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15 May 17
12:08
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12 Jun 11
Good morning campers.....are we all ready to reinvest our winnings from sunny Sawgrass?
Orders are in for Dusty, Louis and JB.
Orders are in for Dusty, Louis and JB.
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Hi HG, 'winnings from Sawgrass'? I won but I would suggest that very few others did. One person from the Tipping Thread choose SWK last week and they had 5 Picks each. Enough said. Golf betting/prediction is not an exact science and people who make predictions regularly will, just as regularly make fools of themselves. People who get lucky should also see their luck for what it is, ie luck. I traded on Westwood last week and was lucky that his best round was his first one. I still believe that logic prevails in all this. So, enough said and onwards we go to the AT&T with our few pence.
Here's the deal for heavy players at short odds, it looks like if you get a late Tee on Thursday you might as well be in Stall 11 in a 5F race at Chester, ie you might as well stay at home. If you are betting short/heavy on favs at least wait until you know you have an early slot Thursday. That's not me talking , that's what the weather says. The people who operate the early betting markets on Betfair are robotic and appear to know/ care little about the event other than to get the thing started and let it evolve. I have been raiding big prices all morning, ie 7 euro's of Brian Gay at 400/1 + etc, At these prices you are left with alot of options, I bought the following early and you can watch them either lengthen or shorten as we get towards Thurs. Bryce Molder524.25 €4.00 €2,093.00 Morgan Hoffmann420.00 €3.00 €1,257.00 Michael Thompson510.00 €5.00 €2,545.00 Brian Gay404.36 €7.20 €2,904.20 D.A. Points610.00 €5.00 €3,045.00 €24.20 This sort of activity helps to calibrate your instinct and if I cannot cash out for profit on Thurs morning then I am not worth reading. If I presumed an early Thurs Tee I would suggest that the following are well suited to perhaps winning this. 1 Dustin 2 Koepka 3 Hoffman(C) 4 Leisman 5 Gay 6 Points That's my tuppence worth for nothing ''Thanks and Good Luck to All.'' |
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Hello to you MM.....you forget, this is the Betfair Golf Forum....everyone's a winner.
As far as I can make out MM, you won a few Euro of Westwood, never mentioned your first round leader bets, and disappeared over the horizon. It's a betting exchange, old chum. Your position isn't static. Speaking for myself, I had Noren at 220, he traded at 14......that's a profit. If TB didn't make a very nice profit out of Oosty,(who you presumed had no chance), and Poullter, I'd be very surprised! I hear what you're saying about favourites going out late.....but weather isn't an exact science, no matter what the alarmists claim. High winds in the morning can drop away in the afternoon. I took Dusty at 6.8, so all's good. I think you may have jumped on a few of those outsiders too soon there boy. Their prices tend to drift dramatically before the Market forms properly. But hey ho, and away we go. Teaching your Granny how to suck eggs, springs to mind, but, as I said earlier....everyone's an expert....everyone's a winner. Good luck.  |
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Hi HG,
Simple question about Noren/ Glover etc, etc, last week. Did you sell? Did you win? Golfers were attempting to change their ways last week. It was only when Oh Oh Oosthuizen went back to the driver yesterday that the wheels came off.Did you see Mickelson's new 'tap tap' putting technique. Amazing change from his former Bubbaesque ramblings on the flat surface. We were told on Sky that Singh had found something in his putting on the OAP Tour. Trouble with old guys is that when they go to bed they forget what they previously knew. SWK we were posthously told had overcome his back/body problems. Hindsight is BS, in my book. Anyway! Did TB win? I hope he did. I had pence on Kelly for first round leader. Can you even remember the first and second in that market. Was it McGirt and Mckenzie? The only winner there was the bookies. What if I had tipped Day at 10/1 Would that be better. About weather, I take your point. Today is Monday and the thing starts on Thursday. When they take them off the course for thunderstorms the resulting delay can 'flip-flop' the advantage. Do you play golf HG, try getting the ball to go where you want it to on a windy day. We have to use the available information to make a judgement. Assimilate this towards a conclusion of sorts if you wish. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/irving-tx/75060/weather-forecast/340866 When I was interacting with TB last week I was offering him websites that he might not have previously been aware of. I prefaced my submission last week by saying that I am a buy to sell. Betfair is an exchange where you should exchange value for more value, kinda like an antique shop. If you regard my latest purchases as junk then the market will offer its verdict on this in due course. Let me be Frank, we take advice from some of the worst tipsters imaginable, and yet when meagi makes money it is 'trivia'... With regard to your Dustin Bet, he was my top pick but if he starts in bad weather he will look more like a 10 than a six. I agree with you that we are all winners on this forum as we live in an age of instant access to as much data as we can effectively assimilate and even more. What do you make of the weather forecast, HG? Make a call. Are you going to ignore it? |
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Hi chaps,
Yesterday was my biggest profit for 18 months, and barely touching the winner either way. More than one way to skin a cat. Poulter would still have been a very nice car, and should probably have traded more when I knew deep down he was destined for 2nd, but so it goes. Good field for this one, not a great forecast though. Looks like storms could be heavily involved so little point being wed to one wave or another when tee times are released, certainly not til the hourly forecast is clearer on Thursday. |
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I started with a £40 bank MM and doubled it. I'm more than happy with that.
"Golf / The Players Championship 2017 : Winner 11-May-17 12:10 15-May-17 00:01 (£42.11) Profit and Loss is shown net of commission. All times are UKT " Where to start? The weather forecast...it's just that chum, a forecast. You're over thinking it. Primarily we are looking for golfers in form. Ideally, played well last week, but just below the radar. Has shown good course form. Is Dusty in good form? Oosty/JB ? Would I let a late tee time on Thursday put me off backing someone? Definitely not! You had a nice wee touch with WW, but to suggest that 'very few others' made a profit at the Players is a tad silly. Rhino backed JB at 12s. I think.....I'd like to think he made a tidy profit there too. Anywhoooo, each to their own, and I wish you the very best of good fortune in your future endeavours.  |
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I knew you had to have had made a tidy profit there TB.
I even managed to sneak a few Quid off Summerhays and HV III. The weather forecast for Sunday at Sawgrass was for thunderstorms........ |
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Hi HG, TB, Well Done and good hunting again this week.
I bet very modestly and selectively. This was last week from an input of 54 quid, I see it as about 120% profit. Start time Settled date Profit/loss (€) Golf / The Players Championship 2017 : Winner 11-May-17 12:10 15-May-17 00:01 65.48 This week I am going for a Tournament Match Double for 40 euro. There should be plenty of play in this weeks golf. If you are interested I will post it pre-tournament when I see weather tee times.  |
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I won but I would suggest that very few others did.
 Wax on wax off my good man. |
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Best week for ages for me last week. Superb performance from Kim.
Main fancies this week are Sergio, Dufner and Woodland. Also throwing a few quid at daft prices on DA Points and Ricky Barnes as backs to lay. |
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MCs at Sawgrass should be taken with a grain of salt. Certainly no reason to see Spieth at his majors price in a ho-hum event in Dallas of all places. What gives?
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Spieth 18s
 Would hazard a guess biggest price since before he won The Masters. |
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Spieth's record here is mediocre by his standards and his form in general has been patchy. I think when you look at Day's price, who has a better record but worse form or Koepka or Serge who have course and current form the price for Spieth looks about right.
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Tee Times out if you fancy a look(early)
http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/at-t-byron-nelson/tee-times.html Weather report is inconclusive, at this stage it might even be better late Thurs, or it might have minimal significance except that it will be generally windy and probably wet Thurs morning. I will update as best I can on Thurs morning. Good Luck to All |
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spieth seems out of sorts but was in final group last year and won the week afterwards.
