seemingly came from nowhere, and 6th in Fleche Wallone. He's got previous as well, in 2012 he was 2nd in Amstel Gold and 4th in Fleche Wallone before a 10th place finish in LBL. Could go well at a price, but was a lot bigger for Amstel Gold.

Bets for me
*** Nibali 20/1
** Mollema 28/1
* Rodriguez 14/1

Good luck everyone, whoever you're on