My 2015-16 PGA Tour tips thread

US Masters One to Trade & first round leader selections

Evening all, one to trade this week is my first 1000 shot this season in the form of Vaughn Taylor, [well actually 990 available as I type but I backed him at 1000 last week]. Obviously a bit of a flyer here & he's certainly not going to be winning the masters! I can however see the Augusta local being inspired by his return to the event & going well for a couple of rounds. Lets also not forgot that in one of his 3 previous starts here he was right in the hunt & his strongest suit in his putting, is obviously perfect for the course.

Following on from this I have had a couple of big e/w outsiders including Taylor in the first rnd leader market as follows;

V Taylor   1/2 pt e/w  200-1 1/4 1st 5
D Love III 1/2 pt e/w  200-1 1/5 1st 7


The reasons for Taylor are obviously same as above. My reasoning with DL3, whilst speculative, is that it's not uncommon in the Masters for a veteran with all the course experience in the bank to 'roll back the years' for a round or two [think couples, Jimenez etc over recent yrs] & a bit like Taylor I think DL3 will just relish being back their again, something he probably thought would never happen & free wheel it with no pressure.

Hopefully at least one of them can give me a bit of a run on Thursday!

Masters results

Morning All, well not much I can add to what has no doubt already been said in many places. Basically one of the most remarkable 9 holes you'll ever see!! I'm a big fan of Willett & had a good return on him in Cadillac WGC only a few weeks back. Unfortunately this week instead of playing the infamous 'nappy factor' rule I went with the 'under prepared' view on him. Oh well! Massive congratulations to him anyway. Not my week all round even to the extent of when Rose looked like 'back dooring' in to places he decided to finish bogey, bogey. Results as follows; 

P Mickelson    M/C
J Rose         10th
L Oousthuizen  15th
C Schwartzel   M/C
R Moore        M/C
C Kirk         M/C

Both 1st round leader bets also flopped although DL3 had a solid week at least!

Event Tally -14pts


Seasons Tally - 47.625pts

'one to trade' Vaughn Taylor, M/C, sums the week up for me!

RBC Heritage selections

Z Johnson    25-1  1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6
B Grace      40-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7
L Donald     50-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7
R Henley     66-1  1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6
S Brown      80-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7

Good luck All!

Heritage 'one to trade'

Derek Fathauer. As mentioned before loves Pete Dye courses & whilst no form to note at Hilton Head, has also shown a liking to this type of windy coastal course in the past such as at mayakoba last year,  Currently trading around 300.

Winner and 2nd place. Well done Sundog!

RBC Heritage Results

Morning All, cheers Albert Square, certainly nice to get back in the winners enclosure after what had been a few barren weeks. Obviously neither Grace nor Donald were particularly left field selections but that's the beauty of golf betting, 40/50-1 shots are often players with pretty obvious credentials. Results as follows; 

Z Johnson    33rd
B Grace      1st!!
L Donald     2nd!
R Henley     23rd
S Brown      64th

Event Tally +51pts


Seasons Tally +3.375 pts

'one to trade' Derek Fathauer made the cut but nothing more, albeit he did start with a birdie & trade in the 100s but never reached the target price.

w/d sundog

Valero Texas Selections

Cheers Xmoney! Hopefully another good week in store! Selections as follows;

B Horschel    35-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7
R Henley      50-1  1pt e/w  1/4 1st 5
S W Kim       66-1  1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6
A Baddeley   100-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7
J Vegas      100-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7

Good luck All!

well done sdm

Following Henley over the cliff I see

Thanks Donny. Re Henley, just think he's due again & his stats off he tee are very good this season, which appears essential on this course. Obviously knows how to get the job done as well if in the mix, which always helps. Having said that as straightforward as the Heritage is to find the type of player who'll play well their, this event is as difficult & the only loose connection I can see between Walker, Bowditch, Laird, Curtis, Steele & Scott is that 3 of them are internationals [2 Aussie's] and two more have played well overseas in Curtis obviously & Steele who played well in France. Throw in the Greg Norman design & some Texas winds [hence Walker] and leads me to think that the course suits an all round player who you could see playing well in the British Open or in Australia & Henley fits that criteria for me. I'll let you know Sunday evening about 11pm if I was right or not!

Valero 'one to trade'

Andrew Loupe. Improving on PGA tour & played well for a couple of rounds at Houston recently. 4th here a couple of years ago & his big hitting & strong putting will suit conditions if it does play soft as anticipated.  Currently trading around 200.

Valero Results

Morning all

Well memo to myself. "don't be a smart arse & ignore the bleeding obvious!!" A lesson I've learnt a few times over the years but obviously need to remind myself of every now & again in that instead of poring over stats, what type of player you think will play well at the course etc, sometimes it just pays to back the obvious man in form who loves the course! Anyway, well done to Charlie & one that most definitely got away! Results as follows;

B Horschel    Tied 4th [shared place at 4/5ths of stake]
R Henley      M/C
S W Kim       M/C
A Baddeley    29th
J Vegas       M/C

Event Tally  -3.6


Seasons Tally - 0.225 pts!

