Golf
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08 Apr 14
14:10
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Date Joined:
18 Nov 03
Hi folks, thought I'd share the love with a preview I drum up every year for the Majors.
It is Springtime, and the aroma of freshly mown lawns are overpowered by the stench of badly burnt fingers from the Grand National. Hopefully this email might help you get one half of the elusive Sporting Spring Double.
This year’s trip down Magnolia Lane to Augusta National Golf Club will be a weird one. For the first time in 20 years, Tiger Woods will not be participating to try and win the Green Jacket, as he is recovering from back surgery. On the downside, it is fair to say the first Major of the year has lost it’s allure somewhat, but, on the upside, at least that frees up around 99% of CBS’ television coverage for the 4 days, so the armchair golfer might learn a bit more about a few of the other players this week.
I will shower the fellow golfbores amongst you with some stats and weather reports for the week ahead after I have given my outright selections for the first Major of 2014.
Selections [to a 10 point staking plan]
Bubba Watson : 3 points win 2 points place @ 28/1
He was nearly double the odds when I made him my main selection in 2012, but I feel a lot more confident about him going into this week than I did when he beat Shrek in the play-off in 2012. This season he is No.1 for driving distance (317.7 yards average), and has a GiR of 70% (16th on Tour). Bubba has always been strong with these stats, but, more eye-catching is the fact he is 2nd on Tour this season for scrambling, and has sorted his twitchy putting from inside 5 foot with an enviable 98% strike rate (7th on Tour this year). The only potential banana skin we have is in his last tournament (Arnie Palmer Invitational). He withdrew after the first round, shooting an uncharacteristic 11 over par. He cited numerous ‘allergies taking over’. In true Bubba style, there is always going to be a worry when your money is down on him, it will never be a smooth ride. But, stripping out the shocker I mentioned earlier he has made the Top 10 in 3 of the 5 tournaments he has played in this season. I am taking the man with the allergies to beat the players with the injuries. He is my main selection this week.
Rory McIlroy : 2 points win @ 11/1
Mixed memories for Rors when he pulls up at Augusta. He had the tournament at his mercy in 2011, before crumbling to a painful 80 in his final round to finish T15. The bookies are out to get him by pushing his price out a few points before the start of this tournament, but a decent final round 65 at The Shell Houston Open over the weekend, plus 3 Top 10 (or 5 Top 20) finishes in 6 tournaments this season shows he is back in the groove. I would not say he is back to the stupendous form of 2011/12, but at 11/1 he deserves to be part of your staking plan. Tiger has missed four majors, and an Irishman has won them every time (Padraig Harrington twice, Rory once, Darren Clarke once). If this is going to be a recurring theme in 2014, there surely can only be one Irishman to seal the deal.
Jason Dufner : 1 point each way @ 50/1
The poker-faced pro from Ohio is a worthy inclusion this week. I would rather ask an alcoholic with hypothermia to sink a 3 foot putt rather than Dufner if my life depended on it, but the weird thing is, he more often than not follows a horror yip by draining a 20ft bomb on the next hole. That is the enigma that is Dufner. He seems to save his best form for the Majors and whilst his form is better at the US Open and USPGA tournaments, a T20, T24, T30 in his only 3 visits to Augusta clearly shows he enjoys playing here. Not that he would ever show it.
Sergio Garcia : 1 point win @ 25/1
If I had a penny for every time I have typed a certain Spaniard’s name as part of my staking plan…
Will this finally be the Major he closes out with a win under his belt and the Major monkey off his back? Well, there are more positives than normal to think he may well do so. Firstly, form. He has made 4 top 10 finishes in 6 starts this season and has a T11 and T16 for the other two tourneys. Second, the boy is in love, and he made no secret in telling the world it has been nothing but a positive for him on all fronts, especially his excellent form on the golf course. Lastly, there is no denying that Tiger, whether he is paired with Sergio, or just his mere presence at a tournament, gets under Sergio’s skin. It is an huge negative distraction for him, and the fact that a. Tiger is obviously not playing this week and b. Sergio has had 3 top 10 finishes in the 4 Majors where Tiger has not been playing, the vibes for one of golf’s most sensitive players can only be positive.
I speak for many when I say I would love to see him win a Major…and if he does then I only need him to win another Major at 25/1 for me to be flat on my book with him over the past 15 years.
Please note : Paddy Power and Stan James are going top 6 places this year, with most of the others going top 5 places.