agree 18s is probably too big also like reed |
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AT&T Byron Nelson 2017
Its back to Texas for the FOURTH time this year as Masters Champion Sergio Garcia defends his title with four of the world's Top 6 (8 of the T20) in the 156 player field. The field often lacks depth as this tournament often takes a back seat to other prominent events between the Masters and US OPEN. Remember US OPEN places are still up for grabs...The Top 60 in the OWGR next Monday receive automatic berths. The first half of a Texas ‘Two Step’ honouring two GREATS of the Game - this week it’s Byron Nelson, from the TPC Four Seasons Resort in Irving followed next week by Ben Hogan at Colonial C.C. It’s also the 35th and final time as host for TPC Four Seasons as the event moves just south of downtown Dallas next year, to the Coore/Crenshaw links-style layout at Trinity Forest GC - a former landfill site where they turned trash into treasure - Spieth is a member. Jordan’s best finish at this track is T-16 in 2010 when he was in high school and he plays it every year. The second-last of five stops this season in the Lone Star State (of mind). We return to the Dallas area for an event established in 1944, the Nelson is currently the ninth-oldest edition played annually on TOUR. Named after the great Byron Nelson, who won the inaugural event by 10 shots, it was the first tournament on TOUR named after a player. Nelson would sit in the shade and greet the players as they walked off No. 18 before his death in 2006. TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas has been the host course since the mid-80s and was one of two courses used until 2008. After the Weibring/Wolfard redesign in 2007-08 it has featured as the only course in play so that’s where any horses for courses come in. The redesign added water to get the players attention with tough driving holes that include elaborate bunkering and plenty of trees. Water is abundant so players will have to hold their nerve coming down the stretch and keep the golf ball in play on this shot makers course. TPC Four Seasons features Bermuda on fairways and rough, but the large, undulating greens are bent grass. It has consistently ranked inside the top-20 toughest golf courses on the PGA TOUR. With only two par fives again this week (par 70 - 7,166yds - 35/35) players will need to find a way to score on the par fours, requiring a bit of nerve off the tee as these fairways are challenging to hit and avoid big numbers. Todd was successful in 2014 as he only made three bogeys and a double for the week while Bowditch soaked up 27 birdies in 2015 in the rain. In his winning effort last year, Garcia took 45 holes to card his first bogey and only squared six for the week. It also didn’t hurt that he made every putt he looked at and only found two bunkers on the week as he finished T-4 GIR. Avoiding bunkers and bogeys sounds a right plan! First-timers excel here with four of the last seven winning on TOUR for the first time. Garcia, Bowditch & Dufner the exceptions. Day, Bradley and Bae had never played in the event so course history here is not a dominating factor. WINNERS..... 2016: Sergio Garcia; 265 playoff. Sergio chased down 54-hole record-setter Brooks Koepka and beat him on the first playoff hole for his second playoff win in this event (2004). 2015: Steven Bowditch (62,68,65,64) 259 Tournament Record - by 4 shots from C.Hoffman, Pinckney & Walker. *Rain-altered layout with two rounds of par 69. 2014: Brendon Todd; 266 2013: Sangmoon Bae; 267 (Keegan Bradley opened with 60). 2012: Jason Dufner; 269 2011: Keegan Bradley fought the wind and Ryan Palmer to win a playoff as they fired 277, the highest total since the redesign. 2010: Jason Day; 270 2009: Rory Sabbatini destroyed the redesign with 261 2008: Adam Scott; 273 playoff http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/irving-tx/75060/hourly-weather-forecast/340866?hour=57 Hey Duuuuuuuude, I'm going to Texas where its sizzling hot until Thursday in Irving, TX with a 70/30 chance of 'severe' thunderstorms the first three days before northerly winds cool the place down to the 80’s on Sunday. Wind from four different directions, on the four days, with those northerly winds the exact opposite of the southerly winds that will open the tournament. Look-out for someone who can pierce the wind with their ball flight. • Played since 1944 this is the ninth-longest running event on Tour and first named after a former player (1968). • Tournament record event: 261; Sabbatini, 2009. • Course record: 60; Bradley, 2013. • Defending champion(s): none since the redesign. • Multiple champions: none since TPC Four seasons became the exclusive course. • Multiple champion, event: last Sergio Garcia (2004, 2016). • Maiden Tour victory: Day, Bradley, Bae and Todd. • First time at event: Day, Bradley and Bae. • Adam ‘Texas Slam’ Scott is the only player to win all four regular Texas Tour stops in his career. Of the last 22 champs, 16 have placed all four rounds in the 60’s while of the last nine winners, only three have been from the States. What is it about Aussie’s in Texas anyway? Will it be 55/1 shot Marc Leishman’s turn at 8am on Thursday. Course form reads mc,mc,3,12,3,mc,12 & 8th in 2009. Dufner, Poulter & Koepka get off early followed by the featured group of Spieth, Sneds and Kuchar at 7.50am on Thursday morning (with red hot Bud Cauley out first at 7am). Dustbin 9/2 fav, Gribble and Oosthuizen only get going at 12.40pm followed immediately by Garcia, Reed and Justin Day. Tonto says “HOLD ALL BETS ‘til Thursday morning Kemosabe." © CMiyc  |