One to trade A Loupe - M/C

Zurich Classic Selections

Selections as follows;

B Horschel    22-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7
D Berger      28-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7
S Kaufman     40-1  1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6
C Tringale    60-1  1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6
J Lovemark    60-1  1pt e/w  1/5 1st 7

Good luck All!

Hi All,

Whilst I am keeping the running tally of my main weekly selections I thought it would also be interesting to post an update on how my 'one to trade' selections have fared so far this season so here goes.

There have been 23 'one to trade' selections so far. One of these, Bud Caulay, withdrew before off, so in effect there have been 22 bets. As mentioned earlier in the thread my target is for the player to trade at a quarter of the price backed at so if backed at 200 I'm looking for him to trade at 50 during the event. Before the off I'll set up a 'lay' at 50 [based on this example] of 3 x my original stake, so if I staked £10 my lay would be £30. This would mean that if matched at £50 I would have a £20 green field & still have £500 in on the 'trade' selection to either let ride or trade some more out if they got right in the mix.

Based on this of the 22 bets so far 9 of them have traded at the required quarter of price backed at, or much shorter.

In seasons order these are;

Reifers
Smylie
Overton
Kirk
Kirk [again!]
Overton [again!]
Vegas
Piercy
Reavie

This would mean that based on my £10 stake example I would have lost £130 in total on the weeks where selection had flopped but had returned £180 profit [9 x £20 green field] on the other 9 weeks so net profit of £50 based on overall outlay of £220.

Obviously though the story doesn't end there because of the 9 who have traded at the required price, 4 off them, Reifers, Smylie, Piercy & Reavie have traded way, way shorter and obviously in Smylie's case won. meaning there's been room for considerable further profit!

All in all therefore been really pleased with the performance of these & if anyone has happened to just follow me blindly on my 'trader' selection every week hopefully they have made a nice few quid. Fingers crossed that I haven't put the mockers on the 'trader' now & hopefully I can keep it up for rest of the season!

Zurich Classic - 'One to Trade'

Blayne Barber - Can blow hot & cold but no doubt has the talent to compete at this level. Had a decent finish here last year & I think from his 18 cuts made on the tour in past season & half 6 of them have resulted in top 12 finishes. Missed his last 3 cuts but again as per his 3rd at Honda his tendency is to pop up out of nowhere. Currently trading around 260 mark.

Zurich Results

OK, Play off's are really beginning to F*$kc me off this season! That's 0 for 3 now! Sneds inability to finish things off in Hawaii, Duf's ridiculous 'rock shot' putting pay to Lingmerth & now this! Next Play Off one of my men gets in I'm definitely due!  Results as follows;

B Horschel     36th
D Berger      20th
S Kaufman     M/C
C Tringale    48th
J Lovemark    2nd....

Event Tally  + 3pts

Seasons Tally + 2.775

One to trade Blayne Barber made a cheque in 48th but not much else.

Another near miss! Small profit anyway :-)

unlucky sdm, although i suppose we golf backers are never surprised by the ways they find
no not win

to not win

Wells Fargo Selections

Cheers guys, it does seem the cookies haven't really crumbled my way this season so far in that the winners I've had have won fairly comfortably like Grace a couple of weeks ago whereas the close ones have gone against me. Still, plenty more golf to be played this season & hopefully I'll get a 'Jim Herman' going my way sometime over the next few months. This weeks selections as follows;

K Chappell    45-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
D Berger      50-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
J Lovemark    55-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7 [Hoping he can do a Kyle Stanley!]
P Rodgers     90-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
R Moore       90-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6

Good luck all!

Apologies Just noticed Berger's price has been cut since I backed him to 40s now. To be honest not sure I would have backed/selected him at 40s, but I will keep him in at the revised price.

Wells Fargo - 'One to Trade'

Harold Varner III - 2 good finishes last 2 events, hits the ball a mile, which helps here & has local connections. Currently trading between 190-220.

Wells Fargo Results

Well a fairly quiet week with nothing to get too excited about, although I was hopeful for Berger after 36 holes. Major kudos to anyone who had Hahn in their starting team! Results as follows;

K Chappell    41st
D Berger      17th
J Lovemark    53rd
P Rodgers     M/C
R Moore       M/C

Event Tally  -10pts

Seasons Tally -7.225

One to trade Harold Varner III fared better & depending on what price anyone backed him at he potentially traded at the target price of a 1/4 of price backed. Unfortunately for me I was on at 200 and he didn't quite reach 50, with I believe 60 being lowest price matched.

Players Championship Selections

Evening All, OK, so this is my favourite event of the year. There are two reasons for this, one is that I love the course & the drama it delivers & secondly time & time again the winner comes from the same identikit formula, which has lead me to some great results over the years, the most recent being Kaymer a couple of years ago. Going back to 2004 when Adam Scott one the formula is pretty simple as follows;

1 Every winner has played the event at least twice before & with the average being about 5 or 6 starts. Scott himself was the only one to win on 3rd visit. Equally you don't see some finally winning this after 15 starts etc.
2 Every winner had previously had a previous high finish in the event. Again Scott was the lowest at 17th the previous year whilst even less heralded winners Clark & Funk had finished 9th & 10th respectively the previous year to winning. Ames had been 2nd before, Kaymer had been 15th, Kuch 13th, KJ 16th , Sergio 2nd, Henrik 3rd.
3 Every winner had played & made the cut the previous year in the event.