Spray and Prays [small stakes, big prices]
Golfers chosen have either decent past form at the Masters or decent current form, but not necessarily both as they head to Augusta. Long-priced winners are more likely to come in at the US Open or The Open, but it won’t stop me having a scrap on the following players:
Bill Haas [100 on Betfair]
Graham DeLaet [110]
Marc Leishman [130]
Joost Luiten [390]
Other relevant information
Augusta has an injury list that only my beloved Arsenal could compete with this year:
Henrik Stenson (wrist), Phil Mickelson (oblique strain), Jason Day (thumb and back), Justin Rose (shoulder), Hunter Mahan (back), Brandt Snedeker (knee) Nick Watney (back) have all either been away from playing under tournament conditions or withdrawn from competitions this year with their injuries. Some of them sound like they are over it, others seem far from it.
It appears to me that the two most severe are Stenson’s wrist injury which has seen his stupendous form late last year come to a shuddering halt, and Jason Day’s thumb injury, where we have not seen him in a tourney since he won the WGC World Matchplay in February.
Three players at the Masters have a chance to replace Tiger Woods as No. 1 in the World.
Masters champion Adam Scott, who squandered a great shot at being No. 1 when he lost a three-shot lead at Bay Hill, would need to finish in a two-way tie for third this week at Augusta National.
Henrik Stenson (No. 3) would need at least a two-way tie for second at the Masters to become the first Swedish player to be World No.1.
Jason Day (No. 4) would have to win the Masters to have any shot at being ranked No.1 in the World.
It has been 15 years since a European winner has won at Augusta, Jose Maria Olazabal shooting 8 under par in 1999.
We have 24 Masters Rookies this year, with experts claiming this is the best chance of one winning since Fuzzy Zoeller became the 3rd golfer to win The Masters as a rookie in 1979. Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed and Harris English are the main hopes aiming to break the 35 year drought.
Justin Rose put into perspective the task the face making the cut, let alone winning the whole tournament. “You make the cut the first time going to Augusta, that’s a successful performance,” he said. “Certainly that’s how it was framed in my mind in 2003.”
The Aussies are having a superb season on the PGA Tour, even if Adam Scott did relinquish his 54 hole lead at the Arnold Palmer 2 weeks ago. Matt Jones, Steven Bowditch and John Senden have all won 3 of the past 4 PGA Tour tournaments, with Jason Day winning the WGC World Matchplay in February. Another point to note is that all the other US PGA Tournaments this season have been won by an American.
Weather Report
The weather has already played it’s part before the tournament has even started. Monday’s practice day was abandoned by 10am, thunder and lightning hit Augusta.
Thankfully the forecast looks better for the rest of the week:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/augusta-ga/30901/daily-weather-forecast/328218
…..and a low pollen count too. No excuses now, Bubba!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/augusta-ga/30901/allergies-daily-forecast/328218
Clearly, any kind of interruption to a practice round is especially a negative for the 24 rookies, who must be desperate to get out onto the course and see what they can learn before Thursday morning.
Golf tipsters, stats sites
http://www.tour-tips.com/index.htm : Number One website out there for golf stats and views, subscription only.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pubkey=0Ajc8GgQGM23DdFdTRmktTUc2UmRCajdqYTl2ZW1falE&output=html
: Superb ready reckoner showing Masters form and current form for the field.
http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/585/9254465/sergio-ready-to-banish-demons
http://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/
Steve Palmer of the Racing Post will give his customary in-depth preview on Wednesday.
Good luck!
Woz
It is Springtime, and the aroma of freshly mown lawns are overpowered by the stench of badly burnt fingers from the Grand National. Hopefully this email might help you get one half of the elusive Sporting Spring Double.
This year’s trip down Magnolia Lane to Augusta National Golf Club will be a weird one. For the first time in 20 years, Tiger Woods will not be participating to try and win the Green Jacket, as he is recovering from back surgery. On the downside, it is fair to say the first Major of the year has lost it’s allure somewhat, but, on the upside, at least that frees up around 99% of CBS’ television coverage for the 4 days, so the armchair golfer might learn a bit more about a few of the other players this week.
I will shower the fellow golfbores amongst you with some stats and weather reports for the week ahead after I have given my outright selections for the first Major of 2014.