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Added:
Spieth at 18 (too big) Henley at 48 Moore at 65 Cody Gribble at 610 Tyrone van Aswegen at 820 and still awaiting orders on my good friends Danny Summerhays and Harris English. |
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Well played TB.Will there be a large tax bill today or are you still playing the purple place ? A modest wage for the week
for me and most of that will disappear shortly. |
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Thanks Frames, still about 90% purple when I can be so no gut punch coming up today. I had £100 on Poulter at 500 on here (and more over there) so if we'd won there would have been a few more cases of bubbly at the BF xmas party. Are you still on the weekly grind or just picking and choosing the big ones? Would have thought it was time for a bit of leeway on the PC to boost the markets but I'm not sure anyone there really cares any more.
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Just the bigger Euro events ( not many of those ) and the majors + players.I'm sure they don't care and if anything are more likely to increase it.My thoughts are if I'm going to watch a tournament I might as well be on here..The plus is the garden looks well and the dogs get out for decent walks every day.
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Heck of a pick btw,Poulter.
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Account just been raided ,paid nearly double this week than I did for my best ever week back in the day.They were good the old days.
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Someone was desperate to lay Poulter for chunks on day 1. Thought 500 was decent value before the start but didn't play, but was still there when he birdied the first so seemed like a play. If he'd won I was going to contact BF for a chat about it as the PC would have been more than my car cost. I doubt they'd even have picked up though. The good old days are gone for sure, don't know how the PC can even be that lucrative for them any more, will have driven a lot to slow down or stop and the markets don't really have enough in them to sustain a new generation of PC payers.
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new poster on golf like to read all the news 3 for byron 10 win spieth 16s koepka 10 win 16s summerhayes 5 ew 275-1 good luck to all
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You should call them TB. Rumours abound that deals have been struck, not sure if that is just in Oz or not (Oz arm owned by Crown Casino).
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Weather
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/irving-tx/75060/hourly-weather-forecast/340866?hour=31 I little wetter in the morning and a little windier mid day, Friday will be similar, no significant bias that I can detect, good luck to all. I usually watch two newbies for a week and I have pence on these two guys for 1st Rd Leader. Etulain and Willie(2putter)Wilcox. I am getting off this thread to allow space for 'more profound ruminations' You will find my bet this week on a new thread. 'Meagi Magic'.  |
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Rhino - I reckon you'd need to be bigger and on more markets than me before they contemplated a deal. Situation requires a better deal for everyone to get the markets kick-started. Always thought a minimum weekly threshold before things kick in would be a fair way.
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Featured groups are about to get underway
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If Poulter wins this week......
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All over (what I could) Fdez-Castano Top Spaniard @ 6.5...
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Gribble showing why he was the obvious choice for a featured group.
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JB an impressive +19 his last 30 holes on the tour.
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Moore +3 and cruising his 3-ball.
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Keep it going Ricky B.
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Every year they produce these features about Nelson's achievements in 1945, but I can't help thinking the guys who were away shooting Nazis achieved more.
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So, how many shots is DJ going to win by anyone?
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I layed a chunk of the Dustman back at 3.4.
Covered Koepka and Day, and had a little dabble of the very talented Sebastian Munoz at 510. |