Add to this that the vast majority of winners are proven tour winners who have either won a major or are at least a proven tour winner of bigger events or have played Ryder/Presidents Cup. Basically you don't got first time winners here,  [not since Perks anyway!] although off course like Kisner last year someone inevitably goes close. Also perhaps even more interestingly as this is know as "the 5th major" several winners are in the bracket of players who have contended in majors bet have never quite been able to get over the line with Sergio, Stenson, Kuch, KJ & Clark being obvious examples of this over recent years.

Finally Good form coming in obviously helps. KJ was flying the year he won. Ames was 7th the week before. Kaymer had lead half way @ Quail Hollow the week before etc.

Now obviously stats are there to be broken & ultimately if Spieth is stood on the 17th on Sunday tied for the lead he's not going to be thinking 'I missed the cut last year so I can't win this!' However as I've said the formula has done well for me over the recent years so I'm going to stick with it. Straight away therefore off my list goes Rose, Day, Spieth, Mickelson, Walker, Sneds, Kuch as they all missed the cut last year along with the likes of Bubba, DJ, Willett, Grace for a lack of course form. When I then narrow it down to the the type pedigree of player required, the previous decent finish, the rough relevant number of starts & the made cut last year, I was left on my long list with Rory, Sergio, Stenson, Kaymer, Hideki, Zach, JB, Haas, Leishman, Kirk, Knox, Horschel & Scott and I wouldn't put anyone off any of these. However you have to narrow it down & I've settled for the following 6 players this week;


S Garcia      25-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 7
H Matsuyama   30-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
B Horschel    60-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
R Knox        80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 7
c kirk        80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 7
M Leishman   100-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 7


Good luck all & enjoy the drama!

Good post sundog, all the best this week.

Players Championship - One to Trade

Francesco Molinari - Good course record & obviously his game is suited to Sawgrass. Coming in to form nicely. Can't see him winning but can see a big week. Was trading at 300ish earlier in the week but has been well backed in to 230.

Following on from this I have also had 1/2 point e/w on him for first round leader at 100-1 1/5 1st 7 as he has a good morning tee time.

Players Championship Results

Well a great performance from Day all be it that his 'wire to wire' win took away some of the drama you usually associate with this event. As per my initial selections post he is the first winner in 13yrs or so who missed the cut the previous year at the event. He ticked all the other boxes for the winners profile though having had the requisite high finish their when 6th 2yrs ago & obviously by being in great current form & being the sort of 'name' player you would expect to win this event. I honestly thought Hideki had a good chance of reeling him on Sunday but from the moment he played the first 3 holes so poorly he was out of the mix & needless to say managed to finish 7th when I had chosen the bigger price for 6 places! Also had high hopes for knox going in to weekend but like many others I suspect I cringed in horror as my e/w chances got washed away at 17. Results as follows;

S Garcia      54th
H Matsuyama   7th
B Horschel    28th 
R Knox        19th
c kirk        W/D
M Leishman    64th

One to trade Molinari fared much better however & gave a good return trading down in the 20s. He also gave a small return on the 1st rnd leader bet where he tied with 5 others for 7th place therefore returning 1.75 points to the 1/2 point e/w stake. Overall tallys for week therefore as follows;

Event Tally  --11.25pts

Seasons Tally -18.5pts

Byron Nelson Selections

On to Byron Nelson. Selections as follows;


D Lee         55-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
J Blixt       80-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
B Weekley     90-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
J Curran      150-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
M Piller      250-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7

Good luck all!

Byron Nelson 'One to Trade'

Adam Hadwin - Was going to put Piller in again here along with having him in my main team but his price has crashed on here today [I'm assuming someone else other than me has tipped him somewhere!], instead therefore I'll take a chance with Hadwin. Solid if unspectacular of late but this sort of birdie fest should be much more to the liking of him as his putting is the strength of his game. Currently trading around 400.

Byron Nelson Results

Well ultimately another blank week although Lee & Curran gave cause for optimism at various stages. Results as follows;

D Lee         18th
J Blixt       49th
B Weekley     41st
J Curran      34th
M Piller      M/C

Event Tally  -10pts

Seasons Tally -28.5pts

One to trade Adam Hadwin fared well though trading in 60-70 area so a good profit for anyone who got on around 400.

Dean & Deluca - Colonial Selections

Going to give another chance to both Danny Lee & Boo this week. Team as follows;

D Lee          40-1 1pt e/w
C Knost        50-1 1pt e/w
B Weekley      80-1 1pt e/w
B Crane       200-1 1pt e/w
S Stallings   200-1 1pt e/w

All 1/4 1st 5.

Good luck all. Looking at the weather forecast could be another long week!

Colonial - 'One to Trade'

John Curran - Another chance for Curran who was in my main team last week. Played well enough & this course should suit. Currently trading around 300.

Colonial Results

Not really much to say about this week! Results as follows;

D Lee          22nd
C Knost        67th
B Weekley      M/C
B Crane        29th
S Stallings    M/C

Event Tally  -10pts

Seasons Tally -38.5pts

One to trade John Curran made the cut but not much else. We move on.