Selections [to a 10 point staking plan]
Bubba Watson : 3 points win 2 points place @ 28/1
He was nearly double the odds when I made him my main selection in 2012, but I feel a lot more confident about him going into this week than I did when he beat Shrek in the play-off in 2012. This season he is No.1 for driving distance (317.7 yards average), and has a GiR of 70% (16th on Tour). Bubba has always been strong with these stats, but, more eye-catching is the fact he is 2nd on Tour this season for scrambling, and has sorted his twitchy putting from inside 5 foot with an enviable 98% strike rate (7th on Tour this year). The only potential banana skin we have is in his last tournament (Arnie Palmer Invitational). He withdrew after the first round, shooting an uncharacteristic 11 over par. He cited numerous ‘allergies taking over’. In true Bubba style, there is always going to be a worry when your money is down on him, it will never be a smooth ride. But, stripping out the shocker I mentioned earlier he has made the Top 10 in 3 of the 5 tournaments he has played in this season. I am taking the man with the allergies to beat the players with the injuries. He is my main selection this week.
Rory McIlroy : 2 points win @ 11/1
Mixed memories for Rors when he pulls up at Augusta. He had the tournament at his mercy in 2011, before crumbling to a painful 80 in his final round to finish T15. The bookies are out to get him by pushing his price out a few points before the start of this tournament, but a decent final round 65 at The Shell Houston Open over the weekend, plus 3 Top 10 (or 5 Top 20) finishes in 6 tournaments this season shows he is back in the groove. I would not say he is back to the stupendous form of 2011/12, but at 11/1 he deserves to be part of your staking plan. Tiger has missed four majors, and an Irishman has won them every time (Padraig Harrington twice, Rory once, Darren Clarke once). If this is going to be a recurring theme in 2014, there surely can only be one Irishman to seal the deal.
Jason Dufner : 1 point each way @ 50/1
The poker-faced pro from Ohio is a worthy inclusion this week. I would rather ask an alcoholic with hypothermia to sink a 3 foot putt rather than Dufner if my life depended on it, but the weird thing is, he more often than not follows a horror yip by draining a 20ft bomb on the next hole. That is the enigma that is Dufner. He seems to save his best form for the Majors and whilst his form is better at the US Open and USPGA tournaments, a T20, T24, T30 in his only 3 visits to Augusta clearly shows he enjoys playing here. Not that he would ever show it.
Sergio Garcia : 1 point win @ 25/1
If I had a penny for every time I have typed a certain Spaniard’s name as part of my staking plan…
Will this finally be the Major he closes out with a win under his belt and the Major monkey off his back? Well, there are more positives than normal to think he may well do so. Firstly, form. He has made 4 top 10 finishes in 6 starts this season and has a T11 and T16 for the other two tourneys. Second, the boy is in love, and he made no secret in telling the world it has been nothing but a positive for him on all fronts, especially his excellent form on the golf course. Lastly, there is no denying that Tiger, whether he is paired with Sergio, or just his mere presence at a tournament, gets under Sergio’s skin. It is an huge negative distraction for him, and the fact that a. Tiger is obviously not playing this week and b. Sergio has had 3 top 10 finishes in the 4 Majors where Tiger has not been playing, the vibes for one of golf’s most sensitive players can only be positive.
I speak for many when I say I would love to see him win a Major…and if he does then I only need him to win another Major at 25/1 for me to be flat on my book with him over the past 15 years.
Please note : Paddy Power and Stan James are going top 6 places this year, with most of the others going top 5 places.
Spray and Prays [small stakes, big prices]
Golfers chosen have either decent past form at the Masters or decent current form, but not necessarily both as they head to Augusta. Long-priced winners are more likely to come in at the US Open or The Open, but it won’t stop me having a scrap on the following players:
Bill Haas [100 on Betfair]
Graham DeLaet [110]
Marc Leishman [130]
Joost Luiten [390]
Other relevant information
Augusta has an injury list that only my beloved Arsenal could compete with this year:
Henrik Stenson (wrist), Phil Mickelson (oblique strain), Jason Day (thumb and back), Justin Rose (shoulder), Hunter Mahan (back), Brandt Snedeker (knee) Nick Watney (back) have all either been away from playing under tournament conditions or withdrawn from competitions this year with their injuries. Some of them sound like they are over it, others seem far from it.
It appears to me that the two most severe are Stenson’s wrist injury which has seen his stupendous form late last year come to a shuddering halt, and Jason Day’s thumb injury, where we have not seen him in a tourney since he won the WGC World Matchplay in February.
Three players at the Masters have a chance to replace Tiger Woods as No. 1 in the World.
Masters champion Adam Scott, who squandered a great shot at being No. 1 when he lost a three-shot lead at Bay Hill, would need to finish in a two-way tie for third this week at Augusta National.
Henrik Stenson (No. 3) would need at least a two-way tie for second at the Masters to become the first Swedish player to be World No.1.