Memorial Selections

One of my favourite events. Team as follows;

H Matsuyama        20-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
C Kirk             66-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
K Chappell         80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
J Thomas           80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
R Moore           150-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6

Good luck all.

Memorial 'one to trade'

Bud Caulay - Once he finds form tends to stay hot for a while. Currently trading around 300.

Memorial Results

Another blank week with a lot of head shaking my end as Curran who I have been on the past two weeks nearly won! Results as follows;

H Matsuyama        M/C
C Kirk             M/C
K Chappell         48th
J Thomas           M/C
R Moore            48th

Event Tally  -10pts

Seasons Tally -48.5pts

One to trade Bud Caulay played reasonably solidly but didn't make the target trade price.

Fedex St Jude Selections

Team as follows;
 
D Berger           33-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
G Woodland         25-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
B Caulay          100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
S Stallings       150-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
M Thompson        175-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6

Weather looks great for a change. Good luck all.

Fedex St Jude 'one to trade'

I was all set to go with Malnati at the beginning of the week but he was tipped up elsewhere & his price crashed before I got on. Instead therefore I'm going to take a flyer on Andres Gonzales who is currently trading around 640. Played steadily enough at Byron Nelson last time out & qualified well for US Open on Monday. Also has a nice early tee time.

Nice Winner Sundog

Fedex St Jude results

Cheers Albert Square, nice to be heading back in the right direction! Results as follows:

D Berger  1st!! 
G Woodland M/C
M Thompson M/C
B Caulay M/C
S Stallings 41st

Event Tally  + 33.25pts

Seasons Tally -15.25pts

One to trade Andres Gonzales never got started!

US Open Selections

6 for me this week being a major.

Bubba Watson   40-1 1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6 [Think Bubba is great value this week, played well here in 07 & his length is bound to be an advantage].
M Kaymer       66-1 1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6
M Leishman     80-1 1pt e/w  1/4 1st 6 [Missed the boat in price here as tipped elsewhere but reluctant to leave him out]
K Chappell     100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
B Horschel     100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
S Lowry        125-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6

Good luck all & enjoy, should be grat viewing!

Apologies Leishman should read 90-1.

US Open 'one to trade'

Smylie Kaufman - Hits it a mile, which will certainly help here & his putting is his strongest suit, which will also be a big advantage. I am going with the theory this week that a similar kind of creative player to that which fares well at Augusta could fare well here, hence my keenness on Bubba & Smylie certainly showed he had the game required their in the Masters. Can see him going well at least for a couple of rounds. Currently trading around 410.

well done last week sdm



good luck in us open, i

US Open results

Thanks Donny, wasn't quite to be unfortunately with Lowry. I was fairly certain going in to round 4 that the only person who could beat hum would be himself & ultimately that was basically what happened. Don't get me wrong DJ played a great round & was in place to benefit from Lowry wilting as Willett was at Masters but if Shane shoots 70, or 71 [or even 72 with DJ's penalty] it would have been good enough.  Anyway it could have been worse as I was fearing for the place money as he was making a hash of 17 with a 2 stroke cushion on 6th place, but he holed a great par put, which then calmed him for 18. Back in front for the season anyway! Results as follows:

Bubba Watson   51st
M Kaymer       37th
M Leishman     18th
K Chappell     M/C
B Horschel     32nd
S Lowry        2nd

Event Tally  + 20.5 pts

Seasons Tally +5.25 5pts

One to trade Smylie Kaufman M/C

Quicken Loans Selections

M Leishman  30-1  1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
G Woodland  40-1  1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
R Castro    50-1  1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
K Streelman 80-1  1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
A Loupe     250-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6

Back at Congressional, which is a great course so hopefully will be a good event. Good luck all!

Unlucky with Lowry last week. Still back in profit though.

Quicken Loans 'One to Trade'.

Cheers A.S, hopefully can keep going in the right direction this week! Trader for this week is Billy Hurley III. Pretty obvious choice this. Has close ties to the area from his naval days & this is pretty much the only course on PGA tour he's ever 'made any noise' on. Currently trading just over 200.

Hurley III, yet another excellent pick - 400 and has been matched at 90, 2 off the lead as we speak.  Meant to look out for your tip this week, but was otherwise engaged.  Best of luck with it, I'll remember next week!

just seen this weeks one to follow pick, cracking work again.

Great selection well done

well done sdm

i always think its awful when the trade holds on for the win, but thats not the point

great stuff

Well done Sundog, nice to see the Leader hang on this week.

Quicken Loans Results

Morning all, cheers everyone. So for the second time this season [ being the first] my trader has gone & won! A quick word therefore as to why he was my trader & not in my main team. In essence it was a very close call & almost a toss of a coin as to which of BH3 & Loupe would be in the main team & which would be the trader. What it came down to was that whilst BH3 has an obvious affinity for the area & the course, when all was said & done he only had 3 top 5 finishes in his PGA tour career & hadn't had a top 10 prior to this week since god knows when. Loupe meanwhile has 2 top 5's this year & is a player on the up. Ultimately therefore my logic was that Loupe, if he took a liking to the course [which I obviously felt he would] was more likely to stay in the mix & potentially even win, whereas BH3 was more likely to have a solid week, good for a trade & then fade at the business end....Oh well...... Having said that I am not complaining at all as after an initial lay at 60 I felt that based on the way he was playing, coupled by the doubts over everyone else near the top of the leaderboard that he could easily be right in the mix come Sunday, so I didn't lay again until after round 3 when he was trading under 3. This meant that whilst I didn't win nearly as much as I would have done if I had just been on outright it was still a very good week indeed. Anyway results as follows;

M Leishman  39th
G Woodland  21st
R Castro    62nd
K Streelman 12th [This guy will win again soon!]
A Loupe     M/C

Event Tally  -10pts

Seasons Tally -4.75pts

One to Trade.....Enough said!

WGC Bridgestone Inv Selections

Must confess I'm struggling to get over exited about the market in this event & potentially see some much better angles in the second tier event the Barracuda. Therefore only 4 for me in this event as follows;

Branden Grace 1pt e/w 28-1
Jason Dufner  1pt e/w 50-1
D Lingmerth   1pt e/w 80-1
Scott Piercy  1pt e/w 100-1

All 1/4 1st 5.

Good luck all.

Barracuda Selections

As intimated in the above post i'm more enthused from an odds point of view with this event than WGC. 5 selections for me in this. Unfortunately & apologies I'm a bit late posting so I must confess on a couple of the players I got slightly better prices, but the prices shown below are as of now. Selections as follows:

K Reifers   30-1  1pt e/w
M Laird     35-1  1pt e/w
P Rodgers   50-1  1pt e/w
A Gonzales  125-1 1pt e/w
M Hubbard   150-1 1pt e/w

All 1/4 1st 5.

WGC Bridgestone one to trade.

Will McGirt - To be honest this was a bit of a struggle this week to find an angle as there is no one i really fancy to go well in the big priced bracket over 200. In the end I have settled on Will McGirt, who is currently trading around the 180-190 mark. It's been proven over the years by the likes of Furyk that accuracy is important at Firestone & this obviously is McGirt's strength. Buoyed by recent win & one of the earlier starters hopefully he can get out of the blocks to a quick start.

No trader in Barracuda as not enough liquidity in market for decent prices unfortunately.

WGC Bridgestone & Barracuda results

Evening all, well another good week. Shame that Lingmerth didn't place or Laird at Barracuda, or indeed that Piercy didn't win but you can't complain at a profit on the week. Results as follows;

WGC results

Branden Grace 10th
Jason Dufner  51st
D Lingmerth   7th
Scott Piercy  2nd

Event tally +18pts
Seasons Tally +13.25pts

Barracuda Results

K Reifers   9th
M Laird     7th
P Rodgers   59th
A Gonzales  M/C
M Hubbard   20th

Event tally -10pts
Seasons Tally +3.25pts

'One to Trade' Will McGirt also did us proud, trading as low as around 8 or 9 early in round 2.

Week of this week, back next week for the open!

The Open Selections

Always a tricky when this regarding when to back your selections, do you wait for them to drift as bookies push prices out on Tues/Weds or do you back them early in case they get tipped up. I've decided on the latter as think most of mine are likely to be very much on the various tipsters radars. My main selection Branden Grace has been on my radar for this all year for very obvious reasons. Stupidly I did not get on several weeks ago & his price has gradually shortened up, I was therefore happy to see him stall at the weekend in Scotland resulting in a bit of a price drift. It is rare that I am that confident on a player as I am on him this week & obviously he could always get the wrong end of the draw however I am going to go out on a limb & place 3pts e/w on him. My second selection Sergio I am having 2pts e/w on as I find it difficult to see him not being in the mix & giving an e/w return. Six selections in total as follows;

B Grace     28-1   1/4 odds 1st 7  3pts e/w
S Garcia    25-1   1/5 odds 1st 8  2pts e/w
R Fowler    33-1   1/4 odds 1st 6  1pt e/w
M Kaymer    50-1   1/5 odds 1st 8  1pt e/w
G McDowell  90-1   1/4 odds 1st 6  1pt e/w
C Kirk      300-1  1/5 odds 1st 8  1pt e/w

Will be back with a couple of selections for Barbasol in US in due course.

Good luck all & enjoy.

Open Golf Selections

A couple more selections for the Open.

Firstly Colt Knost is available at 10-1 to finish in the top 20 with one firm [as short as 5-1 elsewhere]. Think this is a great price for a man who is in the form of his life this year & has done everything but win & has barely been out of the top 20 over recent months. As a man who comes from Texas & who over the years has shown his best form at places like Hilton head he should also be suited well to the test of Links golf. Wouldn't completely even rule out him being this years Todd Hamilton/Ben Curtis.

Bet - Colt Knost to finish top 20 @ 10-1 - stake 2pts.

Following on from this I will also take knost along with Luke Donald in the first round leader market. Knost has a very late tee time & it is not uncommon for someone to go out very late in the day on day one when the wind has dropped & post a low score. I believe Tom Lewis did it a few years back. Equally Donald comes in completely under the radar & is in the first group out, again normally a good tee time to have. I've chosen the option of shorter odds to get the 8th place e/w.