Jason Day (No. 4) would have to win the Masters to have any shot at being ranked No.1 in the World.
It has been 15 years since a European winner has won at Augusta, Jose Maria Olazabal shooting 8 under par in 1999.
We have 24 Masters Rookies this year, with experts claiming this is the best chance of one winning since Fuzzy Zoeller became the 3rd golfer to win The Masters as a rookie in 1979. Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed and Harris English are the main hopes aiming to break the 35 year drought.
Justin Rose put into perspective the task the face making the cut, let alone winning the whole tournament. “You make the cut the first time going to Augusta, that’s a successful performance,” he said. “Certainly that’s how it was framed in my mind in 2003.”
The Aussies are having a superb season on the PGA Tour, even if Adam Scott did relinquish his 54 hole lead at the Arnold Palmer 2 weeks ago. Matt Jones, Steven Bowditch and John Senden have all won 3 of the past 4 PGA Tour tournaments, with Jason Day winning the WGC World Matchplay in February. Another point to note is that all the other US PGA Tournaments this season have been won by an American.
Weather Report
The weather has already played it’s part before the tournament has even started. Monday’s practice day was abandoned by 10am, thunder and lightning hit Augusta.
Thankfully the forecast looks better for the rest of the week:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/augusta-ga/30901/daily-weather-forecast/328218
…..and a low pollen count too. No excuses now, Bubba!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/augusta-ga/30901/allergies-daily-forecast/328218
Clearly, any kind of interruption to a practice round is especially a negative for the 24 rookies, who must be desperate to get out onto the course and see what they can learn before Thursday morning.
Golf tipsters, stats sites
http://www.tour-tips.com/index.htm : Number One website out there for golf stats and views, subscription only.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pubkey=0Ajc8GgQGM23DdFdTRmktTUc2UmRCajdqYTl2ZW1falE&output=html
: Superb ready reckoner showing Masters form and current form for the field.
http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/585/9254465/sergio-ready-to-banish-demons
http://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/
Steve Palmer of the Racing Post will give his customary in-depth preview on Wednesday.
Good luck!
Woz
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Replies: 27
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awesome post
thx  |
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Ken, may I ask, where the feck are you for the rest of the golfing season
  Superb write up. Well written, good info with some funnies to top it off. I would rather ask an alcoholic with hypothermia to sink a 3 foot putt rather than Dufner if my life depended on it Consider this line... stolen. |
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top stuff
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Good write-up.
Bubba's certainly been playing well lately. And win or lose, he's always fun to watch. |
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Well done ken great preview and enjoyable to read too, especially good research on the recent injuries, often overlooked by most punters, but important to know none the less. Good luck this week.
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WD Mr Dodd.....some excellent points to consider.....(beware the injured golfer, especially as far as punting is concerned).
Phil live in the press tent now..... http://cricfree.tv/live-golf-streaming-ch2.php |
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Excellent post and thoroughly agree with Garcia comments though if he's in the lead with 9 to go it will be some roller coaster.
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A great read Ken, some top picks as well. Gl mate
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Thanks for the kind comments... more than what I got from my work colleagues!
Much appreciated. Good luck all. Woz |
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the golf forum is the most polite
sort of like the game i guess |
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here's betfred thesis
Shaun Gorman Mickleson---all his wins have come in even numbered years  |
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I would never want to sound like a golfstat snob...but that is awful!
Shaun Gormless |
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Good read Ken, I see one of your outsiders Bill Haas is up on top now. Good luck
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Bubba going well. Only just seen this, cracking writeup.
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im a golfer but rarely bet on it, so just followed you ken, and did bubba e/w. so far so good!
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I'm aftertiming. Congratulations. You have a few nice tips running well.
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bubba has impressed me the most---totally relaxed on the course
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-6 wouldn't of been a surprise from bubba yesterday couple of eagle putts just missed on the back nine and a fair few birdie putts too, was very impressed.
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Believe!
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bubba looking a great call
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THREW IT AWAY already ffs.
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brilliant call ken, I thank you
 made me some nice cash. |
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congrats win woz
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Only read the opening post tonight , very accurate assessment of Bubba this year . He has been different , and impressive , the only fly in the ointment was his withdrawal with "allergies " . Caused a drift against him on here . He has more control of his golf ball this year .
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Thanks folks, love seeing the man on the street smiling and the bookie on the high st crying.
Homework for Pinehurst already in progress! Good luck all. Woz |
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Don't worry about Pinehurst Ken, Harbour Town is this week.
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well done ken
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