Selections;

Luke Donald   first round leader    100-1  1/5 odds first 8  1/2 pt e/w
Colt Knost    first round leader    125-1  1/5 odds first 8  1/2 pt e/w

Barbasol Selections

I'm going to take 3 Alabama college grads for this as follows;

Bud Cauley    45-1   1pt e/w
Blayne Barber 50-1   1pt e/w
Will Willcox  60-1   1pt e/w

All 1/4 1st 5

Open Golf 'One to Trade'

Russell Henley - Simply a case here that  based on the courses he has had success on in US, I've thought for a while he has the game required for the Open. Currently trading around 390/400.

That's me all set now. Good luck everyone & enjoy!

Open Golf & Barbasol Results

Well not the best of weeks for me, with only Sergio placing giving some damage limitation. Well done to Henrik & his backers anyway, a great performance from him.

Open Results as follows;

B Grace     72nd
S Garcia    5th
R Fowler    46th
M Kaymer    36th
G McDowell  63rd
C Kirk      M/C


Additional bets;

Colt Knost Top 10 - M/C
Colt Knost & Luke Donald 1st rnd leader no return.

Event tally -10pts
Seasons Tally -6.75 pts

'One to Trade' Russell Henley never got started either.

Barbasol Results

A victory for Badds didn't improve my mood either as he is someone I've always kept an eye on & I was on him for his last win a few years back so disappointed to miss out there as well. Results as follows;


Bud Cauley    31st
Blayne Barber 47th
Will Willcox  54th

Event tally -6pts
Seasons Tally -12.75 pts


There was no 'trader' at the Barbasol.

On to Canada with a hope for better fortune!

RBC Canadian selections

Back to the 'bread & butter'. Hoping Blixt can take the obvious inspiration from Henrik. Also had a decent week here last year when woefully out of form. Also working on the assumption [hope] that whether consciously or not the 'big guns' will have a week where they are re charging batteries mentally & focusing on prep for PGA.

Kevin Streelman 60-1 1/4 1st 6 1pt e/w
David hearn     70-1 1/5 1st 7 1pt e/w
Adam Hadwin     90-1 1/5 1st 7 1pt e/w
Jonas Blixt     150-1 1/4 1st 6 1pt e/w
Shawn stefani   200-1 1/5 1st 7 1pt e/w

Good luck all.

Canadian one to trade. Ben Martin. Finding a bit of form of late and closed on sunday with a 65. Course should also suit his ability to go low. Currently trading around 210.

USPGA selections.  Hi all, currently away with limited internet access. I'll post Canadian open results update thurs/fri later this week when back but obviously wanted to get pga selections up. Apologies also if post looks a bit messy, main thing tho is the info is there! Managed to get some slightly better prices on some of these yesterday but as normal will put prices as off now. Selections as follows. Branden Grace 1pt e/w 55-1. S Garcia 1pt e/w 28-1. B snedeker 1pt e/w 55-1. Jonny Vegas 1pt e/w 150-1. A baddeley 1pt e/w 250-1. C tringale 1pte/w 300-1. Grace & Garcia are both 1/4 1st 6, remainder are 1/5 1st 7. I will also post my trader now which is Ryan Moore. Currently trading low 500s. Good luck all and back to normal from me next week!

Canadian Open Results Update

Hi all, back from my travels so as promised an update on position after Canadian Open, which unfortunately was a pretty dismal blank week!

Results as follows;

Kevin Streelman M/C
David hearn     M/C
Adam Hadwin     49th
Jonas Blixt     M/C
Shawn stefani   M/C

One to trade Ben Martin had a shocker as well!

Event tally -10 pts
Seasons Tally -22.75pts

At the time of writing at least 5 out of my 6 PGA team have made the cut & Ryan Moore the 'trader' has already paid off so touch wood a better week this week.

Will be back with my PGA update on Monday.

USPGA Results

Morning All, well a solid but unspectacular week from my end with Henrik & Streb doing us a favour down the stretch to secure Grace full place money. Congrats to Walker & anyone who backed him! Results as follows;

B Grace     4th
S Garcia    M/C
B Snedeker  56th
A Baddeley  49th
J Vegas     22nd
C Tringale  84th

Event Tally  +2.75pts
Seasons Tally -20pts

'One to Trade' Ryan Moore performed well over the first 2 rounds before fading away but hit the target price of 130 so a good result there.

Travelers Selections

Paul Casey   30-1 1/5 1st 7 1pt e/w
G Woodland   45-1 1/5 1st 7 1pt e/w
Ryan Moore   66-1 1/5 1st 7 1pt e/w
Brian Harman 66-1 1/4 1st 6 1pt e/w
John Curran  125-1 1/5 1st 7 1pt e/w

Good luck all!

Travelers 'One to Trade'.

Patrick Rodgers

Not been setting the world alight recently but a solid 32nd last time out. Just feel this course is suited to his big hitting & he did have a 63 at River Highlands last year in round 3. Currently trading around 290/300.

Travelers Results

Evening all, well ultimately a frustrating week with 3 players in Casey, Moore & Woodland all in with good place chances going in to Sunday all playing poorly. Results as follows;

P Casey    17th
R Moore    17th
G Woodland 38th
B Harman    M/C
J Curran    M/C

Event Tally   -10pts
Seasons Tally -30pts

The saving grace for the week was the performance of the 'Trader' Patrick Rodgers who had a great week & traded around 10. Shame I wasn't on him e/w as well!

John Deere Selections

On now to this week. A bit of a tricky one this in that there are some players near the top of the market who I would like to be on this week but can't bring myself to be at the prices, equally I'd rather be on the winner at short price than on a big priced loser. Ultimately have gone for just 4 this week with double points on Zach who I just cant leave out, even at the price. Selections as follows;

Z Johnson   15-2 2pts e/w
R Moore     20-1 1pt e/w
W Bryan     40-1 1pt e/w
P Rodgers   50-1 1pt e/w

All 1/4 odds first 6.

As always good luck all!

[b]John Deere 'One to Trade'.[/b]

Tough to find someone in the over 200 bracket this week but have settled on Stuart Appleby. Has been quietly turning his game around of late, has a couple of decent efforts on the track & has history of going well in events which require really low scoring. Outside of Fedex playoffs at moment so needs a couple of good weeks. Currently trading around 270-300.

Nice winner Sundog

John Deere Results

Cheers Albert Square, with weeks fast running out on the season i certainly need to get my skates on! Shame Bryan made a poor bogey at the easiest hole on the course [17] coming down the stretch, as otherwise there would have been some place money return on him as well. Can't complain though & a very solid performance from Moore. Think he is a man to keep on side now for the rest of the season. Results for the week as follows;

R Moore    1st!
Z Johnson  34th
P Rodgers  27th
W Bryan    8th

Event Tally   +17pts
Seasons Tally    -13pts

'One to Trade' Stuart Appleby started well & one more birdie down the stretch in round 1 would probably have seen him trade at the target price of 70, unfortunately though he traded at 100 but no lower and then never got going for the rest of the week.

I'm going to be away later on with iffy internet signal so it may be tomorrow before I post Wyndham selections, although will do best to post later today if I can.

Wyndham selections.  No rocket science from me this week. Ryan moore  25-1 1pte/w. Webb Simpson 25-1 1pt e/w. Bill Haas 28-1 1pt e/w. Scott brown 70-1 1pt e/w. Ben martin 1pt e/w 60-1. All 1/5 1st 7 apart from ben martin who I 1/4 1st 6.

Wyndham 'One to Trade'.

Derek Ernst - Has been making cuts of late & has played well in this last couple of years including opening with a 63 last year. Obviously his finest hour came up the road at Charlotte as well so seems to like the Carolina's. Currently trading around/just under 600.

Barclays selections.  Hi all still away but wanted to get this weeks selections up. Will post the results from whyndham later this week. Excuse messiness of this post, am posting from my phone. Selections as follows. Hideki matsuyama 1pt e/w 33-1 1/4 1st 5. B snedeker 40-1 1pt e/e 1/4 1st 5. Emilliano grillo 80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6. Ricky Barnes 1p e/w 150-1 1/4 1st 6. Shawn stefani 1pt e/w 300-1 1/5 1st 7. Hope that's legible! Good luck all.

Barclays one to trade. Ricky Barnes. Course form meets current form. Currently trading around 330.

Wyndham Results

Hi all, Wyndham results update as promised.

Ryan Moore    53rd
W Simspson    72nd
Bill Haas     22nd
Ben Martin    M/C
Scott Brown   33rd

Event Tally   -10pts
Seasons Tally    -23pts

One to trade Derek Ernst had a shocker!

Barclays Results

Morning all, well another case of 'the nearlys' with Grillo. Thought he could well get the job done around the turn but the 3 putt on 11 really derailed him & in the end it was a relief to pick up the full place money with the birdie at the last. Results for the week as follows.

H Matsuyama  M/C
B Snedeker   48th
E Grillo     2nd
R Barnes     53rd
S Stefani    64th

Event Tally   +11pts
Seasons Tally    -12pts

'One to trade' Ricky Barnes whilst having a shocker on Sunday did more than enough over the first 3 days from a trading point of view and traded as low as 60, so all in all when coupled with Grillo a decent week.

Good effort Sundog. Unlucky.

Deutsche Bank Selections

Cheers AS, hopefully we can get one over the line in the next 3 weeks to finish the season off well! With regards FedeX Play Offs I've always felt momentum comes in to it more than at any other time in season. Not uncommon to see a player get on a roll with Horschel the obvious example from a couple of yrs ago but there have also been plenty of others. With that in mind this weeks selections as follows.

P Reed          25-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
Justin Thomas   70-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
G Woodland      80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
Sean O'Hair     80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6
Charley Hoffman 80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 6

Good luck all!

Deutsche Bank 'One to Trade'.

Scott Piercy - Just a case that I feel he is a bit overpriced at the 260-300 he is currently trading at. Has a decent early tee time, played well last week & he has proven over the last season or two that he is more than capable now of mixing it with the big boys in big events.

Deutsche Bank Results

Morning All, happy in the end to salvage some place money with Reed this week. Had been hopeful for Woodland after 2 rounds but a bad 3rd round did for him. Results as follows;

P Reed     5th [Reed tied 5th with 2 others so shared 2 places with 3 people]
J Thomas   M/C
G Woodland 15th
S O'Hair   53rd
C Hoffman  M/C

Event Tally - 4.83pts
Seasons Tally - 16.83pts

One to Trade Piercy made the cut but not much else. Back later with BMW selections.

BMW Selections

So with two events left of the season the battle is on for me to 'beat the bookies'. Hopefully this week we can get ahead!

Tricky one this week as I'm struggling to see far beyond Rory therefore I am only going with 4 including him. I actually got the 6-1 earlier this morning on him but will post his price as always as of now. Selections as follows;

R McllRoy  11-2 4pts win
A Scott    18-1 1pt e/w
E Grillo   50-1 1pt e/w
G Woodland 66-1 1pt e/w

All e/w selections are 1/4 1st 5.

Good luck all!

BMW 'one to trade'.

Hudson Swafford - In really solid form at the moment & hits it the required country mile on this course. Has been available as high as 400 over past 24hrs but still think the current 310 or so is good value.

BMW Results

Well not the best of weeks in the BMW unfortunately with only a small shared place return for Scott to show. Results as follows;

R McllRoy  42nd
A Scott    4th [shared 2 places with 5 players]
E Grillo   32nd
G Woodland 24th

Event Tally - 7.8pts
Seasons Tally - 24.63pts

One to trade Hudson Swafford never threatened unfortunately.

All to play for at the Tour Championship!

Tour Championship Selections

Morning All. So it's all on the last week as to whether I can turn a profit on my main team selections for the 15/16 season. To be honest in all the years I've been doing this this is the first year where It's come down to the wire as to whether It's a winning year or not! In all the other years I've either had a winning year well wrapped up courtesy of a 100-1 winner etc or the couple of bad years I've had I've been well & truly down the pan barring a miracle last few weeks.

So then here's who I'm relying on for the big week. Getting them up early so as I get the best prices shown! Selections as follows;

Adam Scott     11-1 4pts Win
Bubba Watson   33-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
Ryan Moore     50-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
Roberto Castro 70-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 4

Good luck all!

Hi all,

Just to say no trader this week due to size of field.

Tour Championship Results

Afternoon All

Well the season ends with another near miss in a play off unfortunately. Wishful thinking quite probably but had a hunch through most of the round & even in the play off that Moore would win but obviously Rory's hole out at 16 changed everything in regulation & ultimately Moore's failure to birdie 18 more than once in 6 attempts through the week cost him. Was pleased to see him get the last Ryder Cup pick though & as I've seen stated by many people elsewhere had he not got the pick it would have made a complete mockery of the reason why the US team had held the last pick back. Even still I was half expecting DL3 to pick 'the gang member' Thomas but ultimately he had to go with Moore.

I will post later in the week a summary of my thoughts on the season & whether I will embark on this thread again for next season! Any comments in the meantime positive/negative etc & whether people have have found the thread interesting or not & would like me to keep going are welcome. Results for the week below;

Adam Scott     8th
Bubba Watson   10th
Ryan Moore     2nd
Roberto Castro 17th

Event Tally + 3.5pts
Seasons Tally - 21.13 pts

decision to drop rory for last week has probably cost you a positive season

such is golf betting

good luck whatever , but an enjoyable read, the more opinions we get on here
the better.

'Keep her lit' monkey

Good thread Sundog. With a couple of winners in the Trade selections taking care of the seasons loss. Hope you keep it going.

I've always enjoyed reading you posts Sundog and you have had some fantastic selections with the "One to trade" picks.  Keep it going for another season mate.

Morning All, I trust everyone enjoyed the Ryder Cup. A few weeks back I was pretty sure US would win & was considering a chunky wager [for me] on them but after the performance of most of their team in Tour Championship I got cold feet & didn't get on them. In the end I only had one bet all week which was yesterday on Stenson to beat Spieth so I'll happily settle for that.

Thanks for the positive comments above. Obviously any form of betting comes with a health warning & it's very easy to get in to "if only's" etc. Having said that I don't think the rub of the green went with me over the season in that my play off record was 0 from 4! These were Sneds early season in Hawaii, Lingmerth to Dufner in the Bob Hope [or whatever it's called now.], Lovemark, & Obviously Moore in the TC. The Lingmerth one particularly rankled me for a few weeks as that was on the back of Duf's shot on the rocks on the par 3 17th from memory! Conversely from memory all the winners I had won reasonably comfortably with no lucky chip in's etc. Obviously the 'if only' therefore would have been one winning play off for a winning season. Still, as I say I've long learned that you have to take the rough with the smooth & hopefully the chips will all fall my way on the tight ones next season.

The good news is that due to the success of my traders over the season [with Smylie & Billy Hurley the obvious highlights and shame I didn't have either of them in my main teams!] I have made money over the course of the year with the profit I made on the traders off setting my 21 point loss. Hopefully anyone else who decided to follow my selections has had the same result.

As those of you who read my original post will know the initial purpose of starting out the thread was with a view of eventually setting up a tipping website, however I'm yet to get round to this! My plan therefore is to start out with the thread for the 16-17 season again & if i do get my site going through the course of the season to go across to their. I am also planning to join twitter & post my selections on this for anyone who uses this.

Once again thanks to all those who have read the thread through the year & here's to a profitable 16-17 year!

Good to hear Sundog....some fantastic picks this year and look forward to reading your posts for next season.

good to hear sdm.

i too didnt unload on usa as much as i had planned.